Instructions for Contributors
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ENCYCLOPEDIA OF QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS AND ASSESSMENT INSTRUCTIONS FOR CONTRIBUTORS
INSTRUCTIONS FOR CONTRIBUTORS
Editors-in-Chief
Professor Brian Everitt Professor Ed Melnick
23 Hitherwood Drive Professor of Statistics London SE19 1XA New York University UK 44 West 4th Street, Suite 8-56 New York, NY 10012-0258 Email: USA [email protected] Email: [email protected] Phone: +1 (212)998-0444 Fax: +1 (212)995-4003 1. ENCYCLOPEDIA OVERVIEW...... 2
2. SUBMISSION OF MANUSCRIPTS...... 3
2.1 PRESENTATION...... 3 2.2 PREPARATION OF THE ELECTRONIC MANUSCRIPT...... 4 2.3 INITIAL SUBMISSION OF MANUSCRIPTS...... 4 2.4 FINAL SUBMISSION OF MANUSCRIPTS...... 4
3. DUE DATE...... 5
4. UNIQUE ARTICLE NUMBERS (UNIQUE ID)...... 5
5. STRUCTURE OF ARTICLES...... 5
5.1 ARTICLE TITLE...... 5 5.2 CONTRIBUTOR NAME...... 6 5.3 AFFILIATION...... 6 5.4 KEYWORDS...... 6 5.5 ABSTRACT...... 6 5.6 MAIN TEXT...... 6 5.7 BIBLIOGRAPHIC REFERENCES...... 7 5.8. TABLES AND CAPTIONS...... 8 5.9 FIGURES AND CAPTIONS...... 8
6. CROSS REFERENCES TO OTHER ARTICLES...... 9
7. COPYRIGHT, TRADEMARK AND PERMISSIONS...... 10
7. THE PRODUCTION PROCESS...... 11
7.1 COPYEDITING...... 11 7.2 PROOFREADING...... 11
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
All manuscript submissions should be sent to the Project Editor.
Correspondence relating to manuscript preparation, proofs and other related matters should be addressed to the Project Editor or the Publishing Assistant. Correspondence relating to technical content of articles should be addressed to the relevant Section Editor or Editor-in-Chief.
RISK Project Editor RISK Publishing Assistant
Jill Hawthorne Publishing Assistant Project Editor, Major Reference Works Major Reference Works John Wiley & Sons Ltd John Wiley & Sons Ltd The Atrium The Atrium Southern Gate Southern Gate Chichester Chichester PO19 8SQ PO19 8SQ UK UK
2 Tel: 01243 770101 Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]
3 1. ENCYCLOPEDIA OVERVIEW
Quantitative risk assessment is a growing, important component of the larger field of risk assessment, which is of major concern in all areas of science. The need to understand the risks of an activity, be it economic, environmental, public health/biomedical, or even based on terrorist or other hazardous impacts, has led to a number of methods of analysis for many different application scenarios. Indeed, all major areas of the larger endeavour -- hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization -- rely on and benefit from quantitative operations. In fact, all risk assessment is probabilistic, since it pertains to unrealized future events. Within these contexts, enhanced understanding of both the variability and the uncertainty must be quantified in the risk identification process for proper implementation of appropriate statistical methodologies.
Risk analysis is a cross-cutting topic---it affects, for example, engineering, medicine, finance theory, public policy, and the military. But whatever the area the core ideas behind risk assessment and risk management are essentially always the same; a description of the outcome states, a discussion of the uncertainties of the process, an understanding of the process that generated the available data, the formulation of a loss function, and the costs of different actions and inactions. But there remain enormous challenges in validation the recommendations and tailoring the theory to the practice.
Many disciplines have met THESE challenges in different ways, often introducing their idiosyncratic language and reinventing existing methodologies. It is the intent of this Encyclopedia to provide a central source for the assessment and management of risk so that researchers can benefit from the work of colleagues in other areas. Some strategies have built explicitly upon the large body of statistical work subsumed in probabilistic risk assessment. Other strategies have been developed to be robust to specific kinds of uncertainty, or which handle adversarial situations, or which deal with dynamically changing action spaces (i.e., situations in which the available actions change randomly over time, and relevant information accumulates; e.g., marriage opportunities for single people change over time, as do their criteria for a spouse). This kind of diverse innovation has broadened risk analysis beyond the traditional mathematical formulations.
The aim of the proposed encyclopedia is to draw together these varied intellectual threads in the hope that risk analysts in one area can gain from the experience and expertise of those in other disciplines. Corporate risk assessment, for example, may learn from military solutions; the work on monitoring for adverse health events might help to inform the early detection of unsafe automobiles. And portfolio management is very likely to be relevant to public policy investments. The statistical theory that underpins risk management will be enriched by bringing together the special features of particular areas.
The sections, and their Section Editors, are listed below.
Risk Management Professor Tony Cox Cox Associates, Inc. USA Email: [email protected]
Financial/Credit Risk Professor Ngai Hang Chan Chinese University of Hong Kong, China Email: [email protected]
Computer Security Mr O. Sami Saydjari Cyber Defense Agency Headquarters, USA Email: [email protected]
Reliability - Mathematical and Statistical methods Professor Frank Coolen Durham University, UK Email: [email protected]
4 Reliability - Management Science Professor Lesley Walls University of Strathclyde, UK Email: [email protected]
Bayesian/Decision Theory Professor Simon French The University of Manchester, UK Email: [email protected]
Environmental Risk Dr. Walter Piegorsch University of South Carolina, USA Email: [email protected]
Clinical Risk Dr Susan Sereika University of Pittsburgh, USA Email: [email protected]
Public Health/Epidemiology of Risk Dr. Susan Sereika University of Pittsburgh, USA Email: [email protected]
Toxic Substances/Chemical Risk Dr. Dennis Paustenbach and Dr. Jennifer Roberts, ChemRisk Consultancy, USA Email: [email protected], [email protected]
Insurance/Actuarial Risk Dr. Michel Denuit Université Catholique de Louvain, France Email: [email protected]
Homeland Security Professor Ed Melnick New York University, USA Email: [email protected]
The Encylcopedia will be divided into 4 volumes, each volume will comprise approximately 600 pages, with typically around 150-200 articles per volume. We are aiming to publish the work (all volumes simultaneously) in spring 2008. Online publication will also be considered.
Please take care to make your writing style as clear as possible. In particular, try to avoid excessive use of acronyms in the text (this hampers the less-knowledgeable reader); overuse of the passive voice (this makes for rather dull reading; use of the active voice by ‘we...’ or ‘one...’ can make for more lively reading); and long, complicated sentences with several clauses (short declarative sentences can often convey ideas more clearly).
2. SUBMISSION OF MANUSCRIPTS
5 2.1 Presentation
Manuscripts should be typed (in at least 12 point size) on one side of paper (A4 or 8.5" x 11” size) with double spacing between all lines of text, tables, figure captions, and references. There should be reasonable margins (at least 2.5 cm) at the top, bottom, and left- and right-hand sides. All pages should be numbered consecutively in the top right-hand corner; this includes pages containing references, tables, figure captions and figures, which should be grouped in that order after the text pages.
There will be approximately 650 words (or the equivalent in tabular or illustrative material) on the final printed page. An average double-spaced manuscript page, in 12-point Times Roman font, typically contains about 250 words. Thus, one printed page equates to approximately 2 1/2 double-spaced A4 manuscript pages.
The Encyclopedia will contain articles which vary in length. Please refer to your Contributor Agreement Clause 2.1 for the contracted length of your article.
2.2 Preparation of the electronic manuscript
If you are preparing your material on a PC, Macintosh or workstation, then please use a standard word processing program, preferably Word or Word Perfect. Alternatively, you may use TeX or LaTex. Please do not use layout programs such as Quark Xpress, FrameMaker or PageMaker.
If you prepare your manuscript in TeX or LaTeX, it is vital that you submit the PDF of your article, along with source, font and class files, and any other associated macros and files.
2.3 Initial submission of manuscripts
Please send your complete manuscript directly to [email protected] by electronic attachment by the contracted due date (refer to Clause 2.2 of your Contributor Agreement) and in accordance with the terms and conditions of your Contributor Agreement. After acknowledgement of receipt of your contribution, it will be passed to the relevant Section Editor for review. The Editors-in-Chief will also have the opportunity to comment on your manuscript at this stage.
Comments on the initial submission following review will subsequently be sent to the you by your Section Editor for consideration and incorporation, prior to delivery of the final manuscript.
2.4 Final submission of manuscripts
Following inclusion of any requested changes/amendments into the manuscript, as requested by the Section Editor and/or the Editor-in-Chief, please send a final electronic copy of your manuscript, including illustrations, to your Section Editor within four weeks of receipt of the review. It is important that all relevant files are included, particularly all source files if you are using LaTeX or TeX.
It is important that all the necessary copyright permissions paperwork (see Section 6 below) are also supplied to the Project Editor at this time.
Upon acceptance by the Publisher and the Editor-in-Chief, the manuscript will be prepared for the production process (see Section 7 below). For safety reasons you should keep a backup of the electronic version of your contribution.
In order to assist the Publisher with the preparation of your manuscript, we would be grateful if you could include the following information on your manuscript: 6 1. Your full name 2. Your full contact address 3. Your full telephone and fax numbers 4. Your e-mail address 5. A list of those elements comprising your manuscript (see Section 5 below) 6. The filename of your text file and the name of the application you used to create it 7. The filenames of your figure files
If there are multiple Contributors to your article, you must also indicate which Contributor is to be regarded as the 'Corresponding Contributor', and supply full contact details for the Corresponding Contributor.
For your convenience, we have supplied a checklist (RISK_checklist.doc) for you to use to ensure you have supplied the necessary information.
Any changes of address, telephone number, fax number and/or e-mail address, whether temporary or permanent, should be notified to the Project Editor as soon as they are known, giving dates when they become effective and, if appropriate, cease to be effective.
3. DUE DATE
Contributors must adhere to the due date specified in their contracts for the initial submission of their manuscript to the Project Editor. Contributors who are unable to meet the due date should inform the Project Editor at the earliest opportunity. Please note that the Publisher is under no obligation to accept manuscripts submitted after the due date.
4. UNIQUE ARTICLE NUMBERS (UNIQUE ID)
The Publisher will assign to your article a unique identifying number. Once you have received your unique id, it should be quoted in all correspondence with John Wiley & Sons Ltd and the Project Management company (see Section 7 below) assigned to manage this project on behalf of Wiley.
5. STRUCTURE OF ARTICLES
Your article will contain the majority of the following elements:
1. Article title compulsory 2. Contributor name(s) compulsory 3. Basic contributor affiliation(s) compulsory 4. Keywords compulsory 5. Abstract compulsory 6. Introduction optional 7. Main text compulsory 8. Acknowledgments optional 9. References compulsory 10. Tables and captions optional 11. Figure captions optional (each figure must have a caption) 12. Figures optional For the purpose of this list, the term ‘Main text’ includes mathematical equations.
The elements of your article should be submitted in this order. Elements 1 through 11 can be contained in one text file. Each figure must be contained in a separate file (see Section 5.9 for details).
7 Please include in your article manifest all those elements which you have supplied in your manuscript. Please include on this list any other items not given above (for example, you may want to include an appendix at the end of your article).
5.1 Article Title
This should be the title specified in the Contributor’s Agreement. Any material changes to this title, during the writing and review phases, must be approved in writing by the Publisher.
The Publisher reserves the right to amend the title of an article in order to ensure consistency across the Encyclopedia. Once an article enters the production process (i.e. has been transmitted in its final form to the Publisher) its title cannot be amended and any changes to the title made at proof stage will be ignored by the proofreader and typesetter.
5.2 Contributor Name
Please include your name, and the names of all other contributors to your article, beneath the title of the article. You should include your first name, middle initial and family name.
5.3 Affiliation
Beneath your name, you should include your basic affiliation and the affiliations of all other co- contributors.
Your affiliation should take the form:
University/Organisation Town/City US state abbreviation/spelled-out Canadian or Australian state (if applicable) Country
5.4 Keywords
Please supply a list of approximately 5-10 keywords for your article. These will not appear in the print version but will be incorporated in any electronic version of the article for use in online searches.
5.5 Abstract
You should include a short abstract (approximately 200 words) for your article. The abstract will not be displayed in print but will be made available free of charge in any online edition of the work.
As the abstract will be made available independently of the main article, it must contain no direct cross-references to elements contained in the rest of the article. For example you should not include in the abstract cross-references to figures, tables, etc which appear only in the main body of the article. Similarly, you must not include within the abstract citations to references.
5.6 Main Text
8 Below is a summary of how to handle each of the main features which are likely to appear in the main body of your article.
i. Mathematical equations
These should be numbered consecutively using Arabic numerals enclosed in parentheses, written to the right of the equation, i.e.
x + y = 5 (5)
Each equation should be cited in the text using the form:
…equation (5) describes… or Equation (5) describes but not …eqn (5) describes…
Each equation should be placed in the appropriate position within the text. Please use Word Equation Editor or MathType wherever possible. The mathematical nomenclature used in a journal such as Journal of the American Statistical Association is a useful guide to the nomenclature to use in the encyclopedia.
ii. Level of headings
An article can be divided into sections, sub-sections and further sub-divisions through the provision of three levels of headings. These should be of the following form:-
Level 1 – CAPITALS and EMBOLDENED Level 2 – Lower case and emboldened Level 3 – Lower case italic
iii. Spelling
You should prepare your manuscript following American spelling and usage. Our preferred dictionary for this work is Webster's Dictionary.
iv. Symbols and Units
It is important to distinguish between the letter "oh" and "zero", between the letter "ell" and "one", between the letter "kay" and "kappa", between the letter "vee" and "nu", etc.
SI units should be used throughout. Negative superscripts (i.e. kJ mol–1) NOT the solidus (i.e. kJ/mol) should be used. For example: cubic decimetre per mole-second is dm3 mol–1 s–1
v. Abbreviations and Acronyms
Whenever you first use an abbreviation or an acronym, you must define it in full. The Publisher will automatically generate a Encyclopedia-wide list of abbreviations and acronyms which will appear in the work.
9 5.7 Bibliographic references
References should be cited by numbers within square brackets and listed at the end of your manuscript in the order in which they appear in the text. All references must be complete and accurate and should be listed in the following style:
Lovell, D. P. & Thomas, G. (1996). Quantitative risk assessment and the limitations of the linearized multistage model, Human and Experimental Toxicity 15, 87–104
Seal, H. L. (1988). "Risk theory", in Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences, Vol. 8, S. Kotz & N. L. Johnson, eds. Wiley, New York, pp.152–156.
International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) (1982). IARC Monographs on the Evaluation of the Carcinogenic Risk of Chemicals to Humans, Supplement 4, Chemicals, Industrial Processes and Industries Associated with Cancer in Humans. IARC Monographs, Vols.1–29. International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon
Royal Society (1992). Risk: Analysis, Perception and Management. Report of a Royal Society Study Group. Royal Society, London.
References to dissertations, theses and any other personal communications should not be included as they are often impossible to source. "In press" references should be limited to material that has definitely been accepted for publication and is in production; such references must contain at least the title of the journal in which the article is to appear. References whose status is ‘submitted’ but which don’t include titles of journals will be deleted.
5.8. Tables and captions
Tables should be numbered consecutively with Arabic numerals and grouped at the end of the manuscript.
Each table should have a caption and individual column headings. Any units for columns should be in parentheses after the column heading. Footnotes to tables should be designated by superscript lower- case letters. All tables must be cited in the text and flagged, i.e.