CGE Training Materials For Vulnerability And Adaptation Assessment

CGE TRAINING MATERIALS FOR VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT

Chapter 2: Planning, including selecting vulnerability and adaptation frameworks CONTENTS

CONTENTS...... I

2.1 INTRODUCTION...... 1

2.2 PLANNING THE VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT...... 1

2.2.1 Review previous assessments...... 1 2.2.2 Screening assessment (optional)...... 2 2.2.3 Assess capacity opportunities and constraints...... 3 2.2.4 Consider approaches to optimizing implementation...... 3 2.2.5 Develop a V&A assessment project implementation plan...... 3

2.3 SELECTING VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION (V&A) FRAMEWORKS....4

2.3.1 Types of Framework...... 4 2.3.2 Adaptation Frameworks...... 12 2.3.3 Local and Community Frameworks...... 19

2.4 PRACTICAL CONSIDERATION IN FRAMEWORK SELECTION...... 22

2.5 REFERENCES...... 23

APPENDIX 1: DRAFT GUIDELINES FOR THE PREPARATION OF NATIONAL ADAPTATION PLANS BY LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRY PARTIES...... 24

i Chapter 2: Vulnerability and Adaptation Frameworks

2.1 INTRODUCTION

This chapter is organised in two parts and outlines the key steps required for the successful planning, and subsequent delivery of, the vulnerability and adaptation (V&A) component of a national communication. The first part describes various project planning and project management considerations that are both specific to V&A and also general considerations in designing and implementing effective projects. The second half of the chapter outlines the major V&A frameworks available to provide a structure for examining the potential impacts of climate change and adaptation within the national communication.

While it is not necessary to select a particular framework before assessing V&A, it may be desirable, as it provides consistency and transparency, particularly when working across multiple sectors. It can also lead Parties to develop a tailored framework that draws on its conceptual underpinnings or to draw on elements from different frameworks tailored to a particular Party’s needs. It is prudent to be aware of the frameworks so as to understand what outcomes the selected framework will deliver (and not deliver) and how it compares with approaches taken in other V&A assessments.

2.2 PLANNING THE VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT

Undertaking V&A assessments is one critical component of the national communication process. The following section provides specific guidance for planning successful V&A activities and should be considered within the overall planning process for national communications.1

Key steps in planning the V&A component of a national communication are:

1. Review previous assessments; 2. Screening assessment (optional); 3. Assess capacity opportunities and constraints (budget, technical skills, data); 4. Consider approaches to optimizing implementation; 5. Develop a V&A assessment project implementation plan.

2.2.1 REVIEW PREVIOUS ASSESSMENTS

A number of non-Annex I Parties have already undertaken at least one national communication, while some have already submitted their second national communication. Consequently, the majority of non-Annex I Parties have some experience in the development of V&A assessments. In addition, many least developed countries (LDCs) have also undertaken national adaptation programmes of action (NAPAs). In the NAPA

1 The resource kit “Planning the National Communication Project”, is available at: < http://www.uncclearn.org/ sites/www.uncclearn.org/files/inventory/UNDP24.pdf >.

Chapter 2: Vulnerability and Adaptation Frameworks process, LDCs performed rapid participatory vulnerability assessments and rigorous exercises of identifying and prioritizing potential adaptation options. A number of countries have officially submitted their NAPAs to the UNFCCC,2 using a range of stakeholder engagement processes during their preparation.3 Many non-Annex I Parties have also undertaken additional V&A assessments in parallel to the national communication process on individual priority areas, communities or sectors.

Under the Cancun Adaptation Framework (CAF), COP 17 adopted the national adaptation plans (NAPs) process. This process allows LDCs and other developing country Parties to reduce their vulnerability to the impacts of climate change, and facilitates the integration of climate change adaptation into new and existing policies, programmes and activities. This process was designed to build upon LDC Parties’ experience in preparing and implementing NAPAs. The key points from the COP 17 decision include the following:

 Guidelines for NAPs for LDCs;

 Modalities for NAPs for LDCs;

 Financial arrangements for the formulation and implementation of NAPs;

 NAPs and non-LDC developing countries;

 Reporting, monitoring and evaluation.

Further detail on the NAP process can be found on the UNFCCC website. 4 Importantly, other developing country Parties are also invited to employ the modalities formulated to support national adaptation planning activities.

Finally, a range of non-government organizations (NGOs), including academic institutions and private sector organizations, have also undertaken V&A assessments. Many can be accessed online through clearing house mechanisms, including the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Adaptation Learning Mechanism.5 Therefore, non- Annex I Parties have the ability to carefully assess the strengths and weaknesses of previous V&A assessments undertaken in their country.

2.2.2 SCREENING ASSESSMENT (OPTIONAL)

An optional step at the planning stage is to undertake a high-level, strategic assessment of priority sectors, communities or issues for subsequent detailed vulnerability assessment. Such a screening assessment can also be valuable in choosing an overall V&A framework or frameworks. This step is optional, given that a thorough review of previous national communications and other V&A assessments can often yield similar results. Using this optional step can also be a valuable planning tool for bringing the V&A team together early to consider the different potential vulnerabilities across sectors (see chapters 5–8 in this training resource). The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and

2 A list of submitted NAPAs is available at . 3 For further information about the NAPA process refer to: or to the UNFCCC “Guidelines for the preparation of national adaptation programmes of action” (28/CP.7). Available at . 4 . 5 Adaptation Learning Mechanism. 2011. Available at

Chapter 2: Vulnerability and Adaptation Frameworks

Development (OECD) has produced an excellent review of screening tools used in the development sector entitled Harmonising Climate Risk Management Adaptation Screening and Assessment Tools for Development Co-operation,6 which provides guidance in understanding screening assessments.

2.2.3 ASSESS CAPACITY OPPORTUNITIES AND CONSTRAINTS

Non-Annex I Parties have markedly different resourcing capacities to undertake V&A assessments related to budgetary constraints, the ability to access technical skills in- country and to access locally relevant data. These capacity differences should also be assessed within a regional context to review the ability to work collaboratively both with neighbouring counties and with regional technical organizations and development partners. For example, undertaking a review from a regional perspective on developing climate change scenarios (see chapter 3) has been of significant benefit to a number of Parties. Some Parties have found it valuable to work within bilateral relationships with donors and/or with multilateral organizations to access specific technical expertise on a sectoral basis (see chapters 5–8).

2.2.4 CONSIDER APPROACHES TO OPTIMIZING IMPLEMENTATION

‘ Starting with the end in mind’ is an approach often used by professional project managers. Thinking about the V&A component of a national communication all the way through, from assessment activities to selecting adaption options, is a useful approach. Thinking carefully about integration and mainstreaming (chapter 9), and communication (chapter 10), can often provide support in V&A planning in order to maximize the implementation potential of the outcomes of the national communication. Engaging with key stakeholders to discuss adaptation needs and priorities can be a useful way to help shape specific sectors or prioritize geographic areas for assessment.

2.2.5 DEVELOP A V&A ASSESSMENT PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION PLAN

A clear, concise project implementation plan, in-line with national requirements and those of the executing agency, should be developed as a component of the overall national communication implementation plan. The plan should, among other elements, contain a rationale for the selection of V&A frameworks, as outlined in section 2.3.

As part of the project implementation plan, applying appropriate data management methodologies is crucial in planning for any project. Simple processes such as deciding on the choice software , if any, or how information gathered throughout the process of completing the V&A will be stored, should be addressed. For example, shared servers or networks are important for ensuring data are accessible to all members of the project team. Appropriate and regular backups of all electronic data should also be undertaken to ensure data are secure for long-term access. Data in this context has a broad meaning, from digital mapping data (such as used in geographic information systems (GISs)) to documents and reports compiled during the national communications process.

6 Hammill, A., and Tanner, T. 2011. Harmonising Climate Risk Management: Adaptation Screening and Assessment Tools for Development Co-operation Available at: .

The principles of good data management also extend to the archiving and storage of both hard copy and electronic documents. Such processes ensure that experiences, lessons learned and data can be shared and built upon. Data collected and created as part of the national communication process can often be used much more broadly.7

The above steps are important inputs to help shape the choice of V&A frameworks, as described in section 2.3.

2.3 SELECTING VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION (V&A) FRAMEWORKS

There are a number of frameworks available for V&A assessments and this section describes some established frameworks. It provides a structured approach to questions that should be considered when selecting a framework for a particular V&A context. This includes factors such as data availability, resource requirements and stakeholder needs (as outlined in section 2 above).

2.3.1 TYPES OF FRAMEWORK

The UNFCCC Resource Guide8 states that over the past 18 years many V&A frameworks have been developed, tailored to the particular needs of a V&A assessment, as shown in Table 2- . The UNFCCC Compendium9 summarizes these frameworks and also provides information on additional frameworks that may be useful in specific situations.

Current good practice suggests that it is important to critically assess the strengths and weaknesses of each framework within the particular circumstances (including the outcomes of V&A assessment planning activities outlined in the previous section). Therefore, this chapter does not state a preference for any framework, but urges parties to consider all factors in the selection process.

7 For a simple overview of data management principles, refer to: Australian Local Government Association. 2007. “Spatial Toolkit Module 3”, available at < http://alga.asn.au/site/misc/alga/downloads/info-technology/ 03_Spatial_Toolkit_Module3.pdf>. 8 UNFCCC. 2008. “UNFCCC Resource Guide for Preparing the National Communications of Non-Annex I Parties”. Available at . 9 UNFCCC. 2008. “Compendium on Methods and Tools to Evaluate Impacts of, Vulnerability and Adaptation to, Climate Change”. Available at < www.unfccc.int/adaptation/nairobi_workprogramme/compendium_on_ methods_tools/items/2674.php >.

Table 2-: Established vulnerability and adaptation frameworks (adapted from UNFCCC, 2008 and Lu, 2008)

Framework Year Description Approach released

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate 1994 Contains examples of first Top-down Change Technical Guidelines for generation approaches to Assessing Climate Change Impacts and the assessment of Adaptations vulnerability and < www. ipcc .ch/pdf/special-reports/ ipcc - adaptation. The technical - guidelines -1994n.pdf> guidelines have an analytical emphasis and focus on identification and quantification of impacts

United Nations Environment 1998 Provides a basic overview Top-down Programme Handbook on Methods for to the field of climate and Climate Change Impact Assessment impacts and adaptation bottom-up and Adaptation Strategies assessment by sector, of methods available

U.S. Country Studies Program (USCSP) 1996 Summary reports of Top-down various V&A studies undertaken by participating countries

United Nations Development 2004 Facilitating climate risk Top-down Programme Adaptation Policy assessment and and Frameworks for Climate Change (APF) management. Second- bottom-up places the assessment of vulnerability at the centre of the process

Annotated guidelines for the preparation 2001 Provides some Bottom-up of national adaptation programmes of conceptual and action (NAPAs) procedural oversight for a document that identifies urgent and immediate national priorities for adaptation

United Kingdom Climate Impacts 2003 Provides guidance to Top-down Programme (UKCIP) Climate those engaged in and

Framework Year Description Approach released

Adaptation: Risk, Uncertainty and decision-making and bottom-up Decision Making policy processes. It lays integrating climate adaptation decisions and, more generally, climate- influenced decisions into the broader context of institutional decision- making

Australian Greenhouse Office Climate 2006 Facilitating climate risk Top-down Change Impacts and Risk assessment and and Management: A Guide for Business and management, aimed at bottom-up Government < local and governmental http://www.climatechange.gov.au/ bodies, and businesses community/~/media/publications/local- govt/risk-management.ashx >

USAID Adapting to Climate Variability 2007 Provides guidance on Bottom-up and Change; A Guidance Manual for integrating adaptation into Development Planning development projects. screening and climate proof project design, aimed at development agencies

Toolkit for Designing Climate Change 2010 Adaptation decision Top-down Adaptation Initiatives (UNDP) focus. and adaptive solution approach

Table 2-1 also shows how V&A frameworks have evolved from the 1990s onwards. Often referred to as ‘first generation’, the frameworks developed in the mid-1990s focused more on understanding how significant the impacts of climate change will be in order to direct mitigation efforts. These early frameworks were based on climate scenarios generated through general circulation models (GCMs) (see chapter 4), applied to models of ecological or biophysical environments in particular sectors, including those outlined in chapters 5–8.

Over time, growing concern around the need for adaptation led to changes in thinking about V&A. This was reflected in the development of ‘second generation’ frameworks that focus on more holistic impact assessments within adaptation decision-making contexts. However, it is important to note that approaches to V&A are evolving rapidly, with more recent work focused on blending merits of both first- and second-generation approaches. For example, greater emphasis is being placed on socio-economic scenarios, stakeholder participation and strengthening adaptive capacity. The UNDP Toolkit for Designing Climate Change Adaptation Initiatives (2010), takes a decision-centred approach that essentially ‘works backwards’ from potential adaptive decisions, providing guidance on structuring impact assessments that support these decisions. The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) Adapting to Climate Variability and Change; A Guidance Manual for Development Planning is also a useful resource in this regard.

There has also been an emergence of risk-based approaches to V&A, most notably emanating from the United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP), the Australian Government and also the Asian Development Bank (ADB) (see Table 2-). Further information on risk-based frameworks is provided in section 3.2.

It is useful to consider V&A frameworks in two general categories: impacts and adaptation. Impacts frameworks are sometimes referred to as ‘first generation’ or ‘top-down’ frameworks. They were mainly designed to help understand the potential long-term impacts of climate change. The adaptation frameworks, sometimes referred to as ‘second generation’ or ‘bottom-up’ frameworks, have been designed to focus on adaptation and involve stakeholders. The features of these two approaches are shown in Figure 2- . It is important to stress that the notion of the ‘bottom-up’ nature of the NAPA/NAP approach needs to be used with caution. Though bottom-up approaches are placed as a major approach, the NAPA/NAP approach uses a blend of top-down and bottom-up approaches: the top-down approach is used to stimulate and imitate the bottom-up approach, while balancing potential unintended top-down influences on the decisions.

Figure 2-: Features of top-down and bottom-up approaches to assessing vulnerability and adaptation (UNFCCC, 2008)10

It is increasingly recognized that the choice of ‘top-down’ versus ‘bottom-up’ approaches is driven by a sense of where a V&A assessment sits in geographic hierarchy, from individual communities (village, town or environment type) through local (municipality) and regional (state, provinces and districts), to national and then international scales.

National level V&A assessments may be carried out using particular impact-driven frameworks, which may combine with local scale participatory ‘bottom-up’ approaches. Local level V&A may be undertaken using NAPA/NAP-style stakeholder driven consensus-building processes (see Table 2-1), linked with additional sector-specific localized detailed V&A assessment.

Consequently, ‘top-down/bottom-up’ thinking enables practitioners to ‘mix and match’ V&A frameworks that apply to different geographic scales (global through to local community) while also blending adaptation and impact-focused approaches (see Table 2 - 1).

10 Refer to Module 3 in: UNFCCC. 2008. “UNFCCC Resource Guide for Preparing the National Communications of Non-Annex I Parties”. Available at: .

Impacts Frameworks

Focus on assessing long-term risks from climate change and look many decades into the future, most often in the range 2050–2100. Figure 2-2 outlines the main elements of an impacts framework. First, baseline socio-economic and environment scenarios (see chapter 3), as well as climate change scenarios (see chapter 4), are developed by the assessment team. An assumption about related variables within these scenarios is that they should be internally consistent. For example, a higher population may be associated with a higher total gross national product (GNP), but not necessarily with a higher personal income (GNP/capita). Secondly, biophysical impacts are assessed, generally through consideration of historic system sensitivity to climate variables. Impacts are integrated across related sectors (see chapter 9) and autonomous adaptations are examined. After these steps are completed, vulnerability can be estimated, and subsequently, potential long-term adaptation actions can be examined.

IPCC seven steps (1994)

The IPCC seven steps lay out a process for estimating impacts from climate change, 11 reflecting the overall impact-focused steps shown in Figure 2-2, namely:

1. Define the problem; 2. Select the method; 3. Test the method; 4. Select scenarios; 5. Assess biophysical and socio-economic impacts; 6. Assess autonomous adjustments; 7. Evaluate adaptation strategies.

11 Carter et al., 1994; Parry and Carter, 1998.

Figure 2-: Main elements of impacts frameworks

Baseline Scenarios • Population • Institutions • GNP • Environment • Technology

Climate change scenarios

Biophysical impacts

Socioeconomic impacts

Autonomous Integration adaptation

Vulnerability

Purposeful adaptations

 U.S. Country Studies Program (1993–1999)

The U.S. Country Studies Program developed another impacts-focused framework.12 The framework documents a set of methods and models to develop climate change and socio- economic scenarios and to assess potential impacts on coastal resources, agriculture, livestock water resources, human health, terrestrial vegetation, wildlife and fisheries. The programme also provided guidance on adaptation. Documentation and data sets were given typically for one model in each sector.13

It is interesting for those considering the choice of V&A frameworks to review how the U.S. Country Studies Program framework has evolved over time into the more recently produced USAID Adapting to Climate Variability and Change; A Guidance Manual for Development Planning approach (see Section 3.2).

 UNEP Handbook on Methods for Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies (1998)

12 USCSP; Benioff and Warren, 1996; Benioff et al., 1996. 13 Further information on the USCSP can be found at .

The UNEP Handbook on Methods for Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies14 reviews methods and models for conducting impact assessments. It provides overall guidance to assist users sort through choices on methods and models. Users are encouraged to obtain the methods or models and training on their own. The handbook has chapters on the same topics as the USCSP, but also includes a chapter on assessing impacts of climate change on energy use.

2.3.2 ADAPTATION FRAMEWORKS

Adaptation frameworks, developed in recent years, focus on involving stakeholders and addressing adaptation needs. These frameworks also put relatively more emphasis on current concerns, such as vulnerability to climate variability and extreme events, in contrast to the longer-term perspective common with impact assessment frameworks.

UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework 2005 and 2010 version

The UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework (APF)15 emphasizes stakeholder involvement and analysis of vulnerability to current climate. The APF explicitly links climate change adaptation to sustainable development and global environmental issues. It is structured around four major principles, namely:

1. Adaptation to short-term climate variability and extreme events serves as a starting point for reducing vulnerability to longer-term climate change;

2. Adaptation policies and measures are assessed in a developmental context;

3. Adaptation occurs at different levels in society, including the local level;

4. The adaptation strategy and the implementation process are equally important.

The 2005 APF framework contains technical papers on: scoping an adaptation project; engaging stakeholders; assessing vulnerability; assessing current and future climate risks; assessing changing socio-economic conditions; assessing adaptive capacity; formulating an adaptation strategy and continuing the adaptation process.

The UNDP Toolkit for Designing Climate Change Adaptation Initiatives16 builds on the 2005 APF by taking an even more explicit decision-centred approach. The UNDP Toolkit essentially ‘works backwards’ from potential adaptive decisions, through seeking to analyse the underlying drivers of concerns (both climate change and broader developmental pressures) and providing guidance on structuring impact assessments that support these decisions. The UNDP Toolkit uses a six-step process, shown in Figure 2-3 with information on each step shown in Table 2-2. The UNDP Toolkit (p.11) describes the six steps as “a minimum set of activities for defining a project with a logical structure, throughout which stakeholder consultation is critical.

14 UNEP. 1998. Handbook on Methods for Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies. Available at: . 15 Ebi K, Lim B and Aguilar Y. 2005. UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework. Available at: . 16 UNDP. 2010. Toolkit for Designing Climate Change Adaptation Initiatives. Available at: .

Figure 2-: The UNDP Toolkit Six Steps for Designing an Adaptation Initiative (UNDP, 2010)

Table 2-: Key components in the UNDP Toolkit six-step approach

Step Description

1. Defining the problem. This step involves describing the climate change-induced problem that is of concern.

2. Identifying the causes of This step involves identifying the reason(s) for the climate the problem. change-induced problem. Analysis of the causes will involve examining development stresses upon which the additional climate change stress is superimposed. An examination of why the climate change-induced problem is not currently addressed may be required. There are likely to be a range of non-climate- related factors that are also at the heart of the problem. An understanding of the causes of the problem is critical for formulating a targeted adaptation initiative.

3. Identifying and Identify and articulate the normative response. This is the articulating the normative preferred solution or situation to address or manage the identified response. underlying problem(s). Several inputs, including: a) results of climate change assessments; b) findings from technical assessments, including those from applied research; c) technical expertise (local, sub-national, national, and international (where relevant); and d) political considerations need to be brought to bear to formulate the normative response.

4. Identifying key barriers. The underlying logic is to identify the reasons why, if a given situation is preferred, it has not already been put into practice or implemented. Once the normative response has been articulated, the next step involves identifying the set of barriers that must be overcome to meet the normative response. That is, a comprehensive mapping is required of all critical barriers that need to be removed to achieve the normative response. This mapping exercise is necessary, among other reasons, to determine the results that are sought and that linkages to other ongoing initiatives are made. This exercise builds upon the identification of the causes behind a given problem. It will enable project developers to determine the most appropriate level of intervention for a given initiative.

5. Designing project Once steps 1–4 are complete, enough information should be responses to overcome key available to design a clear and well-articulated adaptation barriers initiative. The design should include: a) expected results; b) tangible products/services that the initiative will deliver; c) activities and inputs that are required to achieve the key results and products/services. At this stage, the project design should

also address issues of financing and project monitoring and reporting.

6. Reviewing the first five The last step involves the review of the first five steps and steps and completing completion of checklists. This will help ensure that all steps are checklists to ensure due- complete and improve the project’s chance for effective diligence in meeting source implementation. of fund requirements

USAID 2007

The USAID Adapting to Climate Variability and Change; A Guidance Manual for Development Planning17 produced in 2007, applies USAID’s overall project cycle approach to adaptation planning, and also seeks to integrate climate change factors into all types of development assistance. The USAID approach is undertaken through six steps, within the four phases of problem diagnosis, project design, implementation and evaluation, shown in Figure 2-4.

Figure 2-: USAID Project Cycle and V&A Approach (USAID, 2007)

The USAID framework is viewed more of a cycle (in the style of Figure 2-) than a linear process “owing to the dynamic nature of assistance: the completion and evaluation of one project could provide the impetus for a subsequent project to build on the previous project’s accomplishments, or address issues that were absent in the previous design or emerged over the course of implementation” (USAID, 2007, p. 6).

Further detail on the USAID framework is show in Figure 2-. A valuable analysis of the application of the USAID framework in the Asia-Pacific region, in a range of developmental contexts and settings, is provided in the USAID report Asia-Pacific Regional Climate Change Adaptation Assessment.18

17 USAID. 2007. Adapting to Climate Variability and Change; A Guidance Manual for Development Planning. Available at: . 18 USAID. 2010. Asia-Pacific Regional Climate Change Adaptation Assessment. Available at: .

Figure 2-: Process and definitions in the USAID framework

Risk-based Frameworks

Risk management is the process of defining and analysing risks to facilitate decision- making on the appropriate course of action to minimize risk. Risk management is increasingly advocated as a valuable tool to assist in managing the risks and hazards that may occur as a result of climate change. Risk-based frameworks are used as the basis in both the United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP), and the Australian climate change adaptation planning processes. They are also widely used in the Asia- Pacific region mainly due to adoption by the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

An International Standards Organisation (ISO) Standard (ISO 31000:2009) Risk Management – Principles and Guidelines19 now supports these approaches. Risk-based frameworks can be applied in a number of contexts, from strategic-level screening assessments through to guiding local-level adaptive decision-making.

There are five phases in a risk assessment shown in Figure 2-, namely:

1. Set the context; 2. Identify the risks; 3. Analyse the risks; 4. Evaluate the risks; 5. Treat the risks.

Figure 2-: Five steps in the risk assessment framework20

19 Available for purchase from: . 20 Based on Australian Greenhouse Office, 2007. Climate Change Impacts and Risk Management: A Guide for Business and Government. Available at: .

According to the ISO Standard (31000:2009) risk is defined as:

The chance of something happening that will have an impact on objectives.

Consequently, a climate change risk can include positive risks (opportunities) and negative risks. Risks must also be risks ‘to something’, most often a risk to a management objective. This is a very important difference between risk-based frameworks and the impact-based frameworks described in Section ?? in that risk-based frameworks focus on ‘objectives’, as show in the definition of risk above. In practice this means that a clearly defined set of causal chains from climate variable through to the climate change in that variable, impact and risk must be developed (see Figure 2 - 7). This enables both a clear focus on what a non-Annex I Party is seeking to achieve in its V&A assessment and also enables a transition from the analysis of risk through to adaptation action plan development.

Using risk frameworks can also be beneficial in V&A contexts where there is engagement with particular sectors, such as insurance or engineering, where there is long-standing experience in using risk assessment methodologies, but not necessarily in a climate change context.

Figure 2-: Links between climate change drivers and risks (modified from: Australian Greenhouse Office, 2007)

The Second National Communication (SNC) of Columbia , for example, used a risk-based approach for their V&A that enabled the SNC team to “determine the risk of loss of goods, services or functionality” (Executive Summary page 57). Further information on the Columbian approach with respect to its application in supporting integration activities is shown in chapter 9.

NAPA/NAP guidance

The NAPA process was started under COP decision 28/CP.7 – and was superseded by COP decision 5/CP.17, which outlined the development of NAPs.

In the 46 NAPAs drafted as of December 2011, LDCs have identified their highest priorities/options for adaptation. There is a range of NAPA guidelines and support materials prepared by the least developed countries Expert Group (LEG)21 that discuss the objectives and structure of NAPAs and provide a framework for their preparation.

COP decision 5/CP.17 provided a new set of guidelines for the development of NAPs, shown in appendix 1.

Importantly, the LEG will continue to play a crucial supporting role in the development of enhanced guidance to LDCs in drafting their NAPs, including coordination of a broad range of activities (COP decision 5/CP.17, paragraph 12):

1. Technical guidelines for the NAPs; 2. Workshops and expert meetings; 3. Training activities; 4. Regional exchanges; 5. Syntheses of experiences, best practices and lessons learned; 6. Technical papers; 7. Technical advice.

Finally, while non-Annex I Parties that are not LDCs are not included in the NAP process, they are invited to use the NAP guidelines and related materials to assist in their national adaptation planning processes.

2.3.3 LOCAL AND COMMUNITY FRAMEWORKS

A number of V&A frameworks that focus on the community and local levels have been developed in recent years, mainly by NGOs, in response to a need for a ‘bottom-up’ community driven methods. Four of the most commonly used community-based frameworks in the NGO community were recently analysed by the OECD 22 shown in Table 2-3 .

21 . 22 OECD. 2011. Adaptation to Climate Change. Available at: .

Table 2-: Comparison of four NGO-developed local-level V&A frameworks (OECD, 2011)

Name Developer Target Key inputs Key Outputs Audience

CEDRA Tearfund Development Guidance and Identifies risks field practitioner checklist for six steps and risk with senior to identify and management management prioritize hazards and of programme, support adaptation options including changes to portfolio of projects

CVCA CARE Project Framework with Assessment managers, field supporting questions informs staff, local and exercises: programming partners and participatory and provides communities community-level evidence base analysis combines for advocacy local knowledge with climate science

CRiSTAL IISD, IUCN, SEI, Community- Two-module analytical Results serve IC level project framework for linking as a basis for planners and local livelihoods and designing or managers climate. MS Excel adjusting interface for entering projects for information and adaptation compiling report. Typically 1–5 days

Adaptation Christian Aid Country No set steps. Three Analysis Toolkit programme and toolkits for informs partner staff understanding livelihood livelihoods adaptation programming (PVCA), community and cc climate analysis and strategy strategy development development

The approaches outlined in Table 2-3 have all been applied in numerous projects within non-Annex I countries. Each has a slightly different focus, depending on the target audience and the development context. However, they all share a focus on assessing potential climate change impacts and responses by focusing initially on present-day climate hazards, through a vulnerability-driven approach. A comparison between the processes of the four approaches to community-level V&A is shown in Table 2-4.

Table 2-: NGO climate risk assessment processes (OECD, 2011)

CEDRA CVCA CRISTAL Adaptation Toolkit

Six steps for Series of questions Steps to identify Four basic stages to prioritizing and accompanying livelihood resources support adaptation environmental tools to understand (LR) exposed to to climate change in hazards that pose a climate-related climate hazards Christian Aid Secure risk to projects and vulnerability and and/or important to Livelihoods identifying and adaptive capacity coping, to be programme: choosing options to (CVC) in communities: reinforced in address them: projects:

1) Review available 1) Assess CVC at information on short- 1) Identify national level 1) Identify climate term weather and environmental change impacts longer-term climate hazards 2) Assess CVC at science local government/ 2) Identify current 2) Prioritize hazards community level climate hazards, 2) Compare with to address impacts, coping local or indigenous 3) Assess CVC at strategies knowledge of 3) Select adaptation household/individual communities most options level 3) Identify most directly affected important LR in the 4) Address community 3) Conduct unmanageable risks participatory NB: Guiding questions 4) Identify those LR vulnerability and 5) Consider new fall into four most vulnerable to capacity assessment projects and categories, which hazards and locations comprise CARE’s important to coping 4) Select the most Community-Based appropriate option 6) Continual review Adaptation (CBA) 5) Assess how for integration: Framework: project activities affect access to/ - Adaptation - Climate-resilient availability of these planning livelihoods key LR resources - Climate proofing - Disaster risk - Climate screening reduction 6) Adjust project - Capacity activities to development reinforce access to/ - Addressing availability of these underlying causes of key LR vulnerability

2.4 PRACTICAL CONSIDERATION IN FRAMEWORK SELECTION

The considerations that may affect the choice of a particular V&A framework at a conceptual level, outlined in the previous section, will also be shaped by practical considerations, including those highlighted during the V&A assessment planning process (see Section 2). Ensuring a balance of conceptual and practical factors, when combined effectively, should ensure the optimum choice of frameworks to seek the differential needs of non-Annex I Parties.

A V&A assessment should serve the needs of stakeholders, not the needs of the specialist conducting the study. If possible, stakeholders should be involved in the process, particularly to determine what is to be examined and what adaptation measures should be considered.

As outlined in Table 2-, there are many practical considerations that will shape the approach to V&A in national communications, including: access to resources (such as money, staff or information); availability of national and/or international expertise; and availability of time. An excellent resource kit produced by the UNDP National Communications Support Programme (NCSP) provides guidance on understanding these practical issues.23 Section 2 of the UNDP/NCSP resource kit includes information on preparing a work plan, timeline and budget, a project inception workshop and establishing systems and processes. A useful set of questions that can be asked to help shape the choice of V&A frameworks was provided in the UNFCCC Resource Guide, shown in Box 2-1.

Box 2-1: Sample questions to think about when initiating a vulnerability and adaptation assessment

 What is of concern – food production, water supply, health, ecosystem loss? (Concerns may be expressed not in climate terms, e.g. extreme temperature, but in consequences of climate impacts for people, e.g. drought, flood, malnutrition.)  Are there places (areas) that may be particularly vulnerable that may need specific risk assessments?  Who may be affected – where are they and what groups in society?  How far into the future is the concern?  For what purpose is the assessment to be used – raising awareness (education), policymaking?  What kind of output is needed?

Communications of Non-Annex I Parties. Available at .

23 The resource kit, Planning the National Communication Project, is available at: .

2.5 REFERENCES

AGO (Australian Greenhouse Office). 2006. Climate Change Impacts and Risk Management. A Guide for Business and Government. Australian Greenhouse Office, Department of the Environment and Water Resources.

Benioff R and Warren J (eds.). 1996. Steps in Preparing Climate Change Action Plans: A Handbook. Washington, DC: US Country Studies Program.

Benioff R, Guill S and Lee J (eds.). 1996. Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments: An International Guidebook. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Carter TR, Parry ML, Harasawa H and Nishioka S. 1994. IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations. London: Department of Geography, University College London.

Ebi K, Lim B and Aguilar Y. 2005. UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework. Available at: .

OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development). 2011. Adaptation to Climate Change. Available at: .

Parry M and Carter T. 1998. Climate Impact and Adaptation Assessment: A Guide to the IPCC Approach. London: Earthscan.

UNDP (United Nations Development Programme). 2010. Toolkit for Designing Climate Change Adaptation Initiatives. Available at: .

UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme). 1998. Handbook on Methods for Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies. Available at: .

USAID (United States Agency for International Development). 2007. Adapting to climate variability and change; a guidance manual for development planning. Available at: .

USAID. 2010. Asia-Pacific Regional Climate Change Adaptation Assessment. Available at: .

APPENDIX 1: DRAFT GUIDELINES FOR THE PREPARATION OF NATIONAL ADAPTATION PLANS BY LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRY PARTIES