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Kazakhstan Systematic Country Diagnostic

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Kazakhstan Systematic Country Diagnostic Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Report No. 125611-KZ A new growth model for building a secure middle class Kazakhstan Systematic Country Diagnostic April 2018 Contents Acknowledgments .......................................................................................................................... viii Abbreviations .................................................................................................................................... x 1. Setting the stage: Poverty, shared prosperity, and jobs in a changing economic context .................. 1 1.1 Trends in poverty reduction and shared prosperity ........................................................................... 4 1.2 Jobs, earnings, and productivity ........................................................................................................ 13 1.3 Looking ahead—four mutually reinforcing strategic pillars for building a secure middle class ....... 18 2. Strategic Pillar 1: Economic management for diversification ......................................................... 21 2.1 Understanding the components of economic growth in Kazakhstan ............................................... 21 2.2 Fiscal and monetary policy during commodity cycles ....................................................................... 26 2.3 Governance and public sector effectiveness .................................................................................... 31 3. Strategic Pillar 2: Private sector development ............................................................................... 34 3.1 Diversification and competitiveness: results and opportunities....................................................... 34 3.2 Reducing the state presence in the economy: State-owned enterprises and contestability ........... 43 3.3 Improving the business environment and private sector governance ............................................. 48 3.4 Reforming the financial sector .......................................................................................................... 51 4. Strategic Pillar 3: Integration and connectivity .............................................................................. 55 4.1 Regional and global integration offer expanding market opportunities .......................................... 55 4.2 Internal integration—connecting people and markets ..................................................................... 59 4.3 Governance and social cohesion ....................................................................................................... 65 5. Strategic Pillar 4: Productive and adaptive human and natural capital ........................................... 70 5.1 Education and skills development to achieve desired labor market outcomes ............................... 70 5.2 Health care for better quality life and higher quality workforce ...................................................... 75 5.3 Social protection for reducing poverty and raising productivity ...................................................... 78 5.4 Managing natural resources for wealth conversion and environmental sustainability ................... 82 6. Prioritizing the challenges ............................................................................................................ 87 6.1 Summary of the challenges ............................................................................................................... 87 6.2 Prioritizing challenges and opportunities .......................................................................................... 91 6.3 Final prioritization of challenges and policies ................................................................................... 92 6.4 Implementing the priority interventions........................................................................................... 94 References ...................................................................................................................................... 98 Annex 1: Detailed description and results of prioritization .............................................................. 101 Annex 2: Summary of consultations ............................................................................................... 109 Annex 3: Assessment of key knowledge gaps ................................................................................. 110 Annex 4: Statistical Performance of Kazakhstan ............................................................................. 111 Annex 5: Bibliography of studies and reports informing the Systematic Country Diagnostic ............. 117 i Figures Figure 1: Kazakhstan has made good progress against poverty, 2006–15 .............................................. xi Figure 2: Between 2011 and 2015, private enterprises shed jobs ......................................................... xiii Figure 3: Shares of the middle class population shrank in all economic regions in Kazakhstan from 2014 to 2015 ................................................................................................................................................... xiii Figure 4: Kazakhstan experienced two growth periods over 2000–16 ................................................... xv Figure 5: Kazakhstan’s growth in non-oil exports fell from 16 percent in 2001–08 to almost nil in 2009– 15 ............................................................................................................................................................. xv Figure 6: Without a policy change, Kazakhstan’s net financial assets could be depleted in 5-10 years xvi Figure 7: Kazakhstan has a greater SOE presence in the economy than OECD members and most large non-OECD economies, including Brazil and China, 2013 ...................................................................... xvii Figure 8: Credit to the economy in Kazakhstan has shrunk dramatically in nominal terms, 2005–16 xviii Figure 9: Nonperforming loans surged in Kazakhstan’s after the banking crisis, 2006–16 ................. xviii Figure 10: Annual sales, employment, and productivity growth of Kazakhstan SMEs lag, 2013 .......... xix Figure 11: SME shares of GDP and employment in Kazakhstan lag shares in emerging and high-income countries, 2013 ....................................................................................................................................... xix Figure 12: Kazakhstan’s trade complementarity with regional partners is low, 2015 ............................ xx Figure 13: Trade with regional partners is much more important for non-extractive industries, 2004, 2010, and 2016 ........................................................................................................................................ xx Figure 14: Internal migration is responding to wage differences, but remains small in scale, 2008–13 ................................................................................................................................................................ xxi Figure 15: Despite improvements, Kazakh students trail the OECD average in reading and math on the PISA, 2009 and 2012 .............................................................................................................................. xxii Figure 16: Per pupil expenditure on education in Kazakhstan is well below that in peer countries, 2015 .............................................................................................................................................................. xxiii Figure 17: Social safety net coverage of the bottom 20 percent is low in Kazakhstan, 2013 .............. xxiv Figure 18: Unlike some other resource-rich countries, Kazakhstan has yet to convert its natural capital into human and institutional capital, 2010 .......................................................................................... xxiv Figure 19: Mapping challenges in Kazakhstan to interventions, strategic pillars, and goals ................ xxv Figure 20: Proposed sequencing of the priority policy reforms for Kazakhstan .................................. xxvii Box figure 1: Kazakhstan’s natural resources rents exceed those of other resource-rich countries, 1992– 2015 ........................................................................................................................................................... 3 Box figure 2: Kazakhstan is one of the world’s most sparsely populated countries ................................. 3 Figure 1.1: Lower poverty rate, 2006–15 .................................................................................................. 4 Figure 1.2: Fewer poor people, 2006–15 .................................................................................................. 4 Box figure 1: Kazakh households that own or can access a refrigerator .................................................. 6 Box figure 2: Kazakh households that own or can access a personal automobile .................................... 6 Figure 1.3: Kazakhstan’s middle class has grown, 2006–15 ...................................................................... 5 ii Figure 1.4: But growth of the middle class in Kazakhstan lags rates in peer countries, 2002–14 ............ 5 Figure 1.5: Distribution of consumption growth in Kazakhstan, 2006–15 and 2013–15 .......................... 7 Figure 1.6:
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