1. Write a Description of What You Would Like to Do on Your Project (What Is the Question

Eugen Taso Assignment #7

1. Write a description of what you would like to do on your project (what is the question or questions you would like to answer, the issue you are tackling, etc.)

For my final project, (with a lot of help from Barbara) I was able to find an issue that I am really interested in exploring, that ties into a topic I am very excited about – nuclear power. While I have not yet narrowed down the scope (in terms of location, breath of analysis), I would like to look at a subset of the 104 nuclear power plants in the United States and create scenarios for damage control and prediction in the event of a nuclear emergency. Currently, I think the most interesting option is exploring the New England area (including New Jersey and New York), although it may be more appropriate to look at the whole eastern seaboard.

The project would entail siting the nuclear power plants on the region of my choice, then assessing the impact of a nuclear disaster at the source, within 5-mile radius, 25-mile radius, 50- mile radius, 75-mile radius and finally 100-mile radius (if needed). I would like to see how this would impact population (% of >65 year-olds affected, % of <25 affected), how this would impact transmission lines, infrastructure (roads, railways), how it would impact schools, open spaces (parks, lakes, etc). Keeping in mind that this is by no means a comprehensive study of disaster management, I believe this will be a very interesting exercise to get a better idea what the risks are on the East Coast, and hopefully use it to put to rest some of the objections of safety and impact of nuclear power.

In addition, if time permits, I would like to work with the data that I collect and, using the Spatial Analyst tool, find new sites in the area for potential new nuclear power plants, based on the census, transportation and infrastructure data, that would minimize impact in case of an accident.

Below is a map that shows the current location of nuclear power reactors in the US. As is apparent, most of them are in the East Cost/Midwest regions, and as those areas are also the densely populated states, I believe an analysis of the East would be valuable and appropriate. I have also included a list of the 104 reactors, as well as a list (with links) of all the states and the nuclear power plants associated with them (if any). The information came from the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the regulatory body for nuclear power in the United States (www.nrc.gov) Source; US Nuclear Regulatory Commission

2 Alphabetical List of Operating Nuclear Power Reactors by Name

A - C D - L M - Q R - W Arkansas Nuclear 1 D.C. Cook 1 McGuire 1 River Bend 1 Arkansas Nuclear 2 D.C. Cook 2 McGuire 2 Robinson 2 Beaver Valley 1 Davis-Besse Millstone 2 Saint Lucie 1 Beaver Valley 2 Diablo Canyon 1 Millstone 3 Saint Lucie 2 Braidwood 1 Diablo Canyon 2 Monticello Salem 1 Braidwood 2 Dresden 2 Nine Mile Point 1 Salem 2 Browns Ferry 1 Dresden 3 Nine Mile Point 2 San Onofre 2 Browns Ferry 2 Duane Arnold North Anna 1 San Onofre 3 Browns Ferry 3 Farley 1 North Anna 2 Seabrook 1 Brunswick 1 Farley 2 Oconee 1 Sequoyah 1 Brunswick 2 Fermi 2 Oconee 2 Sequoyah 2 Byron 1 FitzPatrick Oconee 3 South Texas 1 Byron 2 Fort Calhoun Oyster Creek South Texas 2 Callaway Ginna Palisades Summer Calvert Cliffs 1 Grand Gulf 1 Palo Verde 1 Surry 1 Calvert Cliffs 2 Harris 1 Palo Verde 2 Surry 2 Catawba 1 Hatch 1 Palo Verde 3 Susquehanna 1 Catawba 2 Hatch 2 Peach Bottom 2 Susquehanna 2 Clinton Hope Creek 1 Peach Bottom 3 Three Mile Island 1 Columbia Generating Indian Point 2 Perry 1 Turkey Point 3 Station Indian Point 3 Pilgrim 1 Turkey Point 4 Comanche Peak 1 Kewaunee Point Beach 1 Vermont Yankee Comanche Peak 2 La Salle 1 Point Beach 2 Vogtle 1 Cooper La Salle 2 Prairie Island 1 Vogtle 2 Crystal River 3 Limerick 1 Prairie Island 2 Waterford 3 Limerick 2 Quad Cities 1 Watts Bar 1 Quad Cities 2 Wolf Creek 1 Source; US Nuclear Regulatory Commission

3 List of States and Territories by NRC Region

List of States and Territories by NRC Region Region I Region II Region III Region IV Jurisdiction | Location Jurisdiction | Location Jurisdiction | Location Jurisdiction | Location Connecticut (CT) Alabama (AL) Illinois (IL) Alaska (AK) Delaware (DE) Florida (FL) Indiana (IN) Arizona (AZ) Maine (ME) Georgia (GA) Iowa (IA) Arkansas (AR) Maryland (MD) Kentucky (KY) Michigan (MI) California (CA) Massachusetts (MA) Mississippi (MS) Minnesota (MN) Colorado (CO) New Hampshire (NH) North Carolina (NC) Ohio (OH) Hawaii (HI) New Jersey (NJ) Puerto Rico (PR) Wisconsin (WI) Idaho (ID) New York (NY) South Carolina (SC) Kansas (KS) Pennsylvania (PA) Tennessee (TN) Louisiana (LA) Rhode Island (RI) Virginia (VA) Missouri (MO) Vermont (VT) Virgin Islands (VI) Montana (MT) Washington, DC West Virginia (WV) Nebraska (NE) Nevada (NV) New Mexico (NM) North Dakota (ND) Oklahoma (OK) Oregon (OR) South Dakota (SD) Texas (TX) Utah (UT) Washington (WA) Wyoming (WY) Source; US Nuclear Regulatory Commission

4 2. Provide at least four briefly annotated examples of similar analyses (some or all of these should come from peer-reviewed journals if possible) - briefly annotated means that you have a paragraph about each example - if you cannot find examples of exactly what you are doing, find examples at least in the same general field or one using similar data sets

In Assignment 1, I provided two examples of using GIS for disaster management. One from the ESRI website, the Homeland security section, and one from IEEE Xplore. The ESRI example comes from PA and is more extensive due to its combination of several software tools (including GIS), and may be beyond the scope of this project. The Michigan study is in fact very close to what I aim to do for the East Coast, providing radiation assessment for a nuclear disaster. The two papers and links to the original web locations are below.

1. Barnhart, James F. Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, Bureau of Radiation Protection (PA DEP PRB) – 2008 paper http://gis.esri.com/library/userconf/hss05/docs/pap1007.pdf

C:\Documents and Settings\ftaso01\Desktop\pap1007.pdf

2. Steinman Rebecca L. Advent Engineering Services, Ann Arbor, MI – 2002 paper http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?arnumber=01239696

C:\Documents and Settings\ftaso01\Desktop\getPDF.pdf

I am also including Assignment #1 in here for reference about the two papers.

C:\Documents and Settings\Tischlaptoplend\Desktop\Assignment 1.doc

Additional research yielded more results on work similar to what I am proposing:

3. Selvavinayagam K. Disaster management practices using ArcGIS, ArcIMS, ArcSDE and Oracle, May 5, 2008 http://ezinearticles.com/?Disaster-Management-Practices-Using-ArcGIS,-ArcIMS,- ArcSDE-and-SQL&id=1154399&opt=print

C:\Documents and Settings\ftaso01\Desktop\Disaster Management Practic...pdf This article describes how certain tools in GIS can be used for disaster preparedness and emergency response in case of a disaster (nuclear one among others). The NuclearPlannerTM, a web GIS based application tool, provides a web-based evacuation preparedness for citizens living close to nuclear power plant, within the 10 mile radius. It delivers personalized response information to identify appropriate evacuation routes and response measures. Citizens living in risk area can identify their emergency reception centers, driving directions, and emergency exits.

5 The system can also be integrated with weather, demographic data and real-time highway database and could help planners evacuate people during the crucial time of natural disasters. Its major components includes end to end web-based solution, feature query, proximity analysis, emergency response plan module, evacuation routing module for public emergency, property query module, theme add in and on/off module, buffer analysis etc.

4. Noggler, B. and M. Innerkofler, “GIS for disaster mitigation and civil defence in TIROL/Austria”, 2002 http://www.gisdevelopment.net/aars/acrs/2002/hdm/hdm001pf.htm

C:\Documents and Settings\ftaso01\Desktop\hdm001pf.pdf Although not directly related to nuclear disaster, this is an example from Austria of emergency management through GIS. This application can provide an operating unit with detailed (large scale) geographic information. E.g. hazardous zone maps (see 2) of the forestry services (for torrents, avalanches, mudslides and rock falls), and the flood-risk maps of the river authority are available in governmental GIS and are connected with IKI. The main important issue is, that IKI will just use this information, the GIS data itself will contain at the responsible organization or governmental departments. This is very important, because only they will manage the database (e.g. adding new, updating existing data)

5. Leitinger, Sven H. “Comparison of GIS Based Public Safety Systems for Emergency Management”, 2004 http://www.salzburgresearch.at/research/gfx/udms2004_final_paper_leitinger.pdf

C:\Documents and Settings\Tischlaptoplend\Desktop\udms2004_final_paper_leitinger.pdf This paper deals generally with emergency response and disaster management, and the interlink between GIS and several response and prevention software systems (CKS-112 developed by CKS Systeme, ELDIS 2 developed by Eurofunk Kappacher, I/CAD developed by Intergraph Public Safety, ELS/GEOFIS 3.0 developed by Novotec Engineering and secure.Control developed by Wesser Informatik.

The main GIS functionality of PSS is a function that uses geocoded addresses. This function is required in order to enable localization of the emergency site. The addresses are usually organized in a dataset, which include the necessary geographic information, e.g. coordinates. In addition to this function, the emergency location can be entered via the street name or ordinary geographical coordinates.

The second important GIS function is network analysis. In the network analysis the shortest or the fastest way between the position of the emergency forces and the emergency site is calculated. This function uses miscellaneous parameters, such as one-way-streets and turn restrictions. Applications designed for ambulances use the function of the “travelling salesman problem” for calculating the cheapest way between the location of the patients and the health care centers (hospitals, foster homes, medical specialists). The acquired routes are then shown on

6 the cartographic visualization tool and sent as GPS-coordinates or as a textual list of directions to the emergency vehicles.

The cartographic visualization of emergency sites is another important function of PSS. It is usually presented on a digital map which can be completed with tactical symbols, simple drawings and labels. With the help of GPS transmitters the current position of the vehicles is acquired and visualized with symbols on the map. In additional layers, buildings with high exposure, like hospitals, schools, hotels, etc. can be displayed on the map or retrieved from special building databases. Other GIS functions included in the graphic display of PSS are the measurement of routes and surfaces and the query of specific emergency data.

3. Describe the methods you think you will use (because we haven't covered analysis in detail yet, this may be very preliminary)

For this project, there are several, tools and methods I will use, and I am certain I should consider many others, so feedback in this area is certainly very useful.

I would start with Geocoding the nuclear power plants into GIS to pinpoint them as accurately as possible. I would then load my layers and use spatial analyst to figure out the properties for the ground, schools, etc. within the impact bands (5 miles, 10 miles etc.)

I would also use the “Select by Attribute” and “Select by Location” tools to narrow down the search fields and allow me to design the radius of impact for each power plant.

I will attempt to use spatial overlays to get different layers for visual accuracy to be able to explain the impact of a disaster across several factors.

I would also use census mapping and work with the different tools available to isolate blocks and tracks and allow for population composition, density, etc.

4. List the data layers you will need for this project (if you know where you will get them from, list the source, otherwise indicate that you will need help locating this data set) and include the minimum accuracy you will accept (e.g., for the location of a stream, does it need to be within 500 feet of its actual location or within 10 feet? Your answer will depend on your analysis purpose and the scale of your project)

Since I believe this project requires a high degree of accuracy, I will need the location of the power plants, the roads, the transmission lines and other infrastructure features, as well as schools, parks rivers, lakes, etc. within 0.1 miles (500 feet) of their actual location. Even though I am doing an analysis based on mile disaster management bands and exact location may be hard to see on an eastern seaboard map, I believe locating the features on the map as accurately as possible is key to effective disaster management.

The layers I believe are necessary are as follows:

- Map of Eastern Seaboard (M:\Country\USA\ESRIDataMaps906)

7 - Schools, parks, lakes, rivers (ESRI or other sources) - Census 2000 data, from the Census Bureau: http://www.census.gov/geo/www/tiger/index.html - TIGER Census Data from ESRI: http://www.esri.com/data/download/census2000_tigerline/index.html - Infrastructure data (not sure, but I assume same one we used in lab, for the eastern seaboard) - Transmission lines (not sure where to get this one) - Vector and raster data for the region (elevation, etc) data

Note: Feedback here would also be useful. I think I have most of what I need, but I am sure I am missing something important here.