Preliminary Draft Agenda

Workshop Agenda Improving Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Precipitation Forecasting

Sponsored by Western States Water Council and California Department of Water Resources

May 17-19, 2017 Doubletree San Diego Downtown 1646 Front Street, San Diego, CA

Wednesday, May 17

11:00 Registration

1:00 Welcome and Opening Remarks – Tony Willardson, Western States Water Council (WSWC)

Workshop Background & Desired Outcomes – Jeanine Jones, California Department of Water Resources (CDWR)

1:30 Water Years 2016 & 2017: Predicted as Compared to Observed – Mike Anderson, CDWR

2:15 National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Perspective, Challenges and Opportunities with WY 2016 & 2017 Outlooks – Dave DeWitt, NWS CPC

2:45 Break

3:00 Why Are Improved Forecasts Needed? Reservoir Operations and Rule Curve Applications

Jay Jasperse, Sonoma County Water Agency (Lake Mendocino) Charlie Ester, Salt River Project (Roosevelt Dam) Greg Woodside, Orange County Water District (Prado Dam)

5:00 Adjourn

Thursday, May 18

8:00 Continental Breakfast

8:30 Weather Research & Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017 (P.L. 115-25) – Group Discussion

9:00 NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) Example – Fred Toepfer, NWS Office of Science & Technology Integration (by phone)

9:30 Impacts of S2S Forecast Improvements on NOAA National Water Model Capabilities – Tom Graziano, NWS Office of Water Prediction (by phone)

10:00 Break

10:15 Updates on Research Related to Predictability

Southwest Monsoon Forecasts – Chris Castro, University of Arizona West-WRF Model Forecasts & Atmospheric River (AR) Outlooks – Marty Ralph, UC San Diego Sub-Seasonal Prediction of ARs – Duane Waliser, NASA Jet Propulsion Lab 11:45 Lunch (on your own)

1:15 Research Updates – Continued

Seasonal Prediction of ARs and El Nino – Hyemi Kim, Stony Brook University S2S Forecasting: Life Beyond ENSO – Rob Gillies, Utah State University

2:15 Opportunities for Learning

USBR’s Sub-Seasonal Forecasting Competition – Levi Brekke, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Research & Development

2011 Upper Missouri River Basin Area Flooding

Weather Retrospective – Jon Rutz, NWS Western Region and Meredith Fish, UC San Diego Impacts – Damon Grabow, North Dakota State Water Commission

3:45 Break

4:00 Improving the Transition of Research to Operations

Hydrometeorology Testbed California Example – Mike Anderson, CDWR; Robert (Robin) Webb, NOAA ESRL; and Alex Tardy, NWS SDWFO

5:00 Adjourn

Friday, May 19th

8:00 Continental Breakfast

8:30 Potential Applications/Users for Improved S2S Forecasts

Truckee River Operating Agreement – Shane Coors, Precision Water Resource Engineering U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Reservoirs in Kansas – Nathan Westrup, Kansas Water Office Technological Advances: The Power of Big Data – Scott Sellars, UC San Diego Examples from California’s Recent Drought – Jeanine Jones, CDWR

10:30 Break

10:45 Raising Awareness of Needs for Improved S2S Forecasting – Group Discussion

Outreach Activities – Jeanine Jones, CDWR

11:30 Wrap-up Discussion & Action Items

12:00 Adjourn