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Negative Euro Area Interest Rates and Spillovers on Western Balkan Central Bank Policies and Instruments

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Negative Euro Area Interest Rates and Spillovers on Western Balkan Central Bank Policies and Instruments Bank of Albania International Monetary Fund NEGATIVE EURO AREA INTEREST RATES AND SPILLOVERS ON WESTERN BALKAN CENTRAL BANK POLICIES AND INSTRUMENTS The book represents the proceedings of the conference co-hosted by the Bank of Albania and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in Tirana on May 4-5, 2017. The conference was organized with the financial support of Switzerland. Edited by: Guido Della Valle, Erald Themeli, Romain Veyrune 1 ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution Published by: © Bank of Albania Address: Sheshi “Skënderbej”, Nr.1, Tirana, Albania Tel.: + 355 4 2419301/2/3; + 355 4 2419401/2/3 Fax: + 355 4 2419408 E-mail: [email protected] Reproduction is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged. Printed in: 300 copies Printed by: ISBN 978-9928-4453-9-1 The views expressed herein are of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the International Monetary Fund or Bank of Albania The organizers of the conference would like to express gratitude to Switzerland for the financial support provided and Enri Herri of Bank of Albania and Anna Vlassova of the International Monetary Fund for the invaluable logistical support provided for the organization of the conference. 2 ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution CONTENTS INTRODUCTION 9 Guido Della Valle, Erald Themeli, Romain Veyrune CONFERENCE AGENDA 17 WELCOME ADDRESSES 23 Gent Sejko, Bank of Albania, Governor 25 Christoph Graf, Ambassador of Switzerland in Albania 31 Miguel Savastano, International Monetary Fund, Monetary and Capital Markets Department, Deputy Director 35 FIRST SESSION: 39 NEGATIVE EURO AREA INTEREST RATES AND FINANCIAL STABILITY: A FIRST LOOK BEYOND THE WESTERN BALKANS AND GENERAL TRENDS Moderator: Klodion Shehu, Bank of Albania, Financial Stability Department, Director HOW DO INTEREST RATE DIFFERENTIALS IMPACT ON EUROIZATION? EVIDENCE FROM THE OENB EURO SURVEY 41 Thomas Scheiber and Julia Woerz, Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Foreign Research Division NEGATIVE EURO AREA INTEREST RATES AND EFFECTIVE DE-EUROIZATION STRATEGY 55 Romain Veyrune, International Monetary Fund, Senior Economist 3 ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution SECOND SESSION: 65 NEGATIVE EURO AREA INTEREST RATES AND FINANCIAL STABILITY IN WESTERN BALKAN ECONOMIES Moderator: Natasha Ahmetaj, Bank of Albania, Second Deputy Governor INTRODUCTORY REMARKS: PANEL ON “NEGATIVE EURO AREA INTEREST RATES AND FINANCIAL STABILITY IN WESTERN BALKAN ECONOMIES” 67 Natasha Ahmetaj, Bank of Albania, Second Deputy Governor IMPLICATIONS OF LOW INTEREST RATES FOR FINANCIAL STABILITY IN ALBANIA 69 Klodion Shehu, Bank of Albania, Financial Stability Department, Director WHAT IS OBSCURED BY AGGREGATE DATA IN THE CASE OF BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA? 85 Belma Čolaković, Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Chief Economist FINANCIAL STABILITY UNDER UNILATERAL EUROIZATION: THE CASE OF KOSOVO 93 Arben Mustafa, Central Bank of the Republic of Kosovo, Advisor to the Governor ECB NON-STANDARD MONETARY POLICY MEASURES AND FINANCIAL STABILITY IN WESTERN BALKAN ECONOMIES WITH EMPHASIS ON THE MONTENEGRO CASE 107 Milena Vučinić, Central Bank of Montenegro, Department for Financial Stability, Research and Statistics THIRD SESSION: 117 NEGATIVE EURO AREA INTEREST RATES AND RESERVE MANAGEMENT Moderator: Elisabeta Gjoni, Bank of Albania, First Deputy Governor INTRODUCTORY REMARKS: PANEL ON “NEGATIVE EURO AREA INTEREST RATES AND RESERVE MANAGEMENT” 119 Elisabeta Gjoni, Bank of Albania, First Deputy Governor ARE YOU PREPARED TO ASSUME THE RISK OF INCREASING EURO YIELDS? 123 Roberto de Beaufort Camargo, World Bank, Lead Financial Officer NEGATIVE EURO AREA INTEREST RATES AND RESERVE MANAGEMENT AT THE CENTRAL BANK OF ROMANIA 141 Victor Andrei, National Bank of Romania, Market Operations Department, Director 4 ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution IMPLEMENTATION OF THE NEW FX RESERVES INVESTMENT STRATEGY AT THE CENTRAL BANK OF HUNGARY 151 Sandor Ladányi, Magyar Nemzeti Bank, Foreign Exchange Reserves Management, Strategy Department FOURTH SESSION: 163 NEGATIVE EURO AREA INTEREST RATES AND RESERVE MANAGEMENT (CONTINUED) Moderator: Roberto de Beaufort Camargo, World Bank, Lead Financial Officer NEGATIVE EURO AREA INTEREST RATES AND SPILLOVERS ON WESTERN BALKAN CENTRAL BANK POLICIES AND INSTRUMENTS 165 Marian Gjermeni, Bank of Albania, Monetary Operations Department, Director FX RESERVE MANAGEMENT IN A NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES ENVIRONMENT: THE MACEDONIAN EXPERIENCE 181 Vesna Hristovska, National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia, Financial Market Operations Department FIFTH SESSION: 197 NEGATIVE EURO AREA INTEREST RATES AND MONETARY POLICY IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE EURO AREA Moderator: Guido Della Valle, International Monetary Fund, Monetary Policy Advisor INTRODUCTORY REMARKS: PANEL ON “NEGATIVE EURO AREA INTEREST RATES AND MONETARY POLICY IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE EURO AREA” 199 Guido Della Valle, International Monetary Fund, Monetary Policy Advisor MONETARY POLICY IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE EURO AREA: WHAT CHANGES WITH NEGATIVE EURO AREA RATES? 203 Ryan Banerjee, Bank for International Settlement, Senior Economist MONETARY POLICY BELOW THE ZERO LOWER BOUND 217 Ulrich Bindseil, European Central Bank, Market Operations, Director General MONETARY POLICY BELOW THE ZERO LOWER BOUND 233 Thomas Moser, Swiss National Bank, Alternate Member of the Governing Board MONETARY POLICY AND EXCHANGE RATE COMMITMENT IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC 245 Dana Hajkova, Czech National Bank, Advisor to the Bank Board 5 ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution NON-STANDARD MONETARY POLICY IN A LOW INTEREST RATE ENVIRONMENT 255 Daniel Felcser, Magyar Nemzeti Bank, Monetary Strategy Department, Senior Economic Analyst SIXTH SESSION: 265 NEGATIVE EURO AREA INTEREST RATES AND MONETARY POLICY IN THE WESTERN BALKANS Moderator: Erald Themeli, Bank of Albania, Monetary Policy Department, Director SPILLOVERS OF THE ECB’S NON-STANDARD MONETARY POLICY MEASURES ON SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE 267 Keynote address: Isabella Moder, European Central Bank, Economist ESTIMATING THE LOWER POLICY RATE BOUND IN A EUROIZED ECONOMY 275 Guido Della Valle, International Monetary Fund, Monetary Policy Advisor IMPLICATIONS FROM THE LOOSE ECB MONETARY POLICY FOR THE REGION (FOCUS ON MACEDONIA) 289 Anita Angelovska Bezhoska, National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia, Vice Governor CONDUCT OF MONETARY POLICY WITH FINANCIAL STABILITY ISSUES AND A CHALLENGING ENVIRONMENT: THE CASE OF SERBIA 301 Branislav Zoroja, National Bank of Serbia, Monetary Operations Department, General Manager CONCLUDING REMARKS 311 Miguel Savastano, International Monetary Fund, Monetary and Capital Markets Department, Deputy Director SPEAKERS’ BIOS 317 6 ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution This page intentionally left blank ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution This page intentionally left blank ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution INTRODUCTION Guido Della Valle, Erald Themeli, Romain Veyrune WESTERN BALKANS’ CENTRAL BANKS CONFERENCE ON “NEGATIVE EURO AREA INTEREST RATES AND SPILLOVERS ON WESTERN BALKAN CENTRAL BANK POLICIES AND INSTRUMENTS” Western Balkans are an economic area of over 20 million people with six states - Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, FYR of Macedonia, Kosovo, Montenegro, and Serbia – which all aspire to membership in the European Union (EU) and enjoy “candidate” or “potential candidate” status in the EU accession process. The countries in the region have a history of conflicts evidenced by the term “Balkanization,” which, based on the Balkan peninsula experience in the 19th and the beginning of the 20th century, is used to describe the process of fragmentation of a region or state into smaller regions or states that are often uncooperative with one another. Notwithstanding this past, the countries in the region share common economic objectives, challenges, and opportunities at the present. They all aim to promote peace and prosperity in the region. They have all faced the challenge of a transition to a market economy. They all have strong economic and financial ties to the EU as a whole and to the euro area in particular via different economic, trade, financial, and monetary channels. They all have a common objective of joining the EU first and the euro area later. They are faced with similar economic, financial stability, and monetary policy challenges. To name a few of these common challenges: despite recent growth acceleration, for the past eight years growth 9 ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution rates have been in low single digits at best. Supplies of foreign credit and capital from private sources – plentiful in the pre-crisis years – have largely dried up, and EU-headquartered banks, which have a large presence in the Western Balkans, are coping with a new global regulatory context in which they are encouraged to deleverage and reduce cross-country exposure. At the same time, governments face severe limits in what they can do to tackle these problems. The fiscal space for Keynesian-style public spending projects is limited, while monetary policy is naturally constrained in these small open economies, which all have a high degree of euroization. There are several initiatives aimed at revitalizing multilateral ties throughout the Western Balkans and improving regional cooperation on the issue of economic development. Still there is scope for further initiatives to exchange views and experiences on the responses given to common challenges, enhance cooperation,
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