Barack Obama Enjoys a Six-Point Lead Over Mitt Romney in Wisconsin, but Voters in Both

Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times Poll For release: Wednesday, August 8, 2012 3:00 AM EDT

Battleground Polls: Colorado, Virginia, and Wisconsin July 31- August 6, 2012

Polls in three key presidential battleground states now show some advantages for each candidate: President Barack Obama has a six-point lead over Republican Mitt Romney among Wisconsin’s likely voters and a narrower four-point edge in Virginia, while Romney now has a five-point edge among likely voters in Colorado.

 Colorado: Romney is seen as better able to manage the economy, and voters think his plans are more likely than Obama’s to help them financially. In a reversal from 2008, Romney is leading among whites – whom Obama won narrowly in 2008. White college graduates, whom Obama carried by 14 points in 2008, are now divided, as are independents. Men and voters over 35 are behind Romney, while the President has strong support from Colorado’s women and Hispanic voters.

 Virginia: Obama is helped by strong support from women and black voters, and he is much more likely than Romney to be seen as caring about voters’ problems. Romney keeps the race close with support from independents and a large lead among whites, especially non-college educated whites.

 Wisconsin: Obama has the backing of women and voters in union households in a state that he carried easily in 2008. More see him rather than Romney as caring about them, and the President has higher favorable and job approval ratings in Wisconsin than in Colorado or Virginia.

 In all three states, more voters are optimistic about their state’s economy than about the nation’s economy.

Here is where the race now stands in each state.

2012 Vote for President (Among likely voters) Colorado Virginia Wisconsin Obama 45% 49% 51% Romney 50 45 45

Colorado

An important part of Obama’s Colorado coalition from 2008 – college-educated white voters – are in play this year. Four years ago these white college graduates voted for Barack Obama over John McCain by 56% to 42%; now, they give Romney a small 3-point lead, within the margin of error.

1 White voters overall, and particularly those without a college degree, support Romney in this poll. In the 2008 election, the President won white voters by 50% to 48%, although he lost to John McCain among those with no college degree.

There are age and gender gaps: men favor Mitt Romney over Barack Obama by 17 points, while women favor President Obama over Romney by 8 points. Independents are divided. A majority of voters under 35 support Barack Obama, while Mitt Romney leads among those age 36 and over.

Two thirds of Hispanic likely voters - who make up about one in ten likely voters in the state – support the President.

2012 Vote for President - Colorado (Among likely voters) Obama Romney All 45% 50

Men 39% 56 Women 51% 43

Age 18-35 55% 36 Age 36-64 46% 50 Age 65+ 40% 55

Republicans 5% 92 Democrats 94% 4 Independents 45% 47

Whites 41% 54 White, college degree 46% 49 White, no college degree 37% 58

Hispanics 68% 28

Virginia

Virginia voters also exhibit a significant gender gap: the President leads by 14 points among Virginia’s women, and trails by 5 points among men. In 2008 he won both men and women here.

There are sizeable age differences in the Old Dominion too: President Obama leads among voters under 64, while Mitt Romney wins among those 65 and older. Romney has a seven point lead among independents in Virginia, and leads by seven points among military families as well. White voters – especially those without a college degree – support Romney, while black voters strongly favor the President.

2 2012 Vote for President - Virginia (Among likely voters) Obama Romney All 49% 45

Men 45% 50 Women 54% 40

Age 18-35 58% 37 Age 36-64 49% 44 Age 65+ 42% 52

Republicans 5% 93 Democrats 97% 2 Independents 43% 50

Whites 38% 57 White, college degree 48% 48 White, no college degree 31% 63 Blacks 93% 1

Military Households 43% 50

Wisconsin

In Wisconsin, Romney has a 10-point lead among men, which would represent a big swing from 2008 when President Obama won them by seven points. However, Barack Obama has a very strong 23 point lead among women.

Union households, who make up a quarter of likely Wisconsin voters, support President Obama by nearly two-to-one.

Independent voters are divided, as are white voters. President Obama does well among Wisconsin’s white voters with college degrees, but Romney holds an edge among those without a degree. In 2008 those voters went for President Obama, 52%-47%.

Unlike in Colorado and Virginia, the President runs even among voters over 65 in Wisconsin (as he did in 2008).

2012 Vote for President - Wisconsin (Among likely voters) Obama Romney All 51% 45

Men 43% 53 Women 59% 36

Age 18-35 58% 37 Age 36-64 50% 46 Age 65+ 48% 48

3 2012 Vote for President - Wisconsin (Among likely voters) Obama Romney Republicans 4% 94 Democrats 94% 4 Independents 48% 47

Whites 49% 47 White, college degree 57% 37 White, no college degree 46% 51

Union households 61% 36

Strength of Support

In all three states, majorities of the President’s supporters say they strongly favor him. Mitt Romney’s strongest support comes in Colorado, where 51% of his voters say so. About a fifth of Romney’s support comes from a dislike of President Obama.

Strength of Support (Among likely voters) Colorado Virginia Wisconsin Obama Romney Obama Romney Obama Romney Voters Voters Voters Voters Voters Voters Strongly favor 62% 51% 68% 40% 64% 42% Have reservations 30 27 25 36 30 35 Dislike other candidate 7 21 7 22 6 21

There is a little room for movement in the race in all three states, but not much. About nine in 10 voters in each of the three states say their mind is made up.

Views of the Candidates

President Obama continues to lead Mitt Romney as the candidate who cares: majorities of voters in each of these three states say President Obama cares about their needs and problems. Opinions of Mitt Romney on this are more mixed: in Colorado voters are divided, while more voters in Virginia and Wisconsin think Mitt Romney does not care about their needs and problems. Cares About Your Needs and Problems? (Among likely voters) Obama Romney CO VA WI CO VA WI Yes 52% 59% 57% 47% 44% 41% No 44 37 40 46 48 51

Overall views of the candidates reflect the state of the race: in Colorado, Romney is seen marginally favorably while Barack Obama is seen slightly unfavorably. In Wisconsin and Virginia, more than half view him favorably, while views of Romney are mixed.

4 Views of the Candidates (Among likely voters) Barack Obama Mitt Romney CO VA WI CO VA WI Favorable 46% 50% 53% 47% 40% 41% Unfavorable 50 46 44 42 44 43

Wisconsin is the only one of the three states where a majority approves of President Obama’s job performance so far. In Colorado, where he is trailing Romney, a majority disapproves.

President Obama’s Job Rating (Among likely voters) CO VA WI Approve 44% 47% 51% Disapprove 53 49 46

The Economy and Other Issues

Voters in all three states – and especially in Colorado - are more apt to say that the President’s economic policies will hurt them financially rather than help them.

Assessments of Mitt Romney’s policies are a little more positive; in Virginia and Wisconsin about as many voters think his policies would help them financially as hurt them, while in Colorado slightly more think his policies would help them.

Impact of Candidate Policies on Your Financial Situation (Among likely voters) Barack Obama Mitt Romney CO VA WI CO VA WI Help 22% 26% 22% 34% 28% 28% Hurt 43 39 35 30 30 31 No difference 33 34 41 32 37 37

Evaluations of Barack Obama’s economic policies are mixed. More than half of voters in Virginia and Wisconsin think Barack Obama’s economic policies are either currently improving the nation’s economy or will do so if given more time, while half of voters in Colorado think his policies will never improve the economy.

Effect of Barack Obama’s Policies on the Economy (Among likely voters) CO VA WI Improving it now 21% 24% 23% Will improve it if given more time 26 29 33 Will never improve it 51 46 42

Voters are not necessarily enthusiastic about Mitt Romney’s past experience in the private sector. In Wisconsin and Virginia, more think Romney’s business background was too focused on making profits instead of creating jobs. In Colorado, more voters think his background was the right kind of experience to create jobs.

5 Mitt Romney’s Business Experience (Among likely voters) CO VA WI Right experience for creating jobs 48% 43% 43% Too focused on profits 42 47 48

National Vs. State Economies

While voters are generally negative about the national economic outlook, they are somewhat more optimistic about the prospects for their own states. In all three places, more voters say their own state’s economy is getting better than say so about the national economy.

Is the Economy Getting….? (Among likely voters) Colorado Virginia Wisconsin National State National State National State Better 26% 33% 24% 30% 25% 30% Worse 42 24 38 16 36 29 The same 31 42 36 51 38 40

The economy is the most important issue to likely voters in each of these battleground states, with health care a distant second.

In Colorado voters give Mitt Romney a clear edge on handling the economy, while voters in Wisconsin and Virginia are more closely divided. Barack Obama has the edge on handling the issue of health care in all three states. Colorado’s voters think Mitt Romney would do a better job on national security; in Virginia and Wisconsin more think Barack Obama would do better.

Who Would do a Better Job on…? (Among likely voters) Colorado Virginia Wisconsin Obama Romney Obama Romney Obama Romney The economy 41% 51 45% 47 47% 46 Health care 47% 45 49% 42 49% 43 National security 41% 50 48% 43 53% 39

Campaign Ads

Sizeable majorities of voters in these states say they have seen television ads for both candidates – particularly in Colorado and Virginia – and more voters say those ads have mostly attacked the other candidate.

Television Campaign Ads (Among likely voters) Barack Obama Ads Mitt Romney Ads CO VA WI CO VA WI Yes/explained stands 22% 28% 32% 22% 21% 20% Yes/attacked opponent 58 52 41 58 57 48 Haven’t seen ads 8 9 18 9 10 20

6 About eight in 10 say campaign ads will be of little importance in their vote for president, including more than six in 10 in each state who say television campaign ads will not be important at all.

The Bush Tax Cuts

Most voters in Colorado, Virginia, and Wisconsin support raising taxes on households earning more than $250,000 a year.

Raise Income Taxes on $250K Households (Among likely voters) CO VA WI Support 56% 59% 66% Oppose 40 36 30

Releasing Personal Income Taxes

About half in each state say candidates should release several years of tax returns. One in five thinks they should release only one or two years, while a quarter think they shouldn’t release any of their tax returns.

How Many Years of Tax Returns Should Presidential Candidates Release? (Among likely voters) CO VA WI Several years 48% 52% 52% One or two years 21 19 18 Don't release 26 23 26

Rating the Governors

The governors of all three battleground states are enjoying wide support from likely voters. Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper receives the highest approval rating from his constituents, with 66%. After surviving a recent recall election, 52% of Wisconsin’s likely voters approve of the job Governor Scott Walker is doing, and 52% approve of Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell’s job performance.

Rating of Governors (Among likely voters) Approve Disapprove John Hickenlooper (D) - Colorado 66% 18 Bob McDonnell (R) - Virginia 52% 29 Scott Walker (R) - Wisconsin 52% 44

Senate Races in Virginia and Wisconsin

In Virginia, the race between two former governors of that state – Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican George Allen – is neck and neck, with Kaine getting 48% of the vote and Allen 46%.

7 2012 Virginia Senate Race (Among likely voters) Tim Kaine (D) 48% George Allen (R) 46

In Wisconsin, where the Republican nominee hasn’t been decided yet, Democratic Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin holds a strong twelve-point lead against one potential opponent – State Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald – while she holds a slim three point edge over former Congressman Mark Neumann and a four point lead over businessman Eric Hovde. The race is tied in a match up against former Governor Tommy Thompson.

2012 Wisconsin Senate Race (Among likely voters) Tammy Baldwin (D) 51% Jeff Fitzgerald (R) 39

Tammy Baldwin (D) 48% Mark Neumann (R) 45

Tammy Baldwin (D) 47% Eric Hovde (R) 43

Tammy Baldwin (D) 47% Tommy Thompson (R) 47 ------This poll was conducted by telephone from Quinnipiac University’s interviewing facility July 31-August 6, 2012. The number of likely voters interviewed in each state is 1,463 in Colorado, 1,412 in Virginia and 1,428 in Wisconsin. In all three states, phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land- line and cell phones. The error due to sampling for results based on the sample in each state could be plus or minus three percentage points in Colorado, Virginia, and in Wisconsin. The error for subgroups may be higher. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Poll

8 QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY/CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL Colorado, Virginia, and Wisconsin July 31-August 6, 2012

>attn< How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for President, a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?

** TOTAL LIKELY VOTERS ** CO VA WI A lot 60% 59% 54% Some 28 28 32 Only a little 9 11 11 None at all 3 2 3 DK/NA - - -

1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or Romney? (Table includes leaners)

CO VA WI Obama 45 49 51 Romney 50 45 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - DK/NA 4 5 4

1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?

** TOTAL LIKELY VOTERS WHO CHOSE A CANDIDATE ** CO VA WI Mind made up 91% 90% 90% Might change 8 9 9 DK/NA 1 1 1

1b. (If Obama q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?

** AMONG OBAMA VOTERS ** CO VA WI Mind made up 88% 90% 90% Might change 11 9 10 DK/NA 1 1 -

1c. (If Romney q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?

** AMONG ROMNEY VOTERS ** CO VA WI Mind made up 93% 90% 89% Might change 6 8 8 DK/NA 1 1 2

9 2. Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? ** TOTAL LIKELY VOTERS ** CO VA WI Favorable 47% 40% 41% Unfavorable 42 44 43 Hvn't hrd enough 9 13 14 REFUSED 2 3 2

3. Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

CO VA WI Favorable 46% 50% 53% Unfavorable 50 46 44 Hvn't hrd enough 1 2 2 REFUSED 2 2 2

4a. (If Obama q1) Would you describe your support for Barack Obama as strongly favoring him, or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support him because you dislike Mitt Romney?

** AMONG OBAMA VOTERS ** CO VA WI Strongly favor 62% 68% 64% Like/Reservations 30 25 30 Dislike Romney 7 7 6 DK/NA 1 1 -

4b. (If Romney q1) Would you describe your support for Mitt Romney as strongly favoring him, or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support him because you dislike Barack Obama?

** AMONG ROMNEY VOTERS ** CO VA WI Strongly favor 51% 40% 42% Like/Reservations 27 36 35 Dislike Obama 21 22 21 DK/NA 2 2 1

5. If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Tim Kaine the Democrat and George Allen the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Allen or Kaine?

** TOTAL LIKELY VOTERS ** VA Kain 48% Allen 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - DK/NA 6

10 5a. If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Tammy Baldwin the Democrat and Tommy Thompson the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Baldwin or Thompson? (Table includes leaners)

** TOTAL LIKELY VOTERS ** WI Baldwin 47% Thompson 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 DK/NA 5

5b. If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Tammy Baldwin the Democrat and Eric Hovde the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Baldwin or Hovde? (Table includes leaners)

WI Baldwin 47% Hovde 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 DK/NA 8

5c. If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Tammy Baldwin the Democrat and Mark Neumann the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Baldwin or Neumann? (Table includes leaners)

WI Baldwin 48% Neumann 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 DK/NA 6

5d. If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Tammy Baldwin the Democrat and Jeff Fitzgerald the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Baldwin or Fitzgerald? (Table includes leaners)

WI Baldwin 51% Fitzgerald 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - DK/NA 9

6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Hickenlooper(CO)/Bob McDonnell(VA)/Scott Walker(WI) is handling his job as Governor?

CO VA WI Approve 66% 52% 52% Disapprove 18 29 44 DK/NA 17 20 4

11 7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

** TOTAL LIKELY VOTERS ** CO VA WI Approve 44% 47% 51% Disapprove 53 49 46 DK/NA 3 4 3

8. In deciding who you would like to see elected President this year, which one of the following issues will be most important to you, national security, the economy, health care, the budget deficit, taxes, immigration, or something else?

CO VA WI National security 4% 4% 3% The economy 48 49 47 Health care 19 19 24 The budget deficit 11 10 13 Taxes 4 6 3 Immigration 3 2 2 Something else 8 7 7 DK/NA 3 2 1

9. Compared to past presidential elections, how would you describe your level of enthusiasm about voting in this year's presidential election; are you more enthusiastic than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual?

CO VA WI More 35% 32% 32% Less 16 18 15 About the same 48 48 52 DK/NA - 1 1

10. Do you think the nation's economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?

CO VA WI Better 26% 24% 25% Worse 42 38 36 The same 31 36 38 DK/NA 1 2 1

11. Do you think (Colorado/Virginia/Wisconsin)'s economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?

CO VA WI Better 33% 30% 30% Worse 24 16 29 The same 42 51 40 DK/NA 2 3 2

12. Would you say that Barack Obama cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?

CO VA WI Yes 52% 59% 57% No 44 37 40

12 DK/NA 3 4 3

13. Would you say that Mitt Romney cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?

** TOTAL LIKELY VOTERS ** CO VA WI Yes 47% 44% 41% No 46 48 51 DK/NA 7 8 8

14. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - the economy, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

CO VA WI Obama 41% 45% 47% Romney 51 47 46 DK/NA 8 8 7

15. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - health care, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

16. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - national security, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

17. If Barack Obama is reelected, do you think his economic policies would help your personal financial situation, hurt your personal financial situation, or won't make a difference?

CO VA WI Help 22% 26% 22% Hurt 43 39 35 No difference 33 34 41 DK/NA 2 1 2

18. If Mitt Romney is elected, do you think his economic policies would help your personal financial situation, hurt your personal financial situation, or won't make a difference?

CO VA WI Help 34% 28% 28% Hurt 30 30 31 No difference 32 37 37 DK/NA 4 5 4

13 19. From what you have read or heard, does Mitt Romney have the right kind of business experience to get the economy creating jobs again or is Romney's kind of business experience too focused on making profits?

** TOTAL LIKELY VOTERS ** CO VA WI Right experience 48% 43% 43% Focused on profits 42 47 48 DK/NA 10 10 9

20. Which comes closest to your view of Barack Obama's economic policies, A) They are improving the economy now, and will probably continue to do so, OR B) They have not improved the economy yet, but will if given more time, OR C) They are not improving the economy and probably never will.

CO VA WI A)Improving now 21% 24% 23% B)Will improve 26 29 33 C)Will never improve 51 46 42 ECONOMY WORSE(VOL) 1 - - DK/NA 1 1 1

21. Do you think presidential candidates should publicly release several years of tax returns, or is releasing only one or two years of tax returns necessary, or don't you think it is necessary for presidential candidates to release any of their tax returns?

CO VA WI Several years 48% 52% 52% One or two years 21 19 18 Not necessary 26 23 26 DK/NA 4 6 3

22. In order to reduce the federal budget deficit, do you support or oppose raising income taxes on households making more than $250,000 per year?

CO VA WI Support 56% 59% 66% Oppose 40 36 30 DK/NA 4 5 4

23. How important will television campaign ads be to your vote for President this year, very important, somewhat important, not so important, or not important at all?

CO VA WI Very important 5% 7% 6% Smwht important 11 13 12 Not so important 17 17 22 Not important at all 67 62 60 DK/NA - 1 -

14 24. Have you seen any commercials on television for Mitt Romney, or not? IF YES: Did most of Mitt Romney's television commercials spend more time explaining what Mitt Romney stands for, or did they spend more time attacking Barack Obama?

** TOTAL LIKELY VOTERS ** CO VA WI Yes/Explained 22% 21% 20% Yes/Attacked Obama 58 57 48 No/Haven't seen 9 10 20 DK/NA 11 12 12

25. Have you seen any commercials on television for Barack Obama, or not? IF YES: Did most of Barack Obama's television commercials spend more time explaining what Barack Obama stands for, or did they spend more time attacking Mitt Romney?

CO VA WI Yes/Explained 22% 28% 32% Yes/Attacked Romney 58 52 41 No/Haven't seen 8 9 18 DK/NA 12 11 9

PARTY IDENTIFICATION (Weighted) Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or what?

CO VA WI Republican 32% 23% 27% Democrat 27 30 34 Independent 37 40 33 Other 3 6 5 DK/NA 1 2 1

Sample Sizes (Unweighted) ** TOTAL LIKELY VOTERS ** CO VA WI Unweighted Total 1463 1412 1428 MoE (+/-%) 3 pts 3 pts 3 pts