Planning for Climate Change
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www.itpower.co.uk Planning for Climate Change: Executive Summary May 2008 The Planning for Climate Change Project was initiated in December 2007 to provide evidence to underpin the preparation of future planning policy relating to climate change in seven local authority areas of Leicestershire and Rutland: Blaby District Council, Harborough District Council, Hinckley and Bosworth District Council, Melton Borough Council, North West District Council, Oadby and Wigston Borough Council and Rutland County Council. There are three key parts to the project: 1) Climate Change Assessment of Core Strategy Strategic Options 2) Renewable Energy Opportunities œ Quantification of the potential for renewable energy in each of the seven local authority areas 3) Energy Efficiency Recommendations for New Developments - An assessment of the extent that it may be technically and economically possible to expect new buildings to reduce their carbon dioxide emissions beyond the requirements of the Building Regulations. Climate Change Assessment of Development options Scientific evidence leaves us in no doubt that human activity is the primary driver of the observed changes in climate. The main human influence on global climate is emissions of the key greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide (CO2), methane and nitrous oxide. Energy use in buildings accounts for 40% of the UK‘s total greenhouse gas emissions1. Emissions resulting from personal transport also make an important contribution. Local planning policies offer the opportunity to reduce these emissions and to ensure opportunities for sustainable energy are maximised. Climate change is expected to result in more extreme weather events such as droughts and flooding including within the East Midlands region where by 2059 there could be up to 13% more rainfall in winter and 18% less rainfall in summer. The development options for each local authority were assessed for their impact on climate change. The assessment looked at Energy use in buildings; Potential for renewable energy generation; Transport and associated emissions; Water use; Surface water run off; Waste generated and associated emissions. Results are presented according to three main scenarios: Scenario 1 represents expected national policy in terms of evolution of building regulations for energy and water use and current waste plans in place for Leicestershire and Rutland. Scenarios 2 and 3 are suggested approaches with improved energy standards in buildings between now and 2016, initiatives to reduce emissions from transport and increased recycling beyond the 60% target by 2017 for Leicestershire and 50% by 2020 in Rutland. Results were generated for each local authority, by scenario and by development option. Emissions from transport differ between development location and emissions from waste differ between local authority as recycling rates vary. Figure 1 shows an example set of results for household emissions per year. 1 DUKES 2003 www.itpower.co.uk ) r a e 7.00 y / s e n 6.00 n o t ( d l o 5.00 h e s u o 4.00 Waste (CO2 equivalent) h r e Transport (average) p 3.00 Energy s n o i s s i 2.00 m e 2 O 1.00 C e g a r 0.00 e v A Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 igure 1: Example results showing average CO2 emissions per household per year It is important to understand that future emissions depend on the design of the buildings, determined at its time of construction. The table below shows the emissions for each scenario for a period of 60 years (new homes being built today are designed for a minimum lifetime of 60 years or more) for a thousand homes (most of the authorities are planning for several thousand homes over the plan period (2008-2026)). Table 1: Total emissions for 1000 homes over 60 years Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Energy (CO2) (tonnes) 100 130 87 610 84 130 Transport (CO2) (tonnes) 218 560 207 635 183 590 Waste (CO2 equivalent) (tonnes) 46 890 39 465 35 520 Total greenhouse gas (tonnes CO2) 365 580 334 705 303 240 Water use was also considered within the assessment. The East Midlands Water Resources Strategy reflects the fact that the region is one of the driest parts of the UK. The strategy recommends that future developments in the East Midlands should recognise the limited availability of water and incorporate efficiency measures and sustainable drainage systems at the planning stage. Water efficient fittings can be installed at minimal additional costs. The results for water use per household are shown in Table 2. Table 2: Annual water use per household Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 3 Average water usage (m per year) 108 99 93 www.itpower.co.uk Renewable Energy Opportunities The renewable energy opportunities assessment estimated the potential for large wind, hydro, biomass, solar photovoltaics, solar water heating, ground source heat pumps and small wind. Maps are provided in the case of wind, biomass and hydro. The potential for building integrated renewable energy has been quantified in terms of retro fit and new build opportunities. Three scenarios were developed. For hydro and wind energy a series of sites were identified and their potential for development considered. The three scenarios are increasingly optimistic in terms of the potential for development. For the building integrated technologies the three scenarios present increasing percentages of buildings installing microgeneration. This is difficult to predict accurately since the total potential for renewable energy on existing buildings is large but the realisation of the potential depends on local and national policies. Currently relatively little is being done to encourage retro-fitting of building integrated renewables. Table 3: Percentage of existing buildings installing microgeneration [2008-2009] [2010-2012] [2013-2015] After 2016 Scenario Low 0.1% 0.2% 2.5% 5.0% Medium 1.0% 2.5% 5.0% 10.0% High 2.5% 5.0% 10.0% 25.0% The figures below present the results of the assessment for the three scenarios. It is clear that the building integrated technologies represent the greatest potential for renewable energy, apart from in Harborough, which of the seven authorities has the greatest potential for wind. Existing buildings represent between 20% and 74% of the estimated potential for building integrated renewables, depending on the type of building considered and the scenario. Renewable Energy Opportunities: Low Scenario 20 Wind 18 Hydro 16 14 Anerobic digestion of cattle and pig slurry 12 Straw and annual energy crops W M 10 Building integrated 8 (electric) Building integrated 6 (thermal) 4 2 0 Blaby Harborough Hinckley & Oadby & North West Melton Rutland Bosworth Wigston Leicestershire Figure 2: Summary of opportunities for Renewable energy (Low Scenario) www.itpower.co.uk Renewable Energy Opportunities: Medium Scenario 30 Wind 25 Hydro Anerobic digestion of 20 cattle and pig slurry Straw and annual energy crops W M 15 Building integrated (electric) Building integrated 10 (thermal) 5 0 Blaby Harborough Hinckley & Oadby & North West Melton Rutland Bosworth Wigston Leicestershire igure 3: Summary of opportunities for Renewable energy (Medium Scenario) Renewable Energy Opportunities: High Scenario 45 40 Wind 35 Hydro 30 Anerobic digestion of cattle and pig 25 slurry W Straw and annual M energy crops (e.g. 20 Triticale) Building integrated 15 (electric) Building integrated 10 (thermal) 5 0 Blaby Harborough Hinckley & Oadby & North West Melton Rutland Bosworth Wigston Leicestershire Figure 4: Summary of opportunities for Renewable energy (High Scenario) IT Power recommends that the results for the medium scenario (presented in Table 4) be adopted as targets for renewable energy development by 2026. www.itpower.co.uk Table 4: Recommended targets for renewable energy development by 2026 Recommended Renewable Energy Targets Anerobic Straw Building Building integrated digestion and integrated renewables: Wind Hydro of cattle annual renewables: Biomass heating, and pig energy solar PV and solar water slurry crops micro wind heating and GSHP MW MW MW MW MW electric MW thermal Blaby 4 0 0 2 13 16 Harborough 24 0 1 10 17 19 Hinckley & Bosworth 4 0 1 5 15 18 Oadby & Wigston 2 0 0 0 4 6 North West Leicestershire 0 1 0 4 23 25 Melton 12 0 0 9 12 14 Rutland 18 0 0 8 8 8 Total 64 1 2 37 93 231 In order to realise this potential and meet the targets a series of recommendations have been made. Energy Efficiency Recommendations for New Developments The third part of the project assessed the extent that it may be technically and economically possible to reduce the carbon emissions of new buildings beyond the requirements of the building regulations, using energy efficiency measures. The work looked at the existing building regulations and their expected evolution for domestic and non-domestic buildings in terms of Target Emission Rates (TERs). The technical and financial implications of applying energy efficiency measures were then assessed and policy recommendations made options. For domestic buildings the assessment looked closely at evidence available relating to energy standards of the Code for Sustainable Homes. It concluded that up to 25% energy efficiency improvements can be readily achieved through energy efficiency measures and at a cost not exceeding 7% of the total build costs. Up to 60% improvements can also be achieved with energy efficiency measures, however, there is currently little experience of building to this standard in the UK, hence the estimated cost of an additional 10% of total build cost is difficult to verify. As the Building Regulations progressively lower U-values to drive carbon reductions the market uptake for the appropriate technologies and construction techniques to achieve high efficiency homes will be increased. Recommendations for local energy efficiency requirements are presented in Table 5. These correspond roughly to Scenario 3 within the Climate Change Assessment of Development Options and represent a 27% reduction in CO2 emissions from homes built before 2016.