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The G20 at the End of 2014 Edited by Tristram Sainsbury

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The G20 at the End of 2014 Edited by Tristram Sainsbury The G20 at the end of 2014 Edited by Tristram Sainsbury Number 15 | January 2015 THE G20 AT THE END OF 2014 The Lowy Institute for International Policy is an independent policy think tank. Its mandate ranges across all the dimensions of international policy debate in Australia – economic, political and strategic – and it is not limited to a particular geographic region. Its two core tasks are to: • produce distinctive research and fresh policy options for Australia’s international policy and to contribute to the wider international debate. • promote discussion of Australia’s role in the world by providing an accessible and high-quality forum for discussion of Australian international relations through debates, seminars, lectures, dialogues and conferences. Funding to establish the G20 Studies Centre at the Lowy Institute for International Policy has been provided by the Australian Government. The views expressed in the contributions to this Monitor are entirely the authors’ own and not those of the Lowy Institute for International Policy or of the G20 Studies Centre. THE G20 AT THE END OF 2014 TABLE OF CONTENTS Overview 3 Tristram Sainsbury Policies for the Turkish 2015 G20 Presidency: Walking a tightrope of G20 relevancy 5 Tristram Sainsbury A reflection on the G20: From strategic to pragmatic 27 Ye Yu The G20 at the end of 2014: Where is it at? 30 Jun Yokota Group with a cause: There is no alternative to the G20, but it does need reform 32 Katharina Gnath and Claudia Schmucker Back on track 36 Fan He Where is the G20 at end-2014? 39 Stephen Grenville The G20 at the end of 2014: Where is it at? 41 Carlos Heredia G20 at the crossroads: The government the world needs 44 Sergey Drobyshevsky How Australians will remember the Brisbane G20 Summit 46 Melissa Conley Tyler and Duc Dao Stronger outreach but G20 narrative still not resonating with citizenry 51 Dr Susan Harris Rimmer 1 THE G20 AT THE END OF 2014 Priorities for the G20 in 2015 56 Stephen Pickford Essential prerequisites that could facilitate the successful promotion of the three I’s of the Turkish Presidency 60 Fariborz Moshirian Cognitive dissonance and the G20: The 2 degree target, stranded assets, and exploration subsidies 65 Barry Carin Reforming the Global Economic Governance system: ‘Public goods’ and balance of power 68 Antonio Villafranca Growth through infrastructure development 71 Yong Wang and Gregory Chin Sydney Think20 seminar October 2014 74 Tristram Sainsbury 2 THE G20 AT THE END OF 2014 OVERVIEW TRISTRAM SAINSBURY1 This issue of the G20 Monitor reflects on the state of the G20 at the end of 2014, and offers suggestions for the path forward during Turkey’s 2015 G20 Presidency. My paper identifies ambitious policy pursuits that will define a successful 2015 Presidency. There are also papers outlining the perspectives on the state of the G20 from participants in the Think20, the outreach grouping of professional G20 observers drawn from academia and think tanks that contributes to the G20 through analysis, ideas, and commentary. Ye Yu suggests that the G20 has evolved positively in the last six years, and is the premier forum for international economic cooperation. Jun Yokota concludes that the G20 remains the only forum of its kind, providing an opportunity for leaders of this grouping of developed and developing countries to meet annually and progress international economic issues. Katharina Gnath and Claudia Schmucker also support this sentiment, but explain that summits have lost their lustre in recent years and the G20 needs to be strengthened. Fan He notes that Australia has managed to get the G20 back on track, but that the forum needs to look beyond the fluctuation of annual growth rates and address global governance issues. Stephen Grenville explores the prospect of the G20 developing its role over time as a ginger group and steering committee for international organisations. Carlos Heredia suggests that emerging economic and geopolitical challenges continue to raise fresh questions about the identity and role of the G20, while Sergey Drobyshevsky cautions against the risk of the G20 drifting from the ‘economic government’ to just one more international institution dealing with international affairs or global security issues. Turning to G20 outreach to the broader community, Melissa Conley Tyler and Duc Dao explore public perceptions of the Brisbane Summit and recall the primary issues that will dominate the domestic Australian audience’s memory of the G20. Susan Harris Rimmer explains that the G20 narrative is, on the whole, still not resonating with its citizenry, despite Australian efforts to strengthen the outreach process in 2014, and explores some issues that the Turkish and Chinese presidencies will face. 1 Research Fellow, G20 Studies Centre, Lowy Institute for International Policy. 3 THE G20 AT THE END OF 2014 Focusing on Turkish G20 priorities, Stephen Pickford warns of the need for the G20 to prioritise a few key issues in 2015, and identifies advances that can be made by a focused agenda. Fariborz Moshirian identifies the essential prerequisites that could facilitate the successful promotion of the Turkish Presidency’s three I’s (inclusiveness, implementation, and investment). Barry Carin examines the case for G20 attention on fossil fuel exploration subsidies, and Antonio Villafranca explores issues around global economic governance and the redistribution of power in international institutions. With China confirmed as G20 host for 2016, Yong Wang and Gregory Chin explain how the infrastructure agenda will support the G20’s growth goals and link with China’s heavy interest in the topic. Also included is the summary of a Think20 seminar hosted by the Lowy Institute for International Policy’s G20 Studies Centre in Sydney in October 2014, which canvassed key issues around the state of the global economy, developments in global economic governance, and the future of the G20. A specific objective of the seminar’s discussions was to identify the successes and lessons of the 2014 Think20 process. 4 THE G20 AT THE END OF 2014 POLICIES FOR THE TURKISH 2015 G20 PRESIDENCY: WALKING A TIGHTROPE OF G20 RELEVANCY TRISTRAM SAINSBURY1 The G20 is in a delicate position at the end of 2014. The global economy continues to face significant short- and long-term challenges associated with the sluggish recovery from the global financial crisis. The collective solutions required to address the broad range of international economic challenges often require multi-year negotiations, and today’s integrated global economy needs an effective forum for international economic cooperation. The latest G20 Leaders’ Summit, held in Brisbane in November, provided a welcome reminder of the power of the G20 to overcome political roadblocks and for leaders to provide the necessary high-level strategic leadership that advances global economic issues. The successful 2014 Australian G20 Presidency has brought back a sense of optimism that the G20 is able to focus on collective solutions to the major economic challenges of the day. Yet the G20’s legitimacy as the world’s premier economic forum has been increasingly questioned amid claims that it has not always provided the economic leadership that is required, and that people have become disillusioned with the slow progress being made on key international governance issues. A side effect has been the development of alternate regional architecture and the formation of geopolitical blocs and factions. Many feel that, at the start of 2015, the G20 is a group still in search of more substance and permanence. The 2015 Presidency provides an opportunity to show that the G20 is continuing to play a very positive ongoing role; that governments have the capacity and willingness to cooperate; and that non-G8 countries are continuing to listen and learn about how to steer global affairs. It is important that Turkey’s G20 Presidency is a success, and not just for reasons of Turkish national pride. We live in a world of workarounds, and alternative forums will continue to be sought if the G20 is not demonstrating its relevance. As a result, the G20 will walk a tightrope of relevancy in 2015. The key challenge that the Turkish G20 Presidency faces is how to manage efforts to ‘have it all’. That is, how it can balance advancing the 1 Research Fellow, G20 Studies Centre, Lowy Institute for International Policy. 5 THE G20 AT THE END OF 2014 G20’s primary objective to lift growth and quality jobs, achieve progress on a remarkably broad scope of nominated priorities that appeal to its domestic constituency, and make concrete progress on the longer-term challenges of global economic governance upon which the G20’s reputation ultimately rests. At the same time, it needs to maintain the functional process that was a feature of 2014 discussions, pursue a clear G20 communications strategy for the broader public, and strengthen outreach with engagement groups and non-members, which are vital for the longer-term legitimacy and effectiveness of the G20.2 The experience of previous presidencies suggests that pursing such a broad range of priority topics will be highly challenging, and it will be important that Turkey’s public narrative clearly communicates which of the priorities it considers indispensable, and how these are in the best interests of the G20. If the Antalya Summit in November 2015 can make tangible advances in tackling longer-term global governance and also consolidate the substantial gains made during Australia’s Presidency, it will also go some way towards restoring the reputation of the forum. This article will identify some of the areas that will make this possible, starting by examining the economic context for the Presidency. THE G20 IN 2015 FACES SIMILAR ECONOMIC CHALLENGES TO 2014 The economic outlook that leaders faced in November 2014 was for low, uneven, and disappointing global growth.
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