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PUBLIC FORUM DEBATE January 2009

Dr. John F. Schunk, Editor

“Resolved: That, by 2040, the federal government should mandate that all new passenger vehicles and light trucks sold in the United States be powered by alternative fuels.”

PRO P01. U.S. RELIANCE ON GASOLINE IS UNSUSTAINABLE P02. OIL IMPORTS JEOPARDIZE U.S. SECURITY P03. CLIMATE CHANGE THREATENS WORLD SURVIVAL P04. THERE ARE MANY ALTERNATIVES TO GASOLINE P05. ETHANOL IS AN EFFECTIVE ALTERNATIVE P06. CELLULOSIC BIOFUELS ARE AN EFFECTIVE ALTERNATIVE P07. HYDROGEN IS AN EFFECTIVE ALTERNATIVE P08. NOW IS THE TIME FOR A FEDERAL MANDATE P09. AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY CAN MEET MANDATE P10. 2040 IS A REASONABLE DEADLINE

CON C01. WORLD OIL SUPPLIES ARE PLENTIFUL C02. OIL IMPORTS DON’T JEOPARDIZE U.S. SECURITY C03. CLIMATE CHANGE IS EXAGGERATED C04. ALTERNATIVE FUELS ARE DEVELOPING WITHOUT MANDATE C05. BICYCLES ARE AN ALTERNATIVE C06. ALTERNATIVE FUELS CANNOT REPLACE GASOLINE C07. ETHANOL IS DOOMED TO FAILURE C08. CELLULOSIC BIOFUELS ARE DOOMED TO FAILURE C09. HYDROGEN IS DOOMED TO FAILURE C10. ELECTRIC VEHICLES ARE DOOMED TO FAILURE C11. LIQUEFIED COAL IS DOOMED TO FAILURE C12. AUTO INDUSTRY WILL CIRCUMVENT MANDATES C13. AUTO INDUSTRY BANKRUPTCY WILL DESTROY ECONOMY

S-K PUBLICATIONS PO Box 8173 Wichita KS 67208-0173 PH 316-685-3201 FAX 316-685-6650 [email protected] http://www.squirrelkillers.com SK/P01. U.S. RELIANCE ON GASOLINE IS UNSUSTAINABLE

1. WORLD OIL SUPPLIES ARE BEING RAPIDLY DEPLETED

SK/P01.01) Alec Rasizade [Historical Research Center], CONTEMPORARY REVIEW, Autumn 2008, p. 273, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has published recently in Paris its latest World Energy Outlook, in which it projected an increase in the world oil demand from the present 87 million barrels per day (mb/d) to 120 mb/d by 2030.

SK/P01.02) Alec Rasizade [Historical Research Center], CONTEMPORARY REVIEW, Autumn 2008, p. 273, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The coming era of permanent decline in oil production with its profound economic and social implications is absolutely certain, given the fact that at least 70 per cent of today's oil comes from the deposits discovered before 1970. The significance of this situation should become apparent when we realize that, for every newly discovered barrel of oil, three barrels are being consumed.

SK/P01.03) Alec Rasizade [Historical Research Center], CONTEMPORARY REVIEW, Autumn 2008, p. 273, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Mass media periodically inform us about the abundant oil becoming available from the Caspian region, from the tar sands of Canada, from the heavy oil deposits of Venezuela and, in theory, the enormous fields of shale in the middle of the United States, which ostensibly contain more barrels of oil than the entire Middle East. My advice is to ignore this sheer bluff, since much of the scam is intended to increase share prices of oil companies and the flow of investment capital into the oil sector.

SK/P01.04) Steven Hayward [American Enterprise Institute], THE AMERICAN, May-June 2007, p. 90, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Right now, the U.S. has about 22 billion barrels of "proven" oil reserves, which are defined as "reasonably certain to be recoverable in future years under existing economic and operating conditions." This represents about a three-year supply at our present consumption rate. New reserves are being found all the time, and predicting when oil reservoirs will run dry is a risky business. There are an estimated 112 billion barrels more of oil that could be recovered with existing drilling and production technology. Together with existing reserves, this would represent 15 years' worth of oil use.

SK/P01.05) George Leopold, ELECTRONIC ENGINEERING TIMES, November 3, 2008, p. 4, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. "Drill, baby, drill!" That's the mantra of those who would continue down the well- trodden path of oil addiction, global warming and national insecurity. According to geologists who have studied the issue, it could take at least a decade to deliver to the pump any oil found off the U.S. East Coast. Experts who have examined test holes have concluded that the likelihood of finding significant oil reserves off the East Coast, where there has so far been little offshore drilling, is "very slim." 2. OIL USAGE IN U.S. IS NEARLY ALL FOR GASOLINE

SK/P01.06) Steven Hayward [American Enterprise Institute], THE AMERICAN, May-June 2007, p. 90, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Oil certainly poses unique political challenges, but it accounts for about two-fifths of total American energy use, almost entirely in the transportation sector.

SK/P01.07) Steve Stein [financial adviser], POLICY REVIEW, August- September 2006, p. 53, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Since oil accounts for only about 40 percent of our total energy consumption but 90 percent of the energy we use each year for transportation, ending an addiction to oil means reducing the consumption of gasoline.

3. U.S. WILL RUN OUT OF OIL BY 2037

SK/P01.08) John Schaeffer [founder and President of Real Goods], EARTH ISLAND JOURNAL, Autumn 2007, p. 51, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Twenty-five years from now puts us at 2032, and the US Congress Office of Technology Assessment said we will run out of oil in 2037.

4. OIL SHORTAGES WILL SPARK SOCIAL CHAOS AND WARFARE

SK/P01.09) Peter Katel, CQ RESEARCHER, January 4, 2008, p. 1. Some oil experts warn of even bigger price shocks to come as oil-producing nations use more and more of their own oil, and energy demand jumps 50 percent by 2030. Some experts predict an oil "production crunch" within four to five years that will have severe geopolitical and economic impacts, and one expert says the energy supply-demand gap could create "social chaos and war" by 2020.

SK/P01.10) Alec Rasizade [Historical Research Center], CONTEMPORARY REVIEW, Autumn 2008, p. 273, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Consider just these figures: there are 900 million vehicles on the world's roads today and, according to a Royal Dutch Shell estimate, with the growth of China and India, there will be 2 billion by 2050. What kind of fuel will move those 2 billion vehicles, and what will be the cost of that fuel? If production continues to fall while demand continues to rise, oil prices will spike wildly, raising the prospect of economic chaos and even wars, as countries will fight over the oil reserves. It is an open secret that the US intervention in Kuwait in 1991 and the invasion of Iraq in 2003 were about the oil. SK/P02. OIL IMPORTS JEOPARDIZE U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY

1. U.S. OIL SUPPLY DEPENDS HEAVILY UPON IMPORTS

SK/P02.01) Alec Rasizade [Historical Research Center], CONTEMPORARY REVIEW, Autumn 2008, p. 273, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The USA, with its daily oil consumption of 20 mb/d, of which 15 mb/d are imported, is spending now $730 billion for the import of oil annually and $2 billion daily. The entire GDP of the USA was $14 trillion in 2007, so the cost of oil import swallows a disproportionally large portion of its GDP.

SK/P02.02) Robert J. Samuelson, NEWSWEEK, March 17, 2008, p. 45, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Dependence on oil imports, now almost 60 percent of our supply, is inevitable. We simply use too much and produce too little.

SK/P02.03) Steven Hayward [American Enterprise Institute], THE AMERICAN, May-June 2007, p. 90, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The Department of Energy predicts that oil imports will grow from the current rate of 10 million barrels a day to 17 million barrels a day by the year 2030. The reason is simple: demand for oil will keep rising (by about 30 percent by 2030) and domestic supply won't.

2. IMPORTS ARE HIGHLY UNRELIABLE

SK/P02.04) Umesh Kher, TIME, June 13, 2005, p. A6, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. What does alternative energy have to do with national security? Gray and Podesta are part of an unlikely alliance of neoconservatives, farmers and union and environmental leaders who want to wean the U.S. of its oil habit--some for purely green reasons (to stave off global warming), but others for the sake of cutting U.S. dependence on the volatile Middle East.

SK/P02.05) Steve Stein [financial adviser], POLICY REVIEW, August- September 2006, p. 53, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Of the United States' four largest suppliers--Canada, Mexico, Venezuela, and Saudi Arabia--only Canada is entirely reliable. Venezuela's dictator, Hugo Chavez, competes with Fidel Castro for the role of chief antagonist in this hemisphere. Saudi Arabia's relations with this country are as problematic as its relations with its own disaffected extremists. Mexico (which was, incidentally, the first country to nationalize oil concessions that had been held by American companies) shares a border with the United States that is strung with barbed wire and guarded by immigration vigilantes.

3. DEPENDENCE ON IMPORTS THREATENS U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY

SK/P02.06) George Leopold, ELECTRONIC ENGINEERING TIMES, November 3, 2008, p. 4, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Energy independence is a paramount national security issue, and clean, renewable energy has become a real market that will generate jobs and profits for those wise enough to invest. 4. ALTERNATIVE FUELS WILL REDUCE FOREIGN DEPENDENCE

SK/P02.07) Jay Leno, POPULAR MECHANICS, May 2008, p. 48, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The more alternatives to gasoline we have--you know, cars that run on E85, natural gas or hydrogen fuel cells--the less foreign oil we will consume in the long run.

5. ALTERNATIVE FUELS WILL ENHANCE U.S. SECURITY

SK/P02.08) James A. Duffield [senior agricultural economist, U.S. Department of Agriculture], AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, December 2008, p. 1239, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. A common theme among the three papers is the need to develop policies that encourage feedstock diversity (i.e., bioenergy production in the United States needs to be expanded beyond corn-based ethanol). Reducing trade barriers should be considered as well as adopting more policies that encourage investment in alternative conversion technologies. Combining the use of alternative fuels with more fuel-efficient vehicles would promote future energy security without sacrificing food security.

6. REDUCTION OF IMPORTS PROMOTES WAR AGAINST TERRORISM

SK/P02.09) Steve Dunn [Professor Emeritus of Political Science & Environmental Studies, Western State College of Colorado], THE HUMANIST, September-October 2007, p. 25, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. In a recent survey of several thousand U.S. national security experts, 78 percent said that the single most important thing the United States could do to fight terrorism would be to reduce its oil dependence on the Middle East. Control over the flow of oil is a potent weapon to aim at the world's economies and, more than any other source, oil finances terrorism. SK/P03. CLIMATE CHANGE THREATENS WORLD SURVIVAL

1. GLOBAL WARMING IS ACCELERATING

SK/P03.01) Bil McKibben, MOTHER JONES, November-December 2008, p. 40, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. It was September 2007 that the tide began to turn. Every summer Arctic sea ice melts, and every fall it refreezes. The amount of open water has been steadily increasing for three decades, a percent or two every year--it's been going at about the pace that the hairline recedes on a middle-aged man. It was worrisome, and scientists said all the summer ice could be gone by 2070 or so, which is an eyeblink in geologic time but an eternity in politician time. In late summer of last year, though, the melt turned into a rout-it was like those stories of people whose hair turns gray overnight. An area the size of Colorado was disappearing every week; the Northwest Passage was staying wide open all September, for the first time in history. Before long the Arctic night mercifully descended and the ice began to refreeze, but scientists were using words like "astounding." They were recalculating-by one NASA scientist's estimate the summer Arctic might now be free of ice by 2012.

2. FOSSIL FUELS ARE PRIMARY CAUSE OF GLOBAL WARMING

SK/P03.02) Amy Greer et al. [Research Institute of The Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto], CANADIAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION JOURNAL, March 11, 2008, p. 715, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was established by the United Nations Environment Program and the World Meteorological Organization in 1988 to provide objective analysis of data related to climate change. The panel comprises scientists from around the globe and aims to present the scientific, technical and socioeconomic issues arising from the data to government decision-makers in a policy-neutral context. In April 2007, the panel issued a report on the impact of global climate change on human and animal populations. This report was based on about 30,000 observations of changes in physical and biological systems worldwide. More than 90% of these changes are attributable to human activities such as the combustion of fossil fuels.

SK/P03.03) Dan Rosenblum & Charles Komanoff [Co-Directors, Carbon Tax Center], TIKKUN, July-August 2007, p. 52, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. From Hurricane Katrina and the inundation of island nations to heat waves in Europe and drought in Australia, climate change is wreaking horrific damage. It's going to get worse, perhaps much worse, before it gets better. According to James Hansen, head of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies www.giss.nasa.gov and the preeminent scientist warning the world about global warming, the Earth has already warmed one degree Fahrenheit over the past thirty years. Another degree is in the pipeline because of gases that are already in the atmosphere, and still another degree is in store because of carbon dioxide emissions that will spew for decades from our growing energy infrastructure of fossil fuel-powered electricity generating plants--largely coal- fired--along with refineries processing petroleum and natural gas to fuel our cars and trucks, planes and homes, factories and shopping malls. SK/P03.04) Jeffrey Kluger, TIME, April 9, 2007, p. 50, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued a report on the state of planetary warming in February that was surprising only in its utter lack of hedging. "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal," the report stated. What's more, there is "very high confidence" that human activities since 1750 have played a significant role by overloading the atmosphere with carbon dioxide hence retaining solar heat that would otherwise radiate away.

3. GLOBAL WARMING SPREADS DISEASE AND DESTRUCTION

SK/P03.05) Norm Dixon [member of Australia’s Democratic Socialist Perspective], SYNTHESIS/REGENERATION, Fall 2007, p. 33, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. If greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced, sea levels are forecast to rise between 20 centimeters and one meter by 2100, flooding some of the world's most densely populated cities. Global warming will trigger severe storms and floods, worse droughts and expanding deserts, severe shortages of fresh water and increased epidemics of dangerous tropical diseases.

SK/P03.06) Amy Greer et al. [Research Institute of The Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto], CANADIAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION JOURNAL, March 11, 2008, p. 715, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Warmer temperatures and altered rainfall patterns are likely to increase the range and burden of vector-borne infectious diseases in North America and elsewhere. Altered patterns of rainfall and increased frequency of extreme weather events are likely to influence the incidence of water-borne gastrointestinal and respiratory diseases in North America and elsewhere.

4. CARBON EMISSIONS KILL THOUSANDS

SK/P03.07) FOREIGN POLICY, March-April 2008, p. 24, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. For the first time, new research directly links increased emissions to an increase in human deaths. Using one of the most sophisticated computer climate models ever created, Mark Jacobson, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at Stanford University, has shown that, for every single- degree Celsius rise in global temperatures, increased CO2 emissions lead to about 21,600 more deaths each year. That's because, as the world warms, levels of corrosive ozone gas and toxic particles in the air also increase, particularly in places that already have a great deal of pollution. Inhaling the ozone gas and particles leads to more respiratory and cardiovascular illnesses, which for many people will turn deadly. 5. THE SURVIVAL OF PLANET EARTH IS AT STAKE

SK/P03.08) Hillary Rosner, AUDUBON, March-April 2008, p. 154, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. At two degrees we'll also see a rise in deadly heat waves, like the one that hit Europe in 2003; crippling wildfires; faster-melting glaciers; disappearing coastlines, polar bears, and vital urban water supplies; and the obliteration of "a large swath of natural biodiversity." Suffice it to say that the horror story only worsens from there, with most of the planet becoming virtually unrecognizable, and leaving millions of humans--those of us who don't starve to death or perish in the inevitable nuclear battles over the last remaining resources--to desperately roam the planet in search of food.

SK/P03.09) Steve Dunn [Professor Emeritus of Political Science & Environmental Studies, Western State College of Colorado], THE HUMANIST, September-October 2007, p. 25, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The last time the planet was 5.4 degrees cooler than now we were in an Ice Age. Five degrees warmer might quickly change the natural world just as dramatically. With somewhere between a three- to five-degree increase, we'll likely see the twenty-foot-plus ocean level rise depicted in An Inconvenient Truth from the Greenland and Antarctic ice caps, on top of the expected ten to twenty inches from thermal expansion and ongoing ice melt. Mix in stronger storms coming in over these new coastlines, unbearable heat and drought in the Southwest and elsewhere, a 20-30 percent species extinction rate (closer to 50 percent at a 5.4 degree increase), and--suffice it to say, we're facing disaster.

SK/P03.10) Bil McKibben, MOTHER JONES, November-December 2008, p. 40, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. From the moment in 1988 when a NASA scientist named James Hansen told Congress that burning coal and gas and oil was warming the earth, we've struggled to absorb this one truth: The central fact of our economic lives (the ubiquitous fossil fuel that developed the developed world) is wrecking the central fact of our physical lives (the stable climate and sea level on which civilization rests).

SK/P03.11) Bil McKibben, MOTHER JONES, November-December 2008, p. 40, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The final piece of the puzzle came early this year, and again from James Hansen. Twenty years after his crucial testimony, he published a paper with several coauthors called "Target Atmospheric CO2." It put, finally, a number on the table-indeed it did so in the boldest of terms. "If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted," it said, "paleoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that CO2 will need to be reduced from its current 385 ppm to at most 350 ppm." SK/P04. THERE ARE MANY ALTERNATIVES TO GASOLINE

1. MANY ALTERNATIVES TO GASOLINE CAN BE DEVELOPED

SK/P04.01) George Leopold, ELECTRONIC ENGINEERING TIMES, November 3, 2008, p. 4, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. We believe that many of the answers to our energy dilemma will come from a new generation of engineers who will create innovative ways to make renewable energy sources a viable economic alternative to fossil fuels. As one European expert put it at alternative energy technology conference earlier this year, the Earth's near-term energy future hinges on "fossil-assisted solar power," not the other way around.

2. ALTERNATIVE FUELS WILL PROVIDE SECURE CLEAN ENERGY

SK/P04.02) EBONY, November 2008, p. 132, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The growing concern about America's dependence on foreign oil is prompting changes in the automotive landscape, and carmakers are focusing on creating new vehicles that function without gasoline. Three of these alternative energy sources include hydrogen, electricity and natural gas, all of which not only power the vehicles, but are also environment-friendly.

SK/P04.03) Ronald G. Nelson [independent energy consultant], PIPELINE & GAS JOURNAL, February 2007, p. 62, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Global warming and "global slowing" due to crude oil depletion are interrelated. The U.S. can have a major impact on solving both problems by taking the lead in conserving the remaining energy resources dramatically, and as soon as possible, and seeking newer, innovative alternatives to gradually wean our dependence on oil to a broader range of oil-independent energy resources.

3. HYBRID VEHICLES CAN REDUCE OIL USAGE AND EMISSIONS

SK/P04.04) Steven Hayward [American Enterprise Institute], THE AMERICAN, May-June 2007, p. 90, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Since the big energy problem is with transportation, one solution would be to draw power for cars and trucks from the electrical grid which itself is powered by coal, natural gas, and nuclear energy. Hybrid electric cars would draw a charge by being plugged into the grid overnight, unlike current hybrids that charge only from braking motion while being driven. According to some estimates, an auto fleet that was 50 percent plug-in hybrid by 2025 would save as much as 8 million barrels of oil a day (about 40 percent of our current consumption).

SK/P04.05) Peter Katel, CQ RESEARCHER, January 4, 2008, p. 15. But a July 2007 report gives ammunition to the PHEV [plug-in hybrid electric vehicles] advocates. After an 18-month study, the Electric Power Research Institute and the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), an environmental group, concluded that widespread use of plug-in hybrids would, in 2050, reduce oil consumption by 3-4 million barrels a day. It would also cut greenhouse gas emissions by 450 million metric tons a year - the equivalent of taking 82.5 million cars off the road. 4. ELECTRIC VEHICLES CAN ELIMINATE CARBON EMISSIONS

SK/P04.06) Steve Heckeroth [Contributing Editor], MOTHER EARTH NEWS, December 2007, p. 50, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Electric vehicle drivetrains are inherently five to 10 times more efficient than internal combustion engines and they produce no greenhouse gases at the tailpipe. Even if powered by fossil-fuel electricity; emissions at the power plant are much lower per mile traveled than with internal combustion engines. In addition, electric vehicles can be charged directly from renewable sources, thereby eliminating emissions altogether.

SK/P04.07) EBONY, November 2008, p. 132, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The Chevy Volt, designed to use a common 110-volt household electric plug, is scheduled to hit the market by 2010, but there is an urgency to make it available sooner. For someone who drives less than 40 miles a day, the car will use no gasoline and produce no emissions. For longer trips, the car's range- extending power source kicks in.

5. USING NATURAL GAS AS FUEL REDUCES EMISSIONS

SK/P04.08) EBONY, November 2008, p. 132, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Natural gas is less expensive than gasoline or diesel, selling in some areas for less than $1 a gallon. Vehicles powered by natural gas combine top performance with low emissions (23 percent lower than diesel and 30 percent lower than gasoline). Currently, only 150,000 are in use in the United States.

6. U.S. MUST ACT SWIFTLY IN THE FACE OF FOREIGN COMPETITION

SK/P04.09) AUTOMOTIVE NEWS, February 4, 2008, p. 12, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Although the United States is in a green-technology race, its role in developing alternative-vehicle technologies and the hydrogen automobile could dwindle unless there is more investment. Industry executives warned that Germany, China and Japan are investing heavily in green technologies and could surpass the United States. If that happens, global automakers will follow the technology and the money overseas, taking jobs, infrastructure, suppliers and the technology initiative with them. SK/P05. ETHANOL IS AN EFFECTIVE ALTERNATIVE

1. ETHANOL REDUCES ENERGY CONSUMPTION

SK/P05.01) James Eaves [Professor of Finance & Insurance, Laval University, Canada] & Stephen Eaves, REGULATION, Fall 2007, p. 24, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Until recently, the process of producing ethanol was widely believed to use more energy than it created. But farming and ethanol conversion practices have improved, and ethanol proponents now argue that it is a sustainable and more secure alternative to gasoline. For instance, a particularly optimistic study conducted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture--one widely cited by ethanol proponents--estimates that for every unit of energy used to produce ethanol from corn, 1.34 units are created.

SK/P05.02) Charles J. Murray, DESIGN NEWS, August 11, 2008, p. 59, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Pimentel estimates the corn-based ethanol process actually burns about 1.43 gallons of oil equivalent to produce 1 gallon of ethanol. Ethanol advocates claim such studies are wildly inaccurate. "When you separate the wheat from the chaff, you'll find that those estimates are based on 20- year-old data," says Caupert of the National Corn-To-Ethanol Research Center.

SK/P05.03) Charles J. Murray, DESIGN NEWS, August 11, 2008, p. 59, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Proponents also point to Brazil as an example of ethanol's success. There, a state-subsidized switch to ethanol enabled the country to kick the foreign oil habit nearly 30 years ago. Many U.S. auto executives who saw the transformation are believers in ethanol. "The idea of working towards an alternative fuel made a lot of sense to us partly because so much of our senior leadership had worked in Brazil," says Adler of GM.

2. ETHANOL REDUCES CARBON EMISSIONS

SK/P05.04) Joy LePree, CHEMICAL ENGINEEERING, January 2008, p. 21, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. In addition, biofuels and other forms of renewable energy aim to be carbon neutral. "This means that any carbon released during the use of the fuel is reabsorbed and balanced by the carbon absorbed by new plant growth," says Zhang [catalysts division marketing manager with Sud-Chemie]. "So, producing transportation fuel from biomass feedstock (BTL) is considered an important means of reducing CO2 emissions and increasing energy security while providing an alternative to fossil fuels."

SK/P05.05) James A. Duffield [senior agricultural economist, U.S. Department of Agriculture], AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, December 2008, p. 1239, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Senauer also points out that the popular belief that biofuels reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as compared with fossil fuels has been undermined by recently published articles. However, the majority of past research done on the life-cycle analysis of biofuels indicates a decrease in GHG emissions, and additional research is needed to more precisely understand the effects that biofuel production has on global climate change. SK/P05.06) Jay Leno, POPULAR MECHANICS, May 2008, p. 48, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Ethanol-enriched fuel, however, does have some obvious advantages in the high-performance arena. Not only does it address all of the important environmental issues (it produces less carbon monoxide and hydrocarbon tailpipe emissions than gasoline), E85 has a very high octane rating (100 to 105), allowing engine builders to run higher compression ratios--producing more horsepower. Ethanol also combusts at a lower temperature than gasoline, which means the engine runs cooler. Thus, a smaller radiator and fan can be used, which will significantly reduce a vehicle's weight. And although decreasing harmful emissions usually doesn't directly affect performance, engine parts like pistons and valves tend to stay cleaner. Unlike gasoline, ethanol burns 100 percent, so it leaves behind no nasty residue.

3. AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY COULD EASILY MEET ETHANOL MANDATE

SK/P05.07) Charles J. Murray, DESIGN NEWS, August 11, 2008, p. 59, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. That may be why GM, Ford and others have already committed so much effort toward the ethanol switch. In 2009, GM will broaden its E85 lineup to include cars, as well as trucks, as it rolls out the four-cylinder Chevy HHR and the Buick Lucerne. Ford Motor Co. already has 14 flex- fuel models on the road and its 5.4-l Triton V-8 engine is E85-capable. In addition, its Volvo ReCharge plug-in hybrid concept car promises to use a Flexifuel engine, as well.

SK/P05.08) FEEDSTUFFS, April 7, 2008, p. 28, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. More than half of the nation's gasoline contains some percentage of ethanol--most as E10, the 10% ethanol blend approved for use in all vehicles. "The price of gasoline isn't rising as quickly as the price of diesel partly due to the fact that there's an alternative to gasoline--ethanol--that's adding more than 2 million gallons a day to our nation's fuel supply," noted Ron Lamberty, American Coalition for Ethanol's vice president/ market development.

4. BIOFUELS ARE NOT THE PRIMARY CASE OF FOOD PRICE INCREASES

SK/P05.09) Benjamin Senauer [Professor of Applied Economics, U. of Minnesota], AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, December 2008, p. 1226, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) has suggested that one-quarter to one-third of the price increase in crops used for biofuels (primarily corn and oilseeds, including palm oil) are due to bioenergy demand (Martin 2008).

SK/P05.10) James A. Duffield [senior agricultural economist, U.S. Department of Agriculture], AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, December 2008, p. 1239, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Senauer points out that biofuels are not the only cause of higher food prices--other factors include record export demand for United States farm commodities, along with the devaluation of the dollar. Also, it seems likely that the relentless climb in oil prices over the past few years may have had a greater effect on food prices than biofuels. SK/P05.11) James A. Duffield [senior agricultural economist, U.S. Department of Agriculture], AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, December 2008, p. 1239, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The sources on which Senauer relies to draw conclusions, namely Lester Brown and the Economist, argue that biofuels, especially U.S. corn-ethanol, were the primary cause of surging food prices in 2007. However, the USDA concluded that the increase in biofuel production has had a relatively small effect on rising U.S. food prices (Glauber 2008). The effect is small because when the cost of commodities such as corn passes through to food retailers, the effect on retail prices is relatively small. The Council of Economic Advisors estimated that the increases in corn-based ethanol production accounts for only about 3% of the recent increase in global food prices over the past year (Lazear 2008).

SK/P05.12) James A. Duffield [senior agricultural economist, U.S. Department of Agriculture], AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, December 2008, p. 1239, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Recent studies indicate that even if ethanol policies were discontinued, corn prices would remain above historical levels as long as gasoline prices remain high (Babcock and McPhail 2008). The concerns that higher food prices are increasing global hunger are well deserved, but it will obviously take much more than changing current ethanol policies to correct this critical problem.

5. BENEFITS OF ETHANOL OUTWEIGH DRAWBACKS

SK/P05.13) James A. Duffield [senior agricultural economist, U.S. Department of Agriculture], AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, December 2008, p. 1239, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The desire to diversify the U.S. energy sector has become a major U.S. policy objective and has prompted policy makers to adopt incentives that encourage the production of alternative forms of energy, such as bioenergy. This article [by Zhang, Lohr, Escalante, and Wetzstein] addresses the critical question--does adding biofuels to the U.S. fuel supply, such as ethanol and ethanol imports, reduce exposure to petroleum fuel-price shocks? The results indicate that fuel-price volatility can be reduced by diversifying the U.S. fuel supply with ethanol; however, it is at the expense of higher fuel prices. Nonetheless, shifting policies to encourage more ethanol may be socially desirable if the benefits of economic stability and growth are greater than the cost of higher fuel prices. SK/P06. CELLULOSIC BIOFUELS ARE AN EFFECTIVE ALTERNATIVE

1. CELLULOSIC BIOFUELS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE ENERGY USAGE

SK/P06.01) Jim Giles, NEW SCIENTIST, August 18, 2007, p. 6, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. But sugars can also be produced from cellulose, which makes up most of the biomass of fast-growing prairie grasses. Although the process of extracting sugar is more complex than for corn starch, cellulosic ethanol from wild grasses has big potential energetic and environmental advantages. Robert Mitchell of the University of Nebraska in Lincoln has been monitoring 10 farm- scale plots of switchgrass since 2000. Based on yields from these plots, and models describing the production of cellulosic ethanol, he told the ESA meeting that ethanol produced from such grasses would yield up to 15 times more energy than it uses during production, a huge improvement on corn.

SK/P06.02) Charles J. Murray, DESIGN NEWS, August 11, 2008, p. 59, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. "The cellulosics have an energy balance of about seven or eight to one, which is very attractive," says David Cole, director of the Center for Automotive Research. "The cost is also about a dollar per gallon, which is also very attractive." Companies such as Coskata Inc. are trying to capitalize on the advantages of cellulosic ethanol by developing production processes with high likelihoods of success. Coskata claims it can create ethanol by using such feedstocks as wood chips, municipal waste, trash or old tires.

2. CELLULOSIC BIOFUELS REDUCE CARBON EMISSIONS

SK/P06.03) Robynne Boyd, EARTH ISLAND JOURNAL, Summer 2008, p. 55, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The benefit of the complex process is that cellulosic ethanol can generate up to eight times the amount of energy it takes to produce it, says Gary Schmitz, spokesperson for the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in Golden, CO. Research from the Natural Resources Defense Council shows that ethanol made from cellulose could decrease greenhouse gasses by 88 percent compared to gasoline production, and would be about 60 percent better than ethanol production. According to NREL, cellulosic ethanol could supply 50 percent of the US's annual transportation fuel demand.

SK/P06.04) Ford Runge & Benjamion Senauer, FOREIGN AFFAIRS, May-June 2007, p. 41, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The benefits of biofuels are greater when plants other than corn or oils from sources other than soybeans are used. Ethanol made entirely from cellulose (which is found in trees, grasses, and other plants) has an energy ratio between 5 and 6 and emits 82 to 85 percent less greenhouse gases than does gasoline. As corn grows scarcer and more expensive, many are betting that the ethanol industry will increasingly turn to grasses, trees, and residues from field crops, such as wheat and rice straw and cornstalks. Grasses and trees can be grown on land poorly suited to food crops or in climates hostile to corn and soybeans. Recent breakthroughs in enzyme and gasification technologies have made it easier to break down cellulose in woody plants and straw. Field experiments suggest that grassland perennials could become a promising source of biofuel in the future. SK/P06.05) Jim Giles, NEW SCIENTIST, August 18, 2007, p. 6, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Jason Hill of the University of Minnesota in St Paul has come up with similarly impressive projections. Hill did not add the fertiliser that Mitchell's group used, so the energy yield from his grasses was 2 to 6 times less. Significantly, though, the grasses took in more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere than was released from the fuel used to grow and process them. The carbon dioxide removed--around a third of a tonne per hectare per year--was taken up by the roots and so remained in the soil after the harvest. This means that the greenhouse gas savings from wild-grass ethanol could be up to 16 times as great as those from corn (Science, DOI: 10.1126/ science.1133306).

3. CELLULOSIC BIOFUELS DON’T REQUIRE GOOD FARMLAND

SK/P06.06) Michelle Bryner et al., CHEMICAL WEEK, February 11, 2008, p. 18, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. There are three alternatives for producing cellulosic ethanol that do not require land-use change, thereby eliminating the GHG emissions associated with clearing land, Farrell [associate professor of the Energy and Resources Group at University of California, Berkeley] says. These are the use of waste and residues including municipal waste and corn cobs, use of marginal or unproductive land such as the desert, and agriculture integration, which refers to combining biofuel production with food production in a way that does not affect food yields.

SK/P06.07) Richard D. Firn, WORLD WATCH, May-June 2008, p. 2, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Worldwatch biofuels research associate Raya Widenoja responds: Second-generation biofuels based on biomass from perennial crops such as prairie grasses, or from woody crops or wood waste, can be used to provide energy and build carbon levels in soils without requiring external fertilization, pesticides, or irrigation. Biomass from many perennial grasses can also be produced and harvested sustainably on fragile and erodable soils that would not tolerate most food crops. Biofuels can also be derived sustainably from waste materials such as sawdust, scrap wood, and urban waste.

SK/P06.08) Patricia Woertz, FORBES, November 24, 2008, p. 126, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Today's ethanol and biodiesel are just the first step. Advanced biofuels--built on the innovations happening in today's industry--will be even better. These same innovations in farming, processing and infrastructure will also produce more food for the growing global population.

SK/P06.09) Jacqui Fatka, FEEDSTUFFS, February 18, 2008, p. 3, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The second study, "Land Clearing & the Biofuel Debt," found that how biofuels are produced determines the total carbon savings. "Converting rainforests, peatlands, savannas or grasslands to produce food-based biofuels in Brazil, Southeast Asia and the U.S. creates a biofuel carbon debt' by releasing 17-420 times more carbon dioxide than the annual GHG reductions these biofuels provide by displacing fossil fuels," the study found. In contrast, biofuels made from waste biomass or from biomass grown on abandoned agricultural lands planted with perennials incur little or no carbon debt and offer immediate and sustained GHG advantages. SK/P06.10) Patrick Walter, CHEMISTRY AND INDUSTRY, February 25, 2008, p. 10, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The researchers note that biofuels from agricultural wastes or grown on marginal land do not add to global warming. Eric Johnson, a biofuels analyst with SRI Consulting and one of the first to examine these issues, said: 'I think we're in danger of throwing out the baby with the bathwater.' He says that biofuels are not a global warming panacea but do have a role to play.

4. BIOFUELS FROM SWITCHGRASS HAVE HUGE POTENTIAL

SK/P06.11) John Carey, BUSINESS WEEK, May 12, 2008, p. 60, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Even better is biofuel from feedstocks that don't eat into food supplies, displace crops, or cause greenhouse gas emissions from plowing up forests or prairies. One prime candidate is switchgrass, a perennial prairie plant. Thanks to nine-foot-deep roots, switchgrass in test plots in the American Southeast thrived last summer despite an historic drought. The growth and decay of those deep roots also adds carbon to soil, making switchgrass cultivation a boon to fighting global warming. Ceres figures that its new commercial strain of the plant, with improved yields, could be grown on former tobacco, cotton, and rice fields across the southern U.S. "There are a lot of available acres out there," says Ceres' Hamilton.

SK/P06.12) Jacqui Fatka, FEEDSTUFFS, February 18, 2008, p. 3, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The current generation of biofuels is leading to a new stage of cellulosic biofuel development that will not only minimize land use changes but will actually enhance the environment, according to a statement from National 25x'25 Steering Committee, a group aiming to produce 25% of America's energy needs from renewable resources by 2025. The committee cited a recent five-year, three-state study from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln showing that switchgrass grown for biofuels produced 540% more energy than that needed to grow, harvest and process the crop into cellulosic ethanol. The study, recently published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, also showed that along with energy advances, switchgrass also offers significant environmental benefits, including many conservation uses as the deep fibrous roots of the plant help to keep soil intact and virtually stop runoff. It puts organic material back into the ground, improving soil, and requires no pesticides or fertilizers.

SK/P06.13) Patrick Barry, SCIENCE NEWS, January 19, 2008, p. 46, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Kenneth P. Vogel and his colleagues at the University of Nebraska in Lincoln tracked all the tractors, diesel, fertilizer, and herbicide used to grow 10 plots of switchgrass in North and South Dakota and Nebraska for 5 years, the team reports in the Jan. 15 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The plots ranged in size from 7 to 23 acres. Because the farmers used high-yield farming techniques, "the amount of energy for the [crop] production was about half what other people had estimated," Vogel says. Future strains of switchgrass will probably perform even better, he adds, considering the relatively small effort scientists have put into optimizing strains compared with work on corn and other food crops. SK/P06.14) WESTERN FARM PRESS, March 8, 2008, pNA, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The U.S. Department of Energy believes switchgrass is the most promising of the cellulosic-type biofuels. Yet the choice is likely to be location specific. "Switchgrass is native to North America, and estimated yields vary from 500 to 1,000 gallons (of ethanol) per acre. Several cellulosic conversion production plants are in the planning stages in the U.S."

SK/P06.15) Marina Murphy, CHEMISTRY AND INDUSTRY, January 14, 2008, p. 6, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Switchgrass produces almost twice as much renewable energy than previously thought and is comparable to corn in terms of energy yields, according to the first large-scale study at field production level. 'All previous estimates (on switchgrass) have been completed using data from small research plots and estimated inputs,' according to lead researcher Ken Vogel at the University of Nebraska. 'We used real world farms and equipment for a five-year period,' he says.

SK/P06.16) Marina Murphy, CHEMISTRY AND INDUSTRY, January 14, 2008, p. 6, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Since switchgrass absorbs carbon dioxide from the atmosphere as it grows, ethanol from this feedstock would produce almost zero greenhouse gases.

5. BIOFUELS FROM ALGAE HAVE HUGE POTENTIAL

SK/P06.17) David Stipp, FORTUNE, April 28, 2008, p. 142, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Unlike other biofuels, algae can grow in arid places using polluted or salty water--no need to use up scarce arable land and fresh water. A 2004 analysis at the University of New Hampshire concluded that all the transportation fuels in the U.S. could be supplied by algae grown on less than 30 million acres of desert--an area equal to about 3% of the U.S. land devoted to farming crops and grazing for animals. Because algae can grow so fast, such farms are expected to yield much more energy per acre than other biofuels.

6. BIOFUELS FROM SEWAGE HAVE HUGH POTENTIAL

SK/P06.18) Ryan Derousseau, FORTUNE, April 28, 2008, p. 12, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Sewage is a dirty word. While some towns dump it in landfills or process it and give it away for fertilizer, sewage treatment plants in the U.S. and elsewhere are attempting a more eco-friendly solution: turning the effluent into energy. Processing the waste of some 3.4 million Londoners, Britain's Beckton Sewage Treatment Works (right), produces 110,000 kilowatts per year, enough energy to power 7,000 homes annually. SK/P07. HYDROGEN IS AN EFFECTIVE ALTERNATIVE

1. HYDROGEN-FUELED VEHICLES HAVE NO CARBON EMISSIONS

SK/P07.01) EBONY, November 2008, p. 132, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Hydrogen cars emit water, not carbon dioxide, as exhaust. There is limited availability and it could be a couple of years before the cars hit the mass market. There are about 60 fueling stations around the country, with most of them in California.

SK/P07.02) James Gee [General Manager, Toledo Area Regional Transit Authority], MASS TRANSIT, July-August 2005, p. 53, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Hydrogen fuel is an attractive option as it is replenishable and creates zero pollution. While the goal of using pure hydrogen fuel is still far in the future, hydrogen also has a positive effect when used in conjunction with existing fuels. While previous testing shows that hydrogen improves the efficiency and effectiveness of the burn of gasoline and diesel fuels (with a resulting increase in fuel economy), little or no research has been undertaken into a B20/hydrogen blend. With our demonstration, TARTA will show the benefits of injecting a small amount of hydrogen in the air intake of the vehicle using B20 fuel. A second phase of this project will research generating hydrogen on demand onboard the vehicle as an additive to the standard fueling system.

2. THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY CAN BE A REALITY BY 2040

SK/P07.03) Paul Sharke, MECHANICAL ENGINEERING-CIME, October 2004, p. 32, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Supporters of the hydrogen economy are viewing their vision as the long-term solution to the nation's energy needs. As fuel-cell conference speaker Mark Williams of the DOE's National Energy Technology Laboratory put it, "Hybrids are a bridge to reduce foreign oil dependence until the hydrogen economy is in place," which he predicted will be in 2040.

SK/P07.04) Peter Odell, NEW SCIENTIST, November 6, 2004, p. 22, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Even more important will be the massive expansion of natural gas, which will dominate the global energy picture from 2040. There is plenty of it. Known and predicted reserves will be capable of meeting rising demand for seven decades. What is more, the gas is more environmentally friendly than other carbon fuels, producing only two-thirds as much CO2 per unit of energy as oil. It is also the most economic and reliable source of hydrogen for hydrogen- based transport technologies, and could thus paradoxically play a central role in reducing CO2 emissions from road transport. SK/P08. NOW IS THE TIME FOR A FEDERAL MANDATE

1. AUTO INDUSTRY HAS MADE TERRIBLE DECISIONS

SK/P08.01) Matt Kibbe [President, FreedomWorks Foundation], U.S. NEWS & WORLD REPORT, November 25, 2008, pNA, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Ten years ago, the Big Three posted a combined profit of over $16 billion. During the good times, management failed to invest this profit in a diversified product pipeline, but rather assumed that Americans would never stop buying high-profit SUVs and trucks. Now that market conditions have changed, the Big Three's business plan is to call on Congress to bail them out from reality. High labor costs and inflexible work rules, staggering legacy costs, an unwieldy dealer network, and a failure to overcome negative consumer sentiments have combined to bring Detroit's automakers to their knees. To put it bluntly, the Big Three remain weighed down by unmanageable legacy costs resulting from unrealistic union contracts made decades ago, leaving the car manufacturers no flexibility to respond to market changes.

2. INDUSTRY WOES MAKE NOW THE PERFECT TIME FOR A MANDATE

SK/P08.02) Bonnie Erbe, U.S. NEWS & WORLD REPORT, November 26, 2008, pNA, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Congress should not go easy on GM if it does approve a bailout, but Congress has shown no sign of going easy on the auto giant. The idea of setting auto executives scurrying to produce a business plan is nothing short of brilliant. I've got suggestions for what such a plan should include. But first and foremost, it should be focused on one word and one word alone: green. No more SUVs and gas guzzlers. Even in the truck division, GM could make its heavy-duty vehicles much more fuel efficient and price them so that they could only be purchased by commercial ventures. Private citizens who want to drive guzzlers should be priced out of the market and should instead be forced into low- mileage cars. GM got into this mess because instead of leading the consumer market in the right (read that: green) direction, it catered to America's sick addiction to gas guzzlers. Now's the time to lead, not cave in.

SK/P08.03) Jamie LaReau, AUTOMOTIVE NEWS, November 17, 2008, p. 34, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Let's assume, for the moment, that Congress gives GM the $12 billion it needs to survive next year. That bailout would be part of a larger $25 billion bailout of the Detroit 3 that Congress will debate this week a debate that will be contentious. Any bailout will come with strings attached. Democrats will demand limits on executive compensation and partial government ownership. Republicans might seek further cuts in hourly wages. And environmentalists may demand more fuel-efficient vehicles. 3. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT MUST SUPPORT FUEL ALTERNATIVES

SK/P08.04) AUTOMOTIVE NEWS, February 4, 2008, p. 12, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. In his final State of the Union address, President Bush called for more federal research into advanced batteries and renewable fuels to power vehicles of the future. But what's really needed is the equivalent of the Manhattan Project that developed the atomic bomb in the 1940s or the technology race that put a man on the moon in the 1960s.

4. AUTOMOBILE BANKRUPTCY WOULD NOT BE A NATIONAL DISASTER

SK/P08.05) Amanda Ruggeri, U.S. NEWS & WORLD REPORT, November 18, 2008, pNA, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The skeptics point out that bankruptcy isn't always a doomsday scenario. It can encourage a company to restructure, streamline, and ultimately become more competitive.

SK/P08.06) Matt Kibbe [President, FreedomWorks Foundation], U.S. NEWS & WORLD REPORT, November 25, 2008, pNA, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The U.S. steel industry faced a similar challenge. After decades of devastating headlines, the little-known story is that more steel was made in the United States in 2007 than in 1970, with one fifth the employees and one twelfth the man-hours per ton. The industry had to go through a painful process of bankruptcies, reorganization, and innovation, which serves as a model for the auto industry.

SK/P08.07) Matt Kibbe [President, FreedomWorks Foundation], U.S. NEWS & WORLD REPORT, November 25, 2008, pNA, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Recession is like nature's wildfire: It cleans out the deadwood from the economy. The Big Three will survive only as auto companies, not employee benefit organizations propped up with taxpayer money. After a successful reorganization--not a bailout--the Big Three (or two, by that point) will be able to escape the past and emerge as competitive companies. Chapter 11 might be the last shot for the Big Three to credibly claim it is a new day in Detroit and to win back the faith of the consumer. SK/P09. AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY CAN MEET MANDATE

1. AUTO INDUSTRY IS COMMITTED TO ALTERNATIVE FUELS

SK/P09.01) Jamie LaReau, AUTOMOTIVE NEWS, November 17, 2008, p. 34, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Skeptical environmentalists and Republicans want to impose additional concessions on the Detroit 3. Wagoner [CEO, General Motors] acknowledges that Washington may ask GM to speed the introduction of fuel-efficient vehicles something he is willing to do. The Chevrolet Volt electric hybrid is on track to come to market in November 2010. And the Chevrolet Cruze a small sedan that could top 40 mpg is expected to debut in the summer of 2010.

SK/P09.02) Charles J. Murray, DESIGN NEWS, August 11, 2008, p. 59, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Ethanol, as it's better known, has emerged as a key part of the national energy debate. It's seen as a solution to a variety of ills, ranging from high gas prices to global warming to an unquenchable thirst for foreign oil. As such, farmers, politicians and auto executives are calling for accelerated production of it. "We believe that sustainable biofuels are the right way to go," says General Motors Spokesman Alan Adler. "That's why we've committed to making half of our U.S. production E85-capable by 2012."

SK/P09.03) Charles J. Murray, DESIGN NEWS, August 11, 2008, p. 59, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Indeed, GM says it already has 3 million E85 vehicles (capable of burning a blend of 85 percent ethanol, 15 percent gasoline) on the road today and by 2012 it plans to be cranking out 2 million of them a year. Similarly, Ford Motor Co. has pledged that it, too, will make half its production vehicles capable of running on alternative fuels by 2012 and virtually every other global automaker has similar plans for a stable of flex fuel vehicles.

2. AUTO INDUSTRY IS MAKING CUTS TO IMPROVE EFFICIENCY

SK/P09.04) AUTO BUSINESS NEWS, November 26, 2008, pNA, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. General Motors Corporation (GM) (NYSE: GM), the world's largest automaker, is creating a 'Plan B' in case the Detroit bailout fails. The company is implementing more cost-cutting measures in order to survive in the current economic situation. The automaker has sold off part of its stake in Suzuki, announced several job cuts, delayed new product introductions, and cut back production in order to protect itself from Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing.

3. PASSENGER VEHICLES & LIGHT TRUCKS DESERVE EQUAL MANDATE

SK/P09.05) AUTOMOTIVE NEWS, November 19, 2007, p. 3, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. In its ruling, the three-judge panel of the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in San Francisco declared invalid the ways the federal government distinguishes between cars and light trucks for fuel economy purposes. A Senate-approved bill would set a single standard of 35 mpg for cars and trucks by 2020. It would end separate, lower requirements for pickups, vans and SUVs that have existed for three decades. SK/P09.06) AUTOMOTIVE NEWS, November 19, 2007, p. 3, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The appeals court ruling should encourage Congress to "eliminate the false distinction between cars and trucks,” said David Friedman, clean vehicles research director of the Union of Concerned Scientists, an environmental group. SK/P10. 2040 IS A REASONABLE DEADLINE

1. SOME HAVE PROPOSED 2020 AS A REASONABLE DEADLINE

SK/P10.01) Stephen Spruiell, NATIONAL REVIEW, October 20, 2008, p. 26, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The gang's ["Gang of 10" Senators—five Republicans and five Democrats] proposal also included sweeteners for proponents of plain old corn-based ethanol, such as John Thune. It had loan guarantees for the construction of new pipelines capable of transporting E85, a fuel blend composed of 85 percent ethanol. (Ethanol cannot travel through ordinary pipes, because it corrodes them and absorbs water and other impurities.) It would have expanded tax credits for E85- powered automobiles and gas stations that sell E85. It proposed an extraordinary requirement that 100 percent of automobiles manufactured for use in the United States be capable of running on some form of alternative (non-gasoline) fuel by 2020.

2. INTERIM GOALS CAN BE MET BY 2020 OR SOONER

SK/P10.02) Bonnie Erbe, U.S. NEWS & WORLD REPORT, November 26, 2008, pNA, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Dan Beuke of BusinessWeek writes “End of discussion about higher mileage rules. For years, honest efforts to boost fuel efficiency were snuffed out in Washington by Detroit and its fellow travelers in Congress. Enough. I say we build right into bailout legislation a 40- mpg average for cars by 2020. That's up from 27.5 today, and a big step up from the 35 mpg goal that Detroit is supposed to achieve. I don't care how they get there: Build cars that burn corn cobs--or For Sale signs, for that matter. Just get there.”

SK/P10.03) Alec Rasizade [Historical Research Center], CONTEMPORARY REVIEW, Autumn 2008, p. 273, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The US Congress has a goal of replacing 15 per cent of gasoline use with alternative fuels by 2017.

3. 2040 ALLOWS ENOUGH TIME FOR PHASE-IN OF ALTERNATIVES

SK/P10.04) Raymond J. Learsy [energy analyst], PIPELINE & GAS JOURNAL, May 2007, p. 120, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. By 2040 there will be: 1. Government mandated limits on the consumption of fossil fuels, most especially gasoline and petroleum based fuels. 2. There will be a massive shift to flex fuel cars, hybrid cars and electric cars on America's roads in lieu of gasoline powered cars. SK/P10.05) Eric Martinot [Worldwatch Institute], ENVIRONMENT, July-August 2006, p. 26, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. With concerted effort, renewables could realistically comprise more than half of global primary energy by 2040 (with the rest perhaps coming mostly from natural gas and coal-to- liquids). This view includes much greater use of electricity for transport, likely through advances in battery storage technology and plug-in hybrid-electric vehicles; widespread solar heating; a much greater share of power generation via distributed renewables with local energy storage, akin to today's distributed internet; and finally, perhaps a "wildcard" technology making great strides, such as solar thermal power generation or cellulose-to- ethanol. SK/C01. WORLD OIL SUPPLIES ARE PLENTIFUL

1. THE WORLD’S OIL SUPPLY WILL LAST WELL BEYOND 2040

SK/C01.01) Richard J. Green [NASA & National Science Foundation] & Wil Lepkowski, AMERICA, March 31, 2008, p. 9, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The world has an assured supply of petroleum for 80 to 100 years.

SK/C01.02) Peter Katel, CQ RESEARCHER, January 4, 2008, pp. 4-5. Some experts say such recent discoveries suggest that new exploration and production technology will supply the world with oil into the indefinite future. "What's really happening is the opening up of a whole new horizon in the ultra-deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico, and it looks like the upside is very significant," said Yergin [Cambridge Energy Research Associates], a critic of peak oil theory.

SK/C01.03) Craig S. Marxsen [Associate Professor of Economics, U. of Nebraska-Kearney], INDEPENDENT REVIEW, Spring 2008, p. 537, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. A great deal of fossil-fuel material remains buried in accessible places. In the U.S. Department of Energy's International Energy Outlook 2006, world energy use is projected to rise from 421 quadrillion Btus, or "quads," in 2003 to 722 quads in 2030 (2006b, 1). Paul Holtberg, director of the Demand and Integration Division of the U. S. Department of Energy, and Robert Hirsch, a senior energy program advisor at Science Applications International Corporation, estimate that 13,400 quads of conventional crude oil and 14,000 quads of conventional natural gas remain exploitable. At least another 15,000 quads are available from unconventional sources of crude oil, such as tar sands and oil shale. In the lower forty-eight states of the United States, geopressured brine and gas hydrates may offer as much as 335,000 quads, according to Holtberg and Hirsch (2003).

2. ECONOMIC RECESSION IS REDUCING ENERGY DEMAND

SK/C01.04) Marilyn Radler & Laura Bell, THE OIL AND GAS JOURNAL, January 21, 2008, p. 24, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Worldwide oil demand growth will slow down to 1.0% in 2008, owing to a weakening global economy. Oil demand in the US will decline as the economy slows down, but demand for natural gas will increase modestly.

SK/C01.05) James Pethokoukis, U.S. NEWS & WORLD REPORT, October 10, 2008, pNA, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Stanford economist Nicholas Bloom finds the good news in the coming global recession: In fact the only upside of all this is that the massive slow-down in economic growth will rapidly cut the growth rates of CO2 emissions. Pollution is tightly linked to the level of economic activity, so that a few years of negative growth would lead to reductions in pollution levels not seen since the 1970s. It seems ironic that the greed of Wall Street may have inadvertently achieved what millions of well intentioned scientists, activists and politicians have failed to achieve--a slowdown in global warming. 3. HIGH OIL PRICES HAVE REDUCED DEMAND

SK/C01.06) Peter Coy & David Kiley, BUSINESS WEEK, June 9, 2008, p. 22, Online, GAGE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Gradually, though, the U.S. economy shows signs of doing what the textbooks predict it will, namely adjusting to higher oil prices. Airlines are starting to cut routes and raise fares, which is likely to reduce fuel use by simply discouraging air travel. With diesel even pricier than gasoline, some truckers are parking their rigs.

4. FALLING GASOLINE PRICES HAVEN’T HALTED THE TREND

SK/C01.07) Mark Williams, THE HOUSTON CHRONICLE, November 21, 2008, p. 3, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Custom Newspapers. The average price for gasoline is on pace to fall below $2 nationally by week's end. The decline comes as motorists continue to drive less. The Federal Highway Administration reported Wednesday that Americans drove 10.7 billion fewer miles in September than a year ago, the 11th straight monthly decline. Americans have driven 90 billion fewer miles over those 11 months than they did the year before.

5. OIL PRICES WILL RISE AGAIN

SK/C01.08) Jad Mouawad, INTERNATIONAL HERALD TRIBUNE, November 8, 2008, p. 17, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Custom Newspapers. The global economic slump that has curbed energy demand and pushed oil prices down in recent months may provide only a short-lived respite for consumers, according to the world's top energy forecaster. The International Energy Agency, which advises industrialized nations on energy policy, warned Thursday that the supply shortfalls that pushed oil prices into triple digits this year are far from resolved and could lead to a new period of high prices. Oil has plummeted from its summer peak in recent weeks as the financial and economic slowdown has reduced consumption. But many analysts believe oil could bounce back quickly, once economic growth resumes.

SK/C01.09) Dave O’Reilly [Chief Exectuive, Chevron], BUSINESS WEEK, November 24, 2008, p. 23, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Clearly, we're in a soft spot right now. But the thing to keep in mind is that oil at $50 or $60 a barrel is still quite high relative to where prices have been historically. They're back where they were around the beginning of 2007. And only in 2008 have oil prices really exceeded $70 a barrel for the year on average. So I still view them as healthy. And I'm surprised how healthy they are given the weakness in the economy in general. SK/C02. OIL IMPORTS DON’T JEOPARDIZE U.S. SECURITY

1. MOST U.S. OIL IMPORTS COME FROM CANADA & MEXICO

SK/C02.01) Steven Hayward [American Enterprise Institute], THE AMERICAN, May-June 2007, p. 90, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Much of the public, for instance, believes we get most of our oil from Saudi Arabia and other politically troubled nations. In fact, in 2005, the most recent year for which the Department of Energy has statistics, the U.S. imported 5 billion barrels of oil, with only 11 percent coming from Saudi Arabia. As Figure 1 shows, our leading foreign supplier is Canada, which provides about 16 percent of our imports, and Mexico is second, at 12 percent.

2. VULNERABILITY OF U.S. OIL SUPPLY IS EXAGGERATED

SK/C02.02) Steven Hayward [American Enterprise Institute], THE AMERICAN, May-June 2007, p. 90, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. How secure is our energy supply today? In some ways, more secure than it was in the 1970s. The proportion of imported oil has doubled in the last 30 years, but the U.S. economy is less vulnerable to oil price shocks caused by supply disruptions, as we saw with the recent tripling of the cost per barrel. First, the U.5. economy is much more energy-efficient. Since 1375, energy consumption per unit of gross domestic product has fallen 48 percent. Second, oil represents a shrinking share of total U.S. energy consumption--from 44 percent in 1970 to 40 percent in 2005. Since the 1970s, industrialized nations have established several important backstops against short-term supply disruptions. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), in operation since 1977, holds enough oil to supply domestic needs for two months if imports are completely cut off.

SK/C02.03) Steven Hayward [American Enterprise Institute], THE AMERICAN, May-June 2007, p. 90, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. In addition, following the oil shocks of the 1970s, the 158 nations established the International Energy Agency (IEA), which does for energy what the International Monetary Fund does for world banking: it acts as a mechanism to smooth and ameliorate disruptions and shocks to international energy markets. In fact, it was the IEA, acting through its standby Coordinated Emergency Response Measures (CERM),that supplied the U.5. with gasoline after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita damaged Gulf Coast refineries and pipelines. The CERM helped prevent serious gasoline shortages and severe price increases in the fall of 2005. 3. FEARS OF RESOURCE WARS ARE FANTASY

SK/C02.04) David G. Victor [Professor of Law, Stanford U.], THE NATIONAL INTEREST, November-December 2007, p. 48, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Classic resource wars are good material for Hollywood screenwriters. They rarely occur in the real world. To be sure, resource money can magnify and prolong some conflicts, but the root causes of those hostilities usually lie elsewhere. Fixing them requires focusing on the underlying institutions that govern how resources are used and largely determine whether stress explodes into violence. When conflicts do arise, the weak link isn't a dearth in resources but a dearth in governance.

SK/C02.05) David G. Victor [Professor of Law, Stanford U.], THE NATIONAL INTEREST, November-December 2007, p. 48, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. To be sure, the struggle over resources has yielded a wide array of commercial conflicts as companies duel for contracts and ownership. State- owned China National Offshore Oil Corporation's (CNOOC) failed bid to acquire U.S.- based Unocal--and with it Unocal's valuable oil and gas supplies in Asia--is a recent example. But that is hardly unique to resources--similar conflicts with tinges of national security arise in the control over ports, aircraft engines, databases laden with private information and a growing array of advanced technologies for which civilian and military functions are hard to distinguish. These disputes win and lose some friendships and contracts, but they do not unleash violence. SK/C03. CLIMATE CHANGE IS EXAGGERATED

1. THERE IS NO CONSENSUS ON GLOBAL WARMING

SK/C03.01) S. Fred Singer [Professor Emeritus of Environmental Sciences, U. of Virginia], USA TODAY MAGAZINE, March 2008, p. 16, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. In identifying the burning of fossil fuels as the chief cause of warming today, many politicians and environmental activists simply appeal to a so-called "scientific consensus." There are two things wrong with this. First, there is no such consensus. An increasing number of climate scientists are raising serious questions about the political rush to judgment on this issue. For example, the widely touted "consensus" of 2,500 scientists on the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is an illusion, its shared Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore notwithstanding. Most of the panelists have no scientific qualifications, and many of the others object to some part of the IPCC's report. The Associated Press reported that a mere 52 climate scientists contributed to the report's "Summary for Policymakers."

SK/C03.02) Christopher Booker, SUNDAY TELEGRAPH (London), August 31, 2008, p. 26, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Custom Newspapers. The common view of the IPCC is that it consists of 2,500 of the world's leading scientists who, after carefully weighing all the evidence, have arrived at a "consensus'' that world temperatures are rising disastrously, and that the only plausible cause has been rising levels of CO2 and other man-made greenhouse gases. In fact, as has become ever more apparent over the past 20 years - not least thanks to the evidence of a succession of scientists who have participated in the IPCC itself - the reality of this curious body could scarcely be more different. It is not so much a scientific as a political organisation. Its brief has never been to look dispassionately at all the evidence for man-made global warming: it has always taken this as an accepted fact. Indeed only a comparatively small part of its reports are concerned with the science of climate change at all. The greater part must start by accepting the official line, and are concerned only with assessing the impact of warming and what should be done about it.

SK/C03.03) Walter Starck [marine scientist], NATIONAL OBSERVER - AUSTRALIA AND WORLD AFFAIRS, Winter 2008, p. 43, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The theory of catastrophic global warming due to CO2 emissions rests on two fundamental elements. One is that CO2 absorbs infrared radiation. The other is that interactive computer models of climate have been constructed to show increased warming with increased CO2. However, a couple of dozen different climate models all produce differing results in accord with the assumptions and estimates they each incorporate. While the absorption of infrared by CO2 is undisputed, the amount of such heating on global climate is highly uncertain. There is good reason to think it has been greatly overestimated. The current understanding on which the climate models are based is very incomplete. SK/C03.04) S. Fred Singer [Professor Emeritus of Environmental Sciences, U. of Virginia], USA TODAY MAGAZINE, March 2008, p. 16, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. In the past few years, there has been increasing concern about global climate change on the part of the media, politicians, and the public. It has been stimulated by the idea that human activities may influence global climate adversely and that, therefore, corrective action is required on the part of governments. Recent evidence suggests that this concern is misplaced. Human activities are not influencing the global climate in a perceptible way. Climate will continue to change, as it always has in the past, warming and cooling on different time scales and for different reasons, regardless of human action. I also would argue that--should it occur--a modest warming would be, on the whole, beneficial.

2. THREAT OF DISEASE IS EXAGGERATED

SK/C03.05) David G. Victor [Professor of Law, Stanford U.], THE NATIONAL INTEREST, November-December 2007, p. 48, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The dangers of disease have caused particular alarm in the advanced industrialized world, partly because microbial threats are good fodder for the imagination. But none of these scenarios hold up because the scope of all climate- sensitive diseases is mainly determined by the prevalence of institutions to prevent and contain them rather than the raw climatic factors that determine where a disease might theoretically exist.

3. CLIMATE CHANGE WON’T TRIGGER RESOURCE WARS

SK/C03.06) Kevin Whitelaw, U.S. NEWS & WORLD REPORT, June 25, 2008, pNA, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. But the intelligence community concluded that climate change alone is "unlikely to trigger state failure" or full-blown water wars between countries battling over increasingly scarce water resources.

4. ALLEGED CATASTROPHIC EFFECTS ARE MERE SPECULATION

SK/C03.07) Walter Starck [marine scientist], NATIONAL OBSERVER - AUSTRALIA AND WORLD AFFAIRS, Winter 2008, p. 43, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. As for the widely publicised catastrophic consequences of warming, these are not even predicted by the models but are only speculations regarding such warming. Complex interactive models can be constructed and adjusted to produce any desired result. Without verification they reflect only the ideas on which they are based.

5. HUMANS CAN ADAPT TO CLIMATE CHANGE

SK/C03.08) S. Fred Singer [Professor Emeritus of Environmental Sciences, U. of Virginia], USA TODAY MAGAZINE, March 2008, p. 16, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. To repeat a point made earlier--climate has been changing cyclically for at least 1,000,000 years and has shown huge variations over geological time. Human beings have adapted well, and will continue to do so. SK/C04. ALTERNATIVE FUELS ARE DEVELOPING WITHOUT MANDATE

1. BAILOUT LAW INCLUDED INCENTIVES FOR ALTERNATIVES

SK/C04.01) Ashlea Ebeling, FORBES, November 24, 2008, p. 150, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The new law creates a credit of up to $7,500 for the first 250,000 buyers of plug-in electric vehicles, beginning in 2009. So far the Chevy Volt, scheduled to come on the market in 2010 with an estimated $40,000 sticker price, is the only vehicle that seems to qualify. Meanwhile, the old hybrid-car tax credit of up to $3,150 is still available for certain models but not the most popular ones.

2. ENERGY ACT OF 2007 INCLUDED CELLULOSIC BIOFUEL INCENTIVES

SK/C04.02) Megan Phelps, MOTHER EARTH NEWS, April-May 2008, p. 21, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The good news is that the new law [Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007] favors advanced biofuels.

3. AUTO INDUSTRY IS ADJUSTING TO MARKET CHANGES

SK/C04.03) Jennifer Weeks, CQ RESEARCHER, February 29, 2008, p. 210. Now, with gas prices high and new fuel-efficiency standards signed into law, U.S. automakers are terminating some SUV lines, converting others to smaller "crossovers" and putting more money into alternative vehicles.

SK/C04.04) Rana Foroohar, NEWSWEEK INTERNATIONAL, June 9, 2008, pNA, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Ford has slashed production of its F-series pickup trucks, an American best seller for 20 years. Meanwhile, Nissan unveiled a $115 million new plant outside Tokyo designed to build lithium-ion fuel cells to power a new generation of battery cars.

4. ELECTRIC VEHICLES AND PLUG-IN HYBRIDS ARE ALMOST HERE

SK/C04.05) James B. Treece, AUTOMOTIVE NEWS, November 17, 2008, p. 3, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Electric and plug- in hybrid cars will arrive in dealerships in just two years or so, several speakers at the Automotive News Green Car Conference and Exhibition said on Thursday, Nov. 13.

SK/C04.06) James B. Treece, AUTOMOTIVE NEWS, November 17, 2008, p. 3, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Talk about plug-in hybrids has centered on the Chevrolet Volt, Saturn Vue plug-in and Toyota Prius plug-in hybrid, all due in 2009 or 2010. But more electric-powered cars are coming. In 2010, Nissan Motor Co.'s first electric vehicle will be launched in select markets. In 2012, it rolls out globally. 5. ALL VEHICLES WILL BY HYBRIDS BY 2020

SK/C04.07) MOTOR AGE, September 2008, p. 72, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The results of a recent study predict the future of automotives: all vehicles will run on hybrid power by 2020. Conducted by IBM Global Business Services, the study interviewed 125 global industry executives who report all vehicles will have some type of hybrid power system within 12 years. Options could include micro hybrids that power down when a vehicle is stopped, regenerative braking that builds power when a vehicle is stopping, mild hybrids that provide extra power but cannot run independently or full hybrids that can run on electric motors.

6. HYDROGEN-FUELED CARS WILL BE HERE BEFORE 2020

SK/C04.08) AUTOMOTIVE NEWS, November 26, 2007, p. 33, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Whether used to power fuel cells or internal combustion engines, hydrogen promises to be a cleaner fuel than gasoline or diesel. BMW launched a small fleet of its hydrogen-fueled 7-series sedans last year. General Motors is letting folks in three cities drive its hydrogen Chevrolet Equinox crossovers. When it will reach the market: Between 2010 and 2020.

SK/C04.09) Eli Kintisch, DISCOVER, January 2007, p. 20, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. In September both companies [BMW & GM] announced plans for hydrogen-capable cars. The hydrogen would be derived from fossil fuels while researchers explore other methods of production. GM's fuel cell SUV, Sequel, operates with an energy efficiency equivalent to 39 miles per gallon of gasoline.

SK/C04.10) AUTOMOTIVE NEWS, February 25, 2008, p. 4, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Each of the Detroit 3 is spending more on hydrogen r&d for fuel cell vehicles than the federal government, the GAO report notes. Each automaker has indicated plans to spend an additional $6 billion to $10 billion through 2015.

7. VEHICLES ALREADY RUN ON NATURAL GAS & LIQUEFIED COAL

SK/C04.11) James Eaves [Professor of Finance & Insurance, Laval University, Canada] & Stephen Eaves, REGULATION, Fall 2007, p. 24, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. If the objective of promoting ethanol is to rely more on domestic energy sources, then perhaps it would be more efficient to use natural gas and liquefied coal to power cars. Vehicles compatible with those energy sources have been operating on U.S. roadways for years, and reliance on those fuels would not disrupt the food supply. SK/C05. BICYCLES ARE AN ALTERNATIVE

1. BAILOUT LAW INCLUDED INCENTIVES FOR BICYCLES

SK/C05.01) Ashlea Ebeling, FORBES, November 24, 2008, p. 150, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Congress even found a place in the bailout for a bicycle tax benefit--an idea that Representative Earl Blumenauer (D--Ore.), who bikes to work, has been peddling for years. Beginning in 2009 employers who provide transit benefits (either pretax salary reduction plans or prepaid vouchers) for bus, train, van pooling or parking can provide up to $20 a month in tax-free bicycling benefits.

2. USE OF BICYCLES IS INCREASING

SK/C05.02) Adam Voiland, U.S. NEWS & WORLD REPORT, June 20, 2008, pNA, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. In a country where most grown-ups regard bicycles as kid stuff, there are plenty of signs that attitudes are beginning to shift. Bike stores and manufacturers across the nation are reporting significant upticks lately in sales. "They're selling out of all the commuting bikes--all bikes, by the way--that they can get their hands on," says Bill Fields, a consultant who has followed the bicycle industry for decades and anticipates a 20 percent bump in the "comfort bike" category, which includes commuting bikes, by year's end.

SK/C05.03) Lester R. Brown [President, Earth Policy Institute], USA TODAY MAGAZINE, January 2008, p. 27, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Bicycle manufacturing and servicing is a booming industry. As recently as 1965, world production of cars and bikes essentially was the same, with each at nearly 20,000,000, but bike production has climbed to well over 100,000,000 per year compared with around 42,000,000 cars.

SK/C05.04) Lester R. Brown [President, Earth Policy Institute], THE FUTURIST, November-December 2008, p. 10, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Complete Streets promotes pedestrian- and bike-friendly design in urban centers. Barbara McCann, head of the Coalition, reports that as of July 2007, "complete streets" policies are in place in 14 states and 52 cities. Countries that have well-developed urban transit systems and a mature bicycle infrastructure are much better positioned to withstand the stresses of a downturn in world oil production than are countries whose only transport option is the car. With a full array of walking and biking options, the number of trips by car can easily be cut by 10%-20%

SK/C05.05) Lester R. Brown [President, Earth Policy Institute], THE FUTURIST, November-December 2008, p. 10, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Today, nearly 75% of U.S. police departments serving populations of 50,000 or more have routine patrols by bicycle. Officers on bikes typically make 50% more arrests per day than officers in squad cars. The cost of operating a bicycle is trivial compared with that of a police car, according to the U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics. SK/C06. ALTERNATIVE FUELS CANNOT REPLACE GASOLINE

1. THERE IS NO SUBSTITUTE FOR GASOLINE

SK/C06.01) J. Robinson West, U.S. NEWS & WORLD REPORT, July 21, 2008, p. 15, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Many politicians want to substitute other domestically produced liquid fuels for oil and assure the public that they are around the corner. They are not. There is now no liquid fuel that can largely replace oil for transportation. We are stuck because of the scale of the industry and--despite criticism--oil's efficiency. A gallon of gas, refined from African oil, is cheaper than a gallon of Maine sparkling water. Political alternatives like corn-based ethanol have required huge subsidies and convulsed food markets but produced only 430,000 barrels per day in 2007-- 2 percent of U.S. oil consumption.

2. ENERGY INDEPENDENCE IS A SHAM

SK/C06.02) Paul Roberts, MOTHER JONES, May-June 2008, p. 30, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Despite its immense appeal, energy independence is a nonstarter--a populist charade masquerading as energy strategy that's no more likely to succeed (and could be even more damaging) than it was when Nixon declared war on foreign oil in the 1970s. Not only have we no realistic substitute for the oceans of oil we import, but many of the crash programs being touted as a way to quickly develop oil replacements--"clean coal," for example, or biofuels--come at a substantial environmental and political cost.

SK/C06.03) J. Robinson West, U.S. NEWS & WORLD REPORT, July 21, 2008, p. 15, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. "Energy independence" is a favored placebo--a rarely defined goal trotted out for energy crises but not achieved. A sensible definition: a condition in which foreign powers can neither interrupt our energy supplies nor affect prices. Such "independence" will be unattainable under John McCain or Barack Obama. We cannot decouple U.S. petroleum prices from world markets. Oil is easily transported, and barrels are interchangeable. Rising prices in Houston mean the same in Riyadh, Rotterdam, and Tokyo. Even if we exported oil--we have not for nearly 60 years--foreign forces would still drive domestic prices.

SK/C06.04) Mortimer B. Zuckerman, U.S. NEWS & WORLD REPORT, July 21, 2008, p. 118, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The American people are not foolish. Every day we have a lesson in the surging cost of oil; we know that the dream of energy independence is really just a delusion for a country that produces only a third of the oil it uses. Whatever the rhetoric, no combination of solar, wind, ethanol, biodiesel, or anything else will allow us independence in the foreseeable future. SK/C06.05) George Leef, REGULATION, Summer 2008, p. 49, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. A political candidate might as well come out against motherhood as to question the need for energy independence. That is too bad because energy independence is a stupendously foolish, costly, and ultimately impossible idea. So argues journalist Robert Bryce in his iconoclastic book Gusher of Lies. Bryce readily admits that until recently he was among those who worshipped in the Church of Energy Independence, but has now become a complete heretic. Instead of increased government meddling, he wants to see it get out of the energy market altogether because there is nothing it can do to improve on the free market and much that will be wasteful and even dangerous.

SK/C06.06) Robert J. Samuelson, NEWSWEEK, August 25, 2008, p. 37, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. In 2006, coal, oil and natural gas provided 85 percent of U.S. energy. In 2025, regardless of what we do, they will almost certainly remain the leading energy sources. We will still import huge volumes of oil and face global disruptions.

SK/C06.07) Robert J. Samuelson, NEWSWEEK, August 25, 2008, p. 37, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Senator McCain proposes achieving "strategic independence" by 2025--a seductive but empty phrase. In 2025, oil would still represent a third or more of total energy use (it was two fifths in 2006), with more than half imported, projects the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Although these figures could change, dependence on foreign oil is unavoidable. SK/C07. ETHANOL IS DOOMED TO FAILURE

1. ETHANOL PRODUCTION YIELDS NO NET INCREASE IN ENERGY

SK/C07.01) Charles J. Murray, DESIGN NEWS, August 11, 2008, p. 59, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Most experts estimate it takes 1 gallon of fossil fuel to create 1.3 gallons of corn-based ethanol, but a few have claimed the process burns more energy than it creates. "Most estimates leave out the energy from farm labor, the energy to make and manufacture the tractor and the energy required for irrigation," says David Pimentel, a Cornell University entomology professor and a former consulting ecologist to the White House staff. "By omitting nearly half of the inputs, they're able to demonstrate that the corn plant is collecting more energy than it takes to make the ethanol. But it just isn't true."

2. ETHANOL CAN DISPLACE ONLY MINISCULE AMOUNT OF GASOLINE

SK/C07.02) James Eaves [Professor of Finance & Insurance, Laval University, Canada] & Stephen Eaves, REGULATION, Fall 2007, p. 24, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. When we assume the ethanol production process is fully renewable, it would take all the corn in the country to displace about 3.5 percent of our gasoline consumption--only slightly more than we could displace by making sure drivers' tires are inflated properly.

3. ETHANOL USAGE ACTUALLY INCREASES CARBON EMISSIONS

SK/C07.03) Benjamin Senauer [Professor of Applied Economics, U. of Minnesota], AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, December 2008, p. 1226, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. A central argument for biofuels, that they reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared to fossil fuels, has been undermined by recently published scientific articles. Fargione et al. (2008) calculate that the expansion of biofuels results in the conversion of natural ecosystems to agricultural use, which creates a "carbon debt" by releasing the CO2 stored in the natural biomass and undisturbed soil. This conversion creates a debt 17 to 420 times greater than the annual reduction in GHG emissions from biofuels compared to fossil fuels, depending on the crop and native ecosystem. Converting wild Brazilian cerrado (savanna) to sugarcane production takes 17 years to repay the carbon debt, and 423 years for peatland rainforest in Southeast Asia converted to palm oil for biodiesel.

SK/C07.04) Benjamin Senauer [Professor of Applied Economics, U. of Minnesota], AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, December 2008, p. 1226, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Searchinger et al. (2008) argue that natural habitats will be converted to new cropland in response to the higher prices caused by the conversion of crops to biofuels. Due to land use changes, corn-based ethanol, instead of producing a 20% reduction in GHG emissions as previously calculated, doubles emissions over 30 years and increases GHG for 167 years. It was recently reported that 750,000 acres of Brazilian rainforest (an area the size of Rhode Island) was destroyed in just the last half of 2007 due to the spread of cropland and pasture (Grunwald 2008). U.S. farmers are beginning to remove substantial amounts of land from the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) (Streitfeld 2008). 4. ETHANOL IS VULNERABLE TO SUPPLY INTERRUPTIONS

SK/C07.05) James Eaves [Professor of Finance & Insurance, Laval University, Canada] & Stephen Eaves, REGULATION, Fall 2007, p. 24, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Relying on ethanol exposes the economy to an entirely new risk--an undesirable link between ethanol supply disruptions and ethanol demand shocks created by their joint dependency on weather. In the case of gasoline, there is no obvious link. For example, during a particularly hot and dry summer the demand and price for gasoline increases as we drive longer distances to escape the heat, spend more time on congested roads, and use our air conditioning more often. But the hot weather does not increase the cost of producing gasoline, so increases in the price of gas have an unambiguously positive impact on the supply of gas.

5. USE OF ETHANOL WILL INCREASE RESPIRATORY DEATHS

SK/C07.06) Tracy Hampton, JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION, May 16, 2007, p. 2068, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Many of the vehicles in the U.S. run on ethanol as an alternative fuel instead of gasoline. But the number of respiratory-related deaths and hospitalization would likely increase due to it.

6. ETHANOL PRODUCTION CAUSES MASS STARVATION

a. PRODUCTION FROM CORN CAUSES FOOD PRICES TO SOAR

SK/C07.07) Benjamin Senauer [Professor of Applied Economics, U. of Minnesota], AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, December 2008, p. 1226, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Both the Economist (2007) and Lester Brown (2008) argue that biofuels, especially U.S. corn-based ethanol, were the primary cause of the surge in prices in 2007. U.S. ethanol production basically doubled between 2004 and 2007 and, in 2007 removed some 2.3 billion bushels from the global food supply chain (Eidman 2008). The huge increase in the acreage planted to corn in 2007 reduced the plantings of other crops, particularly soybeans, thus increasing their prices.

b. RISING FOOD PRICES CAUSE THOUSANDS TO STARVE

SK/C07.08) Mark Lynas, NEW STATESMAN, April 21, 2008, p. 24, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Now rising demand for transport fuel--particularly in rich countries--is sucking supply away from the world food market and increasing the upward pressure on prices. In the words of Josette Sheeran, executive director of the UN World Food Programme (WFP): "We are seeing food in many places in the world priced at fuel levels," with increasing quantities of food "being bought by energy markets" for biofuels. Rising oil prices feed back into the process. With food and fuel markets intertwined, increases in the price of oil are shadowed by increases in the price of grain. The real-world result from this structural shift may be that hundreds of thousands of people starve in the next few years--unless policies promoting biofuels are urgently reversed. SK/C08. CELLULOSIC BIOFUELS ARE DOOMED TO FAILURE

1. CELLULOSIC BIOFUELS ARE A FANTASY

SK/C08.01) Stephen Spruiell, NATIONAL REVIEW, October 20, 2008, p. 26, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The gang's ["Gang of 10" Senators—five Republicans and five Democrats] proposal called for a sevenfold increase in federal funding for biofuels research--from around $350 million to nearly $3 billion per year. Most of this money would fund research into cellulosic ethanol, which is produced from nonedible plant matter like wood chips and switchgrass. The concept is similar to the "Mr. Fusion" device from Back to the Future: Take a bunch of garbage that nobody wants and turn it into energy. And, like Back to the Future, cellulosic ethanol is pure fantasy.

SK/C08.02) Charles J. Murray, DESIGN NEWS, August 11, 2008, p. 59, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. To be sure, some experts have no more faith in cellulosic than they have in corn-based ethanol. They say cellulosic technology is unproven, largely because there's not a single commercial plant in the world that's converting cellulose to ethanol, despite the large sums of seed money behind it. "Despite all the research, there's no evidence that cellulose is going to be profitable in terms of energy or economics," says Pimentel of Cornell.

SK/C08.03) J. Robinson West, U.S. NEWS & WORLD REPORT, July 21, 2008, p. 15, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Breakthrough technologies, such as cellulosic ethanol, are theoretically attractive--but don't exist.

2. THEY COULD DISPLACE ONLY A MINISCULE AMOUNT OF GASOLINE

SK/C08.04) Hans Greimel, AUTOMOTIVE NEWS, March 3, 2008, p. 10, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. But Takeo Fukui, president of Honda Motor Co., says if the fuel is to go mainstream, it will have to be derived from nonedible biomass, not food crops. That is because supplies of crops such as corn and sugar cane are limited and can't meet demand for food and fuel. Furthermore, even if ethanol is widely produced from biomass such as leaves and stalks, it will only meet 20 percent of the current demand for gasoline, he said here last week.

3. SWITCHGRASS IS NOT A VIABLE ALTERNATIVE

SK/C08.05) Michael Grunwald, TIME, April 7, 2008, p. 40, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. But several new studies show the biofuel boom is doing exactly the opposite of what its proponents intended: it's dramatically accelerating global warming, imperiling the planet in the name of saving it. Corn ethanol, always environmentally suspect, turns out to be environmentally disastrous. Even cellulosic ethanol made from switchgrass, which has been promoted by eco-activists and eco-investors as well as by President Bush as the fuel of the future, looks less green than oil-derived gasoline. 4. BIOFUELS FROM ALGAE ARE NOT A VIABLE ALTERNATIVE

SK/C08.06) Asjylyn Loder, THE ST. PETERSBURG TIMES, September 14, 2008, p. 1D, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Custom Newspapers. Since algae eats carbon dioxide, Tennant [Vice-President, Petro Algae] hopes he can locate algae farms near power plants, and get paid to take their carbon dioxide problem off their hands. Even with these advances, Benneman [consultant, Dept. of Energy] said algae oils will still only supply a fraction of the marketplace for alternative energy. "None of these things are going to replace oil," Benemann said.

5. BIOFUELS FROM WASTE ARE NOT A VIABLE ALTERNATIVE

SK/C08.07) Richard D. Firn, WORLD WATCH, May-June 2008, p. 2, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. "The future of biofuels is cellulosic fuels ... they do not compete for prime cropland ... and even restore degraded lands ...." I was saddened by these quotes from Raya Widenoja's response to Heinrich Smith's timely criticism of biofuels [January/February "From Readers"] because the quotes were based on the new hype that cellulosic fuels will simply use "waste" biomass. There is no waste cellulose. Every cellulose molecule is fuel for some organism and that organism undoubtedly lies at the bottom of some food chain. Consequently the use of crop waste, forest waste, or any other carbon source currently unexploited by humans simply increases the share of the global carbon cycle that humans use. Can you seriously argue that there would be no ecological consequences?

6. CELLULOSIC BIOFUELS THREATEN SURVIVAL OF THE EARTH

a. THEY WILL CAUSE MASSIVE DEFORESTATION

SK/C08.08) Mark Lynas, NEW STATESMAN, April 21, 2008, p. 24, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The industry claims that "second-generation" biofuels, using by-products such as corn stalks and woodchip as a feedstock, will be able to redress the balance. But if this technological advance is achieved (and that is by no means certain) it could usher in an even worse scenario: the annihilation of the world's forests. If all plant life was seen as potentially convertible for transport fuel, there would be nothing to stop what was left of the planet's biosphere from being strip-mined to keep rich motorists on the road.

b. DEFORESTATION WILL BE DEATH KNELL FOR THE PLANET

SK/C08.09) Glen Barry [President, Ecological Internet], SYNTHESIS/REGENERATION, Fall 2007, p. 7, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Coal burning and forest loss have been the leading culprits in climate change to date, and should their continued use at any scale be pursued as the solution to climate change and energy security, it will prove the death- knell for the planet. SK/C09. HYDROGEN IS DOOMED TO FAILURE

1. THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY IS A SHAM

SK/C09.01) Robert Zubrin [President of aerospace engineering & research firm Pioneer Astronautics], THE AMERICAN ENTERPRISE, March 2006, p. 16, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The energy panacea of the moment is a concept called the "hydrogen economy." Theorists propose to transition U.S. energy usage to hydrogen--a common element which, when combined with oxygen, releases energy with only water as a waste product. With hydrogen, it is claimed, we can achieve not only energy independence but also an end to pollution and global warming at the same time. The concept is entirely fraudulent. Hydrogen is not a source of energy. In order to be obtained, it must be made--either through the electrolysis of water, or through the breakdown of petroleum, natural gas, or coal. Either process necessarily consumes more energy than the hydrogen it produces.

SK/C09.02) Robert Zubrin [President of aerospace engineering & research firm Pioneer Astronautics], THE AMERICAN ENTERPRISE, March 2006, p. 16, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. While hydrogen could also be produced by nuclear, hydroelectric, solar, or wind power, the process would continue to be dragged down by the fundamental inefficiency of hydrogen production. Such power supplies could always do more to reduce fossil fuel requirements simply by sending their electric power directly to the grid. The bottom line is that hydrogen is not a source of energy. It is a carrier of energy, and one of the least practical carriers we know of.

SK/C09.03) Robert Zubrin [President of aerospace engineering & research firm Pioneer Astronautics], THE AMERICAN ENTERPRISE, March 2006, p. 16, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. In short, from the point of view of production, distribution, environmental impact, and ease of use, the hydrogen economy makes no sense. Its fundamental premise is at variance with the most basic laws of physics. The charlatans who are promoting hydrogen as a solution to our energy woes are doing the nation an immense disservice.

2. HYDROGEN CANNOT REPLACE GASOLINE

SK/C09.04) Paul Roberts, MOTHER JONES, May-June 2008, p. 30, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. If we distilled our entire corn crop into ethanol, the fuel produced would displace less than a sixth of the gasoline we currently guzzle, and other candidates, like hydrogen, are even more marginal.

3. HYDROGEN WILL INCREASE CARBON EMISSIONS

SK/C09.05) Robert Zubrin [President of aerospace engineering & research firm Pioneer Astronautics], THE AMERICAN ENTERPRISE, March 2006, p. 16, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Hydrogen produced from hydrocarbons instead of water also throws away 40 to 60 percent of the total energy in the feedstock. This method actually increases the nation's need for fossil fuels, as well as greenhouse gas emissions. SK/C10. ELECTRIC VEHICLES ARE DOOMED TO FAILURE

1. ELECTRIC VEHICLES FAIL TO ACHIEVE ENERGY SAVINGS

SK/C10.01) Peter Katel, CQ RESEARCHER, January 4, 2008, p. 14. The reliance on wall current, though, raises the question of whether the plug-ins wind up burning as much energy as the hybrid models now on sale. Alternative-energy advocatrs raise another objection. “If you start plugging in hundreds of cars all at once, you’ll be finding out what the limits of the electricity grid are real quick,” Paul Cass, a representative of Ballard Power Systems, a Canadian firm, told the LOS ANGELES TIMES at an alternative-vehicle convention.

SK/C10.02) Peter Katel, CQ RESEARCHER, January 4, 2008, p. 19. But some energy experts sound a note of caution. Hirsch, who directed the peak-oil study for the Department of Energy, supports plug-ins but says they can create as many problems as they solve. "Imagine you have a lot of plug-in hybrids, enough to make a difference in U.S. oil consumption. Recharging them in off-peak hours - you can do that for a while. But if you're going to have a big impact, then you're going to have to build a lot of power plants.”

2. HYBRIDS DISPLACE ONLY A MINISCULE AMOUNT OF GASOLINE

SK/C10.03) Robert Zubrin [President of aerospace engineering & research firm Pioneer Astronautics], THE AMERICAN ENTERPRISE, March 2006, p. 16, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Even if Americans were to buy only hybrid cars offering a 30 percent fuel saving over existing models, and none of them drove more, and there was no expansion in the U.S. vehicle fleet, this effort would result in only a 3 percent annual reduction in global gasoline use.

3. PLUG-IN HYBRIDS ARE A PASSING FAD

SK/C10.04) AUTOMOTIVE NEWS, February 25, 2008, p. 4, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Auto executives lament what they call "technology du jour” - a tendency to keep seeking new cures for the automobile's ills. In the past 25 years, the list has been topped by methanol, all-electric power, hybrids, fuel cells, ethanol and now plug-in hybrids, they say. The constant changes in priorities are "extremely disruptive and wasteful,” says John German, manager of environmental and energy analysis at American Honda Motor Co.

SK/C10.05) David Rotman [Editor], TECHNOLOGY REVIEW, January- February 2008, p. 42, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Climate change, he [Vinod Khosla, co-founder of Sun Microsystems] says, is "by far the biggest issue" driving his interest in biofuels. If we want to head off climate change and decrease consumption of gasoline, "there are no alternatives" to using cellulosic biofuels for transportation. "Biomass is the only feedstock in sufficient quantities to cost-effectively replace oil," he says. "Nothing else exists." Hybrid and electric vehicles, he adds, are "just toys." SK/C11. LIQUEFIED COAL IS DOOMED TO FAILURE

1. LIQUEFIED COAL INCREASES CARBON EMISSIONS

SK/C11.01) Lamar Alexander [U.S. Senator], ISSUES IN SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY, Summer 2008, p. 39, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Turning coal into liquid fuel is an established technology but expensive and a producer of much carbon.

SK/C11.02) David Hawkins [Director, Climate Center, Natural Resources Defense Council], CQ RESEARCHER, October 5, 2007, p. 833. Coal is a carbon- intensive fuel, containing double the amount of carbon per unit of energy compared to natural gas and about 50 percent more than petroleum. When coal is converted to liquid fuels, two streams of CO2 are produced: one at the liquid-coal production plant and the second from the exhausts of the vehicles that burn the fuel....[E]ven if the CO2 from the synfuel production plant is captured, there is no prospect that liquid fuel made with coal as the sole feedstock can achieve the significant reductions in fossil carbon content that we need to protect the climate.

SK/C11.03) David Hawkins [Director, Climate Center, Natural Resources Defense Council], CQ RESEARCHER, October 5, 2007, p. 833. EPA's analysis finds that without carbon capture life-cycle greenhouse-gas emissions from coal-to-liquid fuels would be more than twice as high as from conventional diesel fuel (118 percent higher). Assuming carbon capture and storage, EPA finds that life-cycle greenhouse-gas emissions from coal-to-liquid fuels would he 3.7 percent higher than from conventional diesel fuel.

SK/C11.04) Matthew Brown, THE HOUSTON CHRONICLE, March 22, 2008, p. 8, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Custom Newspapers. In addition, coal has drawn wide opposition on Capitol Hill, where some leading lawmakers reject claims it can be transformed into a clean fuel. Without emissions controls, experts say coal-to- liquids plants could churn out double the greenhouse gases as oil. "We don't want new sources of energy that are going to make the greenhouse gas problem even worse," House Oversight Committee Chairman Henry Waxman, D-Calif., said.

SK/C11.05) Darrin Younker, E, March-April 2008, p. 10, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. According to Rich, fuel produced at his plant would reduce greenhouse gases and provide a ready source of American energy, in sharp contrast to the instability of Mideast oil. "We are cleaner, we are safer and we are cheaper," Rich says. "We are cleaning up the atmosphere." Those claims are hard to support. Although the plant would produce fuel that is virtually free of sulfur dioxide and particulate matter, the process of making it would spew more than 2.2 million tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere each year. A Department of Energy (DOE) review of the project concedes that the facility would emit CO2 at levels 80 percent above those produced by oil refining and automotive exhaust. 2. LIQUEFIED COAL INCREASES WATER POLLUTION

SK/C11.06) Darrin Younker, E, March-April 2008, p. 10, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. John W. Rich, Jr., president of Waste Management and Processors, believes the solution to America's energy crisis lies in this heap of waste. Since 1997, Rich has pursued an $800 million coal-to-liquids (CLT) plant in rural Mahanoy Township, Pennsylvania. He was the first to propose building a CLT plant in the U.S. Using South African technology, the plant would take coal waste and transform it into a fuel Rich claims is more environmentally friendly than conventional gasoline. But environmental groups charge that this "clean" technology is downright filthy.

SK/C11.07) Darrin Younker, E, March-April 2008, p. 10, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Mike Ewall, director of the Philadelphia-based ActionPA, has fought Rich's proposal since its inception. Besides CO2, Ewall points out, the plant would produce toxic coal ash, 400 tons of sludge, and discharge 1.6 billion gallons of wastewater into local creeks. "This is the worst way we could produce liquid fuels," he says.

3. LIQUEFIED COAL EXACERBATES WATER SHORTAGES

SK/C11.08) David Hawkins [Director, Climate Center, Natural Resources Defense Council], CQ RESEARCHER, October 5, 2007, p. 833. According to the Department of Energy's Idaho National Lib, approximately 12-14 barrels of water are used for every barrel of liquid coal. Therefore the water requirement necessary to meet the needs of an 80,000 BPD [barrels per day] liquid-coal plant could require sourcing about 40 million gallons of water per day (14 billion gallons per year). The 40 million gallons of water per day needed for an 80,000 BPD liquid coal facility is enough water to meet the domestic needs of more than 200,000 people. . . . There are already serious water-supply problems in Western states such as Montana and Wyoming, where most of our cheap coal supplies are located. . . .

4. ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGE OUTWEIGHS BENEFITS

SK/C11.09) David Hawkins [Director, Climate Center, Natural Resources Defense Council], CQ RESEARCHER, October 5, 2007, p. 833. The impacts that a large liquid-coal program could have on global warming pollution, conventional air pollution and damage from expanded coal production are substantial - so substantial that using coal to make liquid fuel would likely create far worse problems than it attempts to solve. SK/C12. AUTO INDUSTRY WILL CIRCUMVENT MANDATES

1. AUTO INDUSTRY HAS CIRCUMVENTED PAST MANDATES

SK/C12.01) Harry Stoffer, AUTOMOTIVE NEWS, February 11, 2008, p. 3, Online, GAGE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. One example of unintended consequence: The law's milder standards for "work trucks” open a loophole through which automakers can drive an array of big, luxurious pickups, says environmeal activist John DeCicco. "Manufacturers have proven adept” at exploiting legal definitions, says DeCicco, a longtime student of the corporate average fuel economy program, or CAFE. Analysts identify other possible unanticipated outcomes of the CAFE law passed late last year: Automakers may take advantage of planned sliding scales for fuel economy targets by pushing wheels out to vehicles' far corners to qualify for softer regulations. Although the law aims to encourage higher mpg through new technology, automakers instead could rely on cutting vehicle weight to meet standards, with a possible negative impact on occupant safety.

SK/C12.02) Harry Stoffer, AUTOMOTIVE NEWS, February 11, 2008, p. 3, Online, GAGE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The first federal fuel economy law, enacted in 1975, had much tougher standards for cars than for trucks. The different treatment spawned new classes of vehicles: minivans, SUVs and crossovers. Many consumers were unhappy with scaled-down and underpowered, if more efficient, cars. So the industry responded with vehicles that met the loose legal definition of trucks and qualified for the milder standards. The result: the truck boom that effectively ended fuel economy gains 20 years ago.

2. AUTO INDUSTRY WILL PAY PENALTIES FOR VIOLATING MANDATES

SK/C12.03) Harry Stoffer, AUTOMOTIVE NEWS, February 11, 2008, p. 3, Online, GAGE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Cohen [chief Washington lobbyist for Honda North America Inc.] also suspects that more companies may choose to pay fines for CAFE violations than in the past, because the cost of compliance with the new, tougher standards will be higher. Traditionally, only makers of premium vehicles notably Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Porsche - have paid such fines.

SK/C12.04) Harry Stoffer, AUTOMOTIVE NEWS, February 11, 2008, p. 3, Online, GAGE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The nation's new fuel economy law could have unintended effects on vehicle design and safety, industry analysts say. And some industry executives suggest that more automakers may choose to pay penalties for breaking the law rather than build vehicles the companies fear customers may reject. SK/C13. AUTO INDUSTRY BANKRUPTCY WILL DESTROY ECONOMY

1. AUTO INDUSTRY IS ON THE VERGE OF BANKRUPTCY

SK/C13.01) Jamie LaReau, AUTOMOTIVE NEWS, November 17, 2008, p. 1, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. In two to four months, GM will run out of cash and turn out the lights. Only government money can prevent that. Every other alternative is fantasy. The $25 billion in loans that Congress approved to partially fund improvements in fuel economy? Irrelevant. Dead automakers do not invest in technology. The collapse of credit has crushed the American car market, dried up revenues for the Detroit 3 and highlighted their weaknesses. Each of the Detroit 3 is in crisis.

SK/C13.02) Bill Saporito, TIME, November 24, 2008, p. 35, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. For months, General motors had been telling everyone who would listen that bankruptcy was not an option. It had a $30 billion cash pile and plans to restructure the company as the economy rebounded and 2007 U.S. auto sales topped 16 million units. Then came October. Sales plummeted an astounding 45% over the same period last year, a result of a slowing economy and a dearth of financing for would-be car buyers. Total U.S. car and light-truck sales this year could come in at 13.5 million, 2.6 million fewer than last year. "That's in nobody's business plan," says Kimberly Rodriguez, an automotive specialist with Grant Thornton. "The best planning in the world cannot survive that fluctuation." It's now clear that GM can't survive as an ongoing entity without massive federal assistance.

SK/C13.03) Amanda Ruggeri, U.S. NEWS & WORLD REPORT, November 18, 2008, pNA, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. General Motors, for example, may have to file for bankruptcy within weeks, and yesterday sold its 3 percent stake in Japanese carmaker Suzuki to try to raise cash. Meanwhile, Ford announced today that it will sell its 20 percent stake in Japanese auto company Mazda.

2. MANDATING FUEL ALTERNATIVES WILL TRIGGER CATASTROPHE

SK/C13.04) Craig S. Marxsen [Associate Professor of Economics, U. of Nebraska-Kearney], INDEPENDENT REVIEW, Spring 2008, p. 537, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Devotees of the collapse hypothesis have helped propel a regulatory campaign to discourage investment in petroleum-refining capacity, naively hoping both to head off exhaustion of fossil resources and to prevent an alleged global-warming crisis they fear will come after the lifetimes of people now living. The real threat of economic collapse, however, springs from the fright-induced failure to invest in refining and fuel-synthesizing capacity. Belief in the catastrophists' collapse hypothesis thus itself threatens to bring real catastrophe to our modern industrial world. SK/C13.05) AUTOMOTIVE NEWS, March 3, 2008, p. 12, Online, GAGE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Meeting CAFE will be expensive. Meeting California standards, too, could be crippling. Automakers might be forced to build a single fleet that meets California standards, even though they already say they may have trouble selling vehicles to Americans that meet the less stringent federal standards.

3. GOVERNMENT CANNOT PREDICT VIABLE TECHNOLOGY FOR 2040

SK/C13.06) James B. Meigs [Editor], POPULAR MECHANICS, February 2008, p. 54, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. In fact, governments generally have a bad track record when it comes to picking technologies. In the midst of an earlier oil crunch, President Jimmy Carter seized on "synfuels"--refined from oil shale deposits--as a panacea. Oops. Synfuels turned out to be woefully uneconomic, environmentally disastrous and feasible only with massive government subsidies. It took years to kill the program off--and the last of the multibillion-dollar tax credits just expired in 2007.

SK/C13.07) David Rotman [Editor], TECHNOLOGY REVIEW, March-April 2008, p. 90, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. History provides a lesson about the messiness of predicting the market for an energy technology. Almost three decades ago, as the price of oil reached $40 a barrel and many expels worried that it was headed for $80 or even $100, President Jimmy Carter signed the Energy Security Act of 1980. As is the case today, the high price of oil was straining the U.S. economy, and the Middle East was unstable. One key provision of the 1980 legislation created the U.S. Synthetic Fuels Corporation, which was meant to establish a domestic industry that produced liquid fuel from tar sands, shale, and coal. Despite the unknowns surrounding the economics of producing synthetic fuels on a large scale, engineers estimated that they could be produced for $60 a barrel. An initial production target was set at 500,000 barrels a day. But in the early 1980s, the price of oil fell to $20 a barrel. With no prospect of producing synthetic fuels at a price competitive with that of oil, the Synthetic Fuels Corporation was finally shuttered in 1986.

SK/C13.08) David Rotman [Editor], TECHNOLOGY REVIEW, March-April 2008, p. 90, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Deutch [former U.S. Undersecretary of Energy, and now Professor of Chemistry, MIT] believes that instead of targeting specific production levels, government should participate in the development of alternative fuel technologies by helping to assess their economics and determine whether they meet environmental expectations. The Synthetic Fuels Corporation and today's Renewable Fuels Standard differ in many ways. But the efforts behind them do reflect a common theme: the federal government's attempt to select a particular technology and create a market for it. The "harsh reality" is that such measures "are unlikely to be effective over the long term," Deutch says. "And nowhere is this more obvious than in ethanol." SK/C13.09) Paul Roberts, MOTHER JONES, May-June 2008, p. 30, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. First, because the transition will require so much old energy, we may get only one chance: If we find ourselves in 2028 having backed the wrong clusters of technologies or policies, and are still too dependent on oil, there may not be enough crude left in the ground to fuel a second try.

4. AUTO INDUSTRY BANKRUPTCY WILL DESTROY U.S. ECONOMY

SK/C13.10) Jamie LaReau, AUTOMOTIVE NEWS, November 17, 2008, p. 1, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Let's be clear. The alternative to government cash for GM is not a dreamy Chapter 11 filing and reorganization that puts dealers and the UAW in their place, ensuring future success. No, even if GM could get debtor-in-possession financing to keep the lights on (which it can't), Chapter 11 means a collapse of sales and a spiral into a Chapter 7 liquidation. GM's 100,000 American jobs will die. Health care for a million Americans will be lost or at risk. Hundreds of GM's 1,300 suppliers will die. Their collapse could take down Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler LLC, perhaps even North American transplants. Dealerships in every county of America will close. The government will face more people unemployed, without health insurance and even without pensions.

SK/C13.11) David Sedgwick, AUTOMOTIVE NEWS, November 10, 2008, p. 1, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. The view in many Detroit offices: Like falling dominoes, the collapse of GM or Chrysler would force many suppliers out of business. In turn, those bankrupt suppliers would knock out Ford Motor Co.'s production, cripple transplant automakers' assembly plants and shut down thousands of dealerships.

SK/C13.12) David Sedgwick, AUTOMOTIVE NEWS, November 10, 2008, p. 1, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. If one or more of the Detroit 3 lurch into bankruptcy, the ripple effect would knock out many of their suppliers and the North American assembly plants of Asian and European automakers that buy components from those suppliers. Last week the Center for Automotive Research, a consulting firm in suburban Detroit, released a study estimating that the bankruptcy of one or two of the Detroit 3 automakers would trigger the loss of nearly 240,000 automaker jobs, 795,000 supplier jobs and 1.4 million jobs in the general economy. John Wolkonowicz, an analyst for Global Insight in Lexington, Mass., questions whether suppliers could survive unscathed after a Detroit 3 bankruptcy. "If GM goes down, it will take down companies like Lear and Johnson Controls, Wolkonowicz says. "That will shut Ford down, and it would shut down production at Toyota and Honda. They would go down like dominoes. One supplier CEO, who asked not to be identified, said a Detroit 3 bankruptcy would be a death blow to the industry. "If GM filed for bankruptcy, the impact would be so catastrophic that it would make the current industrial downturn look like a walk in the park.” SK/C13.13) Bill Saporito, TIME, November 24, 2008, p. 35, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Although the Detroit Three directly employed about 240,000 people last year, according to the industry-allied Center for Automotive Research (CAR) in Ann Arbor, Mich., the multiplier effect is large, which is typical in manufacturing. Throw in the partsmakers and other suppliers, and you have an additional 974,000 jobs. Together, says CAR, these 1.2 million workers spend enough to keep 1.7 million more people employed. That gets you to 2.9 million jobs tied to the Detroit Three, and even if you discount the figures because of CAR's allegiance, it's a big number. Shut down Detroit, and the national unemployment rate heads toward 10% in a hurry.

SK/C13.14) Bill Saporito, TIME, November 24, 2008, p. 35, Online, GALE CENGAGE LEARNING, Expanded Academic ASAP. Even if just one of the Detroit Three--and GM is the most likely, as Ford is in better shape and Chrysler is much smaller--spiraled into a free-fall bankruptcy, the systemic effects, at least initially, would be huge. The whole industry would not be able to build cars in the U.S., because of the lack of parts. "Unlike the airlines or steel, when you look at the automobile industry and the fact that the whole supplier base is connected--to Ford, Chrysler, Toyota--it will have a ripple effect on the entire industry," says Nicole Y. Lamb-Hale, a bankruptcy expert at the Detroit office of Foley & Lardner, a law firm that represents some GM suppliers.

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