Infrastructure of Ideas/Intelligent Infrastructure

The Buttonwood Gathering A world unbalanced New York, October 26th-27th, 2011

Synopsis

Three years ago, with Lehman Brothers’ collapse and the precipitous deepening of the financial crisis, the outlook for the global economy was dire. Today, the huge global imbalances that were the backdrop to the financial crisis in 2008 are arguably worse than ever. Countries from America to Japan sag under the weight of enormous debts which, since the crisis, have only grown bigger. In Europe, tension between highly indebted “peripheral” countries and the big European economies that are expected to rescue them threaten the future of the euro itself.

Meanwhile, emerging economies from China to Brazil, which have surged in recent years, are battling the growing pains that come with their fast-growing economies—from inflation to widening inequality. The result is a complex shift in the balance of economic power—not simply from the West to the “rest”, but from countries lacking in natural resources to those rich in them, from those deeply indebted to those with savings to spare.

What are the implications of the ascendance of emerging economies, especially China, for the West and the global economy? Are global imbalances a problem that need to be resolved—and, if so, who benefits from a re-balancing? What are the consequences of the rich world’s addiction to debt? Who are the winners and losers in a world of scarce natural resources? This year’s Buttonwood Gathering will bring together thought leaders, practitioners and provocateurs in the international finance community to tackle the tough challenge of how to put the world economy on a more balanced footing.

Chair person

John Micklethwait, Editor-in-Chief, The Economist

Speakers

Sheila Bair, former Chairperson, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Ed Balls, Member of Parliament for Morley and Outwood, Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer, UK Parliament Josh Barro, Walter B. Wriston Fellow, Manhattan Institute for Policy Research Kyle Bass, Managing Partner, Hayman Capital Zanny Minton Beddoes, Economics Editor, The Economist Matthew Bishop, US Business Editor and New York Bureau Chief, The Economist Mark Blyth, Professor of International Political Economy, Watson Institute at Brown University David Bonderman, Founding Partner, TPG Capital John Burbank, Chief Investment Officer, Passport Capital Mark Carney, Governor, Bank of Canada

H. Rodgin Cohen, Senior Chairman, Sullivan & Cromwell Philip Coggan, Capital Markets Editor and Buttonwood Columnist, The Economist Ray Dalio, Founder and Co-chief Investment Officer, Bridgewater Associates Mitchell E. Daniels Jr, Governor of Indiana John Dugan, Partner, Covington & Burling Tom Easton, US Finance Editor, The Economist Diana Farrell, Director, McKinsey & Company Joachim Fels, Head of Global Economics Team, Morgan Stanley Roger Ferguson, President and Chief Executive Officer, TIAA-CREF Peter Fisher, Senior Managing Director and Head of Fixed Income, BlackRock Austan Goolsbee, former Chairman, President's Council of Economic Advisers, and Professor of Economics, University of Chicago Booth School of Business Alan Greenspan, President, Greenspan Associates Hu Shuli, Editor-in-Chief, Caixin Media Greg Ip, US Economics Editor, The Economist Tom Kaplan, Chairman, Electrum Group of Companies Lawrence Katz, Elisabeth Allison Professor of Economics, Harvard University Jacob Kirkegaard, Research Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics Renato Klarnet, Co-founder and Member of Executive Committee, G5 Advisors Donald Kohn, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution Jeff Madrick, Senior Fellow, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis, The New School Dannel P. Malloy, Governor of Connecticut Heidi Miller, President, International, JPMorgan Lawrence Mishel, President, Economic Policy Institute James Owens, former Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Caterpillar Stephen Pagliuca, Managing Director, Bain Capital Adam Posen, Monetary Policy Committee Member, Bank of England Jay Powell, Visiting Scholar, Bipartisan Policy Center Steven Rattner, former Counselor to the Secretary of Treasury, US Treasury Department Terra Lawson-Remer, Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations, and Assistant Professor of International Affairs, The New School Stephen Roach, Non-executive Chairman, Morgan Stanley Asia, and Senior Lecturer, Yale School of Management Nathan Sheets, Global Head of International Economics, Citigroup Gene B. Sperling, Director, National Economic Council Lawrence H. Summers, President Emeritus and Charles W. Eliot University Professor, Harvard University Steven Tananbaum, Managing Partner and Chief Investment Officer, GoldenTree Asset Management Axel Weber, Visiting Professor of Economics, University of Chicago Booth School of Business Min Zhu, Deputy Managing Director, International Monetary Fund

Programme

Day one – Wednesday October 26th 2011

1.00 pm Registration and refreshments

1.45 pm Welcome remarks John Micklethwait, Editor-in-Chief, The Economist

2.00 pm Global economic outlook The future of the world economy and its many challenges

David Bonderman, Founding Partner, TPG Capital Adam Posen, Monetary Policy Committee Member, Bank of England Min Zhu, Deputy Managing Director, International Monetary Fund Moderator: Zanny Minton Beddoes, Economics Editor, The Economist

2.45 pm The Bagehot lecture Gene B. Sperling, Director, National Economic Council

3.15 pm Afternoon break

3.45 pm Leading indicator Mark Blyth, Professor of International Political Economy, Watson Institute at Brown University

4.00 pm A world awash: debt and its consequences  What is the biggest threat to the global economy: corporate, household or government debt? What has fuelled these debt levels?  What are the prospects for repairing household balance sheets in America and beyond? How does the current state of corporate balance sheets affect the recovery globally?  What are the prospects for rebalancing the American and Chinese economies?

Kyle Bass, Managing Partner, Hayman Capital Stephen Pagliuca, Managing Director, Bain Capital Nathan Sheets, Global Head of International Economics, Citigroup Moderator: Greg Ip, US Economics Editor, The Economist

4.45 pm The backlash: Zuccotti Park and beyond

Jeff Madrick, Senior Fellow, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis, The New School

Lawrence Mishel, President, Economic Policy Institute Terra Lawson-Remer, Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations, and Assistant Professor of International Affairs, The New School Moderator: Tom Easton, US Finance Editor, The Economist

5.15 pm An interview with Mark Carney, Governor, Bank of Canada Interviewer: John Micklethwait, Editor-in-Chief, The Economist

5.45 pm Cocktail reception

6.30 pm The Buttonwood Gathering dinner Sponsored by RBC Capital Markets Introduction: Mark Standish, President & Co-Chief Executive Officer, RBC Capital Markets

The rearview mirror: a critique of public policy  Has America’s response to the financial crisis worked? What is left in America’s arsenal to boost its still sluggish economy?  How have different European countries responded to the financial crisis? In particular, how have austerity policies fared?  How have policies in America and Europe affected the global economy?

Ed Balls, Member of Parliament for Morley and Outwood, Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer, UK Parliament Austan Goolsbee, Chairman, President's Council of Economic Advisers, and Professor of Economics, University of Chicago Booth School of Business Alan Greenspan, President, Greenspan Associates Axel Weber, Visiting Professor of Economics, University of Chicago Booth School of Business Moderator: John Micklethwait, Editor-in-Chief, The Economist

8.30 pm End of panel discussion

9.00 pm End of day one

Day two – Thursday October 27th2011

8.00 am Registration and Buttonwood breakfast

8.45 am Opening remarks and recap of day one John Micklethwait, Editor-in-Chief, The Economist

9.00 am A video interview with Hu Shuli, Editor-in-Chief, Caixin Media

Interviewer: John Micklethwait, Editor-in-Chief, The Economist

9.20 am A gathering storm: the strain between Europe’s centre and periphery  How can Europe’s troubled countries (Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain) find their way to a sound financial footing?  What are the consequences of large creditor losses or a sovereign default within the euro?  Is a two-speed Europe politically sustainable?

Joachim Fels, Head of Global Economics Team, Morgan Stanley Jacob Kirkegaard, Research Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics Steven Tananbaum, Managing Partner and Chief Investment Officer, GoldenTree Asset Management Moderator: Zanny Minton Beddoes, Economics Editor, The Economist

10.00 am A video interview with Mitchell E. Daniels Jr, Governor of Indiana Interviewer: Tom Easton, US Finance Editor, The Economist

10.15 am Underwater: America’s pension crisis  How significant is the pensions shortfall?  Do states have the legal right to reduce their pensions burden?  Will pensions shortfalls lead to big tax increases or bond defaults?

Josh Barro, Walter B. Wriston Fellow, Manhattan Institute for Policy Research Roger Ferguson, President and Chief Executive Officer, TIAA-CREF Dannel P. Malloy, Governor of Connecticut Moderator: Philip Coggan, Capital Markets Editor and Buttonwood Columnist, The Economist

11.00 am Morning break and refreshments

11.30 am The jobless era: unemployment and what can be done

Lawrence Katz, Elisabeth Allison Professor of Economics, Harvard University James Owens, former Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Caterpillar Steven Rattner, former Counselor to the Secretary of Treasury, US Treasury Department Moderator: Matthew Bishop, US Business Editor and New York Bureau Chief, The Economist

12.15 pm Emerging giants: China, Brazil and the emerging economies  Will the economic growth of China, Brazil and the “rest” continue to outpace that of the advanced world?

 What are the “growing pains” facing China, Brazil, India and others—from inflation to urbanisation?  How will China transition to a more consumption-driven economy?

Heidi Miller, President, International, JPMorgan Renato Klarnet, Co-founder and Member of Executive Committee, G5 Advisors Stephen Roach, Non-executive Chairman, Morgan Stanley Asia, and Senior Lecturer, Yale School of Management Moderator: Philip Coggan, Capital Markets Editor and Buttonwood Columnist, The Economist

1.00 pm Lunch

2.30 pm Leading indicator Ray Dalio, Founder and Co-chief Investment Officer, Bridgewater Associates

2.45 pm Scarcer and scarcer: competition for commodities  Who are the winners and losers in a commodity-scarce world?  Is resource scarcity the new normal?  How can the world adapt?

John Burbank, Founder, Passport Capital Tom Kaplan, Chairman, Electrum Group of Companies Moderator: Matthew Bishop, US Business Editor and New York Bureau Chief, The Economist

3.30 pm Leading indicator Sheila Bair, former Chairperson, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

3.45 pm Afternoon break

4.15 pm What happens when a global bank fails? An Economist simulation Sponsored by Allianz Global Investors

H. Rodgin Cohen, Senior Chairman, Sullivan & Cromwell John Dugan, Partner, Covington & Burling Diana Farrell, Director, McKinsey & Company Peter Fisher, Senior Managing Director and Head of Fixed Income, BlackRock Donald Kohn, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution Jay Powell, Visiting Scholar, Bipartisan Policy Center Lawrence H. Summers, President Emeritus and Charles W. Eliot University Professor, Harvard University

5.30 pm De-brief: Evaluating the results Greg Ip, US Economics Editor, The Economist

6.00 pm Closing remarks