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Trends in Singles Play Intensity on the ATP Tour

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Trends in Singles Play Intensity on the ATP Tour Trends in Singles Play Intensity on the ATP Tour Stephanie A. Kovalchik RAND Corporation NESSIS 2013 1 of 34 Has Tennis Become Too Demanding? John Isner and Nicholas Mahut, Wimbledon 2010 2 of 34 Study Objective Was the Isner-Mahut 11hr and 5-minute marathon at the 2010 Wimbledon an anomaly or a sign that match play has gotten increasingly arduous over time? This study sought to shed light on this question by analyzing trends in matches played and match duration over 20 years of the ATP Tour. 3 of 34 ATP Dataset Years 1991-2012 Tournaments All 250 Level and Higher∗ Play Singles Only Players End-of-Year Top 100 Total Players 482 Total Matches 100,460 (Qualifying+) Source www.atpworldtour.com * Excluding Davis Cup and the Olympics 4 of 34 500 Series and Above: Tournaments & Surfaces 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 Grass 15 14 Carpet 13 12 Hard 11 Clay 10 Total Tournaments 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Champ Series Super 9 Tennis Masters Series ATP 1000 5 of 34 500 Series and Above: Tournaments & Surfaces • Tournaments in the 500 series and higher declined by 2 between 2003-2008, returning to the number 24 of the mid-1990s with the introduction of the Masters 1000s in 2009. • Over the first 20 years of the ATP Tour, carpet has been displaced by the hard court surface, which now makes up 70% of the most prestigious tournaments on the Tour. • Grass has consistently been the least-played surface, with just 1 tournament above the 250 level. 6 of 34 Q. Are ATP players playing more matches today than 20 years ago? Andy Murray 7 of 34 50 Total ATP Matches Per Year 48 46 44 Total Matches (Median) 42 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Tour Year 8 of 34 30 Total ATP Matches Per Year By Surface 25 20 Grass Carpet 15 Hard Clay Total Matches 10 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Tour Year 9 of 34 Total ATP Matches Per Year • More matches were played per season in the mid-1990s than any later time in Tour history. • The mean number of matches reached a low of 42 in 2004, a difference of 8 from the high of 50 in 1993. • The number of matches play has been rising steeply since the mid-2000s. 10 of 34 Total ATP Matches Per Year By Surface • Play on carpet surface made up 20% of Tour play in the early 1990s but has now been entirely displaced. • As play on clay has declined, hard court play has steadily increased, sharply since the mid-2000s. • The proportion of play on grass has remained relatively constant. • Today’s ATP top 100 player will play an average of 27 matches on hard, 13 on clay, and 5 on grass court surfaces. 11 of 34 Q. Are players investing more in the top-tier tournaments today than in the past? Roger Federer 12 of 34 Increasing Concentration on 500-Level and Above 60 55 50 Percentage of MatchesOver250 Level 45 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Tour Year 13 of 34 Q. How has the number of points per match changed over Tour history? Novak Djokovic and Juan Martin Del Potro 14 of 34 162.5 Total Points Per Match 160.0 157.5 Total Points 155.0 152.5 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Tour Year 15 of 34 200 Total Points Per Match By Surface Grass 180 Carpet Hard Total Points Clay 160 140 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Tour Year 16 of 34 Total Points Per Match • A 6-point decline in the average points per match is due to changes on grass and hard court. • Matches on grass continue to take the most points to play. In 2012, the average grass court match took 30 more points than hard or clay court matches. • The points per match for clay and hard court matches have been historically close, but clay court matches have exceeded hard court in recent years. 17 of 34 Q. Has the intensity of rallies on the ATP increased over time? Novak Djokovic 18 of 34 0.700 Play Intensity Overall 0.675 0.650 0.625 Minutes PerPoint(Intensity) 0.600 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Tour Year 19 of 34 Play Intensity By Surface 0.70 0.65 Grass Carpet Hard Clay 0.60 Match Duration (minutes) 0.55 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Tour Year 20 of 34 Play Intensity • After a dip in the intensity of play in the mid-1990s, the length of rallies has been on rise. • In 2012, the average length of points was 42 seconds overall (including play and time between points) ! the longest duration in ATP Tour history. • The most dramatic rise in point lengths has occurred for grass court play. • Although the average intensity of rallies has always been greatest on the clay surface, hard court rallies approached clay court lengths in 2012. 21 of 34 Q. What are the implications of trends in points played and intensity for match duration? Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic 22 of 34 Duration = Intensity × Total Points 23 of 34 110 Match Duration Overall 105 100 Match Duration (minutes) 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Tour Year 24 of 34 130 Match Duration By Surface 120 Grass 110 Carpet Hard Clay 100 MatchDuration (minutes) 90 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Tour Year 25 of 34 Match Duration • Match lengths have followed a V-shaped pattern, with the period of shortest match lengths occurring in the mid-1990s, following the pattern of play intensity. • The V-shaped trend was observed for grass, clay and hard court surfaces. • The increase in match duration over time shows that the rise in play intensity has outstepped the general decrease in points played per match. • In 2012, matches on the Tour were an average of nearly 110 minutes ! an all-Tour high. 26 of 34 Q. How have changes to the schedule and duration of play affected overall time on court? Andy Roddick 27 of 34 3.8 Days on Court Overall 3.6 3.4 3.2 Time On Court(Days) 3.0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Tour Year 28 of 34 2.0 Days on Court by Surface 1.5 Grass Carpet Hard 1.0 Clay Time On Court(Days) 0.5 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Tour Year 29 of 34 Days on Court • Since the late 1990s, time on court has increased by nearly half a day on average ! returning to the high of 3.5 days observed when the Tour was established. • Over the past decade, the amount of matchplay spent on hard court surfaces has continued to rise and now represents an average of more than 2 total days of match time. 30 of 34 Q. Is there a winner’s curse in tennis? Rafael Nadal 31 of 34 Top 30 31-60 61-100 3 Days On Court By Rank 2 Grass Carpet Hard Clay Time On CourtTime On (Days) 1 0 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 20121991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 20121991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 Tour Year 32 of 34 Summary • The ATP Tour has been characterized by dramatic changes in surface and playing strategy over its brief history. • Since the early 2000s, Tour play has gotten increasingly demanding as player’s have shifted from serve-and-volley to grinding out wins from the baseline. • Without changes to the Tour schedule or surface speeds, the ATP season is on track to become more onerous on players (especially top players) with each Tour year. 33 of 34 Please send further questions to me at [email protected]. 34 of 34.
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