Seminar in Global Issues s1

SEMINAR IN GLOBAL ISSUES SYRACUSE UNIVERSITY—Jan-May 2015 Dr. Jim Keagle [email protected] 202-685-2530 (wp); 703-764-0726 (hp)

COURSE DESCRIPTION (3 CREDIT HOURS): Syria and Iraq (IS, ISIS, ISIL), Ukraine—Iran-- the Affordable Care Act—-spying on the Congress and our Allies—Immigration reform—Ferguson, Garner and beyond--these issues as of late December 2014, seem poised to dominate this semester!!!!!!!! Then there is a new Congress, Republican majorities in both Houses, and the State of the Union Address in late January that will shape the months to follow and there is a looming showdown—again—over the debt ceiling and spending priorities The process and substance of international relations (IR) and international and national security are explored via an examination of global and domestic issues through the eyes of the U.S. national security community. Thus, while the focus begins with the nation-state as the principal actor in the international arena, we will pay attention to any changes to the system that are threatening the pre- eminence of the nation state—the war on terrorism and its cost being pre-eminent among them. Different paradigms that emphasize other players—non-state actors—and themes such as the clash of civilizations/cultures, How Iraq/Syria, the Ukraine, and Iran are affecting Europe and the euro-zone will also be center-stage in our discussions. Fundamentalism/Extremism/Fascism, ethnic conflict/nationalism, where the Arab Spring goes, climate change, and globalization in the international system will be relevant. Course is integrative in that all the tools and instruments of policy are considered--military, economic, political, diplomatic, technological, etc. Course is inclusive—most major issues are addressed, regardless of whether or not they fit with the traditional EAST-WEST and North Atlantic/Euro-centric focus of conventional IR theories. In fact, the emphasis is on the expanding definition of “national security” and the threats that these new (and traditional) security issues pose to the nation state—like homeland security and combating ideological support for the terrorists. . The course is less theoretical and more policy and politics heavy. I am assuming that each student has an adequate grounding in IR theory—e.g., Russett and Starr, Dougherty and Pfaltzgraff—have written two classic texts. Therefore, most of our effort will be examining systematically the global issues of the post-9/11 era and using the U.S. policymaking machinery to do so. This is a U.S. centric and Executive branch centric course. However, the role of the Congress in considering changes to how we tax and spend and in addressing the debt/deficit issues will be very important in our considerations. The war on terrorism/Iraq/Iran/Afghanistan will be addressed specifically. U.S. “management of its empire” will also be central to our studies. In this sense the course will seem to fit the mold of other IR courses. You may also if your interests take you there, write 2 of your papers on domestic issue. But above all else the following themes will influence our readings, research, and discussions:

1. President Obama insisted Afghanistan was the right war to be engaged in, and surged our military effort there. He committed to a withdrawal (transition) process from July 2011 through the end of 2014—following the December 2010 and 2012 reviews and his decision in 2011 to withdraw those 30,000 surge forces by the fall of 2012 He now faces a potential Spring offensive with a reduced US presence and no official combat role. He also is seeking with Congress to “reverse” or “redo” the specific authorizations for the use of military force in the immediate aftermath of 9/11 re Syria. Interesting backstory here. For him, the war on terror is coming to a close—must end. What about Iraq/Syria? Pakistan? Somalia? Yemen? Mali? How will Carter cut the defense budget? Can the U.S. sustain a decades’ long commitment to clear, hold and build as it begins to withdraw? VP Biden, SECDEF Carter, CJCS Dempsey and CIA Director Brennan are critical figures as we continue to balance the defense strategy with COIN initiatives to protect indigenous populations, necessary capabilities to fight a major war, and the increasingly prevalent use of UAV systems and a CT strategy. Cost will increasingly factor into these discussions as the war bill still approaches $1000B /year. Look for CT to continue to replace COIN as the centerpiece of U.S strategy (see Panetta’s speech to BENS, 20 Nov 2012).

2. Obama’s agenda is tied to the economy and his arguments about economic equality. The republicans think differently. The Spring 2015 calendar will be filled with budget politics and the interaction among the President, Congress and the American people—not just with Obama’s leadership and political standing but also with the implementation of Obama care, entitlements generally, the tax code, and energy (what is happening with cap and trade and climate change—and the zero option re nuclear weapons?). And immigration! It begins with return of Congress in January.

3. Energy Security/Independence and oil prices—how low can they go? Hydro-fracturing and LNG—are these real energy game changers? What does this mean for the traditional oil producers? Russia? Saudi Arabia? OPEC generally? How far away from a serious conversion to green technology and robotic cars are we?

4. The pivot to the Asia-Pacific and China—peer competitor, potential ally, and/or collaboration agent????—what we learned coming out of recent events in Asia (North Korean December 2014cyber attack on Sony, PRC anti-ship missile capabilities as part of a denial strategy (A2/AD), claims of sovereignty over the South China Sea and the ADIZ controversy in the east China Sea); how about the sea voyage of its first aircraft carrier?; The second island chain strategy? Japan?

5. The Mid-east peace process and the future of the Arab Spring movements; What do we do re ISIS? What about Syria?; How long can Assad last? The post Assad Syria and the nature of the opposition (Al Qaeda links?). What happens after “verification of the destruction of chemical weapons?”

6. The continuing Russia-Georgia and Russia-Ukraine sagas—what do they illuminate re ethnic nationalism, NATO expansion, Russian resurgence/imperial ambitions/xenophobia (what does the ratification of START mean to all of this?) is it all about energy? where are we with the reset?

7. Whither the Euro Zone and the EU in the face of electoral reactions to austerity programs? Greece? Spain? Even Germany and its interdependence with Russia?

8. The U.S. budget in a period of austerity—spending for entitlements, defense, debt and deficit; the Medicaid//Obama Care nexus has stirred the reaction among the states 9. Immigration—both legal and illegal—can we strike a deal between the president and Congress on this following the President’s December initiative?

10. Drug War

11. BRICS—are they done rising?

12. What will the social agenda bring us following Ferguson, Garner, and retaliation against police?

13. This year begins with the return of Congress. It faces yet another looming term dominated by divisive politics—and Obama’s economic fairness agenda.

PREREQUISITES: The student should know the basic features of the international system as it has operated historically and be familiar with the traditional concepts of EAST-WEST and NORTH- SOUTH as they structure thinking about IR and relevant global and regional issues. Students should have completed basic undergraduate courses in IR theory/American foreign policymaking.

COURSE OBJECTVES: Upon course completion, the student should have a reinforced understanding of:  the actors and their involvement in IR; the tools of IR interaction; the relationship between politics and economics in IR; the major theoretical approaches to the study of IR; and the global (and regional) issues in IR in the 1990s; and

 how to apply generally IR theory to any global issue.

 Most importantly, the student should better understand the process of national security policymaking in the U.S. as well as the manner in which the actors in the U.S. government establishment understand and decide issues. It will be a course about how Washington works. In this sense, this course will likely be different from any other course you have ever taken. We will begin the year and track closely throughout the process and substance of the winding down of the war in Afghanistan and the new defense strategy for PAKAF, as well as the economy, budget process, and the NSA, Syria, and Iran. We will be more sensitive to the interplay between policy and politics. The Asia-Pacific pivot may see some real strategic movement.  Finally, the student should have a sense for the way in which the current menu of issues facing the international community offers threats as well as opportunities not only for the system as a whole and us as inhabitants of this planet, but also for the nation state, which has been the dominant form of organization for the past 500 years.

REQUIRED TEXTS: Time, Newsweek, The Economist, The Washington Post (generally) Students should have available current periodicals and newspapers and will be expected to watch relevant current affairs TV broadcasts ((I expect everyone to read the Washington Post ((its A and Outlook sections) and Foreign Affairs, and the weekly national periodicals.)). Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, and Washington Times also are part of the daily chatter in DC. You must watch the Saturday evening/Sunday morning talk shows/news broadcasts. I recommend a quick read of Thomas Friedman’s , The World is Flat, and Natan Sharansky’s, The Case for Democracy. I will flood you with electronic readings weekly that you can peruse. Sageman has a new text on leaderless terrorist networks. See recent critiques of the Bush administration such as Cobra II and Fiasco . See Doug Feith’s War and Decision; See Ron Suskind’s The Price of Loyalty, The One Percent Doctrine, and his most recent The Way of the World. These catch you up on the Bush legacy that Obama inherited. Two most recent books about how DC works are: Gutmann and Thompson, The Spirit of Compromise: Why Governing Demands It and Campaigning Undermines It; : Mann and Ornstein, It’s Even Worse Than it Looks

METHODOLOGY: This class is a seminar. No more that one-half of any meeting I will devote to a formal lecture, and student involvement is encouraged during any lecture (discussion based rather than lecture based learning environment). Significant burdens lie on each of us to be prepared fully prior to class. This means, of course, that assignments should be accomplished before class. Moreover, we all must devote time prior to class to thinking through the issues raised in the readings. You should allocate at least one-half of your preparation time to these thoughtful deliberations. Learn to read quickly and carefully—and make strategic decisions about what to read—and how to share your insights with others—in class and at the workplace.

I will assume the burden of making the seminars enjoyable learning experiences--a place and time we all look forward to. I will mix a variety of techniques throughout the course so that we are more able to keep our focus on learning. Learning can be fun, and making it so is one of my primary objectives.

EVALUATION: Grading is important to you and me and is a responsibility I take very seriously. I am flexible in my approach as to how you may earn your grade and will detail this more thoroughly in class. What follows is my general expectation for your level of work. Class attendance is expected.

Five written issues paper(s) (see below) 75% #1 Class 3 5% #2 Class 6 10% #3 Class 9 15 % #4 Class 12 20% #5 Class 15 25%

Class discussions/presentations 25% (This means you must be ACTIVE participant and not just a passive listener I will explain this in class). It is highly improbable that even with A’s on all papers you can earn above an A- for the course if you are not an active seminar participant.

Final Exam/Extra paper (optional—can raise your evaluation up to one letter grade; particularly recommended for those who are less involved in class discussions)

Each issue paper is to be three pages in length (less than 1000 words) and will contain the following sections—background, issue, options, recommendations, and traps (sample format will be provided; beginning with paper #3 talking points are also required). An additional one- half page of talking points are required for papers three, four, and five. You will write this as if you were crafting a position for your “principal,” who sits at the table of the senior-level, NSC-chaired meeting. You will be recommending a course of action, or option, for the president—President Obama. It must be in the ballpark of what he is willing to consider. How you define the issue is the starting point of the paper and crucial to what follows (not everyone will frame the issue the same). You must accomplish five of these issue papers. I will permit a sixth (or more) as an un-graded learning experience (that means you take your five highest). One is required not later than 4 p.m. on the day of our third, sixth, ninth, twelfth, and last meetings. You must finish paper #1 before moving on to paper #2. You must finish paper #2 before moving on to paper #3, etc. One-half letter grade deductions from each paper evaluation will occur for failure to be timely with your paper submissions (and will be additive—one-half letter grade subtraction when it is late (at 4:00 p.m. on the respective due date) and an additional one-half letter grade each subsequent day late). You may submit one draft prior to the due date and time for the first two papers— and I will comment as my time permits. But your final draft (or paper) is still due at 4 p.m. on the 3rd. 6th, 9th, 12th and last meeting days of our class. Papers may be submitted electronically (Microsoft Word document) or paper. I normally return the electronic submissions with one working day. Paper submissions will be returned to you the next scheduled class unless you and I arrange differently. All work must be submitted not later than 12 noon following our last scheduled class meeting..

Each student is required to schedule and complete a face-to-face mid-term progress review with me between the 7th and 9th lessons. Expect this to take between 15-30 minutes. This is a student requirement to initiate and schedule with me.

Notional Schedule of Topics Week One: The Leadership Challenge Week Two: Syria and its terrorist and humanitarian dimensions; Iraq and ISIS Week Three: Is Afghanistan Over or Just Beginning Week Four: Russia I: Novorossiya, and the Ukraine Week Five: Russia II Week Six: The Executive Branch vs the Congress: Immigration reform Week Seven: Turning to Asia: the future of the Korean Peninsula Week Eight: The Asia Pivot, China, Air Sea Battle, and Anti-Access/Area Denial Week Nine: Iran and the challenges of nuclear proliferation Week 10: Africa—PRC interests and the terrorist threat Week Eleven: Solutions for the Middles east? Week Twelve: TBD Week Thirteen: Energy, Oil Prices, and Climate Change Week Fourteen: Drugs, Transnational Crime, Latin America and the BRICS Week 15: TBD