Global Strategy Quadrant March 15, 2018 Steven Wieting Chief Investment Fear of the Month Club Strategist +1-212-559-0499 Stay brave, stay bullish, but stay diversified across regions and asset classes
[email protected] US equity prices rose more than earnings in the last two years. This has set the stage for Malcolm Spittler some valuation compression amid strong earnings growth in 2018. Nonetheless, we expect Maya Issa US corporate profits to rise about 20% year-on-year in the 1Q 2018 reporting period Global Investment which begins in less than a month. This should support recovery in US equities. Strategy Across the world, share prices are now trailing behind earnings gains. As such, the Citi Ken Peng Private Bank Global Investment Committee maintained our 4% overweight in Global Catherine Cheung Equities, concentrated in non-US markets, with global valuations at a discount to the US. Asia Investment Strategy US President Donald Trump campaigned in 2016 on tax cuts and domestic protectionism, and is now poised to deliver on both. As cross-border trade has long risen as a proportion Jeffrey Sacks of world economic activity, trade disruptions would now pose a larger economic risk. Shan Gnanendran EMEA Investment There is much room to negotiate and mitigate impact, as recent exceptions from steel and Strategy aluminum tariffs for particular countries illustrate. But how far some world leaders may go in retaliatory trade measures against the US is unclear. The next few months might see Jorge Amato heightened concerns, particularly in relation to trade between the US and China.