2.1 Climate and World Winegrape Growing Regions
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Portland State University PDXScholar Dissertations and Theses Dissertations and Theses Summer 10-2-2013 Spatial Analysis of Climate and Winegrape Production in Winegrape Growing Regions of Oregon, United States of America Willow Devin Campbell Portland State University Let us know how access to this document benefits ouy . Follow this and additional works at: https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/open_access_etds Part of the Viticulture and Oenology Commons Recommended Citation Campbell, Willow Devin, "Spatial Analysis of Climate and Winegrape Production in Winegrape Growing Regions of Oregon, United States of America" (2013). Dissertations and Theses. Paper 1442. 10.15760/etd.1441 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access. It has been accepted for inclusion in Dissertations and Theses by an authorized administrator of PDXScholar. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Spatial Analysis of Climate and Winegrape Production in Winegrape Growing Regions of Oregon, United States of America by Willow Devin Campbell A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Geography Thesis Committee: Hejunn Chang, Advisor Martha Works David Banis Portland State University 2013 Willow Devin Campbell i Abstract American Viticultural Areas (AVAs) are susceptible to small variations in climate and microclimates and are found within a narrow latitudinal range of prime climate conditions. These AVAs are geographically determined based on the best soil, climate, precipitation and temperature combinations for specific winegrape regions. As climate change continues to alter the local weather and the greater climate region of the Western United States, winegrape growing regions in Oregon are being affected. In an effort to determine what the pattern of change is, and compare previous studies of climate change using climate indices, a comparative study based in part on prior research was conducted. Using 800 meter resolution Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) climate datasets, four individual climate indices were analyzed for statistical correlation with the climate data. These climate indices are: growing degree-days (GDD), the average growing season temperatures (GST), Huglin Index (HI) and the biologically effective degree-day (BEDD). Based on currently available data for this research, these climate indices were statistically analyzed during the years 2000 to 2010. A further avenue of research included a statistical analysis of the reported winegrape production, although this data was available only at an aggregated county- level. Results show that all four climate indices exhibit statistical significance, although the inclusion of the winegrape production data exhibited no statistical significance for ii many of the analyses, most likely due to subjective and aggregated data, few did result in significance with the climate indices. The research discussed here confirms the accuracy of the four climate indices and suggest that a longer time frame, coupled with less aggregated and subjective winegrape production data could produce interesting results in future research on the results of climate indices in winegrape growing regions. iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to give a sincere thanks to my advisor, Dr. Heejun Chang, for his lasting commitment over the progression of my thesis research. His dedication through the course of these years, to my studies, this thesis and me is infinitely valued. I would like to thank Dr. Gregory Jones for whom, without his dedication and profound knowledge of the subject, this thesis would not have been possible. His enthusiasm and availability, despite broad geographic differences, to offer guidance and support is immeasurable and greatly appreciated. In addition to Heejun and Greg, I would like to thank the other members of my committee, Dr. Martha Works and David Banis, for their continued support and time they have allotted for this manuscript. I would like to say a special thank you to my cohort, especially Kate Clark and Cale Richards, for being there during the late nights and the early mornings, to commiserate the downs and celebrate the highs. Cheers to victory laps. Karin Waller, I owe you a prodigious thank you. Without you to take the time out of your day to guide an overwhelmed, sleep-deprived graduate student, I would have never made it past that first term. Thank you, Karin. iv More than anything, I would like to give a heartfelt thank you to my friends and family for all of their overwhelming support and love while pursuing my master’s degree. Thank you for seeing in me what, at times, I could not see in myself and for encouraging me to keep going. I would like to especially thank Eric Crum for his unwavering patience, encouragement and love while completing my thesis. Lots of lost adventure filled weekends and relaxing evenings are on the horizon. Thank you, Eric. v TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS .................................................................................................................... iiii LIST OF TABLES………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….vii LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................................viiii GLOSSARY……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………x Chapter One – Introduction ............................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Background .................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Research Objectives ....................................................................................................... 3 Chapter Two - Climate and winegrape growing regions……………………………………………………………...5 2.1 Climate and world winegrape growing regions ............................................................ 5 2.2 Climate and Oregon winegrape growing regions ......................................................... 6 2.3 Oregon AVA Characteristics.......................................................................................... 7 2.3.1 Willamette Valley ............................................................................................... 9 2.3.2 Columbia Gorge ............................................................................................... 10 2.3.3 Columbia Valley ............................................................................................... 11 2.3.4 Snake River Valley ............................................................................................ 11 2.3.5 Southern Oregon ............................................................................................. 12 Chapter Three - Materials and Methods………………………….………………………………………………………..13 3.1 Data ............................................................................................................................. 13 3.1.1 Wine production data ....................................................................................... 13 3.1.2 Climate data………………………………………….……………………………………………………...13 3.2 Climate Indices ............................................................................................................ 15 3.2.1 Growing season temperature .......................................................................... 15 3.2.2 Growing degree day ......................................................................................... 18 3.2.3 Huglin index ..................................................................................................... 19 vi 3.2.4 Biologically effictive degree day ...................................................................... 21 3.3 Data processing ........................................................................................................... 21 3.4 Statistical analysis ....................................................................................................... 25 Chapter Four – Results……………………………..…………………………………………………….………………………..26 4.1 Correlation of climate indices and wingrape production at the Oregon County Scale ........................................................................................................................................... 47 4.2 Correlation at the Oregon winegrape growing region scale ....................................... 30 4.2.1 Willamette Valley winegrape growing region .................................................. 31 4.2.2 Columbia Gorge winegrape growing region ..................................................... 32 4.2.3 Columbia Valley winegrape growing region ..................................................... 34 4.2.4 Snake River Valley winegrape growing region .................................................. 36 4.2.5 Southern Oregon winegrape growing region ……..…………………………………………37 4.3 Previous reseach comparison ..................................................................................... 38 Chapter Five - Discussion and conclusions……………………………………………………………………….……….47 REFERENCES…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….……….55 vii LIST OF TABLES Table 1 Oregon Winegrape growning regions elavations and area characteristics……….…8 Table 2: Distribution of American Viticultural Areas per Oregon County………………..…….19 Table 3: Oregon American Viticultural Area (AVA) 2000-2010 PRISM-calculated quantile statistics for growing season average temperature (GST, °C), growing degree-days