Electric Power Outlook for Pennsylvania 2018-2023 I Ii Electric Power Outlook for Pennsylvania 2017-2022
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ELECTRIC POWER OUTLOOK FOR PENNSYLVANIA 2018–2023 August 2019 Published by: Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission 400 North Street Harrisburg, PA 17105-3265 www.puc.pa.gov Technical Utility Services Paul T. Diskin, Director Prepared by: David M. Washko - Reliability Engineer Electric Power Outlook for Pennsylvania 2018-2023 i ii Electric Power Outlook for Pennsylvania 2017-2022 Executive Summary Introduction Section 524(a) of the Public Utility Code (Code) requires jurisdictional electric distribution companies (EDCs) to submit to the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission (PUC or Commission) information concerning plans and projections for meeting future customer demand.1 The PUC’s regulations set forth the form and content of such information, which is to be filed on or before May 1 of each year.2 Section 524(b) of the Code requires the Commission to prepare an annual report summarizing and discussing the data provided, on or before Sept. 1. This report is to be submitted to the General Assembly, the Governor, the Office of Consumer Advocate and each affected public utility.3 Since the enactment of the Electricity Generation Customer Choice and Competition Act,4 the Commission’s regulations have been modified to reflect the competitive market. Thus, projections of generating capability and overall system reliability have been obtained from regional assessments. Any comments or conclusions contained in this report do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of the Commission or individual Commissioners. Although issued by the Commission, this report is not to be considered or construed as approval or acceptance by the Commission of any of the plans, assumptions, or calculations made by the EDCs or regional reliability entities and reflected in the information submitted. Overview This report concludes that sufficient generation, transmission and distribution capacity exists to reasonably meet the needs of Pennsylvania’s electricity consumers for the foreseeable future. Regional generation adequacy and reserve margins of the mid-Atlantic will be satisfied through 2028, provided planned generation and transmission projects will be forthcoming in a timely manner. The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) provided a reliability assessment of the Regional Transmission Organization (RTO), which is PJM Interconnection, LLC (PJM), and concluded that PJM will meet its reserve margin requirements. In 2019, the PJM reserve margin requirement is 16.0 percent with an actual available reserve of 28.2 percent as compared to a reserve margin requirement of 16.1 percent and available reserve of 27.7 percent in 2018.5 NERC also projects PJM will have enough generation capacity to meet its reserve margin requirements through 2028.6 Pennsylvania’s aggregate electrical energy usage (residential, commercial, industrial, sales for resale, and other) in 2018 was 148,333 gigawatt hours (GWh) as compared to 142,740 GWh in 2017; 145,022 GWh in 2016; and 146,229 GWh in 2015. Year-over-year electric usage increased 3.92 percent. Over the next 5 years, total Pennsylvania electric energy usage is projected to decrease at an average annual rate of 0.18 percent. This includes a 0.28 percent decrease in average annual residential usage, a 0.43 percent decrease in average annual commercial usage, and a 0.14 percent increase in average annual industrial usage. 1 See 66 Pa. C.S. § 524(a). 2 See 52 Pa. Code §§ 57.141—57.154. 3 See 66 Pa.C.S. § 524(b). 4 66 Pa.C.S. §§ 2801—2812. 5 http://www.puc.state.pa.us/Electric/pdf/Reliability/Summer_Reliability_2019-PJM.pdf. 6 https://www.nerc.com/pa/RAPA/ra/Reliability%20Assessments%20DL/NERC_LTRA_2018_12202018.pdf. Electric Power Outlook for Pennsylvania 2018-2023 iii Section 1 – Regional Electric Outlook Purpose .................................................................................................................................. 1 Regional Reliability Organizations ...................................................................................... 2 North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) ...................................... 2 NERC Reliability Assessment ................................................................................... 3 ReliabilityFirst Corporation (RFC) .......................................................................... 6 Regional Transmission Organizations (RTO) ...................................................................... 6 PJM Interconnection ................................................................................................. 7 PJM Bulk Power System Status – Winter Performance ........................................... 8 PJM Pennsylvania State Infrastructure ............................................................................... 9 Section 2 – Pennsylvania Electric Outlook Electric Distribution Companies (EDC) .............................................................................. 11 Alternative Energy Portfolio Standards ............................................................................... 13 Energy Efficiency and Conservation Program (Act 129) .................................................... 15 Statewide Review of Electrical Energy Usage ..................................................................... 18 Summary of Data for the Seven Largest EDCs .................................................................... 22 Duquesne Light Company ......................................................................................... 22 Metropolitan Edison Company ................................................................................. 24 Pennsylvania Electric Company ............................................................................... 26 Pennsylvania Power Company ................................................................................. 28 West Penn Power Company ...................................................................................... 30 PECO Energy Company ............................................................................................ 32 PPL Electric Utilities Corporation ........................................................................... 34 Summary of Data for the Four Smallest EDCs .................................................................... 36 Citizens’ Electric Company ....................................................................................... 36 Pike County Light & Power Company ..................................................................... 37 UGI Utilities Inc.—Electric Division ........................................................................ 38 Wellsboro Electric Company .................................................................................... 39 Appendix A – Data Tables Actual and Forecast Data Tables ......................................................................................... 40 Appendix B – Plant Additions and Upgrades Status of Pennsylvania’s Plant Additions and Upgrades .................................................... 47 Appendix C – Existing Generating Facilities Pennsylvania Generation Capability/Facilities ................................................................... 49 iv Electric Power Outlook for Pennsylvania 2017-2022 Section 1 – Regional Electric Outlook Purpose The Electric Power Outlook for Pennsylvania 2018-2023 discusses the current and future electric power supply and demand situation for the 11 investor-owned jurisdictional electric distribution companies (EDCs) operating in the state and the entities responsible for maintaining the reliability of the bulk electric supply system within the region that encompasses the state. Pursuant to Title 66, Pennsylvania Consolidated Statutes, Section 524(b), the PUC annually submits this report to the General Assembly, the Governor, the Office of Consumer Advocate and affected public utilities. It also is posted on the Commission’s website.7 The information contained in this report includes highlights of the past year, as well as EDCs' projections of energy demand and peak load for 2019-2023. The state’s seven largest EDCs8 represent 99 percent of both jurisdictional electricity customers and electrical energy consumption in Pennsylvania. Accordingly, information regarding the other four smallest EDCs contained in this report is limited. The report also provides a regional perspective with statistical information on the projected resources and aggregate peak loads for the region that impacts Pennsylvania. As permitted under Section 2809(e) of the Public Utility Code, the Commission has adopted revised regulations, reducing from 20 years to five years the reporting requirements and the reporting horizon for energy demand, connected peak load, and number of customers. Because Pennsylvania has a competitive retail electric market, certain information is no longer required to be reported. This includes information regarding generation facilities such as capital investments, energy costs, new facilities, and expansion of existing facilities. Data for the report is submitted annually by EDCs, pursuant to the Commission's regulations.9 Additionally, the Commission relies on reports and analyses of regional entities, including the ReliabilityFirst Corporation (RFC) and PJM, to obtain a more complete assessment of the current and future status of the electric power supply within the region. Sources also include data submitted by regional reliability councils to the North American Electric Reliability