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Investment Proposals INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES 2018 OF KAZAKHSTAN Niche projects Mining and smelting industry Mining and smelting industry is the basis for industrialization of the national economy. 30% of the world's chrome ore reserves, 25% of manganese ores, 10% of iron ores are concentrated in Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan reserves of copper, lead and zinc amount to 10% and 13% of the world reserves, respectively. Out of the 118 elements of the periodic table, 99 were revealed in Kazakhstan, 70 elements have explored reserves, and more than 60 elements are involved in production. Mining is one of the most socially important branches of the economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan, on which development of regions, cities and towns, growth of jobs, as well as social, industrial and transport infrastructure are dependent. Development and processing of mineral resources in long term will remain an important source of economic growth. Large mining and smelting enterprises of the republic are mainly focused on production of primary metals. Most of their products are exported, while domestic market receives about 20%. A structure of production is dominated by raw materials and semi-finished products, which are processed abroad and re-imported into Kazakhstan in the form of finished products. It should also be noted that activities of mining and smelting enterprises were included in the list of priority investment directions in the Republic of Kazakhstan. Accordingly, these projects will receive support from the state along the entire production chain. 5 Mining and smelting industry Construction of a mining and processing complex and industrial development of Aidarly copper deposit Project description: Project implementation assumptions: This investment project (“Project”) provides for the High demand. A stable increase in demand for the construction of mining and processing complex at refined copper is expected over the next years. the Aidarly deposit in the East Kazakhstan Oblast. Copper plays a significant role in infrastructure, Product: Cathode copper, copper concentrate. generation and transmission of electricity, transport, Objective of the project: development of the communications, in the production of industrial Kazakhmys Corporation resource base, creation of equipment and electrical appliances. Demand for the an effective integrated business for the extraction refined copper is forecasted to increase annually by and processing of copper ore and the sale of 2% and 1.5% in 2019 and 2020, respectively. cathode copper in the domestic market and abroad. Price stabilization. Refined copper prices currently Manufacturing process: mining – open-pit show a moderate upward trend. According to method. Oxide ores processing (stage1) –processing Bloomberg, a moderate rise in prices for the refined of oxide ores will occur at a heap leaching plant with copper with the subsequent price stabilization is the production of cathode copper. expected in the medium term: 2019 − US$ 6,038, Sulphide ores processing (stages 2 and 3) – 2020 − US$ 5,961, 2021 − US$ 6,011, 2022 − US$ processing of sulphide ores will occur at a 6,054, 2023 − US$ 6,087 per tonne. processing plant with the production of copper Import substitution and local production concentrate. growth. While the dynamics of the trade balance Initiator: Aidarly Project LLP, subsidiary shows a surplus in the category "refined copper and organization Kazakhmys Corporation LLP. crude copper alloys", the opposite situation is Annual production capacity: observed for the category of goods with a greater Processing of 1.3 mln tonnes of ores (stage 1), 20 depth of processing as "plates, sheets and stripes or mln tonnes (stage 2), 50 mln tonnes (stage 3). strips of copper". Key investment indicators Deposit reserves, thousand tonnes On-balance reserves in the pit Index Results contour Index Oxide Sulphide ores Investment, US$ thousands 1,474,770 ores С1 В С1 С2 Project NPV, US$ thousands 104,605 Reserves MIRR, % 8.2% Ore 5,878 317,849 1,205,889 Copper 20.5 1,220/0 4,630 EBITDA return, % 29% Molybdenum, 154,278 tonnes Payback period, years 18.3 Gold, kg 14,141 Discounted payback period, 21.0 years Silver, tonnes 2,170.4 Project location: Ayagoz district, East- Project profitability Kazakhstan Oblast 3 000 000 33% 33% 35% 29% 29% 30% 2 500 000 25% 22% 25% 2 000 000 Nur-Sultan 20% 1 500 000 5676072 Aidarly deposit 15% 1 000 000 2 062 8160622 2 015 0370152 10% 509 712 509 1 833 0208331 US$ thousands US$ 500 000 1755931 5% 0 0% Almaty Year Year Year Year Year Year 16 26 36 37 47 48 Revenue, US$ thousands EBITDA margin, % KAZAKH INVEST: December 2019 12 Investment proposal Mining and smelting industry Construction of a mining and metallurgical complex on Besshoky Square in the Karaganda region Project overview: Project implementation assumptions: This investment project (hereinafter referred to as Large reserves of copper. Kazakhstan takes the the “Project”) provides for the construction of a 8th place in the world in copper reserves with a mining and metallurgical complex at the Besshoky share of 4.7% of world reserves (37 million tons). field. High demand. Copper plays a significant role in Project goals: development of a group of deposits modern infrastructure, generation and transmission on Besshoky Square, creation of an effective of electricity, in the production of industrial integrated business for the extraction and equipment and electrical appliances. According to processing of copper-molybdenum ore. the forecasts of the International Copper Study Group, the annual growth in demand for refined Initiator: Ulmus Fund B.V. copper will be 2% in 2019 and 1.5% in 2020. Production process: open pit mining; ore Price stabilization. According to Bloomberg, the processing at the processing plant and production price of refined copper is expected to increase with of copper-molybdenum concentrate; processing of its subsequent stabilization in the medium term: concentrate at a smelter to produce copper and 2019 - 6038.5 USD, 2023 – 6087 USD per ton. molybdenum. Molybdenum price increase. Despite a significant Products: copper and molybdenum drop in molybdenum prices from 2013 (24,889 USD) Production capacity: to 2015 (11,625 USD), according to the London Metal Exchange (LME) index, the price of 10 mln tons of ore per year molybdenum began to rise steadily to 24.9 thousand USD in 2018 (CAGR for 2015-2018 - 29%). Key investment indicators Project profitability Indicator Results 500 000 26% 27% 30% 23% 24% Amount of investments, US$ 22% 22% 22% 25% 210,000 400 000 thousands 20% Project NPV, US$ thousands 116,747 300 000 15% IRR, % 21.2% 200 000 10% EBITDA margin, % 14-28% 100 000 5% US$ thousands US$ 250 927250 640256 302262 365280 445315 314353 460396 Payback period, years 8.5 0 0% Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Discounted payback period, years 11.7 5 6 7 10 15 20 25 Revenue, US$ thousands EBITDA margin, % Project location: Besshoky square, Field reserves by JORC (2012) Karagandy oblast Ore, mln Copper, ths Field Cu, % tons tons East Besshoky Measured 9.64 74.58 0.77 Nur-Sultan Indicated 19.09 116.93 0.61 Besshoky South Besshoky square Measured 44.36 164.52 0.37 Indicated 147.32 527.03 0.36 Shymkent Almaty Kaindyshoky Measured - - - Indicated 37.87 143.52 0.38 KAZAKH INVEST: December 2019 14 Investment proposal Mining and smelting industry Development of Nurbay, Besshocky and Sarybulak copper ore deposits Project Description: Market conditions: Construction of industrial complex for copper ore Availability of raw materials and subsoil use extraction at the Nurbay, Basskocky and Sarybulak rights. The forecasted reserves of the complex of deposits in East Kazakhstan oblast and copper Nurbay-Basskocky-Sarybulak deposits amount to cathode production in the amount of 12,500 tonnes over 280 thous. tonnes of copper. per year High demand. It is expected that the steady growth in demand for refined copper will continue in Product: Copper cathode subsequent years, since copper is the most Capacity: Processing of 1 million tons of copper important resource and factor of production in a oxide ore per year. Further expansion is possible for modern technological society. Annual growth in the processing of sulphide ores. demand for refined copper is projected at 2% in 2019 and 1.5% in 2020. Production volumes: Expected production of Price stabilization. According to analysts at 12,500 tons of cathode copper per year. Bloomberg, a moderate increase in refined copper Initiator: Ertis-Med’ LLP. prices is expected in the medium term, with Location: Ayagoz district, East-Kazakhstan Oblast. subsequent stabilization of the price level: 2019 - $6,038.5; 2021 - $6,011; 2023 - $6,087 per tonne. Potential markets: non-ferrous metal processing Export potential. The shortage of this product plants in CIS, China and Europe. indicates the potential for import substitution. Also RK has an opportunity to increase exports to the PRC and other countries. Key investment indicators of the Project Project profitability Indicator Results 100,000 51.0% 90,000 50.8% 50.8% Project implementation period, years 9 50.5% 80,000 50.8% 50.6% incl. investment stage, years 2 70,000 50.9% operational stage, years 7 60,000 50.2% 50.4% 50.4% Investment amount, US$ thousands 43,845 50,000 50.2% 50.0% 40,000 50.0% 54,884 US$ thous. Project NPV, US$ thousands 30,000 19,125 49.8% IRR, % 40.1% 20,000 10,000 49.6% 57,375 83,546 94,921 87,635 91,507 EBITDA margin, % 51% 79,875 0 49.4% Payback period, years 4.5 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Discounted payback period, years 5.2 Revenue, US$ thous. EBITDA margin, % Project location: Deposit reserves Ayagoz district, East-Kazakhstan Oblast Indicators Unit meas. Reserves (Presumably according to Nurbay intelligence data from 1962) Copper (С2) ‘000 tonnes 180.00 Incl.
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