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Home , Betty Sutton, Elton Gallegly, Janice Hahn, Steve Austria, Wally Herger

February 2012

Congressional Campaign Update Overview With a little more than 250 campaigning days left before election day, a quick snapshot of the current state of play in the House and the Senate races is in order. In the House all 435 seats will be on the ballot, and in the Senate 33 statewide races will be held. Democrats need to pick up a net total of 25 seats in the House to claim the majority, and must prevent the Republicans from picking up 4 seats, and the majority, in the Senate.

Senate Retirement House Retirement

Kent Conrad (D) Mike Ross (D) Dale Kildee (D) Joe Lieberman (I) Jeff Flake (R) Todd Akin (R) Jim Webb (D) Gabby Giffords (D) Denny Rehberg (R) Jeff Bingaman (D) (R) Brad Miller (D) Daniel Akaka (D) (D) Rick Berg (R) Herb Kohl (D) Jerry Lewis (R) Martin Heinrich (D) Ben Nelson (D) (D) Shelley Berkley (D) Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) (R) Maurice Hinchey (D) Jon Kyle (R) (D) (R) Chris Murphy (D) Dan Boren (D) With three retirements over the past month, the 2012 Connie Mack (R) David Wu (D) Senate landscape is quickly taking shape. So far, it’s been Mazie Hirono (D) Todd Platts (R) somewhat welcome news for Republicans aiming to take back the Senate majority next year. Democrats must Jerry Costello (D) Ron Paul (R) defend 23 seats, 10 of which are currently considered Joe Donnelly (D) Charlie Gonzalez (D) competitive, while Republicans must defend 10 seats, Dan Burton (R) Jay Inslee (D) only 2 of which are currently considered competitive. Mike Pence (R) Tammy Baldwin (D) Geoff Davis (R) Heath Shuler (D) John Olver (D) Sue Myrick (R) House Member vs. Member Barney Frank (D) Ben Quayle vs David Schweikert Three of the 21 House Democratic retirements had their seats eliminated by vs redistricting, leaving Democrats to defend 18 open seats, while the GOP will vs try to hold onto 14 open seats. The Cook Political Report’s Partisan Voter Index Leonard Boswell vs Tom Latham indicated that the GOP has a credible advantage in 4 of the Democrats’ 18 open Adam Kinzinger vs Don Manzullo seats and loses the upper hand in one. Charles Boustany vs Jeff Landry Hansen Clarke vs Gary Peters Russ Carnahan vs Lacy Clay Bill Pascrell vs Party Breakdown of Seats Currently Seen as vs Competitive (Lean or Tossup) vs Jason Altmire vs Mark Critz Senate John Mica vs Sandy Adams Democrats Republicans Before the once-every-ten-years Congressional 10 2 redistricting process began, several commentators had suggested redistricting would produce large Republican House gains that would ensure one-party domination for the next Democrats Republicans decade. However, with the process largely completed, most observers now believe that redistricting will be a 19 31 “wash” that will not produce significant net gains for either

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