Short-Term Statistics in Poland

Short-term statistics in Poland

Introduction

Short term statistics (STS), part of the economic statistics system, are particularly important in a non-stable economy as well as during the periods of economic transformations; they are indispensable to the implementation of economic policy. Owing to their operative nature, i.e. monthly or quarterly survey, short preparation time, limited data, and the required estimates, a comparable analysis of such statistics against the results of comprehensive yearly statistics is necessary.

STS have a long tradition in Poland; however domestic methodology has been used which in the majority of cases coincides with the assumptions adopted by the EU. A fundamental discrepancy lies in adopting different units of observation for short-term statistics in industry and construction than those prescribed by the Council Regulation (EC) No. 1165/98. Under the said Regulation, KAU (Kind of Activity Unit) should be subject of the survey; moreover, the said Regulation imposes the obligation to compile statistics regarding new orders in industry (in construction, such surveys have been compiled since 2001).

Classification system

The harmonization of statistical systems is based on coherent classifications and nomenclatures. As early as in January 1993, Poland introduced NACE based on NACE Rev.1. In 1994, PCN (Polish Combined Nomenclature of Foreign Trade) based on CN was introduced in Poland. The implementation works relating to the classification of products lasted longer; however, finally PKWiU (Polish Classification of Products and Services) based on CPA and PRODCOM (the PRODPOL list), has been binding since 2000. In construction, the year 2000 marked the introduction of the Polish Classification of Types of Construction based on CC.

Scope and sources of data

In accordance with NACE Rev.1, short term statistics cover: - industry defined as a sum total of section C (mining and quarrying), section D (manufacturing) and section E (electricity, gas and water supply), - construction- section F, - trade and repairs – section G, - transport, storage and communication - section I, - other services –remaining sections.

For reporting purposes, all business entities have been divided into three groups based on the number of the employed persons, i.e.: - more than 49 employees - large units, - between 10 and 49 employees – medium-sized units, - up to 9 employees – small units. All large units and approx. 10% of the sample of medium sized units are obligated (in accordance with the Public Statistics Act dated 1995) to prepare monthly reports focusing on basic data regarding their business operations. Such monthly business activity report provides information about production, turnover, number of employed persons, average employment, wages and salaries etc.

Therefore STS concern large and medium sized enterprises excluding trade activities; in order for these activities to be representative, monthly reports have been mandatory since 2000 for the sample of small units as well. The statistics regarding small entities, in the whole economy, are compiled on a yearly basis using a sample method.

Industry

Owing to its importance in the economy, industry is closely observed and the results of individual branches of industry are analysed. From among numerous indices showing general condition of the Polish economy and the direction of changes - sold production illustrates the scale of changes in industry from a global perspective. This index shows the level and dynamics of finished goods and products accepted by domestic or foreign customers.

Owing to mutual and frequently close relations of various branches of industry (final products within one branch constitute supplies within another branch), sold production is a vital source of information about the production’s development potential or set back of production in certain branches in the near future. Industrial goods production is a source additional detailed information regarding the scale of the production development of concrete groups of goods.

Monthly industrial production surveys focus on:

1. sold production of industry – figures as well as dynamic, structural and regional distribution,

2. industrial goods production – natural units of measure and physical production volumes index.

Re.1. Definition

Sold production of industry is defined as revenue from the sales of own products (goods, works and services) and the value of manufactured products not included in the sales but treated as the equivalent of sales, i.e. the value of own goods transferred to own retail sales outlets and own catering establishments as well as own warehouses, the value of benefits rendered to the social benefits fund, own goods and services for own investment purposes, goods and services transferred for advertising and promotional purposes free of charge, goods and products provided for the tax payer’s and the staff’s personal needs as well as donation of goods and services rendered without a fee.

2 Combining the revenues from the sales of products (the so-called external sales) with the value of the manufactured products being the equivalent of sales (the so-called internal sales) for the purpose of disclosing them as "sold production" stems from the fact that a production measure is required which would most fully reflect the effects of industrial units production.

The value of sold production expressed as a basic price category, is observed. Basic price is defined as an amount paid by the buyer to the producer for a production unit (goods/service) less VAT and excise tax and increased by subsidies received for goods and services. This is an advantageous solution contents-wise as it eradicates the impact of changes in the rates of the excise tax on the level and dynamics of sold production. Such method of the valuation of sold production of industry stems from the national accounts system according to the SNA/ESA rules.

Data expressed as current prices fail to illustrate the scale of the phenomenon (the production development, stagnation or regress) properly. Figures are converted into comparable constant prices based on the indices of producer’s prices (Paasche’s formula). The system of constant prices is changed every five years. Currently, i.e. since the beginning of 2002, the average 2000 prices have been adopted. Industrial production dynamics indices are calculated based on various assessment bases.

Methods of estimation

Based on the surveys of the sample of medium-sized units, labour productivity is calculated based on sold production per employee, and data are generalised for the whole collective body at the level of the PKD division.

Seasonal adjustments

Sold production dynamics indices are adjusted seasonally using the TRAMO-SEATS procedure.

Data availability

By the 5th business day of the following month, reporting units prepare a monthly report regarding business activities in the previous month using DG-1 form and disclose data for the reporting month and on a accrued basis since the beginning of the year.

Data are presented by the whole country and by voivodeship and are published 20 days after the end of the reporting month.

Re.2.

Goods production surveys are compiled in monthly and yearly cycles. The scope and the number of the products and entities differ in the case of monthly and yearly statistics. Since 2000 the surveys have been compiled in accordance with the PKWiU classification based on CPA and PRODCOM.

3 The 2000 yearly surveys covered 4,240 products (including 1,600 products from the PRODCOM list), whereas the 2001 statistics – 4,800 goods (including 2,500 products featured on the PRODCOM list).

In 2000 monthly surveys covered approximately 1,800 goods, in 2001 – ca. 1,900, in 2002 – 2,230 goods.

Monthly statistics focus on the most significant products of domestic economy manufactured by business units employing at least 50 persons (both in industrial and non-industrial sections).

The indices of physical volumes of production are calculated based on the results of the above-mentioned surveys. Yearly indices are calculated using the Laspeyres’s and Paasche’s formulae; only the Laspeyres’s index is calculated monthly. Indices are calculated based on value added and sold production.

The indices of physical production volumes are basically treated as an extra tool for the evaluation of the changes in the level of industrial production. The quality of the calculated indices however is not reliable yet owing to both the selection of goods and a very short period over which the new classification has been binding (the tax system is going to use the previous SWW classification until the end of 2002).

Construction

STS in construction covers:

- the sales of construction and assembly production performed in Poland by construction enterprises employing at least 10 persons, by investment construction works and other works such as repairs, conservation, demolition and tidying - in monthly cycles; regarding the selected types of construction objects in accordance with the CC classification – quarterly data.

- the number of dwellings whose construction has been commenced as well as the number and usable floor space (in square metres) of completed dwellings: in new and extended residential buildings, non-residential buildings and following the adaptation of non-residential premises – total data in monthly cycles; in quarterly cycles – by types of buildings (residential, non- residential),

- the value of new orders, by buildings and civil engineering objects – quarterly data,

- the sales of construction and assembly production performed as part of tenders – quarterly data,

- construction permits – monthly reports and quarterly reporting; data regarding the number of dwellings (through the construction or extension of residential buildings and other buildings as well as through the extension of non-residential premises) for the construction of which construction permits have been granted; the quarterly data deal with the construction permits issued to build new residential buildings and other buildings as well as

4 permits to extend residential buildings and to redevelop non-residential premises to convert them into dwellings and to construct building objects other than buildings.

Quarterly statistics help provide the information about usable floor space (in square metres) of dwellings, the cubic capacity of non-residential buildings and the number of civil engineering objects to be constructed as part of the permits issued.

Methods of estimation

Based on the results of the surveys of the sample of medium-sized entrepreneurs, labour productivity is calculated based on production per employee, and data are generalised for the whole collective body at the level of PKD groups.

Seasonal adjustments

Construction and assembly production dynamics indices are adjusted seasonally using the TRAMO-SEATS procedure.

Data availability

Data are presented by the whole country and by voivodeship and are published 20 days after the end of the reporting month.

Additionally yearly surveys help obtain the following information on:

- the sales of construction and assembly production performed by all construction entities according to the place (voivodeship) where such works have been performed,

- construction and assembly production performed by non-construction enterprises,

- construction and assembly production performed in national economy, by construction objects and systems (contract system and own-account system),

- the sales of construction and assembly performed abroad by countries - places where works are carried out,

- orders to demolish construction objects.

5 Uniform variables – regardless of the type of activity (industry, construction, trade, other services):

- revenues from sales (turnover) - quarterly data,

- number of employees - monthly data,

- average employment - monthly data.