______
MARKET STUDY
OF
THE BRIDGES AT SOUTHLAKE
A PROPOSED 55 UNIT FAMILY APARTMENT COMPLEX
CITY OF ALBANY, DOUGHERTY COUNTY, GEORGIA
AS OF
JUNE 9, 2007
PREPARED FOR
State of Georgia
Department of Community Affairs
60 Executive Park South, N.E.
Atlanta, Georgia 30329
PREPARED BY:
RLJ AND COMPANY
1024 LAKE CHARLES DRIVE
ROSWELL, GEORGIA 30075
(770) 640-7313 FAX: (770) 640-5251
______
RLJ & Company Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants
TABLE OF CONTENTS
A. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2
B. PROJECT DESCRIPTION 5
C. SITE EVALUATION 11
D. MARKET AREA 17
E. COMMUNITY DEMOGRAPHIC DATA 22
F. PROJECT-SPECIFIC DEMAND ANALYSIS 29
G. COMPARABLE RENTAL ANALYSIS 34
H. INTERVIEWS 68
I. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 68
J. SIGNED STATEMENT REQUIREMENTS 73
ADDENDA
Demographics
Fair Market Rents
Utility Allowance Schedule
Income Limits
______
RLJ & Company Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants
59
NOTICE
It is imperative for the reader of this document to understand the data presented and analyzed herein, the study methodology employed, the role of judgments as distinct form calculations based on a specified methodology, the factors that affect projects, and changes that, over time, may result in an outcome different from that projected.
All prospective data (i.e., projections) are subject to changing market and economic conditions and other uncertainties. Hence, the reader must be fully cognizant of the possibility that, as market and economic factors affecting the subject property materialize, they may impact the property in such a way that actual market and financial performance differs from projections. Legal changes – including but not limited to zoning and tax laws and environmental, soil, and wetlands regulations – are also likely to affect real estate performance, and hence value.
The purpose of market, economic and financial projections is to provide a supportable and defensible opinion on potential economic returns from the project and also to provide the basis for the projections so that they can be evaluated by the reader in terms of methodology employed, the data analyzed and applied, and the judgments that were made.
The projections reported herein have been prepared using information, assumptions, and calculations outlined in this report. Information, other than that provided by the client, is from numerous public and private sources, believed to be reliable, as well as from RLJ & Company. It should be noted that all direct and indirect information supplied by others is assumed to be true and accurate. However, RLJ & Company assumes no responsibility for information supplied by others, although any such information cited is believed to be reliable and correct. RLJ & Company has reviewed the information provided for reasonableness and consistency. Further, the projections reported herein rely on property-specific data provided by the client and/or its agents. Care has been taken by RLJ & Company to present correct factual information in regard to the subject property; nonetheless, the reader is hereby advised to reach his/her own independent conclusions concerning all facts, as no representations are made by RLJ & Company as respects property ownership, property site, zoning conformance, occupancy and lease terms, availability of utilities, soil conditions, flood hazard, environmental problems, or any other matters. The information, finding, conclusions, recommendations and projects presented herein are intended solely for internal use by the client.
RLJ & Company is a real estate appraisal and consulting firm whose business activity includes valuations, the analysis of market potential, and analysis and evaluation of projected operating and financial performance. The firm routinely performs assignments for financial institutions, building and development organizations, property owners, and the like. RLJ & Company considers that it is well qualified in these areas; however, it is important to note that evaluating market support and projecting financial results for real estate development is not a precise science. Furthermore, in RLJ & Company’s opinion, the methodology and other procedures employed are valid and accepted methods of evaluating real estate. Finally, RLJ & Company recommends that its clients recognize these limitations inherent in using such projections as are contained herein to make business decisions.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Project Description And Site Evaluation:
Project Name: The Bridges at Southlake
Location: Ebony Lane, west of Martin Luther King Jr Drive and east of South Madison Street, City of Albany, Georgia.
Project Type: The proposed construction of a 55-unit two-bedroom and three-bedroom family apartment complex.
Project Developer: Vantage Partners 2007 GA, LLC.
Plan of Operation: The proposed development will be comprised of fifty-five (55): 2-bedroom and 3-bedroom units. This complex is a LIHTC complex, where 100% of the units are utilizing the Low Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) program, Section 42 of the Internal Revenue code. To qualify, the households will have incomes no greater than 30%, 50% or 60% of the area’s median income. 11% of the units will be 30% of median income, 25% of the units will be 50% of median income, and 64% of the units will be 60% of median income. The project will be located on a 3.59± acre tract off of Ebony Lane, west of Martin Luther King Jr. Drive. The estimated project opening is October, 2009.
Market Area: After consultation with area real estate professionals and field work, it is determined that the primary market area is defined by the following estimated boundaries:
Eastern boundary: Dougherty County Line
Western boundary: Lockett Station Road
Southern boundary: Dougherty County Line
Northern boundary: Dougherty County Line
All boundaries can be reached within a 15 minute drive of the subject. The subject will draw a limited number of tenants from the surrounding county just outside of the primary market area, but that number should be minimal.
Demographics: Population in the market area has remained relatively stable with an increase of 3.3% since 2000 to 102,436. During the same period, the number of households increased by 5.7% to 38,556. The number of households is expected to increase by 3.1% by the year 2012 to 39,752 and should positively impact the demand for housing. The size of the households is expected to remain the same at 2.5 persons/household. In researching current demographic data for the area, we researched the U.S. Bureau of the Census as well as the Environmental Systems Research Institute information databases. We also conducted interviews with local government officials and property managers. We found the published U.S. Bureau of the Census figures to be holding true, and that the area has not seen any increase in population due to the hurricanes along the U.S. gulf coast during 2005.
Demand Analysis: The 2007 Area Median Family Income for LIHTC Compliance is $48,300. Approximately 13,337 households have incomes that are between $6,480 and $33,617 and would qualify for the LIHTC housing units in this proposed project. An estimated 4,833 renter/size-qualified households in the primary market area will qualify for the subject property. Further calculating for draw from the secondary market, a total of 5,558 households will qualify for the subject property. This equates to an overall capture rate for the project of 0.99%.
Supply Analysis: The existing multi-family housing stock ranges from 1 year to 44 years in age and is in excellent to poor condition. All of the complexes surveyed in the market were virtually 100% occupied. Proposed rents for the proposed project are competitive with current rents at the surveyed comparable properties.
Capture Rate Analysis:
Unit Size / Income Limits / Units Proposed / Total Demand / Supply / Net Demand / Capture Rate / Median Market Rent / Proposed Net Rents2 BR / 30% AMI / 4 / 3,036 / 63 / 2,973 / 0.13% / $258 / $189
2 BR / 50% AMI / 9 / 2,083 / 287 / 1,796 / 0.50% / $454 / $395
2 BR / 60% AMI / 22 / 2,809 / 162 / 2,647 / 0.83% / $507 / $410
3 BR / 30%AMI / 2 / 1,783 / 43 / 1,740 / 0.11% / $293 / $210
3 BR / 50% AMI / 5 / 2,190 / 209 / 1,981 / 0.25% / $525 / $450
3 BR / 60% AMI / 13 / 2,960 / 150 / 2,810 / 0.46% / $569 / $465
Proposed Capture Rate ALL Units / 0.99%
Proposed Project Stabilization Period / 4-6 Months
Interviews: In speaking with the Albany Housing Authority, the Albany Planning Department, and most of the apartment complex leasing and management personnel, all agreed that an affordable housing development would be beneficial in this market area, and specifically in the three-bedroom and four-bedroom unit sizes. All of the apartment managers in the area reported near 100% occupancy and stated that vacancies are usually filled immediately from their waiting lists or from walk-ins. All LIHTC property managers that were contacted stated that the units proposed for the subject property are needed in the market and that the subject should not have any problem gaining full occupancy within a short period of time. The City of Albany has displayed the need for the subject project by designating the subject neighborhood as a HUD revitalization area.
Conclusions: The analysts that conducted this market study have concluded that the proposed subject property development is viable in the market. The positive attributes include the location of the site as it relates to employment centers, shopping area, ease of access to neighborhood and highway systems throughout the market area, access to excellent schools and recreation facilities. Most comparable LIHTC properties in the market currently have long waiting lists for units. This further supports the viability of the subject development.
PROJECT DESCRIPTION
The subject site is located south of downtown Albany, just west of Martin Luther King Jr Drive. The subject site is located along Ebony Lane, a two lane residential street that runs west from Martin Luther King Jr. Drive. The proposed development will be located on a 3.59± acre tract.
The proposed development will contain fifty-five (55) newly constructed two-bedroom and three-bedroom units in nine two-story buildings. This complex is a proposed LIHTC complex, where 100% of the units are utilizing the Low Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) program, Section 42 of the Internal Revenue code. To qualify, the households will have incomes no greater than 30%, 50% or 60% of the area’s median income. 11% of the units will be 30% of median income, 25% of the units will be 50% of median income, and 64% of the units will be 60% of median income. The project will be located on a 3.59± acre tract off of Ebony Lane, west of Martin Luther King Jr. Drive. The estimated project opening is October, 2009.
UNIT MIX & SIZE
Unit Type / # of Units / % Mix / Square Feet2 BR / 2 BA / 2 / 3% / 1,103
2 BR / 2 ½ BA / 33 / 60% / 1,248
3 BR / 2 BA / 2 / 3% / 1,280
3 BR / 2 ½ BA / 18 / 33% / 1,600
Total / 55 / 100% / 74,478
Unit Amenities
· Electric Stove / Oven
· Frost-Free Refrigerator
· Dishwasher
· Mini-blinds
· Central Air Conditioning
· Smoke / CO2 Detectors
· Individual Unit Entry
· Storage closet
· Laundry room with Washer/ Dryer Connections
· Kitchen, & Bath Area – VCT Flooring
· Living Room, Dining Room, and Bedrooms - Carpet
Project Amenities
· Community Building
· Laundry Room with 2 washers and 2 dryers
· Exercise Room with exercise equipment
· Picnic area · Playground
· Library
· Management Office in Community Building
· Computer Center
Design Features
· Two-story townhome
· Four handicap one-story flats
· Pitched Roofs
· Brick and vinyl exterior
· Private entry
Utility Detail
Heat: Electric Forced Air: Tenant paid
Air Conditioning: Central/HVAC: Tenant paid
Hot Water: Electric: Tenant paid
Cooking: Electric: Tenant paid
Cold Water/Sewer: City of Albany Tenant paid
Electricity: Georgia Power Tenant paid
Trash City of Albany Landlord paid
Pest Control Landlord paid
Parking: A total of 114 parking spaces will be available for the 55 units, including 4 handicap spaces. The average number of vehicles per household in the market area is 1.5. Therefore, this parking ratio is considered reasonable.
Sponsor’s Pro-Forma Rents
Sponsor’s Pro-Forma RentsSet Aside / Type / S.F. / #
Units / Gross
Rent / Utility
Allowance* / Net
Rent
30%
30%
50%
60%
30%
50%
60% / 2 BR
2 BR
2 BR
2 BR
3 BR
3 BR
3 BR / 1,103
1,248
1,248
1,248
1,225
1,591
1,591 / 2
2
9
22
2
5
13 / $325
$325
$531
$546
$376
$616
$631 / $136
$136
$136
$136
$166
$166
$166 / $189
$189
$395
$410
$210
$450
$465
*Source: Georgia DCA Utility Allowances, effective 12/1/2006
Reasonability of Sponsor’s Projected Rents
Projected rents are below the maximum permitted at the 30% and 50% thresholds, and well below the maximum permitted at the 60% threshold. Direct competition and tenant support for the subject is in the three market rate, ten LIHTC, and one Section 8 properties surveyed. The subject should compete very well in the market based on price, location, modern design and amenities offered. Considering the lack of development activity in the market and the demand for housing that presently exists, it is our opinion that the subject development should be well received by the rental market. Most of the complexes in the immediate area are virtually 100% occupied with waiting lists.
A lease-up rate of 9 units per month is considered very reasonable. The overall occupancy at the surveyed subsidized complexes is 99% with most reporting waiting lists. With a strong pre-leasing program prior to construction completion, the subject property should be 90% pre-leased prior to construction completion, and 100% occupied within six months of construction completion.
Sponsor’s Projected “Achievable” Restricted LIHTC Rents
Maximum Allowable LIHTC RentsUnit Type / # of
Units / GLA / % of HH
Median / Gross Rent/
Month / Mo. Utility
Allowance / Max. Net
Rent/Mo. / Sponsor’s
Proposed
Rent
2 BR/2 BA
2 BR/2.5 BA
2 BR/2.5 BA
2 BR/2.5 BA
3 BR/2 BA
3 BR/2.5 BA
3 BR / 2.5 BA / 2
2
9
22
2
5
13 / 1,103
1,248
1,248
1,248
1,225
1,591
1,591 / 30%
30%
50%
60%
30%
50%
60% / $326
$326
$542
$651
$376
$627
$753 / $136
$136
$136
$136
$166
$166
$166 / $190
$190
$406
$515
$210
$461
$587 / $189
$189
$395
$410
$210
$450
$465
Total Avg. / 55
Overall Average Projected LIHTC Rent/Unit: / $379
Maximum (Net) Permitted LIHTC Rent: / $475
Difference from Maximum LIHTC Rents: / -$96
Maximum Allowable LIHTC Net Rents (’07), HUD / DCA Fair Market Rent (’07),