QTI Duration Estimating Chart Template

For detailed instructions on how to use this tool, see Project Management Demystified by Sid Kemp (McGraw-Hill 2004), Chapter 10: Planning and Estimation.

Template for Copying Duration Estimating Chart Project Name:

Project Lead: From WBS From person performing the task Calculated Task # Task name Estimated times PERT time gut final feeling estimate (weighted Minimum Likely Maximum average) (optimistic) (realistic) (pessimistic) 1 2 3 4

QTI Duration Estimating Chart Template 2004-01 Page 1 of 4

See Project Management Demystified by Sid Kemp (McGraw-Hill, 2004)

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© QTI, Inc. 2004 www.qualitytechnology.com Steps: 1. Place all the lowest-level steps from the WBS in columns 1 and 2. 2. Make sure the person estimating the work understands the difference between effort (person/hours) and duration (length of time to completion, and is answering in effort, not duration. 3. For each task, ask the following four questions:  What is the shortest amount of time this might take, if it goes really well? (Put in minimum box.)  What is longest it might take, if problems come up? (Put in maximum box.)  What is it likely to take? (Put in likely box.)  If you were starting right now, and I said, “Tell me when you’re confident you’ll be done?” (Put in the gut feel box.) 4. Calculate the PERT (weighted) average as (optimistic + 4xrealistic + pessimistic)/6, to give a centered average. 5. Select the PERT or gut feel value, or something between them, for your final estimate for each task. 6. Enter the WBS with the final estimate in a project management tool and add links (dependencies) for full schedule development. Notes: PERT stands for Project Evaluation and Review Technique, a project and time management developed by NASA and now part of the PMBOK standard. Each task from the WBS should be estimated at the lowest level of detail. Ideally, the person providing the minimum/likely/maximum figures should be the person who will do the work. If not, then numbers can be adjusted based on the different work speed of the estimator and the actual worker assigned. If you wish to calculate PERT time and time totals automatically, you can recreate this form in an Excel spreadsheet.

© QTI, Inc. 2004 www.qualitytechnology.com Field definitions from WBS Task #: Copied from WBS. in format 1.2.3.4 Task name: Copied from WBS Times (estimated ) Minimum: The shortest reasonable time to do the job Likely: The time it would normally take to do the work Maximum: The time it would take if problems arose (not worst case, but worst likely case) Times (calculated) PERT Statistical average PERT Time = ((min)+4*(likely)+(max))/6 (This gives an average weighted toward the middle. 6 is the divisor because you are averaging a total of six times, one minimum plus four likelies plus one maximum). Gut feeling. Looking at all prior numbers, what feels right Final estimate: Looking at PERT estimate and gut feeling, what is your “final answer” to be used in all future reports

Project Lead: Typical employee From WBS From person performing the task Calculated Task # Task name Estimated times PERT time gut final feeling estimate Minimum Likely Maximum

1 Door to desk time it takes to get 15 30 120 42.5 45 45 minutes to work minutes minutes minutes minutes minutes

Notes on example Student in class was asked how long it usually took him to get to work from leaving his house to getting to his desk.  He said 30 minutes (likely).  He was asked how what the shortest morning commute he had ever had was. He said 15 minutes (minimum).  He was asked what his longest trip ever was. He said 2 hours (maximum)  PERT calculation came to 42.5 minutes  He was asked, if you had to be sure to arrive in time for an important morning meeting at your arrival time, how much would you allow. He said 45 minutes. (Gut feeling)  Final estimate was selected to match gut feeling, which was essentially the same as PERT.