Disclaimer: Commodity Trading and Other Speculative/ Hedging Investment Practices Involve

Monday, November 14, 2011

Weather & News U.S. Weather: Generally, the predicted 2-week weather forecast has not changed much since mid-week last week. As a recap: Ohio/ Indiana: rain will begin to move through Ohio and Indiana today before settling in the Ohio River Valley on Tuesday and Wednesday. Precipitation amounts will stall field-work. Amounts will vary from 1.00 Inches to 2.50 Inches. Another event is predicted for mid week next week, and yet another in two weeks- flood potential is rising and is likely. Delta/ Tennessee River Basin: These areas will see the Ohio River Valley rain as well on each system. Southeast: as the rain systems from the Delta/TN/OH valley move east, they will lose moisture leaving S.Eastern states needing rain. US Hard Red Wheat: May receive some moisture this week, and there is a possible system next week- likelihood weak. Northern Plains: received light snow this morning. A potential for greater snow-fall this weekend. Much needed rain predicted for later this week. Southwest: Dry and continuing dry. Argentina: Received needed rain over the weekend in NW and N.- Central summer-crop areas. All major crop areas in Argentina now sit fairly well. Brazil: received rain over the weekend leaving crop areas in a “fine” condition. Australia: All ready into harvest and seeing good harvest weather. Northern India: Needs rain for crop establishment. Central and eastern Europe, Ukraine and south-central Russia: Dry for the next week. Rain/ snow will come mid-week next week- much too late to impact fall plantings. China: Wet

 COFCO says China will import 58.5 mmt of Soybeans in 2011/12. At the same conference the head trader for No- ble Trading said he expected China to import 61 mmt of Soybeans in 2011/12 as Soybean meal demand will rise 8%.  Chinese government official posted comments on a financial web site saying China’s grain supply will remain very tight and the supply situation is very grim due to rising population and shrinking farmland.  Argentina’s Rosario Grain Exchange issued an estimate for the 2011/12 Soybean crop pegging it at 49.5 mmt vs. last year’s crop of 50.3 mmt. The exchange estimated Corn production at 26.0 mmt vs. last year’s crop of 21.4 mmt. They lowered their estimate for 2011/12 Wheat production to 12.4 mmt vs. their previous estimate of 12.5 mmt.  NOPA Oct #’s: Soybean Crush: 141.18 mln bu.; expected 143.0 mln bu.Soybean Oil Stocks: 1.876 bln lbs.; expected 1.95 bln lbsSoybean Meal Exports: 578,146 T; prior month 300,347 T

Technical & Fundamental Analysis

Disclaimer: Commodity trading and other speculative/ hedging investment practices involve substantial risk of loss. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY IN- DICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS when utilizing the commodities markets. Gulke Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts that are the same or that are different to the positions and to the contracts referred to herein. This material and any views expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an endorsement or inducement to invest. Prices used in trade recommendations are already reflective of known information. 2 Monday, November 14, 2011

Gulke Group Regional Conferences Chicago (Dec 1 & 2), Bowling Green (Dec 5-7) and Fargo (Dec 7- 9): We are continuing our Gulke Group Financial and Marketing workshops this fall. Now that the crops are in the bin, it’s time to re-evaluate your financials and marketing plans for 2012 and beyond. The Executive Program for Producers (TEPP) was designed to help you do just that. At the conferences we will go through the marketing outlook for 2012, the fundamentals driving market prices, a more indepth session on Technical Analysis (using the Tech Book), how to evaluate your farm from a financial perspective, and how to put together a successful business/marketing strategy for 2012 and beyond. To get signed up, just click on the TEPP link on the Gulke Group website, or contact Jeff at 480-285-4745. Comments Corn basis remains strong with board inverted- old versus new crop with CZ12 roughly 64 cents less than CZ11 and about $1.25 less than CZ11 was trading last May when it was important to keep planting enough corn . Supply feels tight but export demand lacking with odds of getting down to the 625 ending stocks level rather slim. Conversely with rumors circulating of more imported wheat coming in the east coast for pork and broiler companies we may see an increase in wheat for feed and less corn again in the Jan 12 stocks report. In fact US wheat is still very competitive as a feed source in some areas continuing as much longer than normal years. Both cattle and hog prices are higher than cost of gains which usually keeps feed usage stable, however these may not be normal times. December futures have traded in a 30 cent range for the past month reflecting how volatility has nearly vanished with more regulation, the MFG fiasco all setting the stage for less general involvement and pure liquidation of positions being the focus. Should Dec 11 or Mar 12 break down from its trading range more downside is likely. Soybeans continue in a choppy range with a downward bias awaiting the Chinese to come back. The USDA showed demand dropping in the USDA report last week. SX12 is trading at a premium to SX11 helping to keep the planters rolling in S America and insure more acres as the world believes China will continue to increase imports year over year. Nov 12 soybeans are trading about a $1.50 lower than the $13.50 mid-range for SX11 last spring that invited late planting on PP acres. So with soybean gross down about $75 and corn gross about $200 and planting decisions were made today, soybeans likely win out over corn for 2012. With both corn and soybeans trading well less than last year’s planting time when decisions are made, it indicates that with 7 of the 10 mil-ac of PP last year likely to come into production in the US and perhaps 6- 10 mil more in Canada, the market isn’t enamored by talk of a La Nina repeat. No change in advice for grains or livestock pending any mid-day changes. The US $ bounced off the area where it began the last uptrend—so for those who wish to catch-up, it is giving an opportunity to do so. Energies: While crude has been rising on speculation that Iran posses a threat, actual price of RBOB (unleaded gasoline) has been trending lower at the pumps as has HO (diesel) but not as much. Note the charts above, especially that crude has merely rallied to the bottom side of the broken uptrend. I am not interested yet to lock in prices for spring needs as $100 crude is not acceptable to the current economic environment. Markets & Recommendations ADVICE: No change in advice for grains or livestock pending any mid-day changes. The US $ bounced off the area where it began the last uptrend—so for those who wish to catch-up, it is giving an opportunity to do so. Please see charts on energies and read analysis of grains in comments sections.

Outside Markets: Dow +10, Dollar +34, Crude -.71, Nat Gas -.083, Hogs No trade overnight Cattle No trade overnight , Sugar +.21, Cotton -.87, Gold -4.20 Yesterday’s Trades: No new trades.

CORN: 2011: Hedged 100% (55% cash, 45% futures, short 20% CZ 650 calls, long Nov wk2 660 calls, sold CH 660 calls). 2012: hedged 55% (55% in futures, long Nov wk2 660 calls). END USERS: no coverage. Today:

Disclaimer: Commodity trading and other speculative/ hedging investment practices involve substantial risk of loss. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY IN- DICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS when utilizing the commodities markets. Gulke Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts that are the same or that are different to the positions and to the contracts referred to herein. This material and any views expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an endorsement or inducement to invest. Prices used in trade recommendations are already reflective of known information. 3 Monday, November 14, 2011 SOYBEANS: 2011: Hedged 100% (85% Cash, 15% futures, sold SN 1300 calls). 2012: Hedged 75% (15% Cash, 60% futures). End Users Meal: 2011 – no coverage. Today: WHEAT: 2011: Hedged 100% (50% cash, 50% futures). 2012: Hedged 70% (15% cash, 55% futures). Today:

LIVESTOCK – No new advice Live Cattle: 2011: Short 25% for Q4, 50% for Q1 –TODAY: Feeder Cattle: 2011: no hedges. End Users – no hedges. TODAY: Lean Hogs: 2011: 50% for Q4, 50% for Q1, 25% for Q2. – TODAY:

US$ - Long 1 DXZ at 77.50—hold for now. Cotton. The USD is higher this morning and that’s putting pressure on cotton futures. The enthusiasm from the big export sales on Thursday seems to have waned a bit, and certified stocks jump to 45K (from 37K). If support at 96.60 breaks down, we are headed lower, so that’s where we’ll hedge again. Rice. Trading higher early this morning, and due for a bit of correction, even in a down market. Lift profitable hedges, but use a sell stop at 15.10 to re-establish the position.

Disclaimer: Commodity trading and other speculative/ hedging investment practices involve substantial risk of loss. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY IN- DICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS when utilizing the commodities markets. Gulke Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts that are the same or that are different to the positions and to the contracts referred to herein. This material and any views expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an endorsement or inducement to invest. Prices used in trade recommendations are already reflective of known information. 4 Monday, November 14, 2011

Disclaimer: Commodity trading and other speculative/ hedging investment practices involve substantial risk of loss. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY IN- DICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS when utilizing the commodities markets. Gulke Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts that are the same or that are different to the positions and to the contracts referred to herein. This material and any views expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an endorsement or inducement to invest. Prices used in trade recommendations are already reflective of known information.