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A Break-Down Model for Cost Estimation of Composites a Thesis A Break-Down Model for Cost Estimation of Composites A thesis presented to the faculty of the Russ College of Engineering and Technology of Ohio University In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree Master of Science Aniruddha V. Joshi August 2018 © 2018 Aniruddha V. Joshi. All Rights Reserved. 2 This thesis titled A Break-Down Model for Cost Estimation of Composites by ANIRUDDHA V. JOSHI has been approved for the Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering and the Russ College of Engineering and Technology by Dale Masel Associate Professor of Industrial and Systems Engineering Dennis Irwin Dean, Russ College of Engineering and Technology 3 ABSTRACT JOSHI, ANIRUDDHA V., M.S., August 2018, Industrial and Systems Engineering A Break-Down Model for Cost Estimation of Composites Director of Thesis: Dale Masel With the development of cheaper composite materials and more efficient manufacturing processes, there has been a steady growth in the applications as well as the interest of small and medium scale enterprises to manufacture composite parts. Current methods for cost estimation of composites require many inputs and CAD models. The methodology developed in this thesis will enable manufacturers and designers to obtain a preliminary cost estimate for composite parts based on minimum information during the early design stages. The total cost estimate calculated in this thesis follows the break-down approach where the total cost is broken down into its primary and secondary cost components. The break-down model follows a hierarchical structure of calculating the usage of materials and time, which are at a lower level, based on the user inputs and then using these lower level costs to calculate the upper level cost estimates. The results show the implementation of the methodology in an Excel tool which can be used to estimate costs of different parts using different materials and processes. The comparison between the actual and estimates cost for a test composite part shows an error of 8.58% with a 95% probability that the actual cost would be in a range of $150 above or below the estimate. 4 DEDICATION Dedicated to my family . 5 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I am deeply indebted to my advisor Dr. Dale Masel for all his guidance during the two years of my master’s degree. Dr Masel’s dedication and passion for his work and research has really inspired me to become a better engineering professional. His extraordinary patience, great attention to detail and encouragement have helped bring out the best both in me and in my thesis. I’m am so grateful to have had Dr Masel as my mentor and I consider these two years as the most pivotal years of my life. I would also like to thank my thesis committee members Dr. Gary Weckman, Dr. David Koonce and Dr. Travis Davidson for their technical expertise and guidance during my thesis. A special thankyou to my fellow research assistant and friend Aditya Mahadik for being a massive support and my pillar of strength throughout the course of this research. Furthermore, I would like to thank all my friends Tejas, Ajinkya, Mayur, Manish, Akkshhey, Prakash, Sidharth, Abhishek, Chandrahas, Akash and Brent for their continual help and support. I would also like to thank everyone, who in any way has helped me during this journey. Lastly and most importantly I would like to thank my parents and my sister. Their unwavering support and confidence in me have been a savior in all the difficult times during these two years. My mom Dr Shruti Joshi has truly been a source of great inspiration in my life and she always taught me to dream big and believe in those dreams. Without her unwavering love, support and her teachings none of this would ever have been possible. Thanks Mom!!! 6 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Abstract ...........................................................................................................................3 Dedication .......................................................................................................................4 Acknowledgments ...........................................................................................................5 List of Tables...................................................................................................................8 List of Figures .................................................................................................................9 Chapter 1: Introduction .................................................................................................. 10 1.1 Background .................................................................................................. 10 1.2 Motivation.................................................................................................... 12 1.3 Objective ...................................................................................................... 14 Chapter 2: Literature Review ......................................................................................... 17 2.1Cost Estimation Methods .................................................................................... 17 2.1.1Intuitive Method ......................................................................................... 18 2.1.2 Analogical Method .................................................................................... 19 2.1.3 Parametric Methods ................................................................................... 20 2.1.4 Analytical Method ..................................................................................... 21 2.2 Cost Estimation of Composites .......................................................................... 22 2.3 Cost Estimation Software Tools ......................................................................... 28 2.3.1 Advanced Composite Cost Estimating Manual .......................................... 28 2.3.2 Federated Intelligent Production Environment ........................................... 29 2.3.3 Cost Offering Method for Affordable Propulsion Engineering Acquisition and Test ............................................................................................................. 30 2.3.4 SEER by Galorath ..................................................................................... 31 Chapter 3: Methodology ................................................................................................ 33 3.1 Approach ........................................................................................................... 33 3.2 Material Cost ..................................................................................................... 35 3.3 Labor Cost ......................................................................................................... 39 3.4 Equipment Cost ................................................................................................. 46 3.5 Tooling Cost ...................................................................................................... 50 3.5.1 Material Cost of Mold ............................................................................... 51 3.5.2 Machine Cost of Mold ............................................................................... 53 7 3.5.3 Labor Cost of Mold ................................................................................... 56 3.6 Probability Model .............................................................................................. 58 CHAPTER 4: Results .................................................................................................... 69 4.1 Implementation .................................................................................................. 69 4.1.1 Design ....................................................................................................... 69 4.2 Cost Estimate Validation .................................................................................... 85 4.2.1 Application of Com-CET .......................................................................... 91 4.3 Uncertainty Analysis .......................................................................................... 96 Chapter 5: Conclusions ................................................................................................ 105 5.1 Summary of Results ......................................................................................... 105 5.2 Future Work ..................................................................................................... 107 References ................................................................................................................... 108 Appendix ..................................................................................................................... 114 8 LIST OF TABLES Page Table 1 Time equations for primitive steps for composite manufacturing ....................... 41 Table 2 Cumulative probability for select values of x and y ............................................ 66 Table 3 Joint cumulative probabilities F(x, y) and joint probabilities P(x, y) .................. 66 Table 4 Joint probabilities for values of x and y ............................................................. 67 Table 5 Part (A) & Part (B) dimensions ......................................................................... 85 Table 6 Comparison of actual and estimated labor hours for Part (A) ............................ 86 Table 7 Cost comparison for part (A) ...........................................................................
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