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Die Weltwirtschaft Im Ungleichgewicht

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Die Weltwirtschaft Im Ungleichgewicht Juni 2011 Expertisen und Dokumentationen zur Wirtschafts- und Sozialpolitik Diskurs Die Weltwirtschaft im Ungleichgewicht Ursachen, Gefahren, Korrekturen I II Expertise im Auftrag der Abteilung Wirtschafts- und Sozialpolitik der Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung Die Weltwirtschaft im Ungleichgewicht Ursachen, Gefahren, Korrekturen Jan Priewe WISO Diskurs Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung Inhaltsverzeichnis Abbildungs- und Tabellenverzeichnis 3 Abkürzungsverzeichnis 5 Vorbemerkung 6 Zusammenfassung 7 1. Was sind die Probleme? 9 2. Wann sind Leistungsbilanzungleichgewichte problematisch? – Theoretische Analyse 12 2.1 Grundbegriffe 12 2.2 Saldenmechanik und Kreislaufzusammenhang 14 2.3 Triebkräfte für Leistungsbilanzungleichgewichte 17 2.4 Sind Leistungsbilanzungleichgewichte stabil und nachhaltig? 21 2.5 Korrekturmechanismen durch Märkte 26 2.6 Gute und schlechte Leistungsbilanzungleichgewichte 28 2.7 Fazit 33 3. Empirischer Überblick über globale Ungleichgewichte 35 4. Wie es zum Anstieg der Ungleichgewichte in den Jahren 2000 - 2008 kam 44 4.1 Die Entstehung des Defi zits in den USA 44 4.2 Die Entstehung hoher Überschüsse in China, Japan und Deutschland 49 4.3 Fazit 57 5. „Gute“ oder „schlechte“ globale Ungleichgewichte? – Interpretationen 59 6. Europäische und US-amerikanische Ungleichgewichte – Unterschiede und Gemeinsamkeiten 69 7. Korrekturen gefährlicher Ungleichgewichte 73 8. Schlussfolgerungen 82 Literaturverzeichnis 87 Anhang 90 Der Autor 99 Diese Expertise wird von der Abteilung Wirtschafts- und Sozialpolitik der Friedrich-Ebert- Stiftung veröffentlicht. Die Ausführungen und Schlussfolgerungen sind vom Autor in eigener Verantwortung vorgenommen worden. Impressum: © Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung | Herausgeber: Abteilung Wirtschafts- und Sozialpolitik der Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung | Godesberger Allee 149 | 53175 Bonn | Fax 0228 883 9205 | www.fes.de/wiso | Gestaltung: pellens.de | Foto: dpa Picture Alliance | bub Bonner Universitäts-Buchdruckerei | ISBN: 978 - 3 - 86872 - 778 - 4 | WISO Wirtschafts- und Sozialpolitik Diskurs Abbildungs- und Tabellenverzeichnis Abbildungen im Text Abbildung 1: Leistungsbilanzsaldo in % des BIP – China, Deutschland, Japan, USA 9 Schema 1: Zahlungsbilanzen von In- und Ausland im Zwei-Länder-Modell 13 Schema 2: Sparen und Investieren im Zwei-Länder-Modell 15 Abbildung 2: Leistungsbilanzsalden in laufenden US-$ für die wichtigsten Überschuss- und Defi zitländer 36 Schema 3: Drei Gruppen globaler Ungleichgewichte 37 Abbildung 3a: 46 Länder mit Leistungsbilanzüberschuss 2008 – in % des globalen Leistungsbilanzüberschusses 37 Abbildung 3b: 103 Länder mit Leistungsbilanzdefi zit 2008 – in % des globalen Leistungsbilanzdefi zits 38 Abbildung 4: Leistungsbilanzsalden in % des BIP 2008 in 140 Ländern 39 Abbildung 5: Währungsreserven ausgewählter Länder bzw. Ländergruppen in Mrd. US-$ 40 Abbildung 6: Nettoauslandsvermögen ausgewählter Überschuss- und Defi zitländer 40 Abbildung 7: Leistungsbilanzsalden in % des BIP in der Euro-Zone 42 Abbildung 8: Leistungsbilanzsalden in der EU-27 in % des BIP – Durchschnitt 2000 - 2009 43 Abbildung 9: USA: Struktur und Entwicklung der Nachfrage – in konstanten Preisen 45 Abbildung 10: Leistungsbilanz der USA in % des BIP 46 Abbildung 11: Handelsbilanzsaldo der USA mit Partnerländern – ohne Dienstleistungen 47 Abbildung 12: Reale effektive Wechselkurse 1980 -2009 – Japan, Deutschland, China, USA 48 Abbildung 13: Nettovermögensposition der USA 1976 - 2009 in % des BIP 49 Abbildung 14: Exporte und Importe in % des BIP – USA, Deutschland, Japan und China 50 Abbildung 15: Sparen und Investitionen in % des Bruttonationaleinkommens bzw. des BIP in großen Leistungsbilanzüberschussländern 51 Abbildung 16: Japan: Struktur und Entwicklung der Nachfrage – in konstanten Preisen 52 Abbildung 17: Deutschland: Struktur und Entwicklung der Nachfrage – in konstanten Preisen 52 Abbildung 18: China: Struktur und Entwicklung der Nachfrage – in konstanten Preisen 53 Abbildung 19: Handelsbilanz Chinas (ohne Dienstleistungen) gegenüber Partnerländern in Mrd. US-$ 54 Abbildung 20: Leistungsbilanzsaldo Deutschlands mit Partnerländern 55 Abbildung 21: Lohnstückkosten in jeweiliger Währung – Index 1998 = 100 56 Abbildung 22: Leistungsbilanzsaldo und Lohnstückkosten in Deutschland 57 3 WISO Diskurs Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung Tabellen im Anhang Tabelle A1: Salden der Leistungsbilanz, des Budgets und des Privatsektors in % des BIP: Ausgewählte Leistungsbilanzdefi zitländer 91 Tabelle A2: Leistungsbilanzsaldo in % des BIP in der Europäischen Union und in OECD-Ländern 92 Tabelle A3: Sparen und Investitionen in % des Bruttonationaleinkommens bzw. des BIP in ausgewählten Defi zitländern 92 Abbildungen im Anhang Abbildung A1: Globale Leistungsbilanzungleichgewichte 2008 – 150 Länder in Mrd. US-$ 93 Abbildung A2: Salden der Leistungsbilanz, des Budgets und des Privatsektors in OECD-Ländern 2008 in % des BIP 94 Abbildung A3: Bruttoauslandsvermögen der USA in Mrd. US-$ 95 Abbildung A4: Bruttovermögen des Auslands in den USA in Mrd. US-$ 95 Abbildung A5: Wechselkurse – lokale Währung je US-$ 96 Abbildung A6: Leistungsbilanz Japans in % des BIP 96 Abbildung A7: Leistungsbilanz Chinas in % des BIP 97 Abbildung A8: Leistungsbilanz der USA in Mrd. US-$ 97 Abbildung A9: Leistungsbilanz Deutschlands in % des BIP 98 Abbildung A10: Deutschland – regionalisierter Leistungsbilanzsaldo 2008 in Mrd. € 98 4 WISO Wirtschafts- und Sozialpolitik Diskurs Abkürzungsverzeichnis BIP Bruttoinlandsprodukt EK Europäische Kommission EU Europäische Union EZB Europäische Zentralbank GSG „Global Saving Glut“ IWF Internationaler Währungsfonds KBS Kapitalbilanzsaldo LB Leistungsbilanz LBD Leistungsbilanzdefi zit LBS Leistungsbilanzsaldo NEVE Nettoerwerbs- und Vermögenseinkommen gegenüber der übrigen Welt NVP Nettovermögensposition gegenüber dem Ausland SVR Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung SWP Stabilitäts- und Wachstumspakt SZR Sonderziehungsrechte WB Weltbank 5 WISO Diskurs Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung Vorbemerkung Die Weltwirtschaft scheint vordergründig be- hindert bzw. verringert werden können. Er trachtet auf einem erfolgreichen Weg aus der Fi- kommt im Rahmen seiner Analyse zu dem Ergeb- nanz- und Wirtschaftskrise zu sein. Insbesondere nis, dass die globalen Ungleichgewichte neben die boomenden Volkswirtschaften Chinas, In- den Fehlentwicklungen auf den Finanzmärkten diens, Brasiliens, Russlands und einiger anderer wesentlich zur Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise bei- Schwellen- und Entwicklungsländer sind es, die getragen haben. Große globale Ungleichgewichte die weltwirtschaftliche Erholung gegenwärtig sind demnach – anders als oftmals behauptet – in vorantreiben. Hiervon profi tieren auch die Indus- den seltensten Fällen gut und nachhaltig. Sie tra- trieländer, allen voran Deutschland dank seiner gen vielmehr zur Entstehung von Vermögens- starken Exportorientierung. Dies spiegelt sich in preisblasen bei und führen über kurz oder lang in den nach der Krise wieder hohen Exportüber- Überschuldungs- und Zahlungsbilanzkrisen in schüssen und dem lange Zeit in Deutschland den Defi zitländern. Hiervon gehen auch erheb- nicht mehr für möglich gehaltenen Wirtschafts- liche Risiken für die Weltkonjunktur und damit aufschwung mit Rekordwachstumsraten und im- letztlich auch für die Überschussländer aus. mer weiter sinkenden Arbeitslosenzahlen wider. Diese Analyseergebnisse haben wichtige Dennoch lassen sich in der Weltwirtschaft wirtschaftspolitische Implikationen. Soll sich die auch Entwicklungen beobachten, die durchaus Weltwirtschaft in Zukunft auf einem starken, Anlass zur Sorge geben. An vorderster Front ste- nachhaltigen und ausgeglichenen Wachstums- hen hierbei die großen globalen Ungleichgewich- pfad ohne Krisen fortentwickeln, gilt es, nicht nur te in den Leistungs- und Kapitalbilanzen, die be- die Finanzmärkte besser und effektiver zu regu- reits im Vorfeld der Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise lieren, sondern auch das Problem der globalen zunehmend als problematisch angesehen wurden Ungleichgewichte konsequent anzugehen und zu und die auch nach der Krise weiterhin fortbe- lösen. Die Erfahrungen rund um die Finanz- und stehen. Viele Defi zitländer kämpfen gegenwärtig Wirtschaftskrise zeigen dabei, dass man sich nicht mit dem Problem einer lahmenden oder gar rezes- allein auf rein marktgetriebene Anpassungspro- siven konjunkturellen Entwicklung, hoher und zesse verlassen sollte, sondern dass die Politik die steigender privater und öffentlicher Verschuldung notwendigen Korrekturen aktiv wirtschafts-, wäh- und der damit verbundenen Gefahr von Zahlungs- rungs- und fi nanzpolitisch initiieren, fl ankieren bilanz- und Währungskrisen. Viele Überschuss- und steuern sollte, um die Entstehung größerer länder sehen sich dagegen momentan mit dem globaler Ungleichgewichte und die damit ein- Problem konfrontiert, eine Überhitzung der Wirt- hergehenden Risiken im Vorhinein zu vermei- schaftsentwicklung, spekulative und destabilisie- den. Hierbei ist ein gemeinsames Vorgehen so- rende Kapitalzufl üsse und die Entstehung neuer wohl der Überschuss- als auch der Defi zitländer Vermögenspreisblasen zu verhindern. unabdingbar. Die vorliegende Studie zeigt auf, Vor diesem Hintergrund hat die Friedrich- mit welchen Politikmaßnahmen eine stabilere Ebert-Stiftung an Prof. Dr. Jan Priewe von der weltwirtschaftliche Entwicklung erreicht werden Hochschule für Wirtschaft und Technik (HTW) kann. Berlin einen Forschungsauftrag vergeben, um der Frage nachzugehen, ob und inwieweit die glo- balen Ungleichgewichte zur Finanz- und Wirt- Markus Schreyer schaftskrise
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