SNP Leader Nicola Sturgeon Has Declared That Her Party Has Won a Historic Third Victory

SCOTLAND ELECTIONS 2016

Scotland Results 65 seats needed for a majority Scottish Parliament Results SNP Scottish LAB GRN CON Scottish LD Scottish IND Party National Scottish Scottish Conservatives Lib Dems Independent Party Labour Green Party Seats 63 31 24 6 5 0 Change −6 +16 −13 +4 - −1 Change −6 +16 −13 +4 - −1

After 129 of 129 seats Results in full SeatsChange

Latest headlines

1. Victory for the SNP with 63 seats - two short of a majority 2. Conservatives are the second largest party on 31 seats - but Labour on 24 lost 13 seats 3. Scottish Greens are the fourth largest party with six seats, ahead of the Lib Dems who won five 4. See the changing political map of Scotland

SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon has declared that her party has won a historic third victory in the Holyrood election - but it did not manage an overall majority.

The SNP won 63 seats - two short of a majority which it enjoyed in the last parliament with 69 seats.

The Conservatives are the second largest party on 31. Labour had a dismal night taking 24 seats - down 13.

The Scottish Greens are the fourth largest party with six seats, ahead of the Liberal Democrats who won five.

The SNP would have needed 65 seats to have a majority, a feat it managed in 2011 despite the voting system being designed to prevent one party having overall control. In 2007, the SNP was the largest party, with one seat more than Labour, but formed a minority government

Scotland's Additional Member System sees 73 constituency MSPs elected through first-past-the- post and 56 regional MSPs elected, from eight electoral regions, through a form of proportional representation.

The SNP dominated the constituency vote taking 59 of the 73 seats - an increase of six on the 2011 election.

The Conservatives won seven, four up on last time, and the Liberal Democrats took four, an increase of two. The big loser was Labour which won three seats - down 12.

Regional results

The SNP's dominance was not reflected in the proportional regional system.

The SNP has four regional MSPs - down 12; the Conservatives have 24, up 12; Labour was down one, to 21; the Scottish Greens have six, up four; and the Liberal Democrats won one regional seat, down two on their previous result.

Holyrood 2016: Labour - the morning after the night before

By Sarah Smith

Kezia Dugdale vowed to stay on as Scottish Labour leader

It never feels good for any politician to wake up the morning after an election defeat. Today it's hard to imagine many senior Labour figures got much sleep at all last.

No doubt lying awake contemplating their humiliating defeat by the Tories who knocked them decisively into third place.

But also having to ask deeper existential questions about whether there is still a place for the Labour party in the Scottish political landscape.

Labour can spend the next few days and weeks asking if it was their polices that voters didn't like.

Was it a mistake to offer to raise income tax for almost every taxpayer in Scotland? Was it their young and inexperienced leader who has only been in the job nine short months? Was Jeremy Corbyn's leadership a factor?

But arguments over their manifesto or personalities are to miss the point. This election was clearly about the constitution. Independence question

Scottish politics are still totally dominated by the independence question which was certainly not settled on 18 September 2014 and still seems to take precedence in voters' minds over any other issue. And it's an issue on which Labour cannot win.

"We have to get our story straight on where we stand on independence", is what very depressed Labour figures were telling me on Thursday night. But they had different ideas about what that story should be.

Labour can never form another government in Holyrood or win back many of their Westminster seats unless they appeal to former Labour voters who have now decided they favour an independent Scotland and are currently voting SNP.

But what we learned last night was that if Labour don't take a hard line on their support for the union they haemorrhage votes to the Tories.

Labour tried to reach out to Yes voters by saying that if there was another referendum Labour politicians would be free to campaign on either side.

Kezia Dugdale even suggested in one interview that she might consider voting for independence in the event of a Brexit but then tried to row back from that - whilst also saying that she resolutely opposed the idea of having another referendum and would vigorously campaign for a no vote if there was to be another indyref.

That left space for the Tories to proclaim themselves the only true party of the Union.

They accused Labour of being soft on independence and it seems to have worked. The roughly 10% of voters the Tories seem to have grabbed from Labour are largely unionists who wanted to express their opposition to independence at the ballot box once more.

So where does that leave Labour? If the SNP are the party of independence and the Tories the party of the union, what is the point of the Labour Party? They will continue to argue that they care most about social justice and poverty. But as long as voters remain split over the constitution that may not win back many voters.

One small consolation for Scottish labour leader Kezia Dugdale - it seems unlikely she will face a leadership challenge even despite this terrible result.

Why? Partly because Labour have finally realised changing leaders every time they lose an election hasn't helped.

But mostly because no-one wants the job of Scottish labour leader right now. And who can blame them? Everything you need to know about the Holyrood elections

What you need to know about the Holyrood elections in which Scotland’s 4 million voters will elect 129 MSPs

How many MSPs sit at Holyrood?

129 MSPs sit for a five-year fixed term, with one chosen to become presiding officer, equivalent to the Speaker in the House of Commons, who sits on a non-party basis.

How are they elected?

Scotland’s 4 million voters cast two votes each: a constituency vote to elect 73 MSPs in first-past- the-post contests and a regional list vote to elect 56 more from eight regions, who are selected proportionately.

How does the regional system work?

The seven list seats are allocated by party to ensure that the grand total of constituency and list seats in each region is as proportional as possible to each party’s share of the list vote. This uses the D’Hondt system of proportional representation (PR).

So if one party wins all or the vast majority of the constituency seats in a region, it is very unlikely to receive a list seat unless it also has a substantial proportion of list votes. It is on this vote that the smaller parties hope to make gains.

What do the polls show?

All the polls give the Scottish National party a commanding and, with only two weeks until polling, unassailable lead over the nearest rival, Scottish Labour. The SNP is at more than 50% and about 21% are opting for Labour. Polling experts believe that puts Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP leader, on course for an even larger majority than the 69 seats won by her predecessor Alex Salmond, in 2011, with the SNP potentially winning 70 seats or more. After winning 37 seats five years ago, Labour is likely to be hit severely, losing up to 15 seats. Some polls put the Tories close behind Labour, threatening a huge upset by coming second.

Could the SNP win even more seats?

Not easily, says Prof John Curtice, a polling expert with Strathclyde University. Unless the SNP’s list vote climbs much higher than the 45% or so at present, a list vote for the SNP is very likely to be wasted. Because it is due to win the large majority of constituency seats in each region, the PR system will allocate more or all list seats to all its rivals.

This offers Scottish Labour, the Tories and Liberal Democrats the biggest hope for winning seats. But it also presents a significant challenge for smaller parties, such as the Scottish Greens, because it cuts the number of available list seats, and fringe parties such as the UK Independence party or the socialist-green alliance Rise.

Even so the polls suggest the Green vote is strong enough for it come fourth for the first time, consigning the Liberal Democrats to a humiliating fifth position at Holyrood.