Project Title: ENSEMBLE-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and Their Impacts

Project no. GOCE-CT-2003-505539

Project acronym: ENSEMBLES

Project title: ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts

Instrument: Integrated Project

Thematic Priority: Global Change and Ecosystems

D1.1 Progress report on the construction and testing of Earth system models

Due date of deliverable: August 2005 Actual submission date: September 2005

Start date of project: 1 September 2004 Duration: 60 Months

Max Planck Institut für Meteorologie (MPIMET)

Revision [25.09.2005]

Project co-funded by the European Commission within the Sixth Framework Programme (2002-2006)

Dissemination Level PU Public  PP Restricted to other programme participants (including the Commission Services) RE Restricted to a group specified by the consortium (including the Commission Services) CO Confidential, only for members of the Consortium (including the Commission Services) D1.1: Progress report on the construction and testing of Earth system models

Authors: Marco Giorgetta, Shuting Yang, Tim Johns, Jason Lowe, Elisa Manzini, Pier Giuseppe Fogli, Pierre Friedlingstein, Christophe Genthon, Olivier Marti

The partners [CNRS(IPSL/LGGE), DMI, INGV, METO-HC, and MPIMET] in WP1.1 have made progress in the construction and testing of new Earth system models (Task1.1.1) and AOGCMs (Task 1.1.2). The ongoing works make use of models, e.g. for the atmosphere or ocean dynamics and physics, which were mostly available at the beginning of this reporting phase. Table 1 gives an overview of these models. Earth system models including various additional processes have been assembled and tested over the last 12 months as described below by each partner. Table 2 and Table 3 give an overview of the coupled model systems for the model ensemble system and the perturbed parameter ensemble system, respectively. The continuation of these works will produce a set of tested model systems in month 24 (Major Milestone 1.1).

CNRS:IPSL/LGGE (Pierre Friedlingstein, Christophe Genthon, Olivier Marti) The new climate / carbon cycle model, coupling the OPA ocean model, the LIM sea- ice model, the LMDZ atmosphere model, the full ORCHIDEE soil/vegetation model (including carbon component) and PISCES for ocean biogeochemistry, has been assembled. The generic and public version of the VOC (volatile organic compounds) in ORCHIDEE is developed, and will be coupled to the atmospheric chemistry model. For coupling IPSL climate model with the LGGE ice sheet model, OASIS 3 has been chosen as coupler. Necessary adaptations in the climate and ice sheet models towards coupling were implemented. Tests of coupling patterns between models are ongoing. This concerns data and working code for exchange between the ice sheet and the ocean models.

DMI (Shuting Yang) At the beginning of the first year of ENSEMBLES a preliminary version of the atmospheric component of Danish climate model (DKCM) was under development. This preliminary version of the DKCM was constructed by combining the dynamical core of the ARPEGE climate version 3 and the physical parameterization package from a preliminary version of ECHAM5 (i.e., ECHAM5 v5.1). The preliminary version of atmospheric DKCM has been upgraded using the ARPEGE climate version 4 dynamical core and the physical package of a formally released version of ECHAM5 (v5.2). The model runs about 8 times as fast as the ECHAM5, implying a great potential for applications of high resolution simulations. The model is tested and its performance is compared with the ARPEGE and ECHAM5 as well as with the reanalysis data of ERA40. It is shown that the model simulates the climatology reasonably well with systematic errors that are generally comparable with those in ARPEGE and ECHAM5. INGV (Elisa Manzini, Pier Giuseppe Fogli) The climate model existing at INGV the beginning of the project was the so-called SINTEX model (Gualdi et al., 2003), consisting of the ECHAM4.6 (atmosphere) model coupled to the OPA8.2 (ocean) model, the latter including the LIM sea-ice module (Timmermann et al., 2005).The experience established for the construction of the SINTEX model as well as the existence of the ECHAM5 model (Roeckner et al., 2003), the OASIS 3 coupler (Valcke et al., 2004), and the OPA8.2 model (Madec et al., 1998) within the PRISM infrastructure have been crucial for establishing the base framework for the upgrading of the physical core of the new Earth System model. The existence of the regional version of the Modular Marine Ecosystem (MME) model (Vichi et al., 2003) has provided the basis for the simulation of the biogeophysical processes in the ocean. Ongoing independent work based on the coupling of ECHAM4.6 and a terrestrial vegetation module will provide experience for the final objective to construct an Earth System Model aimed at the closure of the carbon cycle. The new physical core of the Earth System Model has been assembled during the first year of the project. The technical testing is reaching the final stages. The sensitivity of the new coupled system to cloud parameters has been documented. Tests of the advection of the sea-ice over the Arctic Ocean are in progress. For compactness, this new physical core has been named the EOL model. The implementation of the coupling of the global version of the Modular Marine Ecosystem (MME) model within the ocean component of the EOL model has also been completed. First test simulations have demonstrated that the coupling is technically robust. A comparison of the EOL+MME model with a model system where the atmospheric coupling has been substituted with forcing from reanalysis is in progress. Being the planned objective to construct an ESM focused on simulation of the carbon cycle, the task for the next months will be to assemble a land vegetation module into the EOL+MME model and to test the simulation of the carbon cycle for the present day climate conditions. The current plan is to implement the VEGAS (VEgetation Global Atmosphere and Soil) model, developed by Zeng et al., (2005). Having a relatively small number of plant functional types, the VEGAS model is better suited for long simulations, as those that are planned to be done within the project.

METO-HC (Tim Johns, Jason Lowe) The development of HadGEM1 was completed and several standard simulations carried out and assessed, including a multi-century constant pre-industrial forcings control run, transient experiments with a 1%-per-year increase in CO2, and “slab- ocean” experiments to quantify climate sensitivity and feedbacks. Two technical papers (Johns et al. 2004; Martin et al, 2004) were written documenting the scientific formulation of HadGEM1 and its performance in comparison to HadCM3 in simulating present-day climate and climate change. Overall, HadGEM1 outperforms HadCM3 based on evaluation of a weighted set of variables forming a “Climate Prediction Index” (CPI, Figure 1). Several scientific papers (Johns et al. 2005; Martin et al. 2005; Ringer et al. 2005; McLaren et al. 2005) have now been written to provide the necessary documentary references for HadGEM1 and its performance in the open literature as required for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. HadGEM1 (alongside HadCM3) is thus a fully operational and well-documented model, with a growing set of simulations available to contribute to the ENSEMBLES Stream 1. Projects to improve the physical and aerosol components of HadGEM1, in particular to characterise and improve its tropical performance including ENSO, and to implement additional Earth System components in HadGEM, are underway. These should provide a better basis for the future Stream 2 simulations.

In Tasks 1.1c HadCM3 and its slab version HadSM3 have been used extensively via parameter-based perturbations to explore uncertainty in climate sensitivity, results having been published in the open literature (e.g. Murphy et al. 2004). This work informs and provides a framework for applying similar techniques using HadGEM1 (and other models) in future, subject to the availability of computing resources.

Figure 1. Comparison of a non-dimensional index of model skill compared with observed climatological fields between HadCM3 (red bars) and HadGEM1 (blue bars). RMS errors are normalised by the spatial average of internal climate variability estimated from HadCM3’s control run. The index is similar to the CPI defined and used by Murphy et al. (2004) but contains more variables including some oceanic and sea ice ones. Model data compared are 20-year averages from the control simulations.

MPIMET (Marco A. Giorgetta) At the beginning of the first year of ENSEMBLES the components listed in Appendix 1.6 were available and had been tested by themselves. Also the physical climate model, i.e. the atmosphere ocean circulation model coupled by the PRISM/OASIS coupler was tested, and climate simulations for IPCC-AR4 had started. The physical climate model was used as a base for the development of two specific Earth system model configurations: the aerosol system model and the carbon cycle model (Figure 2, Table 2). Figure 2. The aerosol system model (left) and the carbon cycle system (right) of MPIMET

The aerosol system model includes the HAM model that computes 7 aerosol modes and various sources and sinks. Sulphate aerosols depend on DMS fluxes from the ocean, as simulated in the marine biogeochemistry model HAMOCC. Anthropogenic emissions of SO2, black carbon and organic carbon are prescribed. The simulated plankton depends on dust input from the atmosphere. The carbon cycle model includes the JSBACH modules for land surface and vegetation processes, as for example stomatal conductance for H2O and CO2 fluxes, leaf area, or carbon storage in foliage, stems and in the soil. CO2 is transported in the atmosphere where it is coupled to the atmosphere. The marine biogeochemistry model HAMOCC includes the marine part of the carbon cycle. The positive test results allowed employing the aerosol and carbon cycle system models for IPCC AR4 simulations through the 20th century to the end of the 21st century following the A1B climate simulations. The carbon cycle model was used at the same T63 L31 resolution as the physical system model. The aerosol system model was employed at reduced T63 L19 resolution because of high computational costs. Results of these simulations are evaluated and presented in RT2A.

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CNRS: IPSL/LGGE Component Processes Model References Atmosphere Dynamics+physics LMDZ4 Hourdin et al. 2005 Chemistry+aerosols INCA Ocean Dynamics + physics OPA Madec et al. 1998, + Sea ice Aumont et al., 2003 Marine biogeochem. Land Surface processes ORCHIDEE/SECHIBA Krinner et al. 2004 River transport Carbon cycle ORCHIDEE/STOMATE Coupler OASIS 2.4 Valcke et al., 2004

DMI Component Processes Model References Atmosphere IFS/ARPEGE DKCM Shuting Yang, 2004 dynamics + ECHAM5 physics

INGV Component Processes Model References Atmosphere Dynamics + physics ECHAM5 Roeckner et al., 2003 Ocean Dynamics + physics OPA8.2 Madec et al., 1998 Sea ice LIM Timmermann et al., 2005 Marine biogeochem. MME Vichi et al., 2003 Land Coupler OASIS3/PRISM Valcke et al., 2004

METO-HC Component Processes Model References Atmosphere Dynamics + physics HadCM3 Pope et al. 2000; Gordon et al. 2000 Aerosols (HadCM4 schemes) Jones et al. 2001 Dynamics + physics HadGAM1 N96L38 Martin et al., 2005, Ringer Aerosols (HadGAM1 schemes) et al., 2005 Chemistry+aerosols UKCA (Under development) Ocean Dynamics + physics HadGOM1 1.0deg Johns et al., 2005 + Sea ice L40 McLaren et al., 2005 Marine biogeochem. HadOCC Palmer and Totterdell, 2001

Land Surface processes MOSES-II Cox et al. 1999; Essery et al. 2001 River transport TRIP Oki and Sud, 1998 Vegetation TRIFFID Coupler UM (Unified Model) Johns et al., 1997; Johns et al., 2005 MPIMET Component Processes Model References Atmosphere Dynamics + physics ECHAM5 T63 L31 Roeckner et al., 2003 Aerosols HAM Stier et al., 2004 Chemistry MOZART chem. Horowitz et al., 2003 Ocean Dynamics + physics MPIOM 1.5deg L40 Marsland et al., 2002 Marine biogeochem. HAMOCC Wetzel et al., 2002 Land Hydrology HD Hagemann and Dümenil, Vegetation 2005 JSBACH Coupler OASIS/PRISM

Table 2: Coupled model systems for the model ensemble simulations in ENSEMBLES RT2A, as constructed in the first year. Components are shown for the coupled systems, component models contained in the ESM configurations.

Partner System Components CNRS: Physical system LMDZ4/OPA8/LIM/ORCHIDEE(SECHIBA) IPSL/LGGE Carbon cycle LMDZ4/OPA8/LIM/ORCHIDEE(SECHIBA+STOMATE) system Physical+ice- LMDZ4/OPA8/LIM/ORCHIDEE(SECHIBA)/GRIZZLI sheet DMI n.a. n.a. INGV Physical system ECHAM5/OASIS3/OPA/LIM Carbon cycle ECHAM5/VEGAS/OASIS3/OPA/LIM/MME system METO-HC Physical + HadGEM1 Aerosol system =HadGAM1/MOSES-II/TRIP/HadGOM1/UM HadGEM1a (under development) MPIMET Physical system ECHAM5/HD/OASIS/MPIOM Aerosol system ECHAM5/HAM/HD/OASIS/MPIOM/HAMOCC Carbon cycle ECHAM5/JSBACH/HD/OASIS/MPIOM/HAMOCC system

Table 3: Coupled model systems for the perturbed parameter ensemble simulations in ENSEMBLES RT1

Partner System Components METO-HC Perturbed HadCM3 (pre-existing model) physics / HadCM4 schemes (aerosols) / TRIFFID (terrestrial carbon cycle) / UM