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The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change” by N THE CHRONICLE OF HIGHER EDUCATION I OCT OBER 25, 2013 People Voice on Climate Change Moves to Harvard By JENNY ROGERS Ms. Oreskes, who is 54, earned change consensus, she says. "If a professor of en­ a Ph.D. in geQlogical research anything, I'm an advocate for un­ vironmental stud­ AOMI ORESKES never in­ and the history of science from derstanding why this issue is im­ ies, bioethics, and tended to become a spokes­ Stanford University in 1990. M­ portant." philosophy at New N person on climate change or ter starting out as a geologist, she To make decisions, she says, York University. science. Then she published an es­ quickly became interested in how policy makers should understand They are studying say in the journal Science in 2004, scientific consensus forms. She "where there's scientific consensus how scientists eval­ in which she laid out the broad found a niche in the history of sci­ and where there isn't." uate one another's scientific consensus that global cli­ ence, eventually specializing in A former colleague, Veerab­ work for large-scale mate change is occurring, and that cold-war-era and contemporary hadran Ramanathan, says Ms. assessments that it is affected by human activities. scientific work. Oreskes's departure was a loss for have influenced en­ Now the woman who brought Her 2004 analysis of climate­ San Diego. "She is one of the few vironmental-policy the world that message has moved change studies was cited in An who talk about contemporary sci­ decisions, such as from the University of California at Inconvenient Truth, a 2006 docu­ ence," says Mr. Ramanathan, a pro­ the reports of the San Diego, where she was a profes­ mentary in which Al Gore warns of fessor of atmospheric and climate Intergovernmen­ sor of history and science studies the consequences of global warm­ sciences at the Scripps Institution tal Panel on Cli­ for 15 years, to Harvard University ing. Her 2010 book, Merchants of of Oceanography there. "She comes mate Change. Or, as a professor of the history of sci­ Doubt, written with the science to a conclusion, and she doesn't shy as Ms. Oreskes puts ence and an affiliated professor of historian Erik M. Conway, stirred away from saying it in the strongest it, "How do scien­ earth and planetary sciences. more controversy. In it, they ar­ sense possible." . tists make sense "I was just ready for a change," gued that certain scientists ob­ Ms. Browne says Ms. Oreskes of what they know she says ofher move this summer. scured the truth in order to dis­ has been "brave" in her open ex­ on behalf of other She had considered environmental credit sound scientific findings on ploration of the moral founda­ people?" Naomi Oreskes jobs but decided she wanted to stay the risks of smoking, global warm­ tion of science. "We are absolutely The question of in academe and focus on the history ing, and other issues. with her in feeling that if there scientific assessment is "so interdis­ and eventually teach a course with of science. "It was a conscim:s deci­ Supporters of those scientists are things that need to be said, we ciplinary," she says. "Science, policy, Ms. Browne on the history of the sion to hold onto that core." have fought back in numerous arti­ should be saying them." jealousy, competition-it's a great, earth. .Janet Browne, chair of the de­ cles and Internet postings that dis­ At Harvard, Ms. Oreskes is great topic." Ms. Oreskes looks forward to partment of the history of science pute the value of Ms. Oreskes's own teaching a graduate introductory There is potential for her to be­ seeing how her research evolves. at Harvard, says she and other work. A document on the Web site course on the history of science and come involved in other interdis­ "If we knew everything, we could members of the hiring committee of the Heartland Institute, a think finishing a book on the history of ciplinary work at Harvard. Ms. close our books and lock our doors were impressed with Ms. Oreskes's tank with libertarian leanings, cold-war oceanography. She has Browne hopes Ms. Oreskes might and say this project of science is expertise and "engaging" way of calls her stand on climate change noted that oceanographers were do research into marine and naval done," she says. "Obviously, that's teaching. "an anti-science position akin to among the first to find evidence of technologies during the cold war not the case." • "Naomi is extremely famous in witchcraft." global warming. our small community" of science Ms. Oreskes says she is not an She is also deep into her latest historians "and indeed famous out­ advocate for any policy but not a research project, in conjunction side of it," Ms. Browne says. "She is "bystander," either. with Michael Oppenheimer, a widely respected and regarded as a "I don't shy away from what I professor of geosciences and in­ terrific public spokesperson for the consider to be the intellectual im­ ternational affairs at Princeton 1 QUOTED value of what we do." plications of my work" on climate- University, and Dale .Jamieson, The golden al!e ofhio-hA'r orl:o.~""-~-- ESSAY BEYOND THE IVORY TOWER This year's essay series highlights the benefits that scientists, science, The Scientific Consensus and technology have brought to society throughout history. on Climate Change Naomi Oreskes climate change is natural. However, none olicy-makers and the media, particular- Academy of Sciences report, Climate of these papers argued that point. ly in the United States, frequently assert Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key This analysis shows that scientists publish- Pthat climate science is highly uncertain. Questions, begins: “Greenhouse gases are ing in the peer-reviewed literature agree with Some have used this as an argument against accumulating in Earth’s atmosphere as a re- IPCC, the National Academy of Sciences, and adopting strong measures to reduce green- sult of human activities, causing surface air the public statements of their professional so- house gas emissions. For example, while dis- temperatures and subsurface ocean temper- cieties. Politicians, economists, journalists, cussing a major U.S. Environmental Pro- atures to rise” [p. 1 in (5)]. The report ex- and others may have the impression of confu- tection Agency report on the risks of climate plicitly asks whether the IPCC assessment is sion, disagreement, or discord among climate change, then–EPA administrator Christine a fair summary of professional scientific scientists, but that impression is incorrect. Whitman argued, “As [the report] went thinking, and answers yes: “The IPCC’s The scientific consensus might, of through review, there conclusion that most of the course, be wrong. If the history of science was less consensus on Without substantial disagreement, observed warming of the teaches anything, it is humility, and no one the science and conclu- scientists find human activities last 50 years is likely to can be faulted for failing to act on what is sions on climate change” have been due to the in- not known. But our grandchildren will are heating the Earth’s surface. on October 29, 2013 (1). Some corporations crease in greenhouse gas surely blame us if they find that we under- whose revenues might concentrations accurately stood the reality of anthropogenic climate be adversely affected by controls on carbon reflects the current thinking of the scientific change and failed to do anything about it. dioxide emissions have also alleged major community on this issue” [p. 3 in (5)]. Many details about climate interactions uncertainties in the science (2). Such state- Others agree. The American Meteoro- are not well understood, and there are am- ments suggest that there might be substantive logical Society (6), the American Geo- ple grounds for continued research to pro- disagreement in the scientific community physical Union (7), and the American vide a better basis for understanding cli- about the reality of anthropogenic climate Association for the Advancement of Science mate dynamics. The question of what to do change. This is not the case. (AAAS) all have issued statements in recent about climate change is also still open. But The scientific consensus is clearly ex- years concluding that the evidence for human there is a scientific consensus on the reality www.sciencemag.org pressed in the reports of the Inter- modification of climate is compelling (8). of anthropogenic climate change. Climate governmental Panel on Climate Change The drafting of such reports and state- scientists have repeatedly tried to make this (IPCC). Created in 1988 by the World ments involves many opportunities for clear. It is time for the rest of us to listen. Meteorological Organization and the United comment, criticism, and revision, and it is Nations Environmental Programme, IPCC’s not likely that they would diverge greatly References and Notes purpose is to evaluate the state of climate sci- from the opinions of the societies’ mem- 1. A. C. Revkin, K. Q. Seelye, New York Times, 19 June 2003, A1. ence as a basis for informed policy action, bers. Nevertheless, they might downplay 2. S. van den Hove, M. Le Menestrel, H.-C. de Bettignies, Downloaded from primarily on the basis of peer-reviewed and legitimate dissenting opinions. That hy- Climate Policy 2 (1), 3 (2003). 3. See www.ipcc.ch/about/about.htm. published scientific literature (3). In its most pothesis was tested by analyzing 928 ab- 4. J. J. McCarthy et al., Eds., Climate Change 2001: recent assessment, IPCC states unequivocal- stracts, published in refereed scientific Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (Cambridge ly that the consensus of scientific opinion is journals between 1993 and 2003, and list- Univ.
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