Great Power Competition in the International System

IGA-116 GREAT POWER COMPETITION IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

Professor Nicholas Burns Autumn 2015 M/W 10:15 – 11:30 AM Littauer 230 (Harvard Kennedy School campus)

Contact:  Professor Nicholas Burns: [email protected], L374, 617- 496-3255  Alison Hillegeist, Faculty Assistant: [email protected], L372, 617-495-2495  Josh Atwood, Course Assistant: [email protected]  Dan Severson, Course Assistant: [email protected]  Torrey Taussig, Research Assistant: [email protected]

Office hours: M/W 1:30 – 3:00 pm* A sign-up sheet will be distributed electronically at the beginning of the semester. *Dates/times will vary throughout the semester. Please check date/time on sign-up sheet when you sign-up to note any variation to normal office hours schedule.

Professor Burns will offer a course discussion hour weekly that is not mandatory. Time/day will vary throughout the semester. Weekly discussion session dates/times will be announced in class and posted as announcements on the course website.

COURSE DESCRIPTION

This course will focus on the future balance of power in the world and cooperation as well as competition among the 21st Century Great Powers. We will study the rise of China, India and Brazil to global power in the decades ahead and assess whether these countries are prepared and willing to lead effectively. We will look closely at the changing nature of American power. In addition, we will focus on the relationship between the United States and China and their likely competition for strategic influence in the Asia-Pacific region. We will also investigate whether the Russian Federation and European Union will be more or less influential in the future. The major objective of the course is to reflect on how this group of countries and other regional powers can work together to address some of the principal challenges of the new century including on climate change, avoiding conflict in the South and East China Seas, limiting nuclear proliferation, enhancing cooperation on energy, and dealing with the dilemma of intervention in regional wars worldwide.

ASSIGNMENTS AND GRADING

Students should commit to be well prepared for class and to engage in discussion and debate. I will encourage active class participation with cold calling as the norm. Each of you will be assigned to a team to represent one of the countries that are the focus of the course. Each team will be asked to research and make presentations in class on topics to be assigned.

Individual Class Discussion/Participation 20% Team Briefings 20% 1 Two (2) memos on major policy issues 30% Final Oral Exam 30%

REQUIRED READINGS

I am assigning one book for you to purchase at the COOP or online:  Ikenberry, John G. Liberal Leviathan. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2011 In addition, I will assign other required readings for each class. Except for the above book, all readings will be posted electronically on the course page. I will designate still other, non-mandatory readings under the rubric “For Further Exploration” for those interested in delving more deeply into particular issues. As this is a course that looks at several contemporary global issues, students are encouraged to read a major international newspaper daily and The Economist weekly, which is available for free online in the Harvard Library system’s e-resources. Students are also encouraged to post articles and discussion topics and to start conversations on the course website.

COURSE CALENDAR

Tuesday, Sept 1– Shopping Day 8:45 – 9:15 am (Session I) 9:30 – 10:00 am (Session II) Location: Littauer 140

Wednesday, September 2 – The Four Maps: The Changing Global Power Balance

Friday, September 4 – The Current World Order Required readings:  Ikenberry, John G., Liberal Leviathan: The Origins, Crisis and Transformation of the American World Order, pp 1-27; 35-77; 119-156; 159-219 (TEXT)  Kissinger, Henry. Diplomacy, Ch. “The New World Order,” pp 17-28  Walt, Stephen. “The End of the American Era,” The National Interest. Nov/Dec 2011, October 25, 2011  Fisher, Max. “40 more maps that explain the world,” The Washington Post, January 13, 2014.  Patrick, Stewart. “The unruled world: The case for good enough global governance,” Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb 2014.  Posner, Eric, “Sorry, America, the New World Order Is Dead,” Foreign Policy, May 6, 2014

Monday, September 7 – NO CLASS (Labor Day)

Wednesday, September 9 – The Shifting Global Balance of Power Required readings:  Ikenberry, John. Liberal Leviathan, pp 221-277 (TEXT)  National Intelligence Defense Council, “Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds.” Executive Summary pp i – xiv  Haass, Richard N. “The Age of Nonpolarity: What Will Follow U.S. Dominance,” Foreign Policy, May/June 2008

2  Ignatius, David. “An emerging markets problem,” The Washington Post, January 22, 2014.  Harding, Robin, Joseph Leahy and Lucy Hornby, “Emerging Economies: Taking a Stand”, Financial Times, July 16th 2014 For further exploration:  Schweller, Randall. “Global Insights: Emerging Powers in an Age of Disorder,” Global Governance 17 (2011), 285-297.

Monday, September 14 – China’s Rise to Global Power Required readings:  Nye, Joseph. The Future of Power, pp 177-186  Bradsher, Keith. “China Falters, and the Global Economy Is Forced to Adapt,” The New York Times, August 26, 2015  “What China Wants,” The Economist, August 23, 2014  Shambaugh, David. “The Coming Chinese Crackup,” Wall Street Journal, March 6, 2015  Subramanian, Arvind. “The Inevitable Superpower: Why China’s Dominance is a Sure Thing,” Foreign Affairs, September/October 2011  Li, Xin & Verner Worm. “Building China’s Soft Power for a Peaceful Rise,” Journal of Chinese Political Science, 2011 16: 69-89.  McFarlan, F. Warren, William C. Kirby & Regina Abrami. “Can China Lead? Reaching the Limits of Growth and Power,” (Harvard Business Review Press: 2014), Chapter 1: The Myths and Making of Modern China; Chapter 3: The Engineering State; Chapter 6: Global China For further exploration:  Kaplan, Robert. “The Geography of Chinese Power.” Foreign Affairs, May/June 2010  Kissinger, Henry. “On China,” pp 1-3, 5-32  Documents from the Third Plenary Session of 18th CPC Central Committee.  Mahbubani, Kishore. “The Chinese Century,” American Review, Issue Two, May- October 2010  Xi Jinping's speech at opening ceremony of Boao Forum, “Working Together Toward a Better Future for Asia and the World,” April 7, 2013.

Wednesday, September 16 – CLASS RESCHEDULED ON FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 18

Friday, September 18 – The Future of American Power in the 21st Century 9:00 – 10:30 am Nye ABC (5th floor Taubman building) Required readings:  Nye, Joseph. The Future of Power, pages 187-204  Edelman, Eric D., “The Declinist Persuasion”, from “Understanding America’s Contested Primacy”, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments”, pages 17-30. 2011  Brzezinski, Zbigniew. Strategic Vision: America and the Crisis of Global Power,” New York: 2012. pp 37-74  Joffe, Josef. “Not Dead Yet,” American Review, May-October, 2010  Colby, Elbridge and Paul Lettow, “Have we hit Peak America?”, Foreign Policy, July 3rd 2014 For further exploration:

3  Beckley, Michael. "China's Century: Will America's Edge Endure?", International Security, Winter 2011  Lieber, Robert J. "Staying Power and the American Future: Problems of Primacy, Policy and Grand Strategy," Journal of Strategic Studies, August 2011  “Notes on the Decline of a Great Nation,” Der Spiegel, November 5, 2012  Walt, Stephen M. “Power and decline: Why other countries ought to envy the United States,” Foreign Policy, October 1, 2012

Monday, September 21 – Emerging Power: India Required readings:  “Modi as Prime Minister,” The Economist, August 15, 2014  Thottam, Jyoti. “Two Indias,” The New York Times, September 6, 2013.  Kaplan, Robert D., Monsoon, Chapter 7: “The View from Delhi,” pp. 119-134  Burns, Nicholas. “Passage to India,” Foreign Affairs, Sept/Oct 2014  Malik, Mohan. “Asia’s Great Naval Rivalry,” Wall Street Journal, September 5, 2011  Ciorciari, John D. “India's Approach to Great-Power Status,” The Fletcher Forum of World Affairs, Vol. 35:1 Winter 2011 For further exploration:  Robinson, David A. “India’s Rise as a Great Power, Part One: Regional and Global Implications,” Future Directions International Associate Paper, July 7, 2011  Ganguly, Sumit. “Think Again: India’s Rise.” Foreign Policy, July 2012.

Wednesday, September 23 – Emerging Power: Brazil Required readings:  Lyons, John; Kiernan, Paul. “Brazil’s Big Bet on China Turns Sour,” Wall Street Journal, August 28, 2015  “The Bets that Failed,” The Economist, March 20th 2014  Statement by H. E. Dilma Rousseff, President of the Federative Republic Of Brazil, the Opening of the General Debate of the 68th Session of the United Nations General Assembly, September 24, 2013.  Amorim, Celso. “Hardening Brazil’s Soft Power,” Project Syndicate, July 16, 2013.  “Global Brazil and U.S.-Brazil Relations,” Council on Foreign Relations, Independent Task Force Report No. 66, 2011, pages 8-63  Sotero, Paulo. “Brazil’s Rising Ambition in a Shifting Global Balance of Power,” Politics: 2010 Vol 30(S1), 71–81. For further exploration:  Amorim, Celso. “Brazilian foreign policy under President Lula (2003-2010): an overview.” 2010, vol.53, pp. 214-240  Amorim, Celso. “Brazil and the Middle East: Reflections on Lula’s South-South Cooperation,” The Cairo Review of Global Affairs, Summer 2011, pp 48-63  Lewis, David. “Special Report: In Africa, Can Brazil be the Anti-China?” Reuters, Feb 23, 2011  Herz, Monica, Major Powers and the Quest for Status in International Politics, "Brazil: Major Power in the Making," Basingstoke, Hampshire: Palgrave Publishers (2011), pp. 159-179  Hurrell, Andrew, Rising States, Rising Institutions: Challenges for Global Governance, "Brazil: What Kind of Rising State in What Kind of Institutional Order?”, Washington: Brookings Institution Press (2010), pp. 128-150

Monday, September 28 – Declining Power?: European Union

4 Required readings:  “The Eurosceptic Union,” The Economist, May 29th 2014  World Economic Forum (Davos) 2014: speech by David Cameron  Transcript of speech by Secretary of Defense Robert Gates on NATO’s Future, Wall Street Journal, June 10, 2011  Rasmussen, Anders Fogh. “NATO After Libya,” Foreign Affairs, July/August 2011  Talbott, Strobe. “Monnet’s Brandy & Europe’s Fate,” Brookings Institution, February 2014. For further exploration:  “Tough talk, no strategy: Europe needs to do more than respond to every problem with fresh sanctions,” The Economist, March 3, 2012  “Staring into the abyss,” The Economist, November 12, 2011  Peel, Quentin. “Angela Merkel: a woman of power.” Financial Times, December 2012.  June 24, 2009 speech by David Miliband, “European Renewal amidst Global Adversity.”  "Europe Forecasts ‘Mild Recession’ for Euro Zone in 2012," The New York Times, February 23, 2012  "The end of Monnet," The Economist, September 3, 2011  “Goodbye Europe.” The Economist, December, 8 2012.

Wednesday, September 30 – Declining Power?: Russian Federation Required readings:  Trenin, Dmitri. “The Ukraine Crisis and the Resumption of Great Power Rivalry,” Carnegie Moscow Center, July 9, 2014  Putin, Vladimir. “Presidential Address to the Federal Assembly,” December 12, 2013  Kaplan, Robert. The Revenge of Geography, “Russia and the Independent Heartland” (Ch. 10)  John Mearsheimer, “Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West’s Fault,” Foreign Affairs, September/October 2014  Tsygankov, Andrei P. “Russia’s Power and Alliances in the 21st Century,” Politics: 2010, Vol 30, 43-51  Eberstadt, Nicholas. “The Dying Bear: Russia's Demographic Disaster,” Foreign Affairs, Nov/Dec 2011  Lieven, Anatol, “U.S.-Russian Relations and the Rise of China,” New America Foundation, July 11, 2011  Shleifer, Andrei and Daniel Treisman, “Why Moscow Says No,” Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb 2011 For further exploration  Francis, David. “How NATO Could Confront the Putin Doctrine,” Foreign Policy, August 26, 2014,  Treisman, Daniel. “Watching Putin in Moscow: What Russians Think of the Intervention in Ukraine,” Foreign Affairs, March 5, 2014

Friday, October 2 – Middle Powers: The Fragile Five and the MIST Countries 9:00 – 10:30 am Weiner Auditorium (ground floor Taubman) Required readings:  “The Mint countries: Next economic giants?,” BBC News Magazine, January 5, 2014.

5  Sergie, Mohammed Aly. “Currency Crises in Emerging Markets,” Council on Foreign Relations, January 24, 2014.  “‘Fragile five’ countries face taper crunch,” Financial Times, December 17, 2013.  Bradsher, Keith, Romero, Simon & Ceylan Yeginsu. “Breathing Room for Emerging Markets Watching Money Flee,” The New York Times, September 18, 2013.  Cooper, Andrew & Mo, Jongryn. “Middle Power Leadership and the Evolution of the G20,” Global Summitry Journal, May 2013.  Gilley, Bruce. “The rise of the middle powers,” The New York Times, September 12, 2012.

Monday, October 5 – The Future Global Governing Board of the World: Case Study – UN Security Council Reform FIRST PAPER DUE (bring hard copy to class and upload to course website) Required readings:  Rothwell, Sonia. “Security Council reform: why it matters and why it's not happening,” openSecurity: Reconciliation & Conflict, November 7, 2013.  Von Freiesleben, Jonas and Lyndia Stewart. “Reform of the Security Council from 1945 to September 2013,” Governing & Managing Change at the United Nations, Vol 1, September 2013.  Stedman, Stephen J. “UN Transformation in an Era of Soft Balancing,” International Affairs, 83: 5 (2007): 933–944.  Albright, Madeleine. “Who Broke the U.N.?” Foreign Policy, Sept/Oct 2012.  Lee, Seryon. “The feasibility of reforming the UN Security council: too much talk, too little action?,” Journal of East Asia & International Law, Autumn 2011, Vol. 4 Issue 2.

Wednesday, October 7 – CLASS RESCHEDULED ON FRIDAY, OCTOBER 2

Monday, October 12 – NO CLASS (Columbus Day)

Wednesday, October 14 – Future Challenge: The Great Game in the Indian Ocean Required readings:  Kaplan, Robert D. Monsoon, Introduction, Chapter 1, "China Expands Vertically, India Horizontally,” Afterword, “The Post-Imperial Order and the Indian Ocean”  Kaplan, Robert (2009). “Center Stage for the Twenty-first Century.” Foreign Affairs, 88(2), 16-32  Green, M. J., & Shearer, A. (2012). “Defining US Indian Ocean Strategy.” The Washington Quarterly, 35(2), 175-189  Pehrson, Christopher J., "String of Pearls: Meeting the Challenge of China’s Rising Power Across the Asian Littoral," Carlisle Papers in Security Strategy, July 2006  Vines, Alex. "Mesmerised by Chinese string of pearls theory,” The World Today, Chatham House, Feb/March 2012  Townsend, Ashley S., “Unraveling China’s ‘String of Pearls’,” Yale Global Online, September 16, 2011

Monday, October 19 – Future Challenge: The South & East China Sea Crises Required readings:  Himmelman, Jeff. “A Game of Shark and Minnow,” The New York Times, October 14, 2013  “China’s Maritime Disputes,” CFR InfoGuide Presentation

6  Bradsher, Keith. “Philippine Leader Sounds Alarm on China,” The New York Times, February 4, 2014.  Schwartz, General Norton A. & Admiral Jonathan W. Greenert. “Air-Sea Battle: Promoting Stability in an Era of Uncertainty,” The American Interest, February 20, 2012.  Greenert, Admiral Jonathan. “Sea Change: The Navy Pivots to Asia,” Foreign Policy, November 14, 2012.  O’Hanlon, Michael & James Steinberg. “Going Beyond ‘Air-Sea Battle,’” The Washington Post, August 23, 2012 .  Cronin, Patrick M., Peter A. Dutton, M. Taylor Fravel, James R. Holmes, Robert D. Kaplan, Will Rogers and Ian Storey. “Cooperation from Strength: The United States, China and the South China Sea”, Center for a New American Security, Washington D.C., January 2012; Executive Summary; Chapter 1.  Kaplan, Robert D. “The South China Sea is the Future of Conflict”, Foreign Policy, Sept/Oct 2011.  Fravel, M. Taylor, "China's Strategy in the South China Sea", Contemporary Southeast Asia, 33(3), 2011, pp. 292-319.  Buszynski, Leszek. “The South China Sea: Oil, Maritime Claims, and U.S.—China Strategic Rivalry,” The Washington Quarterly, Spring 2012.  “Fact Sheet: Position of Japan on the Senkaku Islands,” Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, November 2012.

Wednesday, October 21 – Future Challenge: U.S.-China Military Competition Required readings:  Dyer, Geoff, “US v China: is this the new cold war?” The Financial Times, February 20th 2014  Page, Jeremy, “In Pacific Drills, Navies Adjust to New Arrival: China,” The Wall Street Journal, July 17, 2014  Steinberg, James B. and Michael O'Hanlon, “Keep Hope Alive,” Foreign Affairs, July/August, 2014  General Yao Yunzhu, “Boost for Sino-US military ties,” China Daily, June 17, 2013  Nye, Joseph S. “A smarter way to deal with China,” The Los Angeles Times, June 12, 2013  Allison, Graham. “Avoiding Thucydides’s Trap,” Financial Times, August 22, 2012  Xuetong, Yan, “How China Can Defeat America,” New York Times, November 21, 2011  Jisi, Wang and Kenneth Lieberthal. “Addressing US-China Strategic Distrust.” The Brookings Institute. March 30, 2012.  Nye, Joe. “China’s Rise Doesn’t Mean War.” Foreign Policy, January/February 2011.  Ross, Robert S. “The Problem with the Pivot: Obama’s New Asia Policy is Unnecessary and Counterproductive,” Foreign Affairs, Nov/Dec 2012  Speech of President Barack Obama, Canberra, November 2011 For further exploration:  Mirski, Sean. “Stranglehold: The Context, Conduct and Consequences of an American Naval Blockade of China,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Feb 13, 2013.

Monday, October 26 – Cyber Challenges and Global Stability Required Readings:  CFR Backgrounder on Cyber Security  Nye, Joseph, “Nuclear Lessons for Cyber Security”, Strategic Studies Quarterly, Winter 2011  Mandiant Report, Executive Summary (pg. 2-6) 7  Rid, Thomas, “Cyber War and Peace”, Foreign Affairs, November/December 2013  CSIS Significant Cyber Events since 2006  Clark, David D. and Susan Landau. “Untangling Attribution.” National Security Journal. 2.2. (2011)  Mahnken, Thomas, “Why Cyberwar Isn’t the Warfare You Should Worry About.” Foreign Policy, July 2012 For further exploration:  Foreign Affairs article – what to read on cybersecurity

Wednesday, October 28 – Defeating the Islamic State and Boko Haram Required readings: TBD

Monday, November 2 – Global Economic Stability Required readings: TBD

Wednesday, November 4 – A Case for Intervention: Syria Required Readings: TBD

Monday, November 9 – Climate Change SECOND PAPER DUE (bring hard copy to class and upload to course website) Required readings: • US-China Joint Announcement on Climate Change, November 11, 2014 • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Synthesis Report for Policy Makers, November 1, 2014; P 3-12, 15-17 • US Global Change Research Program, “National Climate Assessment,” 2014 • The Economist, “Theatre of the Absurd,” December 1, 2012 • Antholis, William, “The Modi-Obama Summit: What this means for Climate Change,” The Brookings Institution, October 14, 2014 • Carr, Mathew, “Climate Talks Grapple with Regional Climate Markets,” Bloomberg News, Nov. 7, 2014:

Wednesday, November 11 – NO CLASS (Veterans Day)

Monday, November 16 – Energy and the Changing Balance of Power Required readings: TBD

Wednesday, November 18 – The Future Global Governing Board of the World: Competition for the Arctic: A Case Study Required readings:  Klare, Michael T. “Rushing for the Arctic’s Riches,” The New York Times, December 8, 2013.  Riechmann, Deb. “US is playing catch-up in the Arctic,” Boston Globe, January 12, 2014.  Rose, Gideon & Jonathan Tepperman. “The shape of things to come,” Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb 2014.  Emmerson, Charles. “The Cold Rush: Attraction of the North Pole,” The World Today, Aug/Sept 2013.  Masters, Jonathan. “The Thawing Arctic: Risks and Opportunities,” Council on Foreign Relations, December 16, 2013.

8  Interview with Icelandic President Olafur Ragnar Grimsson, Council on Foreign Relations, April 16, 2013.  Myers, Steven Lee. “Arctic council adds 6 nations as observer states, including China,” The New York Times, May 15, 2013.  Rosenthal, Elisabeth. “Race is on as ice melt reveals arctic treasures,” The New York Times, September 18, 2012.  Trenin, Dmitri & Pavel K. Baev. “The Arctic: a view from Moscow,” The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2010.  Andrew Hart, Bruce Jones and David Steven. “Chill Out: why cooperation is balancing conflict among major powers in the new Arctic,” Managing Global Order, Brookings Institution, May 2012.  “The roar of ice cracking: Will Asian countries consolidate or disrupt Arctic stability?” The Economist, February 2, 2013. For further exploration:  Johnston, Peter F. “Arctic Energy Resouces and Global Energy Security,” Journal of Military and Strategic Studies, Vol 12, Issue 2, Winter 2010.  “National Strategy for the Arctic Region,” The White House, May 10, 2013.

Monday, November 23 – Implementing the Iran Nuclear Agreement Required Readings: TBD

Wednesday, November 25 – NO CLASS (Thanksgiving break)

Monday, November 30 – Global Governing Board: Progress in the Public Health Wars

Wednesday, December 2 – Review of Class and Final Lessons

December 2 – 15 FINAL ORAL EXAMS* *30-minute oral exams will be given by Professor Burns to all credit students. A study guide will be distributed one week prior to the first day of oral exams. An electronic sign up sheet will be posted once the oral exam schedule is set.