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China and Southeast Asia in the Emerging Asian Order This document is downloaded from DR‑NTU (https://dr.ntu.edu.sg) Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. Seeking security in the dragon's shadow : China and Southeast Asia in the emerging Asian order Acharya, Amitav 2003 Acharya, Amitav. (2003). Seeking security in the dragon's shadow : China and Southeast Asia in the emerging Asian order. (RSIS Working Paper, No. 44). Singapore: Nanyang Technological University.; Acharya, A. (2003). Seeking security in the dragon's shadow : China and Southeast Asia in the emerging Asian order. (RSIS Working Paper, No. 44). Singapore: Nanyang Technological University. https://hdl.handle.net/10356/90742 Nanyang Technological University Downloaded on 25 Sep 2021 23:14:39 SGT ATTENTION: The Singapore Copyright Act applies to the use of this document. Nanyang Technological University Library No. 44 Seeking Security In The Dragon’s Shadow: China and Southeast Asia In The Emerging Asian Order Amitav Acharya Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies Singapore MARCH 2003 With Compliments This Working Paper series presents papers in a preliminary form and serves to stimulate comment and discussion. The views expressed are entirely the author’s own and not that of the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies. ATTENTION: The Singapore Copyright Act applies to the use of this document. Nanyang Technological University Library The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) was established in July 1996 as an autonomous research institute within the Nanyang Technological University. Its objectives are to: Conduct research on security, strategic and international issues. Provide general and graduate education in strategic studies, international relations, defence management and defence technology. Promote joint and exchange programmes with similar regional and international institutions; organise seminars/conferences on topics salient to the strategic and policy communities of the Asia-Pacific. Research Through its Working Paper Series, IDSS Commentaries and other publications, the Institute seeks to share its research findings with the strategic studies and defence policy communities. The Institute’s researchers are also encouraged to publish their writings in refereed journals. The focus of research is on issues relating to the security and stability of the Asia-Pacific region and their implications for Singapore and other countries in the region. The Institute has also established the S. Rajaratnam Professorship in Strategic Studies (named after Singapore’s first Foreign Minister), to bring distinguished scholars to participate in the work of the Institute. Previous holders of the Chair include Professors Stephen Walt (Harvard University), Jack Snyder (Columbia University), Wang Jisi (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences) and Alastair Iain Johnston (Harvard University). A Visiting Research Fellow Programme also enables overseas scholars to carry out related research in the Institute. Teaching The Institute provides educational opportunities at an advanced level to professionals from both the private and public sectors in Singapore and overseas through the Master of Science in Strategic Studies and Master of Science in International Relations programmes. These programmes are conducted full-time and part-time by an international faculty from July each year. In 2002, the Institute inaugurated a PhD programme in Strategic Studies/International Relations. In addition to the graduate programmes, the Institute also conducts courses on geopolitics and regional security issues at the SAFTI Military Institute (Officer Cadet School, Advanced Officers’ School and the Singapore Command and Staff College), the SAF Warrant Officers’ School, as well as the Defence, Home Affairs and Foreign Ministries. The Institute also runs a one-semester course on ‘The International Relations of the Asia Pacific’ for undergraduates in NTU. Networking The Institute convenes workshops, seminars and colloquia on aspects of international relations and security development which are of contemporary and historical significance. Highlights of the Institute’s activities include a regular Colloquium on Strategic Trends in the 21st Century, the annual Asia Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers and the biennial Asia Pacific Security Conference (held in conjunction with Asian Aerospace). Institute staff participate in Track II security dialogues and scholarly conferences in the Asia-Pacific. The Institute has contacts and collaborations with many think-tanks and research institutes in Asia, Europe and the United States. The Institute has also participated in research projects funded by the Ford Foundation and the Sasakawa Peace Foundation. The Institute serves as the Secretariat for the Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific (CSCAP), Singapore. Through these activities, the Institute aims to develop and nurture a network of researchers whose collaborative efforts will yield new insights into security issues of interest to Singapore and the region. i ATTENTION: The Singapore Copyright Act applies to the use of this document. Nanyang Technological University Library ABSTRACT This paper examines China’s changing security relations with Southeast Asia. It begins by highlighting the growing complexity of the relationship, marked by conflicting pulls of cooperation and rivalry. This is followed by cases studies of the South China Sea dispute and the extent of the economic competition between China and Southeast Asia. The paper then assesses Chinese power projection capabilities in Southeast Asia, identifying its scope and limitations. The final section looks at strategies adopted by ASEAN members to “engage” China, especially through regional institutions such as the ASEAN Regional Forum and ASEAN Plus Three. The main argument of the paper is as follows. China’s relations with Southeast Asia have been, and will continue to be marked by a mix of competition and collaboration. In the short-term, ASEAN states will seek to accommodate China and try to benefit from economic linkages with China’s booming economy. At the same time, China’s rising power will remain a concern, and ASEAN will seek avenues for dealing with a security challenge from China through a mix of deterrence and cooperative security approaches. The key drivers for the long-term relationship, aside from China’s domestic evolution, are the nature of Sino-US rivalry, the structure of regional economic interdependence, and the evolution of cooperative security norms in the region. Southeast Asia can have some role in shaping the last two forces, but this requires greater unity and sense of purpose in ASEAN than has been evident since the 1997 Asian economic crisis. ********** Amitav Acharya is Deputy Director and Head of Research at the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, where he also holds a professorship. He is on leave as a Professor of Political Science at York University, Toronto. He has held fellowships at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore (1987-89), Harvard Asia Center (2000-1), and the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University (2000-1). He taught at the National University of Singapore (1990- 92) and Harvard University (2001), and held an ASEM Chair in Regional Integration at the Europe-Asia Institute, University of Malaya in 2003. Among his latest publications are Constructing a Security Community in Southeast Asia: ASEAN and the Problem of Regional Order (Routledge, 2001), and Regionalism and Multilateralism: Essays on Cooperative Security in the Asia Pacific (Times Academic Press, 2002). He is a member of the Eminent Persons/Expert Group of the ASEAN Regional Forum, a member of the editorial board of the journals Pacific Review, Pacific Affairs, and Global Governance, a member of the Advisory Board of the Centre for Regional Security Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and a co-editor of the Asian Security monograph series published by Stanford University Press. His areas of specialization include regionalism and multilateralism (a current focus being a study of international cooperation on counter- terrorism), Asian regional security and international relations theory. ii ATTENTION: The Singapore Copyright Act applies to the use of this document. Nanyang Technological University Library SEEKING SECURITY IN THE DRAGON’S SHADOW: CHINA AND SOUTHEAST ASIA IN THE EMERGING ASIAN ORDER1 Introduction China’s rise as an economic and military power in the Asia Pacific region has significant implications for Southeast Asia’s strategic and economic future. It is reshaping the balance of power and posing an economic challenge of considerable magnitude to a region that had been ahead of China in terms of its economic development until the 1990s. In the economic arena, China looms both as an opportunity as well as a challenge. In the security arena, the implications of China’s military build-up are a key concern in the region, although few consider it as inevitable that China’s rise will translate into outright expansionism or a quest for strategic dominance. Furthermore, while recognizing the countervailing role of the US in correcting China’s challenge to the regional balance of power, Southeast Asian perceptions of China, being based on arguments about economic interdependence, a shared normative orientation and institutional linkages, are also independent of the US factor. To be sure, China’s future role in Southeast Asia is likely to be shaped more by
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