Anglo-Malagasy Society

Newsletter No. XL - September 2004

SOCIETY ACTIVITIES EVENTS IN MADAGASCAR On 10 March the Society held a meeting at the From our own correspondent. The usual venue of the New Cavendish Club at Newsletter is written in this country and relies which one of our members Christina mainly on a study of some of the Malagasy Dodwell, well known as traveller, author and press. This issue contains at Annex A a review broadcaster, gave a talk entitled The People’s of the situation in Madagascar as seen by a Radio. She described the work of her charity, resident in Antananarivo. There may be some the Dodwell Trust, which finances the overlapping with items treated in more detail production of Malagasy soap operas below, but we are sure that the picture as seen portraying life in rural Madagascar and at the by our man on the spot will be of special same time conveying valuable lessons in interest to our readers. hygiene, health, nutrition and conservation. Local elections. As reported in the last The Trust also distributes clockwork radios to Newsletter, communal elections were held on villages so that as many people as possible can 9 November followed by municipal elections a listen to the programmes. The combination of fortnight later. They were marked by a high entertainment and education has proved highly degree of abstention, partly because of the effective and popular and the programmes frequency of elections in recent years - have in a relatively short space of time built up presidential, provincial and national assembly. an audience of several millions all over The results showed a growing maturity in the Madagascar. The expert presentation and the electorate, who are no longer content to vote frank answers to questions made this a most for the governing party as they did so enjoyable as well as instructive evening. massively in the past (with some help from At the Annual General Meeting on 25 intimidation and electoral fraud). The May another distinguished member, President’s party TIM was the overall winner Professor Alison Jolly, gave a presentation of but with only 56% of the total votes it was a her new book Lords and Lemurs, subtitled long way short of the expected landslide; and Mad Scientists, Kings with Spears and the it failed to win an overall majority in Survival of Diversity in Madagascar, which Toamasina and Fianarantsoa, where the was published in USA in April. Her talk elected mayors were respectively Roland attracted an unusually large audience and more Ratsiraka, nephew of the former President, and than lived up to the promise of the book’s Pety Rakotoniaina, a leading figure of the alluring title. With the help of numerous opposition since his abrupt dismissal as slides she presented a fascinating picture of Président de la Délégation Spéciale of human and animal life in south-eastern Fianarantsoa a year ago. The large number of Madagascar and especially the Berenty lemur successful independent candidates (some of reserve, interweaving the main events of both them in fact disguised members of other local and national history. The book itself, parties, especially AREMA) indicated a highly readable and beautifully written, is continuing mistrust of professional politicians. strongly recommended. It is not yet available Of the other established parties Norbert Ratsi- in this country but can be obtained on the rahonana’s AVI received 9.9% of the total internet (www.amazon.com) for $17 (list price vote, Leader/Fanilo 5.15% , RPSD Nouveau $25) which makes it a real bargain. 3.6% and AREMA only 1.4% (but see previous sentence). Possible explanations for the governing party’s poor performance are (a) TIM’s failure to establish a clear identity and party man. programme other than support for the FJKM and the President. When President; (b) resentment because TIM often Marc Ravalomanana was elected President he imposed candidates instead of accepting those did not resign his position as Vice-President of elected in local party primaries; and (c) FJKM (the United Reformed Church of disappointment at the government’s failure so Madagascar). At the General Synod of FJKM far to bring about any significant improvement at Ambatondrazaka in August he stood as a in the desperately low standards of living, candidate and was re-elected Vice-President especially in the countryside. by an overwhelming majority. While the Government reshuffle. The poor Constitution does not specifically bar the performance of TIM in the elections may have President of the Republic from retaining such a been one reason for the extensive changes in position there has been some feeling that the government at the beginning of January combining the two posts was not compatible when all ministers were replaced except for with the concept of Madagascar as a lay state. the Prime Minister, the Deputy Prime Minister His re-election as Vice-President of FJKM was and the Ministers of Foreign Affairs, Finance, accordingly criticised in the press and by some Industry and Mines and Energy. A further delegates to the Synod who felt that it was minor reshuffle took place in July when the contrary to the principle of the separation of Minister for Health and Family Planning and Church and State and risked involving FJKM the Minister for Industrialisation, Trade and in politics. the Private Sector were replaced. The latest Cyclones. The country has suffered composition of the Government is given at two major cyclones this year. At the end of Annex B. January/beginning of February cyclone Elita President Ravalomanana retains established a record by crossing the country much of his personal popularity, but support three times - east/west, west/east then east/ for his government has declined. Leaders of west again - inflicting serious damage to parties allied to the government, such as AVI infrastructure and buildings mainly in the (Norbert Ratsirahaonana) and MFM centre and south. Mahajanga was badly hit (Manandafy Rakotonirina) are increasingly with two-thirds of its buildings damaged. In critical of its performance. The President , Toliara the damage was to some extent with the support of international donors, has balanced by the associated heavy rains which made great efforts to get the economy moving brought welcome relief after a prolonged but has been frustrated by a general inertia and drought. Scores of thousands of people were the bad habits developed in recent decades - made homeless but there were fewer deaths corruption, peculation of public funds and than might have been expected as most people banditry in the countryside. The bold seem to have followed safety instructions after suspension of taxes on most imported goods the national radio broadcast warnings. announced last July has not had the desired A month later Elita was followed by an effect of stimulating the economy and helping even fiercer cyclone Gafilo, one of the most exporters. Instead it has contributed to the violent in the last 20 years, similar in scale to steep decline of the Malagasy franc (FMG) cyclone Geralda which devastated the east and a consequent increase in prices, coast in February 1994. After hitting the exacerbated by the recent rise in the world oil north-east, where large parts of Antalaha and price (for details see the section on the Maroantsetra were destroyed, it inflicted more Economy below). damage on Mahajanga, especially to the Despite these difficulties, visitors and harbour area, sinking or wrecking six vessels. travellers have noted that compared with life Other towns badly affected, especially by before 2002 there is still a general atmosphere floods, were Antsohihy, Analalava, of optimism and hope that things will get Ambatondrazaka, Faratsiho and the capital better under President Ravalomanana’s itself. After leaving to the west the cyclone leadership. At the same time there is concern turned back to attack Toliara province, though that so much rests on the shoulders of one with rather less force. The human toll was much greater than for Elita, with several of payments and accordingly the FMG, leading hundreds dead, mainly swept away by flood to more inflationary pressure. waters and including over a hundred Rova. The walls of the shell of the passengers and crew of a ferry boat from the Queen’s Palace are unstable and the high Comoros that sank 90 miles north of winds of the cyclones aroused fears that they Mahajanga. Hundreds more were reported might collapse. This may have brought missing and hundreds of thousands were left forward an announcement by the President in homeless. April that the Palace would be reconstructed to The international community rallied its original state, with the help of experts from round with emergency aid. France was first in Germany, UK, Norway, France and UNESCO. the field with two military aircraft from He also ordered the reopening of the inquest Réunion bringing 10 tons of tents, blankets, into the causes of the fire that destroyed the water containers and medicines plus 20 palace complex in 1995. firemen with equipment to clear roads blocked Decentralisation. The 1992 by fallen trees. The aircraft soon returned with Constitution provided for regions as a third 20 more tons of aid including food, tents and layer of local government between provinces tele-communications equipment. Libya sent and communes, but no action was taken to an aircraft with 40 tons of rice, followed by 40 establish regions until this year. At the tons of tents, blankets and clothes. USA beginning of the parliamentary session a provided $200,000 worth of plastic material to government bill to set up 22 regions after a make shelters and repair houses. The UN period of transition was introduced into the unblocked $50,000 of emergency aid and National Assembly and adopted quickly UNICEF provided $300,000 for a shipment of without any serious debate. The Senate gave it humanitarian aid including school materials more careful consideration and made various and children’s food supplements. The World amendments, one of which rejected the idea of Food Programme (WFP) sent 40 tons of a period of transition. They also rejected the vitaminised biscuits. The British Government government’s proposal that the presidents of gave £200,000 for the provision of clean water the regions should be appointed by the and medical aid for the prevention of government in favour of election by communal epidemics. and municipal councillors. After immediate needs had been dealt There was accordingly considerable with WFP and FAO sent a mission to establish surprise when on 2 September it was the extent of the damage inflicted by the two announced that 22 chefs de region had been cyclones. They reported 295 people killed, appointed by the President. This action 195 missing and 306,000 homeless; 116,000 seemed to pre-empt the question of how the buildings destroyed, including 200 schools and chefs should be appointed and to be contrary to 200 health centres; 450 bridges and sections of the principle of decentralisation. It also road destroyed; 11,733 animals killed; 316,000 appeared to be premature in the absence of hectares of cultivation damaged, including detailed legislation establishing the powers 116,000 hectares of rice either flooded or delegated to the regions and the role and buried in sand, 10,000 hectares of coconuts method of election of the regional officials. (30% of total) destroyed along with 21,000 There was also some criticism of the choice of hectares of coffee in the Sambirano region; the individual chefs, some of whom had been and 300 tons of vanilla lost (fortunately only unsuccessful TIM candidates in the recent 20% of a bumper crop). The total cost of the municipal elections. damage was estimated at $250 million, a DGID The Direction Générale devastating blow to the already feeble d’Investigation et de Documentation, which economy. The loss of export crops means that acquired a sinister reputation as Ratsiraka’s the goal of increasing exports by 30% in 2004 secret police during the Second Republic, was will not be achieved; while the probable need formally dissolved in January. It has been to import 250,000 tons of rice to make up for replaced by the CIS (Central Intelligence lost production will further weaken the balance Service) which is intended to operate more openly as a government information service. marine parks. This has become known as the It will be concerned with the war against Durban Vision, and in May the government terrorism, although the risk of a terrorist attack signed an agreement with the World Bank for in Madagascar is considered to be 14 on a the provision of $39 million in support of the scale of 1 to 100. It is also responsible for plan. (At present ANGAP (Association liaison with foreign intelligence services and Nationale pour la Gestion des Aires works with the immigration services on Protégées) has a budget of $3 million a year, matters such as naturalisation, immigration and international NGOs spend an additional and emigration. $1.5 million on eight reserves that they Independence Day bombings. For administer directly.) A committee of 100 the first time ever, the Independence Day members, representing some 35 agencies celebrations of 26 June were marred by including government ministries, aid donors bombing incidents in different parts of the and NGOs, is charged with implementing the country. In Toliara a grenade thrown behind Durban Vision. Much of the planning to the official stand during the opening fireworks prioritise areas that should be protected has display wounded 35 people. In Mahajanga a already been accomplished. Implementation home-made bomb thrown during the will involve the transfer of forest from national customary march past injured three children. to community management, along with setting In Fianarantsoa on the night before the up the safeguards and incentives that will celebrations a grenade thrown at the house of reward local people for preserving the land as the Vice-President of TIM destroyed two forest. It is planned that 25% of each vehicles. There is no suggestion of a link community’s zone will be totally protected; with international terrorism and the incidents the rest will be open to community use. may be related to local politics (though all Population. However the hopes of political parties have denounced the preserving the forests in the long term look bombings) or, in Fianarantsoa, the settling of a slender in the light of the relentless population personal grudge. Possible culprits are growth. The last census was in 1993, but a disgruntled army reservists who were called up recent study by the Population Reference during the 2002 crisis and were demobilised at Bureau in Washington estimates that the the beginning of this year with a gratuity of population reached 17 million in mid-2003. FMG 1 million (about £100) when they had With a birth rate of 43 per 1,000 and a death asked for 10 million. Some of them had rate of 13 per 1,000, the annual growth is of threatened to disrupt the independence the order of 3%. At this rate the population celebrations. will be 33 million in 2025 and 65.5 million in Environment. Despite efforts to 2050. The population profile is very different preserve the forests, they now cover only 10 from that in Western countries, with 45% of million hectares (17% of the country) the population less than 15 years old and only compared with 23 million hectares (39%) in 3% over 65. Expectation of life is 53 for men the 1950s. A recent American study has and 57 for women. suggested that at present rates of depletion The study stated that 0.3% of the 85% of the existing forest will have population between the ages of 15 and 45 are disappeared by 2020, which would leave only affected by AIDS, but this may be an under- 1.5 million hectares. This is approximately the estimate. The Government, through the total area of the 41 aires protégées created by National Centre for the Struggle against the government, which has spent $75 million, HIV/AIDS, is aiming to keep the incidence of mostly supplied by foreign aid, in the last ten HIV/AIDS below 1% through a campaign of years on establishing and protecting them. education, propaganda, medical care and the However at the International Parks supply of condoms, despite opposition from Congress in Durban in September 2003 the Catholic Church. The problem is still President Ravalomanana announced plans to small compared with many African countries, increase the protected areas to 5 million where 30-40% of the population are affected, hectares of forest and another 1 million of but it could expand rapidly in view of the generally relaxed attitude to sexual morality. until the second quarter of this year. In April it was reported that the price of rice, sugar, THE ECONOMY cooking oil and imported foods had increased Collapse of currency. The most striking by 10% and transport fares were up by 15%. In economic news has been the steep decline in March the Government tried to stem the tide the value of the Malagasy franc (FMG). A by freezing fuel prices, but the continuing year ago the exchange was around 9,300 = £1, decline of the currency and the rise in the but by the end of 2003 it was 11,000 = £1. world oil price made this impossible to sustain. The currency then declined rapidly to 14,000 Between the beginning of May and early June at the end of January, 17,000 in mid-April, the price of various types of motor fuel reaching 22,500 = £1 on 4 June. increased by from 40% (ordinary petrol) to The main cause of the decline has been 60% (unleaded). The latest price per litre is the two-year tax holiday on a wide range of FMG 8450 for ordinary petrol (47p at 18,000 imports decreed by the Government in July = £1), 11900 (66p) for unleaded and 6400 2003, with the aim of stimulating the economy (35p) for diesel, still cheap by British and helping export industries by providing standards but horrendously expensive for the cheaper imported components. However the Malagasy. At the beginning of July the immediate effect was a flood of imports, Government intervened again to freeze petrol mainly luxuries such as TVs and household prices, contrary to the liberalisation policies electrical goods, with many importers taking agreed with the IMF. As before, the freeze advantage of the tax holiday to stock up with proved to be unsustainable, but the alternative several years’ supply. Meanwhile exports - reducing fuel taxes which account for 70% of remained sluggish, partly because the world the petrol price - is even less palatable to a market for prawns and coffee was revenue-starved government. unfavourable. The result was a large increase Bank rate. In January 2003 the in the trade deficit, further exacerbated by the President had intervened to reduce the Central increase in the world oil price and the damage Bank base rate from 9% to 7% to help the to export crops caused by the cyclones. expansion of industry and encourage investors. Under pressure from the IMF and However in April this year inflationary public opinion the Council of Ministers on 4 pressures caused the Central Bank to raise the June approved various measures aimed at base rate to 9½%. At the same time the arresting the decline. It was considered obligatory reserves of commercial banks were politically impossible to cancel the tax raised from 12% to 15%. At the beginning of holiday, but VAT (though not customs and July, when forecasts of inflation by the end of import taxes) was re-imposed on a range of the year had risen to 10-12½%, the bank rate luxury articles and household electrical was again raised to 12%, which will be a appliances. The budget of the various State severe blow to local industry. institutions was reduced by 10% and Change of currency. It has been restrictions were imposed on the use of announced that the old 10,000 and 25,000 government vehicles because of the high price FMG notes will remain valid until 30 of fuel. The Government also established a November this year but thereafter can be special ‘safety net’ fund of FMG 100 billion to exchanged at banks until 31 December 2005. secure essential supplies for the poorest people From 1st January next year all contracts and who have been badly hit by price increases. other financial documents must be expressed With the help of a disbursement of $125 in ariary. But listing of prices in both FMG million from the World Bank to support the and ariary will be permitted until 31 December balance of payments, the currency 2005. strengthened and appeared to stabilise at Transport. Following the privat- around 18,000 = £1 in July. isation of the railways, rail services are Inflation. The increased price of gradually being restored. The new owner of imports naturally caused a rise in inflation, the northern sector, Madarail, has imported though this was not reflected in official figures seven new locomotives and rehabilitated four of the existing engines. By the end of this year services to Bangkok (replacing the former three more will be rehabilitated making a total flights to Singapore) and to Milan (from both of fourteen. By the beginning of this year 123 Antananarivo and Nosy Be) to cater for the freight wagons, including oil tanker wagons, growing number of Italian tourists. Apart had been rehabilitated. Starting in July 2003 from its three flights a week to Paris, Air freight traffic was gradually resumed on all Madagascar now operates (with Air Austral) three northern lines: Antananarivo - two flights a week to Johannesburg, and is Toamasina, Moramanga - Lac Alaotra and planning to introduce direct flights from (from July 2004) Antananarivo - Antsirabe. Jo’burg to Nosy Be; three flights a week to These services are carried out commercially, Mauritius, shared with Air Mauritius; daily with no subsidy from the state. However, flights to Réunion, shared with Air Austral and passenger traffic is regarded as a public Air France; and weekly flights to Moroni, service and discussions have taken place on Nairobi and the Seychelles. But fares remain the need for and level of subsidy. Passenger expensive. The standard fare for a return flight carriages will be available by the end of 2004. Paris-Tana with either Air France or Air It is likely that the first passenger service Madagascar is more than double Air France’s opened will be between Moramanga and fare for a return flight from Paris to Sydney; Ambila on the Toamasina line, a sector where and the Tana-Jo’burg flight costs more than access by road is especially difficult. London-Jo’burg. Rehabilitation of roads remains the Privatisation continues at a very slow government’s top priority. The largest aid pace. In June TELMA (telecommunications) donor, the European Union, devotes a large was finally taken over by a private company proportion of its aid funds to the transport Distacom, with the state retaining 28% of the sector. Between 1993 and 2002 the EU gave shares. Tenders for HASYMA (cotton grants totalling €125 million for roads and production) have been issued and it is reported airports. For the period 2003-2007 €245 that five major foreign companies, French, million has been promised, nearly all of which Swiss and American, are interested. Tenders (€222 million) will be committed before the for pre-qualification have also been announced end of this year, leaving €23 million as a for JIRAMA (electricity and water), but it reserve for contingencies such as contract may be difficult to attract investors. Tariffs price increases. In June the EU representative are already high and, owing to the high price signed an agreement for the grant of €90 of oil and the weakness of the Malagasy million to asphalt the last section of Route 6 currency, any new owner would have to raise (the road to Diego Suarez along the west them further. Still on the list are SIRAMA coast) between Port Bergé and Ambanja. This (sugar) ADEMA (Ports) and Air Madagascar. brings closer the day when it will be possible Coffee. Because of over-production in to drive on tarred roads from one end of the Brazil and Vietnam, the price has continued to island to the other. fall along with the volume of exports. The Last December the World Bank signed 40,000 tons exported from Madagascar in an agreement to provide $150 million for 1992 fell to 8,600 tons in 2002 and 7,100 tons transport infrastructure, including rehabil- in 2003, and the industry only survives itation of roads. Switzerland and China have because of the strength of local consumption - also devoted substantial bilateral funds to road 26,000 tons in 2002. The decline of coffee is improvement. Recent visitors have likely to continue as there is little incentive for commented on the improvement of the road the producers, who receive only 1,000 - 2,000 system and it is hoped that travel by road may FMG per kilo, compared with10,000 FMG in soon provide a viable alternative to air 1988/89. Many are likely to abandon coffee transport, which remains expensive on internal and diversify into alternatives such as pepper, as well as external flights. lychees and cloves. In May Air Madagascar took delivery Vanilla. The price of vanilla continues of a second long-haul Boeing 767-300. This to fluctuate wildly. Last year it reached a enabled it to introduce, from early June, new record high of $400/kg but by June it had fallen to one-third of that - $130/kg - as large production of the carpets has been re- stocks held by Madagascar and other established. A large part of world production producers were released on to the market. now comes from Ampanihy. Plain carpets Because of the decline of the currency the cost between 100,000 and 300,000 FMG, but a price fall does not look so severe in FMG - high quality carpet with an artistic design can from 2.4 million the kilo to 1.4 million, but it cost as much as €250 (£160) a square meter. is still bad enough. The growers are suffering There also seem hopes of a return of as the price paid to them for ‘green’ vanilla papier antaimoro (decorative paper has fallen from FMG300,000/kg last year to containing pressed flowers) to Madagascar. between 25,000 and 50,000/kg. In the hope of The Mathieu family who used to manufacture restoring some of the price fall the the paper at Ambalavao south of Fianarantsoa Government suspended vanilla exports in returned to France during the difficult years of June. Despite the losses caused by cyclone the 1980s, but continued to make the paper in Gafilo, exports from the present crop could a factory in Bordeaux and also in Réunion. reach 1300 tons. Even at the present price this However it is reported that Pierre Mathieu, the would bring in export receipts of $170 million. son of the founder of the business, is thinking Prawns. The once-booming shellfish of setting up a workshop near Ivato. industry is also in trouble because of over- fishing which has reduced the size and CULTURE therefore the value of the prawns. Moreover Our member Hanitra Rasoanaivo Anderson there has been a fall in the world price for will be directing the first ever Indian Ocean small prawns because of spectacular increases World Music Festival in Antananarivo from 9 in production in South East Asia and Latin to 11 April next year. The majority of groups America. The Government is considering participating will be from the islands, various measures to check over-fishing such as including many of Madagascar’s own diverse shortening the season for prawn fishing, groups, and neighbouring East Africa. The increasing the diameter of the mesh of fishing festival is designed to attract many local nets and more rigorous regulation and people as well as international visitors to the licensing. island, and to provide artists form the Indian Tourism is taking a long time to Ocean region with a rare opportunity to meet, recover from the disruption of 2002. Travel exchange ideas, learn from each other and agents who had to cancel many tours in that create new music. The festival’s headquarters year are hesitant about promoting Madagascar will be at ANTSHOW, the Malagasy Arts as a tourist destination. In 2003 the number of Centre set up in Antananarivo by Hanitra two tourists visiting Madagascar was only 109,000 years ago. Any members planning to visit (in 2000 the number was 160,000). Alarming Madagascar next spring might wish to time reports of the damaged caused by cyclones their visit to coincide with what seems certain Elita and Gafilo have also been discouraging. to be a most exciting musical event. Despite the attraction of even lower prices following the devaluation of the Malagasy ANGLO-MALAGASY RELATIONS franc, it seems unlikely that numbers will In December 2003 the Office des mines increase much this year. The goal of 500,000 nationales et des industries stratégiques tourists by 2007 seems a long way off. (OMNIS) signed two agreements with the Crafts. While the main foreign British firm Vuna Energy. One was for the exchange earners are facing various exploitation of coal at Sakoa in the south-west difficulties the arts and crafts sector is doing with a view to generating electricity for the rather better. As was reported some years ago surrounding area. The other was for a the mohair carpet industry at Ampanihy in feasibility study of the possibility of the Mahafaly area of the far south had declined commercial exploitation of bituminous owing to cross-breeding of the angora goats. sandstone at Bemolanga, heavy oil deposits at Pure-bred angora goats were reintroduced by a Tsimimoro and gas to the west of Manambolo. Frenchman Eric Mallet and high-quality In July, OMNIS signed two further contracts with another British company Sterling Energy for oil exploration in two offshore areas min the Mozambique Channel, one of 20,800 km² west of Ambilobe and the other of 13,147 km² off Ampasindava.

In January the Council of Ministers formally confirmed the decision to re-open the Embassy in London. However there has been no sign of action to implement the decision. With the sharp fall in value of the Malagasy currency making property in London appear even more expensive, it may be some time before it happens.

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