Table S1. Sources of Data for the Release Proxy Indicators, Assumptions and Uncertainty

Table S1. Sources of data for the release proxy indicators, assumptions and uncertainty of the data.

Proxy Description Source Assumptions Uncertainty Indicator P3 Outbound tourism to ASF-affected countries Eurostat: Data from 2007 may not holiday or reflect current situation business trips of one night or more from EU member states to Africa and Russia during 2007 (http://appsso. eurostat.ec.eur opa.eu/nui/sho w.do? dataset=tour_d em_ttw&lang= en) Georgian No data for trips to Armenia National and Azerbaijan Tourism Agency: arrivals of non-resident visitors at national borders of Georgia by country of citizenship (http://www.gn ta.ge/upload/fil e/2000- 2011_Arrivals_f oreign_traveller s_at_national_ borders_of_Ge orgia.pdf) P4 Inbound tourism from ASF-affected countries Eurostat: Data from 2007 may not arrivals to EU reflect the current situation; member states no data for arrivals from of non- Armenia, Azerbaijan and residents from Georgia; does not include Africa and arrivals staying in private Russia staying accommodation in hotels, guesthouses, etc. in 2007 (http://appsso. eurostat.ec.eur opa.eu/nui/sho w.do? dataset=tour_o cc_arnrmw&lan g=en) P5, P8 Residents from ASF-affected countries Eurostat: Data from 2009 may not people who are reflect the current situation residents of EU member states but are citizens of Russia, Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan and ASF-infected African countries 2009 (http://appsso. eurostat.ec.eur opa.eu/nui/sho w.do? dataset=migr_p op1ctz&lang=e n) ASF disease There was no OIE data on ASF for seven ASF-affected African status: OIE countries so those in north Africa (Eritrea, countries are defined as all WAHIS Disease Mali, Mauritania) were assumed to not be countries that have ever timelines 2005- infected and those in sub-Saharan Africa been infected with ASF 2012 (Equatorial Guinea, Gambia, Guinea, according to OIE WAHIS and (http://web.oie Liberia) were assumed to be infected Handistatus II databases .int/wahis/publi c.php? page=disease_t imelines) ASF disease Same as above Same as above status: OIE WAHIS List of countries by sanitary situation (http://web.oie .int/wahis/publi c.php? page=disease_s tatus_lists) ASF disease Same as above Same as above status: Handistatus II (http://web.oie .int/hs2/report. asp?lang=en 1996-2004) P7 Price of pork European Price of other pig products has similar Data from 2011 may not community: variation between countries reflect current situation 2011 annual average price of Grade E carcasses (55- 59% lean meat percentage) in Euro per 100kg (http://ec.euro pa.eu/agricultu re/markets/pig /porcs.pdf) P9 Number of ports and airports World Port The number of major ports is proportional Data from 2009 may not Index 2009: to the total number of ports for each EU reflect the current situation major ports and member state terminals (http://msi.nga. mil/NGAPortal/ MSI.portal? _nfpb=true&_p ageLabel=msi_ portal_page_62 &pubCode=001 5) Eurostat: The number of larger airports is Data from 2008 may not number of proportional to the total number of reflect the current situation airports with airports for each EU member state more than 15,000 passenger movement per year (http://appsso. eurostat.ec.eur opa.eu/nui/sho w.do? dataset=avia_if _arp&lang=en) P10 Distance to nearest ASF-affected country Shapefile of national boundaries: shortest distance in km from EU state border to nearest ASF- affected country. ASF status of Only considered affected countries outside African the EU, not Sardinia; in Africa the nearest countries ASF-affected countries based on the OIE (http://web.oie WAHIS database were Senegal, Burkina .int/wahis/publi Faso, Niger and Chad c.php? page=home) P11 Number of international border points with non- FAO Borders with all non-EU member states Navigability of water courses EU member states Geonetwork: were included except members of the is not known shapefiles of European Free Trade Association (EFTA - railways Switzerland, Lichtenstein, Norway –see (RWDB2 http://www.efta.int/) railway Lines), roads (Roads of the World VNAP0) and waterways (Perennial Water Courses (Rivers) of the World VMAP0) (http://www.fa o.org/geonetw ork/srv/en/mai n.home) were downloaded and overlaid on national boundary shapefile; counts of railway lines, perennial water courses and road crossing national boundaries with non-EU member states were created