TSUG NEWS TRANSPORT STATISTICS USERS GROUP Issue No. 54: April 2001 Contents Publications Editorial 1 Focus on ports Publications Focus on ports 1 The DETR published last November a new statistical Public Transport Statistics: Great Britain 2000 2 report presenting detailed statistics on trends in UK Bus quality indicators: Q2 2000/01 2 port traffic. The report is a complementary statistical Road goods vehicles for mainland Europe 3 volume to the ports policy paper Modern Ports Traffic in Great Britain: Q4 2000 3 (published at the same time) to provide a picture of Transport trends: 2001 edition 4 the activities and throughput of the ports industry News over the last 35 years. It shows that: Freight Study Group on inland waterways 5 Total freight traffic of ports in Great Britain has Transport Bill receives Royal Assent 5 risen by 71% since 1965, and freight traffic for all £8.4bn local transport boost 5 UK ports has risen by 33% since 1980 Environmental statistics 2000 6 Introduction of 44 tonne lorries 6 The top four UK ports (London, Grimsby & £62 million for rural buses 6 Immingham, Tees & Hartlepool and Forth) are Strategy for modern transport system 7 among the ten largest ports in Northern Europe Excellent start for Local Transport Plans 7 Of the top five ports in 1965, only London, the £7.5 billion rail boost 7 largest in the UK, has retained its ranking. Seminars Liverpool, Milford Haven, Southampton and Airport access statistics 8 Medway have slipped to ninth, seventh, sixth and News of members 14 twelfth place respectively Dates for your diary 16 Crude oil accounted for one fifth of all port traffic Next newsletter 16 in 1965, whereas by 1999 its share had risen to Appendix: DETR statistical publications 16 one third of all port traffic. Sullom Voe, opened in 1978 as a terminal for crude oil piped from Editorial North Sea installations, now accounts for 20% of Despite the late publication of this newsletter, some all crude oil traffic at UK ports material is not yet available, including an account of Coal tonnages have halved since 1965 due to a Statistics for the Undevolved North seminar, the change in the pattern of coal movements. Large organiser of which has been swamped with work for quantities of locally produced coal were clients. He hopes to be able to give me a report on traditionally shipped out from GB ports (59% of this seminar within the next three or four weeks; and all coal handled in 1965), but over 90% of coal I will then issue a Seminar Special edition of the handled at major UK ports in 1999 was imported newsletter (to include also reports on the seminars on The tonnage carried in containers increased by Road safety statistics, Transport and social 81% between 1988 and 1999. Over the same exclusion, and London transport strategy, as this period, Felixstowe strengthened its dominant current newsletter would otherwise be unhealthily position: its share of the numbers of containers swollen). handled by UK ports rose from 34 to 41% Ro-Ro traffic has grown by 51% since 1991 and accounted for 14% of all UK port freight traffic in 1999. Dover is by far the largest Ro-Ro port and, despite competition from the Channel Tunnel, the numbers of road goods vehicles have risen by half 2
since 1993, although passenger numbers have risen 12% since 1994/95 and that in the East and fallen by 14% from their peak in 1997 South East of England has increased by 2 and 9% The report is split into five sections and provides a respectively. However, over the same period statistical and factual background describing the there have been falls in the northern regions trends at ports over the last 35 years, charting some Local bus passenger receipts in Great Britain of the inevitable changes in fortune. The document were at the same level, in real terms, as in the provides more in the way of analysis and previous year, at £2.7 billion, with little real commentary than has previously been produced. change over the last decade except in London, Its main data sources are the annual returns of freight where bus receipts have increased by 23% in real traffic from port authorities and other wharf operators terms from 1965 onwards, but data from other sources are Bus operating costs per vehicle kilometre varied also presented, including passenger returns from ferry greatly from area to area, but in real terms operators and International Passenger Survey data remained the same, overall, as the previous year. from the Office for National Statistics, ship arrivals The rise in bus patronage in Great Britain has led data from Lloyd’s Maritime Information Services to a fall in operating costs per passenger journey Ltd, and fishing statistics from the Ministry of over the last year of 3% in real terms Agriculture, Fisheries and Food. In February 2000, DETR announced a further £100 Focus on Ports is published by The Stationery Office million of Rural Bus Subsidy Grant in England. This (TSO) on the Department’s behalf and is available funding will allow the continuation of the scheme from TSO bookshops and TSO’s accredited agents, until at least March 2004. The local authority grant is price £32. It is intended to publish further editions of for new or improved rural bus services. In 1999/00, Focus on Ports every three years or so. the 1,800 services supported by the grant reported 16 million passenger journeys. Bulletin of Public Transport Statistics: Domestic air travel continued to increase with a 4% Great Britain 2000 rise in passengers carried by UK airlines in 1999. Key figures from this report - published in November These figures, and further details, are obtainable free 2000 - include: of charge from: The number of bus passenger journeys in Great DETR Britain increased by 1% in the year to 31 March Transport Statistics Personal Travel 2000. There were increases of 2% in London and Room 2/17 in the Eastern Region, and a 3% rise in the South 76 Marsham Street East Region. Journeys in the North West and London SW1P 4DR Yorkshire and Humber declined by 4% and 2% respectively Tel. 020 7944 3076 e-mail [email protected] Journeys on London Underground in 1999/00 rose by 7%, to 927 million. Passenger journeys Bus Quality Indicators: Quarter 2, on light rail systems increased by 11%, to 94 million, as the new West Midland Metro and 2000/2001 (July-September 2000) extensions to existing light rail networks in The main findings from the second issue of the bus Greater Manchester and Docklands opened. The passenger satisfaction survey, published in January, existing network has now been supplemented by are: the Croydon Tramlink which opened in May The average satisfaction rating for the bus 2000 journey just completed was 80% in England, 83% Passenger receipts on light rail, urban metro in England outside London and 75% in London (including London Underground) and supertram The highest satisfaction rating both in and outside systems increased in real terms in 1999/00 by 8% London was for on-bus safety and security and Bus patronage in Great Britain has remained behaviour of the bus crew (driver/conductor). For broadly flat since the mid-1990s at around 4.3 England as a whole these two aspects of the bus billion journeys. London’s bus patronage has journey had an average satisfaction rating of 87%. 3
Outside London, journey time and level of quarter of 2000 was 44%, little changed from the crowding on the bus had an average satisfaction previous quarter (43%) rating of 89% Comparing the third quarter of 2000 with the third Satisfaction with bus stop information averaged quarter of 1999, the report shows that: 73% in London, and 61% for England as a whole the total number of vehicles travelling to Europe Satisfaction with bus service reliability averaged rose by 33,000 to 593,600 - an increase of 6% on 67% in London, 65% outside London and 65% the same quarter last year for England as a whole the number of powered vehicles rose by 11%, of The average age of the fleet was 8.6 years at the end which the number of UK vehicles fell by 2% and of September 2000, continuing the downward trend foreign vehicles rose by 18% since 1994 (when it was close to 10 years) and the number of unaccompanied trailers decreased making the fleet the most modern since 1990. by 3% The bus service reliability survey (lost service Some revisions have been made to the figures for the kilometres) found that 2.2% of scheduled local bus first and second quarters of 2000, especially to the mileage in England was lost owing to factors within numbers of unaccompanied trailers. UK-registered an operator’s control. 70% of the lost mileage was and foreign-registered powered vehicles are because of staffing problems. Results for London unaffected but there are some minor revisions to the contrasted with those outside London. In London, numbers of powered vehicles with unknown country over 4.5% of scheduled mileage was lost owing to of registration. factors within an operator’s control, compared with 1.7% outside London. The report is available, free of charge, from Lisa Ayers, Transport Statistics Freight Division, DETR. The above figures, and further details, are obtainable Tel: 0117 987 8484 from: DETR Traffic in Great Britain - 4th Quarter 2000 Transport Statistics Personal Travel Room 2/17 Provisional estimates published in February show 76 Marsham Street that traffic levels rose by only 0.3% between 1999 London SW1P 4DR and 2000; though after adjusting for the effects of the Telephone: 020 7944 4589 fuel protest (traffic levels fell by an estimated 20% in mid-September), it is estimated there would have Road Goods Vehicles Travelling to been a rise of 0.7% between the two years. Mainland Europe - Quarter 3, 2000 These figures and analyses by vehicle type and road class show that: This report, published in February, presents figures on a seasonally adjusted basis to help identify Car traffic levels were little changed between underlying trends, especially changes between 1999 and 2000. Heavy goods vehicle traffic rose successive quarters. The results for the third quarter by 2% over the same period of 2000 show that: Motorway traffic rose by 1% between 1999 and The total number of vehicles travelling to 2000, whilst traffic on other classes of road each mainland Europe fell by 4,200 from 597,800 in fell by 1% over the same period the second quarter of 2000 to 593,600 in the third There was little change in traffic levels between The number of powered vehicles was virtually the fourth quarter of 1999 and the same quarter of unchanged. A small increase in the number of 2000. Any extra traffic resulting from the foreign-registered powered vehicles (from Hatfield rail crash and subsequent disruption to 258,700 to 259,700) was partly offset by a fall of rail traffic has not affected overall traffic levels. 100 in the number of UK-registered powered Similarly, the impact on traffic of bad weather vehicles, to 136,000 and flooding in the fourth quarter was too slight and localised to affect the overall results. The share of all vehicles travelling to Europe, by foreign-registered powered vehicles, in the third 4
This free Statistics Bulletin is available from DETR, Monitoring the 10 Year Plan for transport TSR2, Zone 2/14, Great Minster House, 76 Marsham The Government’s 10 Year Plan for Transport, Street, London, SW1P 4DR (Tel: 020 7944 3095). published in July 2000, sets out a long-term Quarterly road traffic statistics can be viewed at: programme of increased funding for transport, http://www.transtat.detr.gov.uk/qbullets/qtraff.htm totalling £180 billion over 10 years. This article explains how the DETR intends to monitor its Transport Trends: 2001 Edition implementation and progress. The fourth edition of Transport Trends, published in Understanding attitudes to transport policy March, provides readers with an overview of the This article explains the importance of attitude major trends in domestic transport, backed up with surveys to the work of the Department. It outlines detailed statistical analysis. the main surveys used, as well as other more The main trends shown are as follows: qualitative research. Some key results are also presented. Total passenger travel has more than tripled between 1952 and 1999, increasing from 218 The effect of the fuel ‘protest’ on road traffic billion passenger kilometres to 728 billion. The This article describes how road traffic in the third majority of the growth has been in car travel quarter of 2000 was reduced by nearly 2% as a result Bus and coach travel has fallen from being the of the fuel protest, with the result that the estimate of dominant mode, to a 6% share in 1999. Rail total traffic in 2000 is about 0.4% lower than it would travel has remained fairly steady in absolute otherwise have been. The protest appears to have had terms, although its market share has fallen a greater effect on car than on goods vehicle traffic. Trends in freight transport have tended to follow Travel by taxi and minicab trends in the economy. Since 1953 total freight Key statistics in the article are: moved (tonne-kilometres) has increased by 176%. 65% is moved by road There are about 20,000 licensed ‘black cabs’ in London, an increase of about 40% since 1985. In Car traffic accounted for 48% of motor vehicle the rest of England and Wales licensed taxis have traffic in 1950 but by 1999 it was 81% of the doubled in number over this period to over 42,000 total. Light van traffic fell from 15 to 11% over the same period, but was still the second highest The average number of trips by taxi and private category in 1999 hire vehicle made in the late 1990s was three times as high as in the mid-1970s The total licensed vehicle stock in Great Britain at the end of 1999 was estimated to be 28.4 million Motorcycling in Great Britain vehicles, of which about 85% Key statistics in the article are: The price of petrol and oil in 2000 was around The number of motorcycles licensed at the end of 20% higher in real terms than in 1980. However, 1999 was 760,000, 3% of all registered vehicles the real price of all motoring is still below its 1980 level The average length of a motorcycle driver trip in the late 1990s was 9.3 miles, an increase of two- Transport is a major consumer of energy. In thirds from 1985/86 1999 some 34% of all UK energy consumption was used by transport 52 pages - half of the report - are devoted to a series of articles examining in detail current areas of interest in transport, and also methodological issues relating to the collection of transport statistics. These articles, clearly laid out and copiously illustrated with charts and tables and the odd box – as, indeed, is the main feature on Trends – cover the following subjects: 5
Partially responding households in the National increased levels of freight traffic on our inland water- Travel Survey ways. A specially commissioned research project The NTS is the Department’s major personal travel will be used to help the Group identify the key issues. survey. The percentage of sampled households that The waterways’ role as a freight transport system has co-operate fully in the survey has been falling in been in decline for many years, mainly due to recent years. However, each year about 7% of changes in markets and modes of transport. The households in the sample participate in some but not Group will look at how to reverse this decline and all parts of the survey. This article describes the will assess such issues as: work carried out to investigate whether data from Identifying freight traffic suitable for inland these households can be used to supplement those waterways provided by those who co-operate fully. What are the existing barriers to increasing this The use and characteristics of vehicle stock data traffic, and how can they be addressed This article describes the uses made of information How to make the Freight Facilities Grant Scheme stored by the Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency. more attractive to inland waterways freight Some 65 million vehicle records are stored and this projects provides a wealth of data. As well as analysing the 28.4 million licensed vehicle records, the data are The respective roles of national, regional and used in assessing levels of Vehicle Excise Duty local government, as well as the navigation/ports evasion, and comparisons over time are also possible. authorities and operators The problems resulting from using an administrative How to promote the potential for more freight data source, such as non-comparability over time, traffic tend to be minor in comparison with the benefits of having a complete record of the GB vehicle stock. The need for further research. How do passengers travel to and from UK airports? It is planned that the Study Group will be made up of inland waterways, shipping, ports, regeneration, local Key statistics in the article are: government and freight interest groups, as well as 170 million passengers now use UK airports relevant DETR officials. Hugh Wenban-Smith, a annually, treble the number 20 years ago. Many former senior civil servant with a strong transport and passengers use airports to change aircraft, but the environment background, will chair the Group. majority travel to and from the airport by surface means of transport Transport Bill receives Royal Assent Taking the major UK airports together, three The Transport Act 2000 became law last December. quarters of passengers travel by car or taxi. It contains, amongst other measures, a large package However, there are significant differences of measures to improve local transport services. It between airports. At Gatwick and Heathrow, for requires local authorities to prepare local transport example, over a fifth of passengers arrive or plans, which will include a bus strategy setting out depart by rail, a much higher proportion than at how their bus functions are to be exercised. other airports. Local authorities are also given powers to introduce Transport Trends: 2001 Edition is obtainable from road charging in towns and cities to reduce road TSO, price £35 net. congestion and pollution. They will also be able to impose workplace parking charges. Revenue raised will be ploughed back into local transport improvements. News The Act establishes the Strategic Rail Authority Freight on inland waterways (SRA) and provides for better regulation of the railway industry. The SRA will provide strategic The Environment and Transport Minister, Lord direction for rail transport as part of an integrated Whitty announced in November the setting up of a transport system. The Act also includes a number of new Freight Study Group to examine and identify important additional provisions including the cost-effective and practical means of encouraging 6 extension of the freight facilities grant scheme to Digest and focuses on providing trends over time, short sea and coastal shipping routes. including performance against quantified targets and commitments set at the national and international £8.4bn local transport boost level. It includes all environmental indicators from the set of headline indicators of sustainable New light rail schemes, new bypasses and relief development. roads and advanced bus systems are on the agenda across England following the £8.4bn boost to local The Digest of Environmental Statistics can be found transport announced in December. at http://www.environment.detr.gov.uk/des/index.htm This is the first instalment of the £180bn public and Free copies of The Environment in your Pocket 2000 private investment announced in the 10-Year can be obtained from DETR Free Literature, PO Box Transport Plan unveiled in July. A third of the Plan 236, Wetherby, West Yorkshire, LS23 7NB (Tel: 0870 funding - £59bn - is for local transport for the next 1226 236 Fax: 0870 1226 237). Please quote ten years, of which £19.3bn is public capital reference number 00EP1271. It is also available on investment. http://www.environment.detr.gov.uk/eiyp/index.htm. The £8.4bn announced covers five years’ worth of Introduction of 44-tonne lorries this £19.3bn investment package. This will allow English local authorities to implement transport plans Transport Minister, Keith Hill, confirmed that 44 they have drawn up for their own areas, in tonne lorries will be allowed to operate on Britain’s partnership with local people and local transport roads from 1 February, which will reduce the number operators. of lorry journeys made on our roads. £4.4bn will be available for public transport, covering His announcement follows last year’s report by the major projects, as well as a wide range of smaller Commission for Integrated Transport (CfIT), which schemes (costing £2.8bn). The balance of £4bn will recommended the introduction of 44 tonne, six axle be invested in roads, with £3bn to be spent on lorries, citing clear environmental benefits. Their upgrading and maintaining local roads. Up to £1bn introduction could lead to an annual saving of up to will be available for investment in major road 100 million lorry kilometres, equivalent to 1,000 schemes (those costing more than £5m each). fewer lorries on the road with considerable reductions in CO2 and other emissions. Smaller scale improvements include 8,200 schemes focusing on road safety measures. This funding will It is axle weight, not gross vehicle weight, which is also contribute to up to 4,500 km of better bus routes. crucial in determining road and bridge wear. A 44 tonne vehicle with a 10½ tonne maximum axle Environmental Statistics 2000 weight causes less wear to roads and bridges than a 40 tonne, five-axle lorry with an 11½ tonne axle Trends and statistics in environmental conditions weight limit. over recent years are given in the latest version of the The Commission for Integrated Transport report on Digest of Environmental Statistics, published on the 44 tonne lorries (published March 2000) is available Internet in January by the DETR. at http://www.cfit.gov.uk/reports/44tonne/index.htm The Digest covers global atmosphere, air quality, inland water quality and use, coastal and marine £62 million for rural buses waters, radioactivity, noise, waste and recycling, land use and land cover, wildlife, and public attitudes to Rural buses will receive £62 million of new the environment. Many of the statistics presented are investment to improve services and encourage greater already available elsewhere, but the Digest brings bus use, Deputy Prime Minister John Prescott together a wide range of environmental topics to announced in February. Local authorities will provide a handy source of reference. receive £41.5 million in the Rural Bus Subsidy Grant (RBSG). In addition, this year’s Rural Bus The website will be updated periodically as new data Challenge competition is worth £21.2 million, an become available throughout the year. It is increase of 25% in funding on last year’s schemes. accompanied by a booklet of key facts, The Environment in your Pocket 2000, which covers Over the next three years rural bus services across more than 50 of the key data series presented in the England will benefit from a total of £137 million in 7 the RBSG and £60 million in the Challenge share their good practice with other authorities, to Competition. This is a 42% increase in funding over help improve transport throughout the country. the previous three years. The successful authorities are: Bristol City Council, In 1997 around 60% of rural households did not have Devon County Council, Hampshire County Council, access to a regular bus service. February’s Hertfordshire County Council, Nottingham City announcement is the latest in a series of initiatives to Council, Nottinghamshire County Council, improve the situation. As a result, more than 1,800 Oxfordshire County Council, Surrey County Council, extra bus services are serving rural communities, Warrington Borough Council, City of York Council carrying 16 million passengers a year. and the authorities in Merseyside and the Greater 73 local authorities will receive extra cash under the Manchester, South Yorkshire and West Yorkshire RBSG. This year’s allocation is a 28% increase on areas which collectively produced their local the £32.5 million allocated last year. A total of 51 transport plans. schemes from 47 local authorities will win additional Over Summer 2000, all English local highway funding from this year’s Challenge competition. authorities outside London submitted their first full Local Transport Plans, containing an integrated Strategy for modern and sustainable transport strategy for their area, and a costed transport system programme of measures to improve local transport over the period 2001/02 to 2005/06. In December the Deputy Prime Minister, John Prescott, outlined in Government announced the local transport plan March a series of transport schemes born out of the capital settlement of £8.4bn over 5 years. 10 Year Plan to tackle congestion and pollution through an integrated, innovative and long-term In addition to the capital funds announced for local approach. Regional packages include: transport plans the Government is providing resources over the next 3 years targeted at improving In the North - the £487 million Leeds Supertram; local bus services, with some £138m already and road schemes valued at £50 million announced for rural bus subsidy grant, £60m for rural In the South West - the Bristol light rail scheme, bus challenge schemes and £40m for the new Urban worth £194 million; and two major road schemes bus challenge. In the South East - the South Hampshire Rapid Nationally there have already been improvements - a Transit light rail scheme, worth £190 million; the 7% increase in public transport patronage over the £107 million improvement to the A3 at Hindhead; last 3 years. In 130 towns and cities with bus quality and the £15 million Kent Fastrack scheme partnerships established, an increase in use of between 10-20%, and 1800 new or enhanced rural In the Midlands and East England - a £37 million bus services in England under the new rural bus Masshouse Circus public transport project in initiatives. Birmingham; and road schemes worth £123 million £7.5 billion rail boost All three light rail schemes, worth a total of £871 million, have taken a step closer to going into service The Deputy Prime Minister announced at the after having been measured against the Government’s beginning of April a £7.5 billion package of rail tough appraisal criteria. measures on the first working day of the Government’s 10 Year Transport Plan. It represents Public transport also benefits from £52 million of a down payment on the £60 billion provision for rail funding for schemes in Kent and Birmingham to in the Government’s £180 billion Plan. improve the flow of public transport, improve safety and combat congestion and pollution. Railtrack would receive a £1.5 billion advanced payment in return for increased accountability and a Excellent start for Local Transport Plans change in the company’s role. Railtrack will now concentrate on maintenance of the existing network, 14 Centres of Excellence for Integrated Transport improving safety and the service for passengers - Planning were named in March on the basis of the with other partners helping to expand the network. high quality local transport plans they submitted last As part of the agreement with Government, Railtrack summer. The successful Centres will be expected to has undertaken to: 8
spend the money strictly on improving the railway Seminar: Airport access statistics intensify its efforts to ensure the strongest focus This seminar, held at the Commonwealth Institute, on its responsibility for the core network, and on High Street Kensington, London, on 29 September the needs of its train operator customers, working 2000, had two speakers: Andrew Sharpe, Director closely and constructively with the Rail Regulator General of the International Air Rail Organisation and the Strategic Rail Authority (IARO) and Bill Lythgoe, of the Institute for take an active and co-operative role in the joint Transport Studies, University of Leeds. venture companies to be set up to take forward Andrew Sharpe gave me his full text for publication. major expansion projects, starting with the East I have abridged it only slightly, so that members who Coast Main Line were unable to attend can get the flavour of the to appoint, in consultation with Government, a presentation without too much editorial mediation. I non-executive director to its main Board with a hope that the resulting bulk is outweighed by the specific remit to provide a powerful public and improved readability. consumer interest voice “ As a broad generalisation, you can access all The Deputy Prime Minister also welcomed the airports by air, private car or taxi; most by bus or SRA’s announcement that Stagecoach have been coach in a variety of forms; about 70 by rail; and a appointed preferred bidder for the new South West handful by water. Walk and bike (and, perhaps, Trains franchise, which will run for up to 20 years. horse!) are possible modes, although unusual (except Stagecoach envisage a 25% increase in capacity over for some employees). This list of modes, of course, the next three years, and they are looking at double only refers to the transport of people! Airports also decker trains into Waterloo to tackle the current need to be accessible for cargo, by aviation related overcrowding. supplies (notably fuel) and by airport related The East Coast Mainline will benefit from the first of materials (most importantly, because of their weight the new partnership projects also announced, to and bulk, construction materials: frequent fliers will deliver a major upgrade of the line between London know that most airports are building sites). and the North, bringing a capacity increase of more Access by air than 25%. Statistics on access by air are relatively easy to To assist the SRA in delivering the 10 Year Plan obtain. Many airports, especially larger ones, belong targets, the Government is to provide it with an extra to Airports Council International (ACI), which £155 million over the next two years. publishes annual statistics for all their members, and Finally, the go-ahead was given to the funding and monthly statistics (passengers, cargo and air transport construction of the final stage of the Channel Tunnel movements) for leading airports or cities. Others Rail Link from North Kent to London’s St Pancras belong to the International Association of Airport Station, due to be completed in 2007. Railtrack will Executives or the American Association of Airport be the operator of the line, but construction will be Executives. Many airports also publish their annual under a new public private partnership with London accounts, with traffic statistics. Incidentally, many Continental Railways and Bechtel. passengers arriving by air, especially at larger airports, also depart by air - they are just changing planes In addition to the rephasing of grant, the Government (interlining). This is especially of significance when has agreed to pay Railtrack the difference between looking at surface access percentages. What is the amount of freight income allowed for the next 100%: all passengers or all terminating passengers? five years in the Regulator’s final conclusions in October 2000 and the amount of freight income This leads neatly into consideration of surface access. proposed by the Regulator at the conclusion of his Access by water freight review expected to be later this month. This There are a few airports normally accessible by will avoid the need to increase passenger access water. Perhaps strangely to the geographers among charges to compensate for any shortfall. you, these include Heathrow: at one stage Virgin Atlantic offered to take their Upper Class passengers from Heathrow to the City by car to Brentford Ferry 9
Wharf then by Limoboat. This took just over an hour Maglev is under consideration for a number of to Tower Bridge. There were 7 boats a day, airports. In the US, the FRA and the DOT are connecting with Virgin Atlantic flights. funding feasibility studies - for local Maglev lines in Better examples are in Macao (whose airport has its Pittsburgh and New Orleans, for a route from own jetfoil ferry terminal), Osaka Kansai (built on an Baltimore via BWI to Washington Union station, and artificial island, which I believe is accessible by ferry longer distance services like the proposed Atlanta - from Osaka); and LaGuardia in New York. There are Chattanooga Maglev (which will call at both airports) ferries from Hong Kong Chek Lap Kok to Tuen Mun and the California high speed service to the airports in New Territories and to Discovery Bay - both of Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Ontario reputedly giving an interesting ride. At one time (California). Titusville (Florida) may also get a there was a river boat service to London City Airport: Maglev link to Port Canaveral and Cape Canaveral. this failed through lack of support and the rarely Orlando International has been suggested for a recognised fact that the Thames isn’t actually very Maglev to Disneyland. Other places where it is under straight. San Francisco International Airport is consideration include Birmingham and Luton Airport investigating use of an amphibious vehicle to ferry here, München and Berlin Schönefeld in Germany, passengers downtown. Rio de Janeiro and Pretoria. Access by road I have a rough classification of airport railways - high speed network, high speed dedicated, regional, I don’t propose to say much specifically about access suburban, metro and LRT - but there are no clear by road: private car (park and ride or kiss and ride) boundaries between any of them and no clear and taxi are always available. The variety of bus and definitions. Think Gatwick: is Thameslink regional coach services is legion - from the National Express or suburban? Think Birmingham: is Virgin Cross long distance coaches to Heathrow (claimed to be the Country a high speed network or regional? It matters largest bus and coach interchange in the country) in the key area of communication with customers. A through the 140 bus to Heathrow to the many hotel high percentage of passengers on high quality airport shuttles (which the Americans quaintly call vans). links are travelling on business - over 50% on Access by rail Heathrow Express, over 60% on Oslo’s Airport Express Train. They can be attracted by high quality Looking at surface access by rail, I believe that there - price is irrelevant. But they need consistency of are about 70 rail-served airports world-wide: there service and marketing: they need to know that an are also about 140 under discussion, being planned or airport express offers the same quality in Heathrow being built. The newest are those at Düsseldorf and and Hong Kong, in Stockholm and Milan. Sydney, both of which opened in May. Though Sydney’s is not called the airport railway, because IARO is working on a set of standards for high speed airports have negative connotations in Sydney. dedicated airport railways which we hope to get the major players to sign up to at our conference in What is an airport railway? Heathrow Express, Washington in October. Stansted Express and Gatwick Express, obviously. What about Thameslink and Connex to Gatwick? Or A taxi is, after all, a taxi almost wherever you are, Virgin Cross Country and Thames to Gatwick? And and a taxi is a great competitor to the airport train. how many airport railways is that to Gatwick - one or For example, at two airports (Oslo and Hong Kong), five? What about Birmingham and Luton Airports, taxi’s share of surface access dropped from around both currently with a bus connection from an airport 45% to around 5% when the new airport with the station and both ultimately to have some kind of new railway opened. This was partly a function of automated people mover? distance, but also a function of transfer from one high status high quality mode to another. And what about monorails and maglevs? New York Newark, Osaka Itami and Tokyo’s domestic airport, Who accesses airports? Haneda, are the only ones I know of with a monorail, We know some things about existing users, from although they are proposed for several more locations surveys usually by airport authorities or local - Düsseldorf (connecting with the NBS), El Toro in authorities (where they are prepared to release them). California, Moscow (connecting the city’s three Apart from the obvious problems of surveying and airports and the centre), and Okinawa. definitions - especially where there are language problems - one can be reasonably happy about these. 10
Problems of definition are highlighted by the CAA’s Airports have airport throughput statistics: ACI excellent airport surveys - the survey base, the people publish these regularly, although only for their own questioned, are departing air passengers. There is a members. Statistics available include total suspicion that the characteristics of arriving and passengers (without separating out interlining departing passengers are different, so a survey of passengers), flights, and cargo tonnage. Interlining departing passengers is inadequate. This is why passengers can be numerous, and obviously affect the Heathrow Express are reluctant to publish a market potential for surface access modes. share - they believe their share is higher than that Most airports do customer surveys - in particular, revealed by CAA. profiling. In the UK, the CAA do this, and do it well, Also only air passengers are surveyed. Employees as a continuing survey, publishing many of the are also very important - there are about a thousand results. A lot of basic airport data are produced - for every million passengers through the airport each access mode, age and sex, group size, income group, year. There are 58,000 employees at Heathrow, each country of residence - although only really for the travelling around 10 times a week. There are major airports. certainly airport railways which carry more IATA do a very interesting survey of customer employees than air passengers. satisfaction with different aspects of airports, Meeters and greeters, business partners, shoppers and including ground access. spotters are also an important part of the total market. On the railway side, it is more difficult. Especially in Business partners, incidentally, are more important at the privatised railway, there is a reluctance to give some airports - like Amsterdam - which aspire to be out hard figures or survey results - passengers by mainports or centres of attraction in their own right. journey purpose, for example. Kuala Lumpur International Airport is branded as “the airport in the forest”, a tourist attraction with The message, therefore, is that an outsider can often potential for sightseeing in its own right. München only get indicators, pointers, trends and not absolutes. has a visitor centre with its own S-Bahn station. And In many cases this is adequate. Which brings us back many airports promote conference business - to the question of what you want statistics for in the obviously, as communications centres. I think it is first place. The key groups needing information are: true to say that Heathrow has the largest bus and 1. People planning and considering new services coach station in the country, with 750,000 passengers a year going there just to change between coaches. They need order of magnitude costs, revenues and usage data to help make and validate their forecasts. Some airport railways are used for commuting - in After all, a new airport railway could cost £750m. particular, Gatwick Express and Stansted Express for commuting to London - so you cannot make the easy Capital costs are not difficult to find - infrastructure assumption that even on easy-to-classify services like and rolling stock costs are generally reasonably these everyone is an airport passenger. The position, standard, although the former can be high because of obviously, is significantly more complex with the need for tunnelling under runways and the latter regional and high speed network links. because of the high quality standards needed to attract airport passengers. Statistics like the number of links (ignoring definition problems) and the change in their numbers over time Operating costs are very difficult to find, although only needed to be researched and collated. Fares are obviously existing train operators can extrapolate relatively easy to find. Statistics like trains/hour and from present day costs. journey time are usually available from published Usage - especially in conference papers there are timetables. Capital costs are often published in the good statistics from around the world, even on such technical press: operating and maintenance costs are matters as the value and use of in-town check-in. usually totally confidential. Income is also Demand elasticity is available in anecdotal form - confidential, although where usage can be ascertained high quality often leads to high use. This is one can make a guess at income. illustrated comprehensively by US experience, where Collectors of statistics are many - which is part of the virtually all airport links are of the metro and problem: the data are spread over a number of suburban type. All have a very low fare and very low sources. IARO has a specialised but fairly usage. The fare can be anything down to 50p - until comprehensive database. this year, Boston’s cost 85 cents: it’s now $1 - say 11
63p. They also have very low customer satisfaction, For a town like Luton or a place like Paisley, the according to IATA’s Global Airport Monitor. airport is a major generator of employment. It is also 2. People travelling to and from airports a major generator of congestion. They need information on surface access links to help As I said, for the larger airports in the UK, CAA decide on how to get to their ultimate destination. statistics are available in profusion: for the smaller What there is in the way of information is variable. ones - Leeds/Bradford, Humberside, Bristol - they are Some airline timetables - although no US ones I am only available from airport surveys which are not aware of - have times, fares and frequencies: few always accessible and not always consistent. indicate quality. Swissair include not only train times This matters because of future needs, obviously. from Zürich and Geneva airports to their town Manchester Airport’s Green Commuter Plan made centres, but also to virtually everywhere else in the very important point that it was reasonable to Switzerland too. expect airport throughput to double in the next few There is some on-line information - especially from years: it was also reasonable to expect employment to the Official Airline Guide, but some airport and local double. It was not reasonable to expect employee transport web-sites are good too. Vienna airport parking to double on their congested site. (http://www.viennaairport.com/) and Houston Metro Projections are important to look at where trends are (http://www.houmetro.harris.tx.us/) are excellent taking us, so that we can attempt to manage them if examples; but http://www.airlinks.co.uk/is very good possible. Manchester also made the point that many for coach access to London’s airports. small changes are easier than a few big ones. So, for There is often reasonable local information - like the example, employees are asked not to drive in once a tube map or the GBTT - for outbound passengers: fortnight. This reduces employee car trips by 10%. this is less accessible for inbound passengers. Magic! Especially since employee car occupancy Heathrow Express research found that 70% of tends to be low and employee willingness to pay for passengers had decided their mode of travel from parking even lower, so employee parking is at the destination airport to city centre before they boarded same time uneconomic and a generator of congestion. their flight. Congestion is probably the main reason why airports 3. Existing operators want to know and forecast access statistics. Highway congestion in places is a significant deterrent to Existing operators are interested in benchmarking airport access. For this reason the authorities have their performance against that of others. Through been persuaded to allow the use of PFCs - airport contacts made within IARO, Ernst & Young have user taxes - for a rail connection to JFK airport. They done a couple of rounds of benchmarking of major accept the argument that, if they don’t, congestion airport express railways - most recently with will actually inhibit the growth of the airport. Heathrow Express, Arlanda Express and Oslo’s Airport Express Train. The first round was in Congestion on airport roads is a serious issue - hence considerable depth and detail, so the providers Heathrow’s creation of a fare-free zone around the became very concerned about commercial airport. You can travel all round the airport by bus confidentiality (especially when Gatwick Express and completely free. This is partly because many airport Heathrow Express teamed up and suggested to the employees work on the fringes of the airport - SSRA that it might be a good idea if they ran although inevitably some drive in anyway! Stansted Express too!). Parking is also a problem. Some airports get The concerns are still present in the second round - a significant revenue from car parks, which inhibits lot less detailed, but certainly very productive of them from promoting public transport. But there are interesting results. The railways are forming three more productive uses of space. At Heathrow, BAA task groups to look at specific areas highlighted by earns £1.60 from each departing international the study. It is likely that a future round will be even passenger in car parking revenue - but over £10 less detailed and more able to be disseminated - at (before the abolition of duty free in the EU) in retail least to IARO members! and commercial revenue. 4. Airport and local planners Curbside congestion is also an issue. You can see it at Heathrow’s Terminal 3 every day, as meeters and greeters mingle with kiss and ride traffic and it all 12 gets out of hand. It is even more of a problem at Conclusions many American airports, where it is exacerbated by My conclusions come with a challenge: how does one curbside check-in. measure the qualitative aspects of different airport Heathrow Express was forecast to save 3000 car railways, ideally as one composite measure? Things journeys a day and probably does. My friends in the like frequency, reliability, ease of access, Piccadilly Line tell me that, while their trend in convenience for those with baggage, journey time carryings has been gradually downwards, there is no advantage over the alternatives, all matter to people. kink to mark where Heathrow Express opened. So Can there be one measure - or a way of combining most of the traffic has transferred from road - car, measures - which allows you to compare Gatwick taxi or Airbus. Brisbane’s link, opening in May Express and Heathrow Express, Arlanda Express and 2001, is forecast to save 10,000 car trips a day and Flytoget? Your thoughts would be appreciated. the DLR extension to London City Airport half a My general conclusions on airport access statistics million car journeys a year. are that: Air cargo by rail some are better than others Cargo is important at some airports - and very there are many problems, especially on surface important at a few. The second largest airline in access statistics; but terms of size of fleet is FedEx. Much air cargo travels by truck - indeed, BA’s European air cargo statistics are a valuable management tool helping rarely sees a plane. BA have explored the potential policy and decision making. for moving cargo by rail instead of road - initially By doing that, of course, they help the passenger - the between Heathrow and Gatwick - but found major one who pays for it all.” problems. Heathrow to Glasgow may be the next trial, although there are proposals for an EU * * * experiment on the London - Paris route. Bill Lythgoe then discussed, in some technical detail, It works in specialised circumstances. A very current forecasting models for rail travel demand to successful operation is that by Jan De Rijk Logistics: and from airports, based on ticket flows at they run two trains every night between Milan and Manchester and Stansted. The current forecasting Amsterdam and Luxembourg with export air cargo: procedure, used by Train Operating Companies, can the trains return with ordinary industrial goods. The be represented by the formula: n driver is the ability to mix air cargo in one direction Vf/Vb = {GDPf/GDPb} (1+t) {Ff/Fb} {GTf/GTb} , with ordinary cargo in the other. where: In Germany there are weekend lorry bans, so a road- V = volume (number of passengers) based cargo operation cannot run seven days a week. GDP = Gross Domestic Product So air cargo through Frankfurt tends to be rail-hauled F = fare level - especially from Mannheim to Italy and Hungary. GT = generalised time (joining, headway, etc) The driver here is the lorry ban. f = forecast year Malpensa are working on a major logistics centre for b = base year air-rail-road interchange, to facilitate and encourage , and = elasticities use of rail for air cargo. n = time from b to f Gardermoen airport is famous for its oil trains. One It turned out on analysis that the time trend term was runs every night, supplying the total needs of the not particularly significant. Model I was therefore airport - no doubt it is preferred by the inhabitants of produced as a simplified version of this formula: Oslo to the 50 HGV movements which would be Vf/Vb = {GDPf/GDPb} {Ff/Fb} {GTf/GTb} needed instead. Wick airport’s fuel comes in Applying this model produced the following results: containers by rail from Canvey Island to Georgemas Junction and is road-hauled from there - one of the GDP elasticities longest freight hauls in the country. Otherwise fuel is Manchester 2.8 generally taken by rail to a nearby railhead - Stansted 5.9 Langley, for example, in the case of Heathrow - and (Recommended inter-urban 1.0-1.5) thence by pipeline. Fare elasticities 13
to airport -0.7 > 2 interchanges -1.3 from airport -0.4 Bill concluded that: (non-London inter-urban -0.9) Generalised time elasticies Air passengers are an appropriate measure to use to airport -1.5 Fare elasticities are relatively inelastic and vary from airport -1.0 very roughly as the square root of the fare (recommended -0.9) Time elasticities are higher for journeys to Model I predicted that when GDP went up, rail travel airports than for journeys from airports would go up even more; and that the level of fares The first interchange is the most deterrent were not of great concern to passengers. The interchange effects are higher for airport rail For Model II air passengers (AP) were substituted for journeys than for rail journeys generally GDP: Vf/Vb = {APf/APb} {Ff/Fb} {GTf/GTb} . This time the following results were produced: * * * GDP elasticities In the question-and-answer session that succeeded the Manchester 1.9 presentations it was established that: Stansted 1.0 Bill Lythgoe could use air passenger figures Fare elasticities instead of GDP as the airports made available to airport -0.6 their own forecasts of air travel from airport -0.3 The model was a global one, and thus unable to Generalised time elasticies differentiate between different groups of users to airport -1.5 (such as meeters and greeters), or different types from airport -1.0 of travel (such as business versus leisure). Model III added overall time (OT) and interchange However, a split between full fare and reduced- time to the equation. The results showed that rate ticket holders could be undertaken, as the passengers were more concerned about the time taken basic data input was ticket sales to get to the airport than time taken to get to With respect to Heathrow traffic, meeters and destination from the airport, and that the need to greeters tended to concentrate at Paddington interchange deterred people from travelling. rather than at the airport The final model, Model IV, introduced variable West London commuters effectively subsidise (in elasticities: fare elasticity was set to vary with power terms of congestion) a small number of rich of fare between 0 and 1; and interchange was travellers who use the Heathrow Express on the replaced by three dummy variables corresponding to commuters’ tracks one interchange; two interchanges; and more than two interchanges. The results are shown below: The high price for the Heathrow Express was an irrelevance to business travellers. And though the Air passenger elasticities tube was cheaper it was also slower. The two Manchester 1.6 main groups of complainants were journalists and Stansted 1.1 travellers from Copenhagen (which has a very Fare elasticities cheap airport link) to airport -0.2 fare0.5 It might be possible to get data on flow speeds on from airport -0.4 fare0.5 roads in airport vicinities Overall time elasticies to airport -0.7 The issue of identifying (perhaps by working from airport not significant back from the elasticities) the most effective Headway elasticities headway between trains was not specifically to airport -0.2 covered by the model. Anecdotal evidence from airport -0.1 suggested one of between 10-15 minutes; but the Stansted service achieved a 20-30% market share Interchange coefficients on headways of 30 minutes 1 interchange -0.9 2 interchanges -1.2 14
Confidentiality issues arising out of privatisation Developments likely to affect this stretch of the A66 has much reduced the availability of data; as has include the proposed Darlington Eastern Transport the fragmentation of the industry and the new Corridor road, the Teeside Airport Freight Village, a round of franchising. However, ATOC will try to new stadium for Darlington Football Club, and two help bona fide researchers acquire necessary data business parks, Morton Palms and Great Park. Other questions asked, which either led to JMP will produce 18 different models projecting inconsequential answers or to answers that I was not operational requirements in line with developments quick enough to record, included: up to the year 2020. Does public transport benefit from the reduction * * * in size of households? JMP Consultants is investigating the feasibility of How were the network aspects of interchanges opening two new rail stations in Derbyshire, on the handled? Erewash Valley Line between Nottingham and Chesterfield. JMP will recommend suitable sites for What are the effects of car parking charges on the stations (to serve Pye Bridge and Ironville, and airports? Clay Cross and North Wingfield). The study will Why invest heavily in rail infrastructure when also provide estimates of capital and annual costs, buses and coaches can be used instead? forecast passenger demand and revenue, and assess the wider environmental and economic impacts. A What is the fare structure on the local rail services preliminary assessment will also be made of the parallelling the route of the Heathrow Express? scope for a new rail freight terminal at Clay Cross to What is the transport strategy for Heathrow? serve commercial and industrial development in the How does CrossRail fit in, if at all? area.
MVA News of members Melton Borough Council has retained MVA, in association with the University of Leeds Institute for During the five months ended 6 April, the following Transport Studies, to develop a Borough Transport activities of members that may have a direct Plan and provide ongoing support in the development influence on the provision or analysis of transport of a transport strategy covering all modes. The statistics have been reported: strategy will set out the needs and priorities for JMP transport in the Borough in the short and medium JMP introduced its new 3.50 version of the VISSIM term and will be complementary to the development microsimulation software to the first UK VISSIM of Leicestershire County Council’s Local Transport User Group meeting held at Newcastle University in Plan. February. Dr Jessica Anderson presented a paper on A forecasting model is also being developed for the Assessment of Light Rapid Transit with VISSIM to an town of Melton Mowbray, based on up-to-date traffic audience which consisted largely of consultants and flow and origin and destination data to allow testing representatives from public bodies. of the impact of alternatives for development on the highway network as well as of infrastructure schemes In recent months JMP has been commissioned to and network management proposals. carry out a number of VISSIM microsimulation projects, covering applications from the integration of The strategy will set out specific proposals for LRT into road networks through to the auditing of dealing with key concerns such as public transport models on behalf of the Highways Agency. provision, traffic congestion in Melton Mowbray and poor air quality associated with heavy goods vehicle * * * movement through the town centre. The Highways Agency has commissioned JMP * * * Consultants to carry out a VISSIM microsimulation A study by MVA on behalf of the DETR indicates modelling exercise to assess the impact of the various that varying the London taxi fare structure by time of developments on the A66 and proposals for highway day could improve the current mismatch between improvements. The study will involve an 8.5km supply and demand. MVA researchers studied stretch of the A66 to the north east of Darlington. 15 current demand and supply both for licensed taxis of public transport provision. The study will (Black Cabs) and private hire vehicles (mini-cabs), recommend a range of options for improvement to by time period and in different parts of London. The passenger transport in the Borough. MVA will assess project included an on-street survey among 1,500 current and future transport demand, taking account Londoners; a seven-day log of taxi drivers’ work of new development, rail re-franchising and general activities, observation of “hailers” and available cabs; economic growth within the area. The study also and consultation with the trade, local authorities and includes an examination of perceptions of, and consumer groups. aspirations for, public transport among the public and The study highlights considerable unmet demand for key stakeholders, and a review of best practice both licensed taxis (i.e. where non-taxi modes are used in the UK and abroad. The consultants will when a taxi is preferred or trips not made due to a recommend enhancements to the existing public lack of an available taxi). MVA estimated that taxi transport network to provide practical solutions to the usage would increase by up to 25% if taxi supply issues identified. improved significantly. At present, Londoners who The brief covers routes, modes, infrastructure and are unsuccessful in securing a taxi switch to public other aspects of passenger transport provision. transport (43%), mini-cab (29%), private car (11%), Specific issues include accommodating the differing walking (6%) or staying at home (11%). The greatest transport demands of the young and elderly levels of demand/supply mismatch occur during the populations within an improved public transport late evening periods and at weekends, particularly in framework, consideration of the needs of both rural the central area. However, fare reform would be and urban areas of the Borough, and provision of most effective if focused on increasing the number of alternatives which permit large numbers of people to taxi drivers operating at unsocial time periods rather travel on faster, more regular and more reliable than in certain hot spots of demand. services. 15 different fare scenarios were tested, based on Basingstoke has grown rapidly since the 1950s, to varying the minimum charge both by time of day and become a major sub-regional centre with a population day of week and in relation to distance/time travelled of over 150,000. Rail and bus dominate public for these journeys, while maintaining average fares at transport provision, with the town well served by roughly the same level. The most effective options connections to London and other major destinations, involved replacing the current fixed extra (60p-90p) but its high capacity road system and generous for unsocial periods with a proportional increase in parking availability has probably encouraged above- fare at these times, according to journey length. The average levels of car usage. model suggests, for example, that a 30% increase in fares late on Friday nights would increase supply of taxis by nearly 14% between 10 p.m. and midnight, and by just over 24% between midnight and 6 a.m. Such a fares increase would be expected to cause hirings to fall in number; but, in fact, the substantial reduction in taxi wait times (due to increased supply) Dates for your diary would lead to only a slight fall in hirings between 10 25 Apr A TSUG seminar on Parking at the p.m. and midnight, and a small increase in the 2001 DETR HQ in Great Minster House, 76 number of passengers between midnight and 6 a.m. Marsham Street, London SW1P 4DR. Actions to address the supply/demand mismatch will Speakers will be Shiela Holden of now be for the Greater London Authority to decide Brighton Borough Council and Martin on. Dale of MVA 13 June A TSUG seminar on Aviation statistics MVA’s summary report is available, price £9.50 + 2001 at the DETR HQ in Great Minster VAT, from: MVA House, Victoria Way, Woking, House, 76 Marsham Street, London Surrey, GU21 1DD. Phone: 01483 728051. Email: SW1P 4DR. [email protected]. Other seminars planned for the next six months, for * * * which dates and venues are still to be confirmed, are: Basingstoke and Deane Borough Council has appointed MVA to undertake a fundamental review Maritime statistics 16
Regional access to the Channel Tunnel Mainland Europe: Q4 2000*
Transport of Goods by Road in Great Britain: 2000* Next newsletter Provisional Ports Statistics: 2000*
Please send contributions for Newsletter 55 to: June Road Casualties in Great Britain: Main Results: 2000* J M Woods 43 Church Lane Statistical release on Bus Quality Lower Bemerton Indicators: Q4 2000/01* Salisbury Wilts SP2 9NR *Bulletins or press releases supplied free of charge. Tel: 01722 422169 * * * Fax: 01722 503007 Email: [email protected]
Appendix: DETR Statistical Publications A schedule of publications to be produced during the next three months by Transport Statistics, DETR, is given below. Apr 2001 Statistical release on Bus Quality Indicators: Q3 2000/01* National Road Maintenance Condition Survey: 2000* May Traffic in Great Britain: Q1 2001* Vehicle Licensing Statistics: 2000* Road Goods Vehicles Travelling to