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Assessing and Anticipating Threats to US Security Interests

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Assessing and Anticipating Threats to US Security Interests WhiteThe$“New”$Face$of$Transna1onal$ Paper on Assessing and Anticipating Crime$Organiza1ons$(TCOs):$A$Threats to US Security Interests A Biogeopoli1cal$perspec1ve$and$-Psycho-Social Science Approach for Understanding theImplica1ons$to$US$Na1onal$Security$ Emergence of and Mitigating Violence and Terrorism A Strategic Multi-Layer (SMA) Periodic Publication February$2013$$March 2016 ContributingContribu)ng+Authors: Authors: $GEN Joseph Votel (Commander USSOCOM), Ms. Sarah Canna (NSI, Inc.Mr.$Dave$Hulsey,$USSOCOM;$Col$Glen$Butler,$USNORTHCOM;$Chris$), Dr. William Casebeer (Lockheed Martin), Ms. Celeste Chen (GeorgetownIsham,$David$ University),Hallstrom Dr.,$ DianeTom$Wood,$JITAF$West,$PACOM;$Ms.$Renee$ DiEuliis (NDU), Dr. Dana P. Eyre (SoSA)Novakoff, Ms. Laurie,$USSOUTHCOM;$Mr.$Bob$Greenway,$ Fenstermacher (AFRL), Dr. James GiordanoUSCENTCOM;$ (Georgetown BG$ Mark$ UnivScrabaersity),,$ Mr.$Dr. Jerri Todd$ LynnTrumpold Hogg (Fielding,$ USEUCOM;$ Graduate Ms.$ University), Lauren$ Burns,$ Dr. Larry Mr.$ KuznarJoseph$Keefe,$Mr.$James$Kurtz,$Col$Tracy$King,$USMC;$William$Simpkins,$Christopher$ (IPFW & NSI), Dr. Gina Ligon (UNO), LTC Rafael Linera (USASOC), SFC MatthewPloszaj,$ MartinIDA;$Dr.$Valerie$ (USASOC),Si^erle Dr. Clark,$Georgia$Tech;$Dr.$Rodrigo$Nieto$Gomez,$NPS;$Dr.$Regan$ McCauley (Bryn Mawr), Mr. Michael McRoberts (DepartmentDamron of,$ USEUCOM;$Maj$David$Blair,$PhD$Candidate,$Georgetown$University;$Dr.$Mary$Zalensy,$Army$ Defense), Dr. Christophe Morin (Fielding Graduate University), Mr. Brad Morrison (UBC), Dr. Strategic$Studies$Group;$Dr.$Vesna$Markovic,$University$of$New$Haven;$Dr.$Amy$Pate,$Ms.$ Sophia Moskalenko (Bryn Mawr), CPT Robby Otwell (USASOC), Dr. Paul Rogers (Bradford Mila$ Johns,$ Mr.$ Gary$ Ackerman,$ Ms.$ McKenzie$ O’Brien,$ University$ of$ Maryland/START$ University), Dr. Victoria L. Romero (IST Research), MAJ Gregory Seese (USASOC), Dr. Pamela Program$ Rutledge$ (Fielding Graduate University), Dr. Jason Spitaletta (JS/J7 & JHU/APL), MAJ Shawn StangleEditors:+ (USASOC),Mr.$Ben$Riley$(OSD)$and$Dr.$Kathleen$Kiernan$(Kiernan$Group$Holdings)$ Dr. Peter Suedfeld (UBC), Dr. Nicholas D. Wright (University of Birmingham$ & CEIP), Dr. Rachel Wurzman (University of Pennsylvania). A+Strategic+Mul)8Layer+Assessment+(SMA)+Period+Publica)on$ Executive$ Editor: Dr. James Giordano (Georgetown University) Inte$$ gration EditorThis+white+volume+represents+the+views+and+opinions+of+the+contribu)ng+authors.++s: Mr. Sam Rhem (SRC) and Mr. George Popp (NSI) + This+report+does+not+represent+official+USG+or+Command+policy+or+posi)on+ + This white paper represents the views and opinions of the contributing authors. It does not represent official USG policy or position. This white paper is approved for public release with unlimited distribution. This publication is cleared for public release Contents Foreword ..................................................................................................................................................... 1 Executive Summary: Dr. James Giordano, Georgetown University ............................................................. 2 Background ................................................................................................................................................ 12 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................... 13 The Bio-Psychosocial Approach: Dr. James Giordano and Celeste Chen, MS(c), Georgetown University, Washington DC ...................................................................................................................................... 13 A Review Of SMA Bio-Psycho-Social Investigations: Sarah Canna, NSI ................................................. 24 Biological Perspectives on Behavior .......................................................................................................... 30 The Role Of Emotions In Human Behavior—Perspectives From Neuroscience And Cognitive Psychology: Drs. Diane DiEuliis, William Casebeer, and James Giordano ............................................. 30 Psychological Perspectives on Behavior .................................................................................................... 37 How ISIL Recruitment Tactics Target The Adolescent Brain: Victoria L. Romero, IST Research ............ 37 Psychological Bases Of Aggression: The Role Of The Moral Emotions In Radicalization: Dr. Jason Spitaletta (Maj, USMCR), The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory & Joint Staff J7 .. 43 Emotional Reactions To Uncertainty Versus Ambiguity: Dr. Jason Spitaletta (Maj, USMCR), The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory & Joint Staff J7 ............................................................ 51 Psychological Effects Of Terror: Dr. Jason Spitaletta (Maj, USMCR), The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory & Joint Staff J7 ........................................................................................... 56 Entrepreneurs Of Fear—The Emotional Impact Of Terrorism On Target Audiences: Dr. Nicholas D. Wright, University of Birmingham, UK, and Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington DC .......................................................................................................................................................... 62 Fear And Anger Elicited By Terrorist Attack: The Power Of Jujitsu Politics: Drs. Clark McCauley and Sophia Moskalenko, Bryn Mawr College ............................................................................................... 68 Social Perspectives On Behavior ................................................................................................................ 72 Security Trends And Their Consequences: Dr. Paul Rogers, Bradford University, and Dr. Dana P. Eyre, SoSA Corp .............................................................................................................................................. 72 Emotions And Behavior: Running Hot And Cold, Morally Speaking, And Impacts on Influence Activity to Counter Daesh: Dr. William D. Casebeer (USAF, Ret), Lockheed Martin Corporation ...................... 77 Understanding The Social Context: Following Social And Narrative Change Via Discourse And Thematic Analysis Surrounding Daesh In The Middle East: Dr. Lawrence A. Kuznar, Indiana University–Purdue University, Fort Wayne, and NSI, Inc. .................................................................................................. 104 Organizational Determinants Of Aggression: From Putin To al-Baghdadi: Dr. Gina Scott Ligon, University of Nebraska Omaha, and Michael McRoberts, Department of Defense ............................ 110 Predicting Hostility .................................................................................................................................. 121 This publication is cleared for public release The “emic” Perspective For Forecasting Threat: Ms. Laurie Fenstermacher, Air Force Research Laboratory ........................................................................................................................................... 121 Predicting And Reducing Hostility: Insights From Cognitive Models And Cognitive Behavioral Therapy: Drs. Rachel Wurzman, University of Pennsylvania, and William D. Casebeer, (US Air Force, Ret.), Lockheed Martin .................................................................................................................................. 128 Si Vis Pacem, Para Bellum: Applying Thematic Content Analysis To Anticipating Threats To US Security: Drs. Bradford H. Morrison and Peter Suedfeld, University of British Columbia .................................. 146 Operational Perspectives ......................................................................................................................... 150 Bridging Research And Practice: Using Proactive Narratives: Drs. Pamela Rutledge and Jerri Lynn Hogg, Fielding Graduate University ............................................................................................................... 150 The Urgency To Shift Paradigm On The War Against ISIS In The Narrative Space: Dr. Christophe Morin, Fielding Graduate University ............................................................................................................... 159 Winning The Battle In Narrative Space Using Applied Neuroscience—Enhancing And Modernizing The PSYOP Process: SFC Matthew Martin, CPT Robby Otwell, MAJ Gregory Seese, MAJ Shawn Stangle, LTC Rafael Linera, USASOC ......................................................................................................................... 166 Additional Footnotes/References ............................................................................................................ 173 This publication is cleared for public release Foreword The trends in the strategic environment are speeding the redistribution of power across a range of actors around the globe. As power shifts, we frequently see competition emerge as empowered actors attempt to expand their spheres of influence, while others attempt to preserve the status quo. Empowered actors naturally seek to seize new privilege commensurate with their elevated power status – this is not new. What is new is that increasingly, populations are becoming connected through modern communications technology and are demanding change from their respective governments on a range
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