The Obama Doctrine on the Middle East Conflicts

Date: Sunday, Oct 18, 2015 Venue: Oriental Hall – AUC Tahrir Campus

The Prince Alwaleed Center for American Studies and Research (CASAR) at the School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, The American University in Cairo headed by Ambassador Magda Shahin in cooperation with the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs (ECFA) represented by Ambassador Sayed Shalaby hosted a public lecture for Dr. Yassin El-Ayouty, Counselor for Law Offices of C. Carolina Maluje, P.A. on the Obama doctrine on the Middle East conflicts (CV attached).

Dr. Magda Shahin introduced Dr. El-Ayouty in few words, praising him as one of the pillars of NY city. Having left Cairo some years ago, Dr. El-Ayouty remained a sincere and devoted Egyptian. No one who passed by NY wouldn’t know Dr. El-Ayouty whose blog is carefully read by all his friends and foes alike. Referring to his impressive CV, she mentioned that he had worked for 30 years at the UN heading the African division and watched over the decolonization of Namibia, but unfortunately missed today’s last colonial power, Israel.

He drafted the statute of the UN Institute for Training and Research UNITAR and later became its director of training, which has been his real vocation for many years.

As an Egyptian and Arab, Dr. Ayouty was always ready to help the Arab countries and never hesitant to take up difficult and risky tasks. Starting with the Algerian war of independence. At the peak of Darfur war, he served for over a year in Darfur. He was appointed by the UN Secretary-General to the panel of experts on Darfur.

He then turned his attention to the Iraqi war, in connection with which he went to Baghdad repeatedly since March 2007. Not to forget his help and assistance to his Egyptian nationals, when he was appointed by the US District Court Judge of NY to settle the claims of the Egyptian families of the Egypt air crash off the US eastern coast in 1999.

He devotes now his time and expertise to help the Iraqi Judiciary. As founder and president of SUNSGLOW-Global Training in the Rule of Law, Dr. El-Ayouty is launching several programs for post-Saddam Iraq for the purpose of enhancing the independence of the Iraqi Judiciary. SUNSCLOW also organizes internships and externships for both St. Francis College and Fordham University School of Law in NY.

Dr. El-Ayouty started by presenting how to compare and analyze a doctrine. He stated that, to be able to evaluate a doctrine is to look at it’s opposite. He started by quoting Dick Cheney, US Vice-President during 8-years of George Bush Jr. presidency. In his book ‘Exceptional’ Dick Cheney and his daughter, Liz, mentioned how Obama weakened

1 America, quoting from the book;

“[Obama], a villain, ineffectual, American hating, destroyer of the military soft on terrorism, an appeaser, and damaged America’s standing in the world community.”

These are all epithets thrown at Obama as Dr. El-Ayouty mentioned. For Obama, first black President in the entire US history has always opposed the war in Iraq that his predecessor got engaged in by choice. Since his first few days Obama evolved his peace approach into a coherent theory, and once theory is put into practice, then it becomes a doctrine, Dr. El-Ayouty explained.

One of the signals that the Obama doctrine on the Middle East conflicts is working, is the deal with Iran’s nuclear portfolio reached in July 2015. And Dr. El-Ayouty expects it to continue under a president from the democrats beyond Obama’s presidency.

Israel has invested so much in getting the Iran deal off the table, yet, it lost. Now Israel is trying to get compensated for the Iran deal by establishing a mutual defense pact with the US, which means that an attack, real or fabricated, on Israel would be a direct attack on the US. This is not appreciated or in anyway approved by the US, and America is committed not to return to war again anywhere throughout the Middle East.

“ Under the Obama doctrine, American troops have returned home. Leaving only technologists to operate their drones and to train whomever they can find around in Sunni Iraq and Sunni Syria to battle ISIS.” Dr. El-Ayouty said.

This is definitely one of the successes of Obama and many American citizens do appreciate that troops have returned home. Some analysts are looking at the region with concern since Russia has started to lead and head the strikes on ISIS as well as increasing its military footprint throughout the Middle East. While the US is struggling to find native recruits to fight ISIS without also battling Assad.

Dr. El-Ayouty has also shared China’s emerging power that has been observed over the past period, especially the Chinese celebration that took place this past August in Tiananmen Square,

“Real awesome hardware being reviewed by President Xi in a world message that say: Don’t mess with China!” – Dr. El-Ayouty

In addition to Russia’s military footprint, currently Russia is opening new mosques in Moscow and elsewhere and expanding its relations with Iran, Iraq and Syria, as well as the strong relation building with the New Egypt and posing it as a new strong state.

Dr. El-Ayouty explained that the Obama doctrine on Middle East conflicts was born during the Libyan Arab Spring and reached its maturity during the Syrian Arab Spring.

2 And that the first chapter of the doctrine is within its context of disengagement from war and went by a deceptive name ‘leading from behind’ in March 2011. The entire world could see the Arab leaders fall one after the other; Ben Ali, Mubarak and Qaddafi who were previously cuddled by Washington. Also, Saleh in Yemen was losing ground, Syria was falling a part and Maliki in Iraq was refusing to sign with America a status of forces agreement.

“If you wish to build a line connecting the various stages by which the Obama doctrine has matured, I suggest that you do it mentally this way: from war, to military withdrawals, to the use of isolation tactics on the adversary, to the imposition of sanctions, to a dialogue on specific issues.” Dr. El-Ayouty said after explaining the financial burden and the lives lost of US citizens during those wars that don’t show results after many years within the Middle East. He also added that Obama is willing to meet Putin and even to go to Tehran one day, all to protect his doctrine.

Note worth mentioning that Obama sees his doctrine forcing the Kurds and Saudis to build their own forces and not to rely on ‘mother America’ as Dr. El-Ayouty explained. And defeating ISIS and other similar groups has to come from within the area directly threatened.

Dr. El-Ayouty concluded by sharing a conversation he had before the session with a professor of law at Fordham Law, New York City when he asked him about the title “The Obama Doctrine on the Middle East Conflicts” and Dr. El-Ayouty replied, “I have made the term up” from his daily observations over the Obama’s presidency the past seven years and analyzed it and then sharing it with the crowd that was present during the public lecture.

For the full video of Dr. El-Ayouty’s speech and the Q&A, please click here.

For Dr. El-Ayouty’s written speech, please click here.

The CV of Dr. El-Ayouty is also attached.

Also, you can check Dr. El-Ayouty’s most recent book; "The Transformation of Egypt Through Revolution : Issue Analysis From the Fall of Mubarak to the Rise of El- Sisi" available for download at this link: http://www.createspace.com/5729103