Preliminary Draft Agenda

Preliminary Draft Agenda

<p> Workshop Agenda Improving Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Precipitation Forecasting </p><p>Sponsored by Western States Water Council and California Department of Water Resources</p><p>May 17-19, 2017 Doubletree San Diego Downtown 1646 Front Street, San Diego, CA</p><p>Wednesday, May 17 </p><p>11:00 Registration</p><p>1:00 Welcome and Opening Remarks – Tony Willardson, Western States Water Council (WSWC)</p><p>Workshop Background & Desired Outcomes – Jeanine Jones, California Department of Water Resources (CDWR) </p><p>1:30 Water Years 2016 & 2017: Predicted as Compared to Observed – Mike Anderson, CDWR</p><p>2:15 National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Perspective, Challenges and Opportunities with WY 2016 & 2017 Outlooks – Dave DeWitt, NWS CPC </p><p>2:45 Break</p><p>3:00 Why Are Improved Forecasts Needed? Reservoir Operations and Rule Curve Applications</p><p>Jay Jasperse, Sonoma County Water Agency (Lake Mendocino) Charlie Ester, Salt River Project (Roosevelt Dam) Greg Woodside, Orange County Water District (Prado Dam)</p><p>5:00 Adjourn</p><p>Thursday, May 18</p><p>8:00 Continental Breakfast</p><p>8:30 Weather Research & Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017 (P.L. 115-25) – Group Discussion </p><p>9:00 NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) Example – Fred Toepfer, NWS Office of Science & Technology Integration (by phone)</p><p>9:30 Impacts of S2S Forecast Improvements on NOAA National Water Model Capabilities – Tom Graziano, NWS Office of Water Prediction (by phone)</p><p>10:00 Break</p><p>10:15 Updates on Research Related to Predictability</p><p>Southwest Monsoon Forecasts – Chris Castro, University of Arizona West-WRF Model Forecasts & Atmospheric River (AR) Outlooks – Marty Ralph, UC San Diego Sub-Seasonal Prediction of ARs – Duane Waliser, NASA Jet Propulsion Lab 11:45 Lunch (on your own)</p><p>1:15 Research Updates – Continued</p><p>Seasonal Prediction of ARs and El Nino – Hyemi Kim, Stony Brook University S2S Forecasting: Life Beyond ENSO – Rob Gillies, Utah State University</p><p>2:15 Opportunities for Learning </p><p>USBR’s Sub-Seasonal Forecasting Competition – Levi Brekke, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Research & Development </p><p>2011 Upper Missouri River Basin Area Flooding</p><p>Weather Retrospective – Jon Rutz, NWS Western Region and Meredith Fish, UC San Diego Impacts – Damon Grabow, North Dakota State Water Commission</p><p>3:45 Break</p><p>4:00 Improving the Transition of Research to Operations </p><p>Hydrometeorology Testbed California Example – Mike Anderson, CDWR; Robert (Robin) Webb, NOAA ESRL; and Alex Tardy, NWS SDWFO </p><p>5:00 Adjourn</p><p>Friday, May 19th</p><p>8:00 Continental Breakfast</p><p>8:30 Potential Applications/Users for Improved S2S Forecasts</p><p>Truckee River Operating Agreement – Shane Coors, Precision Water Resource Engineering U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Reservoirs in Kansas – Nathan Westrup, Kansas Water Office Technological Advances: The Power of Big Data – Scott Sellars, UC San Diego Examples from California’s Recent Drought – Jeanine Jones, CDWR </p><p>10:30 Break</p><p>10:45 Raising Awareness of Needs for Improved S2S Forecasting – Group Discussion </p><p>Outreach Activities – Jeanine Jones, CDWR</p><p>11:30 Wrap-up Discussion & Action Items </p><p>12:00 Adjourn</p>

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