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Quantitative Easing: Money Supply and the Commodity Prices of Oil, Gold, and Wheat Utah State University DigitalCommons@USU All Graduate Plan B and other Reports Graduate Studies 8-2017 Quantitative Easing: Money Supply and the Commodity Prices of Oil, Gold, and Wheat Aaron Kasteler Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/gradreports Part of the Macroeconomics Commons Recommended Citation Kasteler, Aaron, "Quantitative Easing: Money Supply and the Commodity Prices of Oil, Gold, and Wheat" (2017). All Graduate Plan B and other Reports. 1037. https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/gradreports/1037 This Report is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate Studies at DigitalCommons@USU. It has been accepted for inclusion in All Graduate Plan B and other Reports by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommons@USU. For more information, please contact [email protected]. QUANTITATIVE EASING: MONEY SUPPLY AND THE COMMODITY PRICES OF OIL, GOLD, AND WHEAT by Aaron Kasteler A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE in Applied Economics UTAH STATE UNIVERSITY Logan, Utah 2017 ii COPYRIGHT NOTICE The copyright of this thesis belongs to the author under the terms of the United States Constitution, 1909 Copyright Act, and the 1976 Copyright Act. Subsequent acknowledgement must always be made of the use of any material contained in, or derived from, this thesis. I declare that this thesis embodies the results of my own research or advanced studies and that it has been composed by me. Where appropriate, I have made acknowledgement to the work of others. Signed, Aaron Kasteler iii ABSTRACT QUANTITATIVE EASING: MONEY SUPPLY AND THE COMMODITY PRICES OF OIL, GOLD, AND WHEAT by Aaron Kasteler, MASTER OF APPLIED ECONOMICS Utah State University, 2017 Major Professor: Dr. Dillon Feuz Department: Applied Economics The recent financial crisis has raised awareness among the public regarding the role the Federal Reserve has in the broader economy, primarily as it pertains to overall price levels, and especially to commodities. Has the implementation of quantitative easing had an effect on underlying commodity prices and, if so, to what degree? Specifically, has the rise in the money supply created a subsequent rise in prices that are transferred onto the end consumer? This paper surveys the recent empirical evidence of the policy of quantitative easing as it relates to the money supply and commodity prices. It then uses this evidence to analyze the macroeconomic effect of this policy on such prices. It is concluded that this form of quantitative easing has had an impact on overall commodity prices and that the long-term results of this policy are as yet undecided. This paper ends with a discussion of the potential avenues of research that may be pursued in vi the future to expand the understanding of money supply and the use of quantitative easing as a viable instrument of monetary policy. PUBLIC ABSTRACT First Name: Aaron Middle Name: Last Name: Kasteler Adviser's First Name: Dillon Adviser's Last Name: Feuz Graduation: 2017 Department: Applied Economics Degree: MA Title: Quantitative Easing: Money Supply and the Commodity Prices of Oil, Gold, and Wheat The recent financial crisis has raised the awareness among the public regarding the role the Federal Reserve has in the broader economy, primarily as it pertains to overall price levels, and especially to commodities. Has the implementation of quantitative easing had a positive or negative effect on underlying commodity prices and, if so, to what degree? Specifically, has the rise in the money supply created a subsequent rise in prices that are transferred onto the end consumer? This paper surveys the recent empirical evidence of the policy of quantitative easing as it relates to the money supply and commodity prices. It then uses this evidence to analyze the macroeconomic effect of this policy on such prices. It is concluded that this form of Quantitative Easing has had an impact on overall commodity prices and that the long-term results of this policy are as yet undecided. This paper ends with a discussion of the potential avenues of research that may be pursued in the future to expand the understanding of money supply and the use of quantitative easing as a viable instrument of monetary policy. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to acknowledge the following who have helped in this undertaking. Dillon Feuz, a professor in the department of Applied Economics at Utah State University, was my academic advisor and major professor. Hernan Tejeda, another professor in the department of Applied Economics at Utah State University, assisted me with the application of the models and methods used in this thesis. Steve Bannister, department of Economics at the University of Utah, was instrumental in verifying that my understanding of these methods was accurate. Brigham Forrest spent long hours, freely given, in the creation of a finished product. Ron and Carolyn Kasteler provided constant and unwavering support during this process. Thank you again. CONTENTS COPYRIGHT NOTICE ...................................................................................................... ii ABSTRACT ....................................................................................................................... iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................... vi LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................. ix CHAPTER 1 ....................................................................................................................... 1 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 1 Objective .................................................................................................................................... 11 CHAPTER 2 ..................................................................................................................... 13 REVIEW OF THE LITURATURE .................................................................................. 13 Monetary Theory and Money Supply ........................................................................................ 14 Unconventional Monetary Policy .............................................................................................. 15 Monetary Policy and Inflation ................................................................................................... 18 Relationship between Monetary Policy and Commodity Prices ................................................ 20 Quantitative Easing and the American Economy ...................................................................... 22 Inflationary Contraction ............................................................................................................. 23 Effects of Monetary Policy on Commodity Prices .................................................................... 24 US-Effects of Short Term Real Interest Rates on Real Commodities Prices ............................ 28 Conclusion of Literature Review ............................................................................................... 33 CHAPTER 3 ..................................................................................................................... 34 METHODOLOGY ........................................................................................................... 34 viii What is Quantitative Easing? ..................................................................................................... 34 Money Supply as calculated by M2 ........................................................................................... 35 Oil .............................................................................................................................................. 37 Wheat ......................................................................................................................................... 37 Gold ........................................................................................................................................... 38 Analysis Method ........................................................................................................................ 39 The VAR Model ........................................................................................................................ 40 CHAPTER 4 ..................................................................................................................... 42 RESULTS ......................................................................................................................... 42 VECM Model ............................................................................................................................ 50 CHAPTER 5 ..................................................................................................................... 54 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................... 54 REFERENCES ................................................................................................................. 56 APPENDIX ....................................................................................................................... 60 LIST OF TABLES TABLE Page 1. VAR Estimation ...............................................................................................
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