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Uttarakhand Pre-Election Tracker Survey, Round-2, January 2017

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Uttarakhand Pre-Election Tracker Survey, Round-2, January 2017 Uttarakhand Pre-Election Tracker Survey, Round-2, January 2017 About the Survey This analysis is based on the second round of the pre-election tracker survey conducted in Uttarakhand by Lokniti, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), Delhi, for ABP News. The survey was conducted from January 15 through January 20, 2017 among 1845 voters in 98 locations (polling stations) spread across 20 assembly constituencies. These are the same constituencies and polling stations where Lokniti had conducted the first round of the tracker survey in December 2016. The sampling design adopted was Multi-stage random sampling. The assembly constituencies where the survey was conducted were randomly selected using the probability proportional to size method. Thereafter, five polling stations within each of the sampled constituencies were selected using the systematic random sampling method. Finally, the respondents were also randomly selected from the electoral rolls of the sampled polling stations. Before going to the field for the survey, field investigators were imparted training about the survey method and interviewing techniques at a day-long training workshop held in Srinagar, Garhwal. The field investigators conducted face-to-face interviews of the respondents in Hindi asking them a set of standardized questions. The duration of an interview was about 15 minutes. The survey could not be conducted at two locations in two assembly seats. At some locations the non-availability of sampled respondents or difficulty in finding households necessitated replacements or substitutions. Meanwhile, inaccessibility of some of the areas of the state due to snowfall resulted in a low completion rate in some constituencies. The achieved sample has been weighted by age-groups, gender, locality, religion, and caste group, based on Census 2011. The poll has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 points. The error margin increases for cross-tabulations. Profile of Achieved Sample in Uttarakhand Survey Census Sample 2011 (%) (%) Scheduled Caste (18+ years) 13.0 17.4 Muslim 9.9 13.9* Women (18+ years) 45.5 50.1 Urban (18+ years) 33.1 31.9 18-25 years 13.0 26.0 26-35 years 26.2 24.1 36-45 years 21.9 19.1 46-55 years 16.4 13.2 56+ years 22.4 17.6 *Includes all ages The fieldwork of the survey was coordinated by Dr. Rakesh Negi, Assistant Professor (Ad hoc) at Hemvati Nandan Bahuguna Garhwal University, Srinagar. The survey was designed and analysed by a team of researchers at Lokniti. The team included Asmita Aasaavari, Arushi Gupta, Dhananjay Kumar Singh, Himanshu Bhattacharya, Jyoti Mishra, Souradeep Banerjee, Shashwat Dhar, Shreyas Sardesai and Vibha Attri. The survey was directed by Prof. Sanjay Kumar, Prof. Suhas Palshikar and Prof. Sandeep Shastri of Lokniti. Survey details in a nutshell Conducted by Lokniti-CSDS, for ABP News Dates of fieldwork Jan 15-20, 2017 No. of Assembly Constituencies covered 20 No. of Polling Stations (Locations) covered 98 No. of interviews conducted (Sample size) 1845 Overall Margin of Error +/-3.3 Sampling method Multi-stage random sampling Fieldwork method Standardized face-to-face interview in Hindi Summary of Findings Lokniti team The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) continues to be ahead of the ruling Indian National Congress (Congress) in Uttarakhand, however the vote difference between the two parties has narrowed considerably over the last one month. The Lokniti-CSDS pre-election Tracker survey conducted in the state between January 15 and 20, 2017 among 1845 voters spread across 98 locations in 20 assembly constituencies found the ruling Congress to be securing 36 percent of the votes, which is up by 3 percentage points since the first round of the Tracker survey conducted by Lokniti- CSDS in December 2016. Its main rival the BJP, which had been way ahead in the last survey, has seen its vote share drop by one point to 39 percent. In a state where such closely fought contests are the norm rather than the exception, these findings come as no surprise. In the days ahead a lot may depend on indecisive voters. The survey found a little over one in every three (36 per cent) voters of the BSP and two in every five (41 per cent) voters of other smaller parties to be unsure about their voting choice. In other words, even though these voters had certain political preferences in mid-January when the survey was conducted, their voting decisions might change on or closer to the day of election. Interestingly, voters voting for these smaller parties were found to be slightly more inclined to believe that the Congress is winning the assembly election rather than the BJP. While this may just be a perception, it may benefit the Congress if there is a last minute shift of votes. The survey which was conducted at a time when the Congress and the BJP had not announced all their candidates, found that nearly one-thirds (31 percent) of the respondents are planning to vote on February 15 keeping in mind the candidates standing from their respective constituencies. In the December survey, the proportion of those who had said they will vote on the basis of candidates had been much less at 19 percent or one in five. As one gets closer to the polls, voters seem to be more concerned about the candidates being fielded in their constituencies. The latest survey found the vote difference between the BJP and Congress to have reduced considerably in the Maidaan and Garhwal regions of the state. In Maidaan, the BJP had been ahead of the Congress by a margin of ten percentage points in early December. This has now reduced to about six points. In Garhwal, the BJP continues to be comfortably placed but here too the Congress seems to be catching up. Meanwhile, the Congress maintains its overall vote lead over the BJP in the Kumaon region. Overall, the ruling party leads its challenger among rural voters but trails it by seven points among voters living in urban areas. In terms of caste and community preferences, the Congress was found to be doing far better among Muslims, Dalits and OBCs than it was in the first round. Meanwhile, Brahmins seem to have further consolidated behind the BJP since December. An increase in Chief Minister Harish Rawat’s popularity over the last one month seems to be one of the chief reasons for the rise in the Congress’s vote share. Whereas in December only 19 percent of the voters had expressed a spontaneous desire to see Rawat back as CM in response to an open-ended question on CM preference, in the latest survey the proportion of those favouring Rawat went up to 31 percent. Rawat’s performance as chief minister is also rated quite highly by the voters. About 80 percent of the voters were found to be satisfied with his performance, an eight point rise since the previous survey. Moreover, this overall rating of Rawat’s performance was found to be just five points less than the approval rating of Narendra Modi as Prime Minister. However, despite Rawat’s appeal, factionalism in the ruling party might hurt its electoral prospects. The survey found 4 percent of the respondents favouring state Congress President Kishore Upadhyay for the post of chief minister and among them only only-fifth (21 percent) were found to be voting for the Congress. Similarly about two percent wanted to see other Congress leaders as chief minister and four in every five of them do not plan to vote for the Congress. The BJP seems on a much firmer footing in this respect, as almost all supporters of various BJP leaders are voting overwhelmingly for the party. There is a bit of worrying news for the BJP, however. The groundswell of support which demonetization (notebandi) had evoked from the voters in December 2016, has dropped substantially (from 60 percent to 46 per cent). Four of every ten voters (40 percent) now think that the decision might have been well intentioned but was done without preparation. Meanwhile one in every ten (9 percent) voters said that demonetization should never have happened. Interestingly, the Congress seems to have gained a great deal from this shift in mood. The survey found a considerable rise in support for the party among those who were strongly critical of the move. The survey also found a stark reversal of opinions on whether the common man had suffered more than the rich owing to notebandi, with many more people (36 percent compared to 26 percent in December) now taking the view that the common man had suffered more. Uttarakhand Pre-Election Tracker Survey, Round-2, January 2017 (Findings) Overall Estimated Vote Share if Assembly Polls had been held in third week of January Vote estimate Change since Jan 2017 Dec 2016 (%) (% points) Indian National Congress (Cong) 36 +3 Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) 39 -1 Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) 6 -2 Others 19 0 Note: Undecided voters who did not disclose their vote preference have been distributed proportionally after a careful analysis. The question asked was: If assembly elections in Uttarakhand are held tomorrow then what party will you vote for? We are giving you a slip which has the names and symbols of different parties. Please mark your vote on this slip and put it in this box. About two in five voters of BSP and Other parties may change their vote on Election Day Will vote for same May vote for Gave no party on Election Day (%) someone else (%) response (%) All voters 73 17 10 Cong voters 83 8 9 BJP voters 84 9 8 BSP voters 58 36 6 Others’ voters 39 41 20 Note: Figures may not add up to 100 due to rounding The question asked was: On the day of voting will
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