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India Real Estate H2, 2020

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India Real Estate H2, 2020 Research years in INDIyears in A INDIA IndiaIndia RealReal Estate Estate Residential and Office - July - December 2020 INDIA REAL ESTATE INDIA REAL ESTATE Mumbai HO Knight Frank (India) Pvt. Ltd. Paville House, Near Twin Towers, Off. Veer Savarkar Marg, Prabhadevi, Mumbai 400 025, India 022 6745 0101 / 4928 0101 Bengaluru Knight Frank (India) Pvt. Ltd. 204 & 205, 2nd Floor, Embassy Square, #148 Infantry Road, Bengaluru 560001, India 080 40732600 / 22385515 Pune Knight Frank (India) Pvt. Ltd. Unit No.701, Level 7, Pentagon Towers P4, Magarpatta City, Hadapsar, Pune 411 013, India 020 67491500 / 30188500 Chennai Knight Frank (India) Pvt. Ltd. 1st Floor, Centre block, Sunny Side, 8/17, Shafee Mohammed Road, Nungambakkam, Chennai 600 006 044 4296 9000 Gurgaon Knight Frank (India) Pvt. Ltd. Office Address: 1505-1508, 15th Floor, Tower B, Signature Towers South City 1, Gurgaon 122 001, India 0124 4782700 Hyderabad Western Dallas Centre, 5th floor, Office #3, Hyderabad Knowledge City, Survey No. 83/1, Raidurg, Serilingampally Mandal, Ranga Reddy District, Telangana Hyderabad - 500 032 040 4455 4141 Kolkata Knight Frank (India) Pvt. Ltd. PS Srijan Corporate Park Unit Number – 1202A, 12th Floor, Block – EP & GP, Plot Number - GP 2, Sector – V, Salt Lake, Kolkata 700 091 033 66521000 Ahmedabad Knight Frank (India) Pvt. Ltd. Unit Nos. 407 & 408, Block ‘C’, The First, B/H Keshav Baugh Party Plot, Vastrapur, Ahmedabad – 380015 079 48940259 / 40380259 www.knightfrank.co.in/research 2 INDIA REAL ESTATE Foreword Shishir Baijal Chairman and Managing Director he year 2020 had reflections of both COVID-19 pandemic As we embark upon 2021, market developments in the last few associated disturbances in the beginning as well as months have enthused strong hope among market stakeholders. Tresurgence of pent-up demand in the later part of the year. With gradual unlocking of cities in Q3 2020, office occupiers and A lot happened during the year, which was hitherto unprecedented homebuyers alike reactivated their property consumption plans. and that changed the natural course of business uniquely impacting Further, in Q4 2020, as demand returned conclusively, the period the way real estate sector moved in 2020. The first half of the year recorded performance that far exceeded those achieved in the witnessed a complete standstill of activities due to the forced previous quarters of the year. Resumption of business activities and lockdown starting March 2020, followed by encouraging government improvement in sentiments with news of potential vaccines, ensured and central bank interventions at rapid intervals and tryst of the that office transaction volume for the top 8 cities grew by a massive medical fraternity for vaccine development, which holds the 271% QoQ in Q4 2020 and reached an impressive 115% of the pre- potential to bring stability. COVID-19 level (2019 quarterly average). 3 INDIA REAL ESTATE INDIA REAL ESTATE This performance underscores both the latent demand in the Indian the country’s housing market to its true potential. markets and the potential impact of a timely and meaningful push by the government and central bank in a pandemic period. The With the vaccine development and easing of COVID-19 fear, there Indian office market also benefitted by the resilience of its key is a lot to look forward to in the Indian market and we expect 2021 occupier group – the Information Technology sector. Encouraged by to pan out better than the preceding one, both for the economy and the flexibility offered by landlords, occupiers conclusively made a real estate sector, with cautious optimism and a heightened level of comeback. Besides, large occupiers, confident about their long-term preparedness for socio-economic challenges, as faced in 2020. The plans, have made forward commitment for office spaces still under fundamental changes to the business milieu brought about by the construction. experiences of the pandemic will define the course of growth of our economy and the sector. Similarly, in case of the residential sector, a significant amount of latent demand came to market during the festive season in Q4 With wishes of a safe and healthy new year, we present to you 2020 and as a result, with 84% QoQ jump, housing sales reached this 14th edition of our flagship half-yearly report‘India Real an exact 100% of the pre-COVID-19 level. In case of the residential Estate’. The report captures key developments and themes for the market, latent demand was rekindled by a multi-decade low home residential and office markets of the top 8 cities1 in the country. loan interest rate and flexible price and payment terms offered by With our persistent effort to provide you a comprehensive market developers. These two catalysts ensured that the consumers enjoyed analysis, I hope you will find this report version too an insightful and the best house purchase affordability in a decade. A greater need encouraging connect with the Indian market. for home ownership was seen as people spent more time indoors on account of restricted mobility during the pandemic. This translated into strong demand for bigger and better houses. The strongest movement in demand was seen in Mumbai and Pune markets, due to a limited-period 300 basis point cut in stamp duty rate by the Maharashtra state government. We believe more stimulus measures like this are the need of the hour for other markets too to reinvigorate 1Ahmedabad, Bengaluru, Chennai, Delhi – NCR, Hyderabad, Kolkata, Mumbai, Pune, 4 INDIA REAL ESTATE Contents India - 08 2021: A year of cautious optimism - 06 Ahmedabad - 20 Bengaluru - 35 Chennai - 51 Hyderabad - 67 Government stimulus for Resilience Of Bengaluru Data Centres, the emerging asset class Integrated Township Policy, real estate in Q4 2020 - 33 Real Estate Market - 49 in Chennai - 65 Hyderabad’s experiment with urban planning - 82 Kolkata - 84 Mumbai - 101 NCR - 116 Pune - 133 Affordable housing – COVID could reverse Developers in NCR adapting to MRTS push can unlock PCMC’s the reason for joy in the City of Joy’s the trend of shrinking apartment altered consumer behavior in real estate potential - 148 realty market - 99 sizes in MMR - 114 the new normal - 131 5 INDIA REAL ESTATE INDIA REAL ESTATE 2021: A year of cautious optimism Rajani Sinha Chief Economist & National Director - Research ith the COVID infection rate in India reducing and for both Manufacturing and Services have entered the positive cities unlocking in phases, the Indian economy is on zone indicating an expansion in the economy. Some of the other Wits path to recovery. After slumping by a sharp 24% economic indicators like railway freight, petroleum consumption, in April-June 2020, the GDP contraction was relatively muted at GST collection, e-way bills collection, auto sales, cement production 7% in July-September 2020. Most economic parameters are now have also seen a rebound in the last few months, reflective of the inching closer to the pre-COVID levels and some indicators have also pick-up of growth momentum in the economy. With the economy started recording growth compared to the previous year. Index of moving towards normalcy, the displaced labour has started getting Industrial Production recorded a strong growth of 3.6% in October re-absorbed, helping to improve the employment scenario. As per 2020 (eight month high), while PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) CMIE, the monthly unemployment rate in India has dropped to 6.5% 6 INDIA REAL ESTATE for November 2020, lower than the pre-COVID level of around 7%. revenue collection was also adversely impacted by the pandemic. Business sentiments have also started improving as reflected in the The Centre’s fiscal deficit is likely to surge to a high of around 7% in latest Industrial Outlook survey conducted by RBI. FY21 against the budgeted target of 3.5%, given the slump in revenue collection due to the slowdown in economy. Supportive measures from RBI and the Government have aided the economic revival. RBI has cut policy interest rates, while announcing We have started seeing substantial rebound in economic parameters various other measures for liquidity infusion, one-time loan specifically in Q3 FY21. A lot of this demand revival was supported restricting and targeted supportive measures for NBFCs, MSMEs, by the pent-up demand and festive demand. Some high frequency real estate sector and other stressed sectors. The government has economic indicators for November 2020 are showing signs of also come up with measures to aid demand revival, support stressed moderation. Hence, the critical question is how much of this growth sectors, generate employment opportunities, while also increasing momentum will be sustained in 2021. As the economy moves further budgetary allocation for capital expenditure. Additionally, the towards normalcy and people get more confident of their future government has announced measures to boost the manufacturing income stream, consumption in the economy should improve, sector and attract higher FDI, while introducing some long-pending resulting in an improvement in capacity utilization and subsequent reform measures for the labour and agriculture sector. Structural pick-up in private investment demand. The availability of COVID reforms were announced for sectors like coal mining, power vaccine in 2021 should provide a further impetus to sentiments and distribution, atomic energy, defense and aviation. These structural economic growth. RBI has projected India’s GDP growth to move reforms will have a positive impact in the medium to long-run. to positive territory in the third and fourth quarters of FY21, while projecting a GDP contraction of 7.5% for the full fiscal year. With the In the midst of all this turbulence and uncertainty, India has recorded low base of FY21, GDP growth is projected to jump up to around 9% in healthy capital inflows. FDI inflows during April-September 2020 was FY22.
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