S&P Global Platts
December 2020
US energy policy Sustainable aviation China’s road to after the election fuel takes off net zero carbon
The new energy landscape Insight
ISSN 2153-1528 (print) Contributors ISSN 2153-1536 (online)
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Contents December 2020
14
08 34 54 62
8 Five commodity themes for 2021 24 China’s long march to zero carbon 42 Insight from Washington 60 Insight from Brussels
From COVID-19 impacts to disruptive technology: China is targeting net-zero emissions by 2060, but its coal-heavy California plans to phase out sales of new ICE cars by 2035, The European Commission is building a plan to slash the S&P Global Platts president Martin Fraenkel on what’s energy system will be hard to decarbonize but how quickly can EVs replace them? bloc’s fossil fuel demand, to meet an ambitious timetable for in store for commodities in 2021 carbon neutrality
14 Energy on the ballot 32 Insight from Shanghai 46 Insight Conversation: Hussain Sultan Al Junaidy 62 The “U” factor Ukraine’s gas market is becoming more integrated The results of the US election suggest a patchwork of China is pressing ahead with gas sector liberalization, improving The founder and former CEO of Emirates National Oil Company with its Western neighbours’. What does it mean for energy policy across states, while Joe Biden’s climate goals access to pipelines and targeting competitive markets and looks back on his career and discusses the development of gas hubs in Southern and Eastern Europe? may face obstacles pricing Dubai’s oil sector
19 Event Calendar 2021 34 Preparing for takeoff 50 Insight from Dubai 70 The 2020 Energy Transition Award
Events to watch in the coming year by commodity, spanning key Despite a punishing year for aviation, the sector is beginning to Bleak oil demand outlooks are pushing Middle Eastern countries S&P Global Trucost recognizes power companies that elections, industry meetings, and energy policy announcements embrace sustainable aviation fuels to focus investment on higher-growth petrochemicals are showing strongest leadership in decarbonization and sustainability 20 Paradigm shift 40 US refiners embrace renewable fuel 54 Carbon commitment 76 S&P Global Platts Global Energy Awards S&P Global Platts’ global director of analytics, Chris Midgley, Mapping the boom in US refinery conversions that is set to The EU carbon market is due to be transformed in the coming looks back at 2020 and considers key transformations in drive up production of renewable diesel and jet fuel years as regulations on free allowances and auction volumes Read about this year’s winners, their standout achievements commodity markets are tightened up in a turbulent year for commodities, and our judges’ commentary on the selections
4 Insight December 2020 December 2020 Insight 5 Refineries Regions Editor’s Note Explore Insight Jamnagar Europe OPEC Africa Russia/ Ulsan Central Asia
Asia- Middle Pacific East Ruwais North Latin America/ America Caribbean Port Arthur Grades Zhenhai Key Platts Benchmarks Light Light sweet sour
Pernis Medium Medium Our website spglobal.com/platts contains an extensive selection of free news, videos, podcasts sweet sour Coming to the end of a full year living with a global pandemic, thoughts are turning to the AGS Dated Urals Dubai Oman Brent Paraguana Heavy Heavy future, not least the hope of a quick rollout of promising vaccines that could gradually restore and special reports about energy and commodities. Here’s a selection of highlights sweet sour
lives to normality in 2021. Trg Cos ADCo Nio EF As QtL Pos Lav Kir Kw BasHvy 0.00% 0.04% 0.11% 0.13% 0.17% 0.18% 1.22% 1.67% 1.93% 2.23% 2.52% 4.20% 73.10° 48.20° 58.40° 40.00° 45.20° 48.50° 41.30° 31.50° 34.00° 34.30° 31.00° 23.60°
Alg Ag Sah QI WTIM Ose Nem SP LLS ES WTI Mas CPC SiL UmL Mb Ol ArEL Ur Uza Ban ArM My For the energy sector as for most others, it has been a year of upheaval that has required 0.00% 0.04% 0.10% 0.13% 0.15% 0.20% 0.21% 0.26% 0.33% 0.37% 0.42% 0.51% 0.54% 0.57% 0.70% 0.79% 0.89% 1.00% 1.44% 1.84% 2.45% 2.54% 3.33% 68.70° 47.90° 43.20° 36.00° 42.00° 39.60° 39.80° 58.40° 36.70° 36.70° 40.80° 34.10° 46.20° 35.10° 38.90° 40.20° 38.70° 39.20° 31.10° 33.90° 31.80° 30.90° 21.80° companies and individuals to dig deep and respond with agility and ingenuity. With NWSC Nk Ba Cab BH Tro Eko QDFC Dr Pl BNB TEN Fo ESPO FG Bur Ji Das Om ArL Db BasL KL 0.01% 0.04% 0.10% 0.12% 0.17% 0.18% 0.21% 0.26% 0.29% 0.37% 0.40% 0.43% 0.54% 0.55% 0.66% 0.87% 0.87% 1.11% 1.38% 1.96% 2.13% 3.16% 3.89% demand dented by lockdowns, for many producers and sellers, scaling back has been the 63.00° 42.40° 42.80° 32.60° 39.30° 34.50° 38.90° 57.00° 33.00° 33.20° 37.50° 33.80° 37.30° 34.70° 73.10° 32.30° 32.30° 39.20° 30.50° 33.30° 30.40° 28.80° 21.30° order of the day. EFC BHo Sha Daq Az BL Jb Zaf Esp Lul Ko Med TN Lz Og JSv Th Eu Ma Sue AlS ArH WCS 0.04% 0.04% 0.09% 0.11% 0.14% 0.18% 0.25% 0.25% 0.33% 0.35% 0.37% 0.47% 0.52% 0.51% 0.75% 0.80% 0.90% 1.03% 1.82% 1.64% 2.37% 2.75% 3.59% 55.00° 38.60° 42.20° 32.30° 35.00° 32.80° 37.60° 30.90° 32.20° 30.50° 31.70° 32.90° 34.20° 32.10° 35.60° 28.00° 32.30° 35.40° 30.00° 29.90° 28.10° 27.80° 20.90°
Alb Dul Aga Chm Er Eg Gal For WR Dj Paz Gir Hi Gr Hu Sat Mos HBI Cu IrHvy VnMdm Miss Sor Concurrently, there is the sense that energy transition will not wait – if anything, it must speed 0.02% 0.08% 0.10% 0.13% 0.16% 0.17% 0.23% 0.28% 0.31% 0.34% 0.41% 0.42% 0.53% 0.59% 0.64% 0.81% 0.87% 1.15% 1.38% 1.77% 1.85% 2.95% 3.38% 51.70° 37.60° 37.40° 26.90° 34.80° 27.30° 36.30° 30.30° 30.00° 27.60° 25.60° 29.70° 33.00° 29.00° 28.30° 27.00° 28.30° 35.20° 28.80° 29.50° 27.00° 27.60° 19.20°
up. The signals are everywhere, from decarbonization pledges on the part of global energy ArSL Rab Se Dar Escr CS CLOV Us Mer VG Eb Sch Hd RnHvy Cpt Vs Lo IrL Ca Or VH1 RGh D16 0.04% 0.07% 0.09% 0.12% 0.17% 0.20% 0.25% 0.27% 0.32% 0.33% 0.40% 0.44% 0.53% 0.61% 0.70% 0.83% 0.87% 1.46% 1.41% 1.63% 1.85% 2.50% 4.10% Emma Slawinski companies and governments, to national plans and stimulus funding for a green and high- 50.60° 33.40° 34.50° 25.00° 33.50° 26.30° 32.80° 29.00° 28.80° 17.00° 19.80° 24.90° 24.40° 22.80° 19.10° 24.30° 23.30° 33.60° 17.50° 23.30° 23.50° 24.00° 16.00° Tap Dob Min Py Co Esc Bo Qin Boz Yom Vnc Cl Dal Juba Kr Sh Li Al Rub Per Na VH2 Sq tech revolution. 0.03% 0.09% 0.09% 0.13% 0.14% 0.19% 0.24% 0.28% 0.29% 0.34% 0.37% 0.47% 0.51% 0.56% 0.70% 0.84% 0.90% 1.27% 1.33% 1.79% 1.96% 2.50% 3.50% Editor 44.60° 21.40° 33.90° 19.30° 30.70° 24.10° 30.60° 16.50° 16.90° 16.70° 17.40° 23.3° 23.20° 17.10° 14.00° 24.20° 22.50° 19.60° 12.70° 13.50° 19.00° 16.00° 9.00°
ry runs: 1,4 fine 19 Energy transition features prominently in the top five commodity themes for 2021 re ,00 19 0 b 0 /d 2 0.7 11.5 ry runs: 77 ery runs: 67 chosen by S&P Global Platts president, Martin Fraenkel (page 8), who stresses that a Podcast fine Interactive3,0 fin 8,0 re 0 re 00 0 9 b 19 b 1 / 0 /d 0 d 2 1.7 2 ery runs: 54 fin 5, multi-strand approach, including technology and policy levers, is required to meet global Platts Future Energy Platts Periodic Table of Oil re 00 2.2 9 0 1 b 0 /d y runs: 43.4 23.6 2 er 331 n fin ,0 0.5 ry ru s: 4 re 3.0 0 decarbonization goals. ne 42 0 fi ,0 9 b e 0 1 3.6 / 45.3 37.2 72.0 28.00 r 0 0 d runs A podcast series providing insights on energy 2 y : 1 9 b er 4 1 5 / n , 63.3 23.7 0 d fi 0 2 e 0 Our interactive guide to 150 crude oil grades with r 0
58.6 28.7 9 100 b 1 transition, tomorrow’s fuels and energy sources, and / 0.7 20.2 0 58.6 34.5 d Platts global director of Analytics, Chris Midgley, considers the twists and turns of oil markets price13.6 trends and geographic distribution12.5 of demand, 6.0 2 the implications for commodity markets, from oil to over the last 12 months and gives his outlook on what’s to come from page 20, pointing out now updated to connect crude streams with Platts 6.9 power to metals. Reliance SK Energy ADNOC Motiva Sinopec Shell PDVSA the long-term damage to economic development, which will in turn significantly impact benchmarks and key refineries. energy demand. spglobal.com/fe-podcast spglobal.com/periodictable Politics and energy have been as intertwined as ever in 2020, and nowhere was this combination more volatile than the US presidential election. As the dust settles, we examine how the results could shape US energy policy both at federal and state level (page 14). Video However, it was China that provided one of the biggest surprises of the year, with its public Market Movers pledge to reach net zero CO2 emissions by 2060. Eric Yep looks at how the country might meet that commitment, given its current high dependence on coal (page 24), while Sebastian Lewis Your weekly guide to the biggest events and trends influencing energy and analyzes China’s evolving approach to natural gas (page 32). commodity markets, delivered in three regional editions every Monday.
Turning to Europe’s plans for decarbonization, from page 56, Frank Watson explains what lies spglobal.com/market-movers ahead for the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, which will step up a gear going into 2021.
This edition of Insight also takes in the rise of sustainable aviation fuel and biofuels more broadly, including the US refining sector’s pivot to produce them at a time of weak margins for traditional products (pages 34 and 40). Year ahead Commodities 2021 Against the backdrop of huge challenges and rapid change, it is especially important to recognize the outstanding achievements of companies and individuals in the energy sector, In a series of deep-dive articles, Platts’ news and pricing teams give a market as the 2021 S&P Global Platts Global Energy Awards continues to do in its 22nd year. view of drivers and fundamentals that will shape the commodity sector in 2021. spglobal.com/commodities-2021 You can read about this year’s winners, their contributions to the industry and our judges’ commentary on how they were selected, from page 76.
[email protected] 6 Insight December 2020 December 2020 Insight 7 Five commodity themes for 2021 After a turbulent 2020 for all commodities, what can we expect in the coming year? S&P Global Platts president Martin Fraenkel shares his outlook
8 Insight December 2020 December 2020 Insight 9 Five commodity themes for 2021
The path of energy transition
The coronavirus pandemic has not only altered near-term energy supply, demand, and prices, but also, to some extent, their long- term trajectories. This year has been unlike any other While challenging, the current in recent history. The coronavirus climate creates opportunities and There is debate as to whether pandemic has left the commodities two, intertwining developments – coronavirus will accelerate the industry reeling, disrupting supply the ever-increasing focus on ESG energy transition. S&P Global chains and slashing demand. and rapidly evolving technology – Platts Analytics believes that, are key factors in driving change. while coronavirus has reduced Performance has varied across long-term global oil demand by the commodities sector, with During this period, I have been 2.5 million b/d, this is not enough some – such as metals and asked countless times “What to substantively bring forward the agriculture – experiencing effects impact will the pandemic have on year of peak oil demand that we that are likely to be short-lived the energy transition?” and “What project for the late 2030s. when the economy begins to might the commodities industry rebound. In others, the fallout of look like in the future?” In addition, while the pandemic is the pandemic could have more forecast to cut energy sector CO2 lasting implications, as the chaos The answers, of course, are not emissions by 27.5 gigatons over of COVID-19 has exposed existing simple, particularly when one 2020-2050 – equivalent to almost weaknesses or the need for considers the implications of one full year of emissions – more structural change. ESG, which we at S&P Global than 10 times this reduction is Unlike other technological leaps see across each of our divisions. needed to meet a scenario in which necessary for new markets Oil demand is relatively The power and transport industries But here is my view through five global warming is limited to to evolve, carbon pricing is a have been hit particularly hard commodity themes to watch as we 2 degrees through 2050. proven means of incentivizing price inelastic and much at a time when the decline in move into 2021. Reducing and valuing carbon lower-carbon solutions. While hydrocarbon demand is looming on In short, for both long-term global power generation has been the more responsive to the horizon, resulting in a pivotal oil demand and supply, the impact Existing markets and technologies main arena for carbon pricing moment for policy makers, trade of coronavirus is a decided step alone will not be enough to reach so far, looking ahead, we must flows and energy companies down, but not a step change. net-zero targets in the coming consider that coal use will begin shifts in trend regarding the world over. decades. Cross-sectoral pathways to shrink after 2021. Therefore, Looking out to 2050, and as global to climate neutrality will have we need to identify whether income – and other demand for energy continues to to include energy efficiency, transportation, industrial and grow, there will be an extensive electrification, sustainable agricultural processes could economic drivers focus on renewable/clean energy, hydrogen, advanced biofuels and become the marginal generator of but fossil fuels will continue to carbon capture. carbon reductions. injection into gas grids, for fuel provide most of the energy supply. cells, and for applications from However, there is an expectation Under the Paris Agreement, more Hydrogen could play a key role due power generation to industrial that green recovery plans, countries will have to adopt carbon to the abundance of supply sources and domestic heat. launched by national governments targets, forcing out CO2-intensive and its wide-ranging applicability. seeking to pivot toward processes and encouraging The vast potential for global Establishing hydrogen supply decarbonization and sustainability sustainability. This creates the renewables can be harnessed lines will be critical in 2021, with as they emerge from the crisis, need for a global carbon price to via electrolysis to produce this projects testing different modes could change the state of play. understand the broader picture. zero-carbon energy carrier, for of transportation by vessel, truck
10 Insight December 2020 December 2020 Insight 11 Five commodity themes for 2021 Five commodity themes for 2021
or pipeline. For these markets to cycle somewhat different to those networks. This aims to shore up scale, we will need policy drivers seen after previous price falls. Oil the economy, which S&P Global from governments to bring down demand is relatively price inelastic economists forecast has dipped costs. Similar advances will be and much more responsive to 3.8% in 2020 and will grow by only needed in carbon capture and shifts in trend regarding income 1.5% in 2021 compared with 2019. storage technology used in the – and by extension – fiscal manufacturing of so-called “blue stimulus, tax incentives and other hydrogen”, which unlike “green economic drivers. hydrogen” is produced from fossil fuels like natural gas. This makes As such, the pace of economic up the bulk of existing supply and recovery remains critical. Innovative disruption: 5G and AI will likely provide a pathway for The global economy has been those early adopter companies. recovering from its lowest point Disruptive technologies will play in April 2020, but it is not likely to an increasingly transformative role Europe is a leading proponent, reach 2019 levels before the third in the coming years, particularly in with an ambitious hydrogen quarter of 2021. In addition, we the context of the energy transition. strategy, supporting projects and forecast global GDP will contract As 5G, AI, big data, blockchain, driving development of regulation by 3.8% this year, compared with a smart metering and the Internet as it seeks to establish 6 GW of 0.1% contraction during the 2009 of Things become ubiquitous, they electrolysis capacity by 2024. global financial crisis, creating have huge potential to change how Meanwhile, the fourth phase of the further headwinds. and when energy is generated, how EU emissions trading system will trading occurs and how data is tighten the supply of allowances There are some bullish undertones ingested and acted upon. in 2021, supporting carbon prices to watch out for, however, with a and potentially narrowing the price weaker US dollar and a possible This year S&P Global Platts gap between conventional and coronavirus vaccine providing partnered with Blocklab, the Port of renewable hydrogen. some support in the short term, Rotterdam’s blockchain subsidiary, while so-called green recovery to launch Distro Energy. This is funds unveiled by the EU a high-frequency, decentralized these technologies need to on imports and exports, and The return of China as a major (€225 billion dedicated to the energy market that uses AI and function not only along individual focusing on domestic markets. force in the global corn and energy transition over the next blockchain’s distributed ledger energy value chains – from soybean markets may add a three years in July), the US (a technology to enable energy production through to distribution Food security is expected to be further bullish factor to sentiment, Commodities supercycle 2.0 $2 trillion energy transition plan consumers in the port to manage and consumption – but also across a key theme for 2021 as a result, as the restocking of the hog under the Biden administration), their power consumption by trading them, where the oil, gas, coal with exporters that have already population affected by the 2018 Many of these clean energy and China (further details are renewable energy from solar and and electricity energy systems curbed outgoing supplies in 2020 swine flu outbreak could increase technologies require substantial expected in the 14th Five Year battery storage. interface and interconnect. still looking to meet domestic the country’s corn import quota investments over the next few Plan in Q1 2021) provide some demand and maintain internal threefold from 2020’s 7 million mt. years. Central banks are setting long-term buoyancy. In the two months after launch, price stability. Experts believe ultra-low interest rates as an consumers reduced their costs that, while there is no shortage of Agencies such as the Food and important part of monetary policy Interestingly, the Chinese by 11%, while the renewable food and grain supplies, several Agriculture Organization of the towards recovery. This may help government has a new twist to its producers saw a 14% improvement factors have created unease United Nations have predicted those clean energy technologies to traditional five-year infrastructure- in their revenues. While this The future of unilateralism among buyers. This was highlighted that rising prices, coupled with find their first investments, while based stimulus package, with the is a small pilot scheme, it has by stockpiling of grain reserves in economic turbulence, leave low- we see that companies putting focus on 5G, data centers, AI, the exciting potential to be rolled out Global lockdowns have provided 2020 by state buyers in China, the income countries in a precarious into practice ESG standards are industrial internet and EV charging more extensively. a further accelerator for Middle East, Turkey, Southeast position, further undermining compensated by their investors. infrastructure. This will accelerate “deglobalization”, as business and Asia and Africa: at times some were food security. the construction of the data and Increasingly, we see demand for governments attempt to “reshore” forced to sell imported grains at a The makings of the next commodity communications networks needed real-time data analysis to optimize global supply chains where loss in domestic markets to limit supercycle are perhaps falling into to support smart manufacturing production and reduce costs possible, reducing dependencies food price rises. place in 2021 and beyond, but with and smart cities, with internet- among industry participants. But many caveats, which makes this enabled transport and energy in order to be truly transformative,
12 Insight December 2020 December 2020 Insight 13 Energy on the ballot
Energy on the ballot The 2020 US elections underlined divisions between states in approaches to energy and climate, while at federal level President-elect Joe Biden’s action is likely to be constrained. By Meghan Gordon, Jasmin Melvin, Maya Weber and Jeff Mower
Without control of the Senate, it will be a challenge S President-elect Joe Biden has for the Biden administration to get far on its green promised a different approach energy agenda. U to shaping energy and climate policy, vowing to pass a $2 trillion “A bitter battle could eradicate Washington’s shrinking political center, potentially aligning lawmakers more climate plan aiming to displace fossil closely with national party ideologies than home-state fuels, and a halt to new drilling permits resource bases, and leaving less room for energy policy on federal lands and waters. compromises,” said Kevin Book, managing director of ClearView Energy Partners.
But Biden faces significant obstacles ahead, Book doubts the fracking debate and Biden’s plans to including a split US Congress and a deepening divide “transition” away from oil and gas definitively swayed in the US on energy issues that will make it harder to any races. But they could have combined with social achieve his goals. issues to draw Republican support in rural, producer districts, he said. At the federal level, while Democrats will retain control of the House of Representatives, a win by Republican Senator Dan Sullivan in Alaska means the party will Tight Senate races need to win both January 5 runoff elections in Georgia just to secure a 50:50 tie in the Senate, which would US Senator Joni Ernst, Republican-Iowa, held onto mean Vice President-elect Kamala Harris holds the her seat after a tight race that tested her support of tie-breaking vote. biofuel makers and knowledge of commodity prices. In her first term, Ernst played a key role in White House “Historically, the US Senate has been the key obstacle negotiations over the US biofuel mandate, defending for comprehensive climate legislation, and the the Renewable Fuel Standard on behalf of biofuel results from [the November 3] elections suggest that makers as oil refiners pushed for exceptions and lower this dynamic may not change,” said Jeff Berman, blending requirements. S&P Global Platts Analytics’ director of emissions and clean energy analytics. Ernst promised to vote against any climate legislation like California’s recent goal to end new sales of gasoline-powered passenger vehicles by 2035. She
14 Insight December 2020 December 2020 Insight 15 Energy on the ballot Energy on the ballot
North Carolina’s Democratic Governor Roy Cooper could advance more aggressive policies to combat North Carolina’s Democratic Governor Roy Cooper will get will get a second term to continue efforts to harden climate change in line with New Hampshire’s New infrastructure against extreme weather and cut England neighbors. a second term to continue efforts to harden infrastructure carbon emissions in the politically conservative South. His plan to address climate change and transition North Dakota’s Republican Governor Doug Burgum against extreme weather and cut carbon emissions in the to a clean energy economy looks to accelerate coal easily won a second term as the state grapples with plant retirements, expand renewable energy growth an economic downturn brought on by the oil price drop and reform utility regulation and rate setting. North and weak global demand. North Dakota is the No. 2 oil- politically conservative South Carolina already ranks second among US states in producing state after Texas, but it fell to the third spot solar energy capacity. behind New Mexico in May and June when producers said it amounted to “outlawing fossil fuels, ethanol and Democratic hopes of flipping state legislatures, with rushed to shut in wells in response to low prices. biodiesel in a matter of 15 years.” important energy policy implications, were not realized. Cooper’s reelection does not bode well for the oil Republicans held onto state House control in Texas, the and gas lobby. He has opposed drilling off the North North Dakota’s oil output had recovered to 1.16 million Alaska’s Sullivan pushed to open the Arctic National Senate in Minnesota, both chambers in Pennsylvania Carolina coast. And while his position on pipelines and b/d in August, the highest since April, but state Wildlife Refuge to oil and gas drilling during his first and the Michigan House. One notable flip came in New fracking has wavered in the past, lately he has taken regulators continue to predict that another sharp term, which the Trump administration approved in Hampshire, where voters gave Republicans the trifecta a more critical view of gas pipeline projects routed downturn lies ahead after all easy-to-restart wells August, setting the stage for a possible lease sale of gubernatorial, Senate and House control. through the state. return to production. A lack of new drilling will bring by December. In April, Sullivan urged the Trump on the next downturn as natural declines outpace administration to retaliate against Saudi Arabia for new production. sending a flood of crude to the US at the height of States with climate focus Fossil fuel-friendly states Riyadh’s oil price war with Russia, when US producers were scrambling to find storage for their own supplies. Gubernatorial races offered few surprises. States that States dependent on fossil fuels or that remain Ballot measures have been vocal about leading on climate change in significant players in coal production, on the other No blue wave the absence of federal policy, or that have experienced hand, held onto their Republican leaders. In state-level voting, clean energy advocates failed economic wins from renewable energy in the state, to rack up the wins seen in the 2018 midterms, when State and local election results showed a lack of a retained their Democratic incumbents. Republican Indiana Governor Eric Holcomb, a fossil multiple states flipped to single party control. Democratic “blue wave to easily sweep in national fuel advocate, won reelection. Neither climate change US climate policy,” said Amy Myers Jaffe, research For instance, Democrat Jay Inslee held onto his seat nor the environment made his top-five list of priorities Scott Segal of Bracewell’s Policy Resolution Group professor and managing director of the Climate as governor of the state of Washington. Climate policy as Indiana ranks seventh among US states in coal said the results mean the calculus doesn’t change a Policy Lab at Tufts University’s Fletcher School. Jaffe will remain a priority in his third term, with the state production and second in coal consumption. In 2019, lot, but if a federal stalemate continues, certain states pointed to Florida and Texas as two states hit hard on a path to a carbon-neutral electric grid by 2030 and coal fueled 59% of Indiana ‘s net power generation, with current Democratic majorities will play stronger by recent severe weather events that nevertheless 100% renewable energy by 2045. according to the US Energy Information Administration. roles advancing the clean energy agenda and activist reaffirmed support for Republicans who oppose Renewables accounted for just 7% of the state’s governors could continue to push the envelope. Even climate legislation. generation in 2019. states with incumbent fossil-fuel interests such as Texas have seen fit to debate renewable policy New Hampshire’s Republican Governor Chris Sununu initiatives, he said. secured a third term in office, defeating a Democratic challenger who planned to take a more proactive In Nevada, voters amended the state’s constitution to stance on mitigating climate change. Sununu, though require electric utilities to source 50% of their power no longer touting the GOP line of climate skepticism, from renewable resources by 2030. The amendment has rejected regional initiatives to cut greenhouse gas prevents a future legislature from reversing the emissions, making New Hampshire a regional outlier existing renewable portfolio standard without the among New England states. additional say of voters. Question 6, the 50%-by-2030 requirement, was backed by voters a first time in 2018, Sununu’s approach to climate policy has emphasized with nearly 60% voting yes, and required a second keeping costs down. He has opposed various affirmative vote to become final. renewable energy proposals from lawmakers and more ambitious emissions-reduction goals, but has In New Mexico, residents also voted to revamp been a vocal proponent of offshore wind development. oversight of the Public Regulation Commission, With a legislature now in his corner, his position is only handing governors greater control over the body that strengthened, making it unlikely that state Democrats regulates utilities. Prevailing with 55.6% of the vote,
16 Insight December 2020 December 2020 Insight 17 Energy on the ballot Event Calendar 2021
Event Calendar 2021 The coming year for commodities will be defined by the pace of recovery from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has hammered demand. 2021 will be marked by the beginning of a new US presidential administration under Joe Biden, which is likely to pivot the world’s largest economy towards greener energy policies. Also watch out for a new economic plan coming out of China and global climate change talks towards the end of the year in Glasgow. Petrochemicals Energy transition Cross-commodity/oil Agriculture Power/gas Steel
EU plastic tax Russia limiting grain exports Murban futures trading Each member state will make a contribution to the EU Russia is expected to reintroduce a quota on grain The Intercontinental Exchange plans to launch a budget based on the amount of non-recycled plastic exports to maintain food security. The quota will be Murban futures contract. packaging used. apply to wheat, corn, barley and rye. China releases its 14th Five Year Plan Basel Convention Plastic Waste Amendments US Budget China sets development policies for the next 5 years. Amendments to incorporate plastic waste destined for New US president’s budget is sent to Congress Expect a focus on peak carbon emissions by 2030. export under the umbrella of “hazardous waste”. US power market development UK hydrogen strategy Thailand plastic import ban Southwest Power Pool to launch its Western Energy UK will join the ranks of several other EU nations by Thailand bans all imports of foreign plastic scrap as of Imbalance Service across the US western states announcing its national hydrogen strategy. 2021 US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission US power capacity markets US carbonJAN markets First meetingFEB of the Federal Energy Regulatory Q1 decisionMAR on New York’s generation capacity Virginia to join Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative’s US Commission under the new administration market, which could be abandoned. GHG emissions market. US state nuclear subsidies US Presidential Inauguration Likely Q1 decision on whether nuclear subsidy law in Likely will be accompanied by energy and Ohio will be repealed. climate-related actions.
US nuclear plant retirements US power generation capacity markets Iran elections Entergy plans to retire the 1,030-MW Unit 3 of the Likely that the first PJM capacity market auction Presidential election in Middle East’s second largest Indian Point nuclear plant in New York. since 2018 will be held in May. holder of oil reserves OPEC+ meeting OPEC alliance expected to delay the scheduled the constitutional amendment would end election of tapering of their crude oil production cuts in 2021. commissioners and cut their number from five to three. In Nevada, voters amended the St Petersburg Economic Forum Russia’s main economic conference led by President The commission has become increasingly contentious Vladimir Putin since the state adopted a 100% renewable energy EU climate, energy proposals state’s constitution to require APR MAY EC to publishJUN legislative proposals on a carbon mandate by 2050, clashing with Democratic Governor border tax and on methane emissions. EU hydrogen regulations Michelle Lujan Grisham over implementation of the act. New terminology will allow for a European electric utilities to source 50% certification for all renewable and low carbon fuels.
Executive orders Malaysia, Indonesia biodiesel mandates Tokyo Olympic Games, peak season air travel Russian State Duma elections of their power from renewable Malaysia to roll out the B20 mandate to manufacture If the delayed Tokyo Olympics go ahead from their Changes to the legislative body could result in biofuel with 20% palm oil inclusion. Indonesia is new opening date of July 23 2021, it will be a strong changes to energy and climate policy as well as scheduled to start mandatory sales of B40 in July. signal that economies are firmly on a track back to taxation. normality. July and August are also high season for While Biden will face opposition to his green energy resources by 2030 EU steel import safeguards expiry flights, providing a litmus test for air travel recovery. German elections The EU's safeguards system is scheduled to Germany to seleeect a new Chancellor to replace goals from Republicans in Congress and at the terminate June 30. Angela Merkel state level, he has one card up his sleeve that has JUN/ increasingly been used by recent administrations: Biden’s Environmental Protection Agency could executive orders. reverse Trump administration rollbacks of vehicle fuel AUG SEP efficiency targets and protect California’s waiver to set A Biden administration could still make strides on tougher-than-national standards. The waiver is key to JUL climate goals without a Democratic majority in the California’s latest zero-emission vehicle goal of phasing Senate by using executive actions just as the Trump out all new sales of gasoline-powered cars by 2035. Russian Energy Week COP26 UK CFD auction administration did during a divided Congress. He could The main conference in the calendar for the Russian UN climate change conference hosted by the UK in UK government has pledged to double support for rejoin the Paris Agreement, block new federal drilling “That’s going to put a lot of pressure on EPA,” said Eric energy sector. Glasgow. low carbon generation in this auction. German gas hub merger GECF summit leases, require lengthier environmental project reviews Washburn, president of Windward Strategies and a A new single gas trading hub in Germany called GECF heads of state summit in Qatar as calls grow Trading Hub Europe is to begin operations. for group to take coordinated market action. and halt the use of small refinery waivers to the federal consultant for Bracewell’s Policy Resolution Group. “I biofuel mandate. suspect you’re going to see a new Clean Power Plan, revisiting methane limits, revising wetlands protection OCT NOV DEC Rapidan Energy Group predicted Biden could also ... a lot of what we saw in the Obama administration pursue climate action through the Federal Reserve or come back this time in a pretty activist EPA.” Securities and Exchange Commission to restrict the fossil fuel sector’s access to low-cost capital.
18 Insight December 2020 December 2020 Insight 19 Paradigm shift
Paradigm shift: how the global pandemic is shaping energy transition The coronavirus pandemic has accelerated change in the global In March, even as the reality of the pandemic was Despite US crude futures benchmark WTI trading in energy system, from historic declines in GHG emissions, inflections rapidly dawning, a price war suddenly broke out in negative territory for the first time ever, and tumbling in demand trends and shifting production patterns, to an increased the oil market. Russia decided it had had enough of all the way down to a historic low at minus $37/b providing price support, arguing that the strategy had during a chaotic expiry of the front-month contract energy transition focus and aspirations towards net-zero emissions, allowed the US shale industry to take too much market on April 20, commodity prices in general behaved in a writes S&P Global Platts’ global director of analytics, Chris Midgley share, and with this the OPEC+ agreement collapsed. In rational manner to address the multitude of supply- response Saudi Arabia immediately vowed to flood the demand imbalances. market, an ill-timed move that came only days before the World Health Organization declared the novel Crude prices fell to curtail production, initially gasoline coronavirus a global pandemic. cracks collapsed and gasoil rose in order to rebalance refinery production in response to the collapse in Just as OPEC and Russia were piling supply onto the passenger transportation. Natural gas liquefaction market during April, global oil demand was collapsing by margins went negative in the US, causing utilization an unprecedented amount – more than 20 million b/d. to eventually fall below 40%. With major curtailments Fossil fuels across the board fell to coal parity, as ahead to air travel, jet fuel prices collapsed, incentivizing of a supply response they all competed for what little refineries to displace it, 70% to gasoil, 30% to heavy demand was left, triggering coal-to-gas switching and naphtha. This in turn forced gasoil cracks down and driving the ICE Brent crude futures structure into a caused refinery margins to rapidly converge to zero, steep contango to incentivize floating storage, in resulting in huge refinery run cuts. Most of these forecasts weren’t wrong, but none of us what proved to be an unexpected windfall for the hat a difference a year makes. imagined the primary driver of market dynamics would shipping industry. With Russia and Saudi Arabia overcoming their This time last year at the S&P turn out to be a global pandemic. differences in the face of collapsing oil prices, OPEC++ Global Platts Global Energy W That said, 2019 did end with the gasoil-fuel oil spread Commodity prices respond to keep markets balanced in 2020 Outlook Forum we were anticipating that blowing out to over $50/b as shippers switched to e e 2020 would be all about IMO 2020, which 0.5% sulfur fuel oil ahead of the January 1 IMO D er e ce was set to bring upheaval to the shipping deadline. Fuel oil fell down to coal parity pricing, as it e er c m c e re reb ce sector but opportunity for refiners. had to compete with LNG and coal into thermal power. Initially it was the weakening of the gasoil crack that 0 narrowed the spread, as the mildest winter on record In addition we were forecasting weather to have a softened heating oil demand by far more than the D e re larger impact on commodity supply and demand, increase from demand for gasoil into bunkers. With a r e dislocation between Dated Brent and ICE Brent loss of 800,000 b/d demand, simple refineries started e futures, a tightening of US natural gas supply/demand to cut runs, resulting in a tightening of supply of high balances, agriculture facing ongoing impacts of trade sulfur fuel oil, which pulled the gasoil-fuel oil spread e r b wars and African Swine Fever, and a greater focus on back below $30/b. 0 climate change, with hydrogen in the spotlight. 20 r 20 20 20 e 20 20