Drivers-Of-Change Analysis

Xxxxx State Drivers-of-Change Analysis Day, Month, 20XX

Table of Contents

Executive Summary (Key Findings)...... 5 1 Introduction...... 5 1.1 Purpose of a S-DoC Analysis...... 5 1.2 Structure of the S-DoC Analysis/Report...... 5 1.3 Methodology of Key S-DoC Components...... 5 2 Political Economy Analysis of Governance of the State...... 5 2.1 Summary of Political & Economic History of Xxxxx State...... 5 2.2 Summary of Key Structures, Institutions & Agents: Power Relations Presently Shaping Governance of Xxxxx State...... 5 2.3 Summary of Implications for Change: Xxxxx State Governance Reforms & Service Delivery Improvements...... 6 2.4 State & Local Government Governance V&A Index: 2012 Baseline...... 6 2.5 Implications for SAVI – Major Opportunities, Challenges and Risks...... 6 3 State House of Assembly Analysis...... 6 3.1 Broad Political Economy Analysis of Xxxxx SHoA – a political scientist's view...... 6 3.2 Mapping & Detailed Political Economy Analysis of Xxxxx SHoA – SAVI's view...... 6 3.3 Xxxxx SHoA Organisational Capacity (Self) Assessment – the House's view...... 6 3.4 Xxxxx SHoA Governance V&A Index: 2012 Baseline – the view of others/peers...... 6 3.5 Strength of House Relations with State Citizens, Civil Society & Media – in summary.....6 3.6 Implications for SAVI – Major Opportunities, Challenges and Risks...... 6 4 Civil Society Analysis...... 6 4.1 Broad Political Economy Analysis of Xxxxx CS – a political scientist's view...... 6 4.2 Mapping & Detailed Political Economy Analysis of Xxxxx CS – SAVI's view...... 7 4.3 Xxxxx CS Organisational Capacity (Self) Assessment – the CS's view...... 7 4.4 Xxxxx CS Governance V&A Index: 2012 Baseline – the view of others/peers...... 7 4.5 Strength of CS Relations with State Citizens, Media and SHoA – in summary...... 7 4.6 Implications for SAVI – Major Opportunities, Challenges and Risks...... 7 5 Media Analysis...... 7 5.1 Broad Political Economy Analysis of Xxxxx Media – a political scientist's view...... 7 5.2 Mapping & Detailed Political Economy Analysis of Xxxxx Media – SAVI's view...... 7 5.2 Xxxxx Media Organisational Capacity (Self) Assessment – the Media's view...... 7 1 5.3 Xxxxx Media Governance V&A Index: 2012 Baseline – the view of others/peers...... 7 5.4 Strength of Media Relations with State Citizens, CS and SHoA – in summary...... 7 5.5 Implications for SAVI – Major Opportunities, Challenges and Risks...... 7 6 Analysis of Other Development Partners...... 7 6.1 Mapping & Political Economy Analysis of other National/International Development Partners – SAVI's view...... 7 6.2 Strength of IDP Relations with State Citizens, CS, Media, SHoA and between IDPs in Xxxxx State – in summary...... 8 6.3 Potential for Alignment/Co-ordination with and/or Replication of Approaches Demonstrated by SAVI and its Partners...... 8 6.4 Implications for SAVI – Major Opportunities, Challenges and Risks...... 8 7 Gender & Social Inclusion Analysis: 2012 Baseline...... 8 7.1 G&SI Analysis of Xxxxx State – Excluded Groups, Exclusion Issues, and Extent to which the Voice and Women and Other Excluded Groups is Reflected in Matters of Governance – SAVI's view...... 8 7.2 G&SI Assessment of SAVI Xxxxx State Team, Proposed Programme and Potential Partners...... 8 7.3 Implications for SAVI – Major Opportunities, Challenges and Risks...... 8 8 Analysis of Issues, Processes & Agents of Change Serving as Potential Entry Points to Governance Reform...... 8 8.1 Long-list of Key Policy Issues and Govt Budget & Planning Processes of Public Concern (to Government, Citizens, SHoA, Civil Society, Media and other Development Partners) in Xxxxx State...... 8 8.2 Long-list of Key Agents of Change (within Government, Citizens, SHoA, Civil Society, Media and other Development Partners) in Xxxxx State...... 8 8.3 Short-list of Key Issues & Processes with High Potential for Governance Reform in Xxxxx State...... 8 8.4 Short-list of Key Agents of Change in Xxxxx State Closely Concerned with and/or Critical to the Short-Listed Key Issues & Processes...... 9 8.5 Initial Risk Assessment of Short-Listed Issues, Processes & Agents of Change...... 9 9 Implications for SAVI Xxxxx State Programme...... 9 9.1 Potential Entry Points and Partners for Issue-Based Policy Advocacy & Monitoring (Output 1)...... 9 9.2 Potential Entry Points and Partners for Facilitating Public Involvement in Government Budget & Planning Processes (Output 2)...... 9 9.3 Potential Entry Points and Partners for G&SI Mainstreaming (Output 3)...... 9 9.4 Potential Entry Points and Partners for Media Strengthening (Output 3)...... 9 9.5 Potential Entry Points and Partners for SHoA Systems Strengthening (Output 4)...... 9 9.6 Potential Entry Points and Partners Influencing other National/International Development Partners for Alignment, Co-ordination and/or Replication of Approaches Demonstrated by SAVI and its State Partners (Output 5)...... 10 9.7 Potential Partners for State Programme Oversight...... 10 Annexes...... 10 Annex 1: 2011/12 State Political Economy Analysis Update...... 10 2 Annex 2: Bibliography of Key Reference Documents...... 10 Annex 3: Database of Mapped SHoA, CS, Media and IDPs...... 10 Annex 4: State Governance V&A Index: Baseline Report...... 10 Annex 5: Results of SHoA-OCAs...... 10 Annex 6: Results of CS-OCAs...... 10 Annex 7: Results of Media-OCAs...... 10 Annex 8: G&SI Assessments: Baseline Report...... 10 Annex 9: Xxxxx State Logframe...... 10 Annex 10: Xxxxx State Workplan & Budget for 2012-14...... 10

3 Note: as well as being a key reference document for SAVI (state team + plus core team) this is also a report for external communications (with other SAVI state teams, other DFID programmes in your state, DFID itself and possibly other interested national/international donors).

The length of this report should therefore be kept to a bare minimum, summarising the findings under each sub-section. Some sub-sections may only require a single paragraph, while others may require a bit more, but no section should exceed 2-3 pages. Detail should be reserved for the annexes – for those readers who want to know more than just the big picture.

The language of this report should therefore be diplomatic, in case any of the actors/agents described in it get to read it. This doesn’t mean that our analysis should be omitted or watered down where it might offend – but that we find ways of making it more palatable.

Executive Summary (Key Findings)

Maximum of 2 pages.

1 Introduction

1.1 Purpose of a S-DoC Analysis

1.2 Structure of the S-DoC Analysis/Report

1.3 Methodology of Key S-DoC Components

2 Political Economy Analysis of Governance of the State

2.1 Summary of Political & Economic History of Xxxxx State this can be taken from the executive summary of the state PE report by SAVI & SPARC

2.2 Summary of Key Structures, Institutions & Agents: Power Relations Presently Shaping Governance of Xxxxx State this can be taken from the executive summary of the state PE report by SAVI & SPARC make sure this also reflects power relations within and between both the private and public sector … and also any power differentials across LGs and influence of zonal, regional, national/federal power relations

4 2.3 Summary of Implications for Change: Xxxxx State Governance Reforms & Service Delivery Improvements this can be taken from the executive summary of the state PE report by SAVI & SPARC

2.4 State & Local Government Governance V&A Index: 2012 Baseline

2.5 Implications for SAVI – Major Opportunities, Challenges and Risks this should be very broad, e.g. which sectors have traction, which don’t. how powerful is the hold of the government over each demand-side agency/agents, SHoA, Media, CS and IDPs, in general.

3 State House of Assembly Analysis

3.1 Broad Political Economy Analysis of Xxxxx SHoA – a Political Scientist’s View

3.2 Mapping & Detailed Political Economy Analysis of Xxxxx SHoA – SAVI's View

3.3 Xxxxx SHoA Organisational Capacity (Self) Assessment – the House's View

3.4 Xxxxx SHoA Governance V&A Index: 2012 Baseline – the View of Others/Peers

3.5 Strength of House Relations with State Citizens, Civil Society and Media – in Summary

3.6 Implications for SAVI – Major Opportunities, Challenges and Risks

4 Civil Society Analysis make sure this includes private sector groups, associations, unions, professional bodies and traditional and religious structures as well as the usual suspects: NGOs, CSOs, CBOs.

4.1 Broad Political Economy Analysis of Xxxxx CS – a Political Scientist’s View

4.2 Mapping & Detailed Political Economy Analysis of Xxxxx CS – SAVI's View

5 4.3 Xxxxx CS Organisational Capacity (Self) Assessment – the CS's View

4.4 Xxxxx CS Governance V&A Index: 2012 Baseline – the View of Others/Peers

4.5 Strength of CS Relations with State Citizens, Media and SHoA – in Summary

5 Media Analysis make sure this includes private and state media, and new social media as well as old/traditional.

5.1 Broad Political Economy Analysis of Xxxxx Media – a Political Scientist’s View

5.2 Mapping & Detailed Political Economy Analysis of Xxxxx Media – SAVI's View

5.2 Xxxxx Media Organisational Capacity (Self) Assessment – the Media's View

5.3 Xxxxx Media Governance V&A Index: 2012 Baseline – the View of Others/Peers

5.4 Strength of Media Relations with State Citizens, CS and SHoA – in Summary

6 Analysis of Other Development Partners

6.1 Mapping & Political Economy Analysis of other National/International Development Partners – SAVI's View i.e. other SLPs, DFID-funded programmes, DFID itself, other Donors and their programmes

6.2 Strength of IDP Relations with State Citizens, CS, Media, SHoA and between IDPs in Xxxxx State – in Summary

6 6.3 Potential for Alignment/Co-ordination with and/or Replication of Approaches Demonstrated by SAVI and its Partners

7 Gender & Social Inclusion Analysis: 2012 Baseline

7.1 G&SI Analysis of Xxxxx State – Excluded Groups, Exclusion Issues, and Extent to which the Voice and Women and Other Excluded Groups is Reflected in Matters of Governance – SAVI's View

7.2 G&SI Assessment of SAVI Xxxxx State Team, Proposed Programme and Potential Partners – SAVI's View

8 Analysis of Issues, Processes & Agents of Change Serving as Potential Entry Points to Governance Reform

8.1 Long-list of Key Policy Issues and Govt Budget & Planning Processes of Public Concern (to Government, Citizens, SHoA, Civil Society, Media and other Development Partners) in Xxxxx State from your initial mapping and roundtables – all the main possibilities, opportunities you considered

8.2 Long-list of Key Agents of Change (within Government, Citizens, SHoA, Civil Society, Media and other Development Partners) in Xxxxx State in relation to the long-list/broad set of issues and processes – all those you considered important

8.3 Short-list of Key Issues & Processes with High Potential for Governance Reform in Xxxxx State

… based on a number of critical factors for SAVI: a. Political Traction (based on State Development Plans/Objectives and the Political Economy Analysis of the State) b. Demand-Side Capacity (Social Commitment and Technical Capability) on Ground (based on the SHoA, CS and Media OCAs – is the cup half full or empty? There needs to be enough capacity on ground already for SAVI to work with, otherwise it will be a long, hard struggle that we don’t have the time or the resources on SAVI to support)

7 c. Potential for Wider Replication (based on Sectoral, Regional and National/Federal relevance) d. Value-for-Money Potential (based on Expected Results – a big return from a small investment)

8.4 Short-list of Key Agents of Change in Xxxxx State Closely Concerned with and/or Critical to the Short-Listed Key Issues & Processes

8.5 Initial Risk Assessment of Short-Listed Issues, Processes & Agents of Change these would normally emerge from doing a Detailed Political Economy Analysis of the Short-Listed Issues & Processes and a related Stakeholder Analysis of the Key Agents of Change … if you have already done this as part of the PE analysis then summarise here … if not then this is something you need to do as part of the inception or early implementation activity (core team can support if you need) … NB. the proposed PPD and roundtables are a way of testing these risks – so it would be good to do this detailed analysis both before and after. make sure this also reflects security issues/challenges – the more serious of which should already have be reflected in the PE analysis of the state. make sure this is also accompanied by a summary in the form of a chart – risk matrix: a format will be provided

9 Implications for SAVI Xxxxx State Programme

9.1 Potential Entry Points and Partners for Issue-Based Policy Advocacy & Monitoring (Output 1)

9.2 Potential Entry Points and Partners for Facilitating Public Involvement in Government Budget & Planning Processes (Output 2)

9.3 Potential Entry Points and Partners for G&SI Mainstreaming (Output 3)

9.4 Potential Entry Points and Partners for Media Strengthening (Output 3)

9.5 Potential Entry Points and Partners for SHoA Systems Strengthening (Output 4)

9.6 Potential Entry Points and Partners Influencing other National/International Development Partners for Alignment, Co-ordination and/or Replication of Approaches Demonstrated by SAVI and its State Partners (Output 5)

9.7 Potential Partners for State Programme Oversight

8 Every SAVI state team has a ‘friends of SAVI’ group to serve a number of functions: mainly as a governance index monitoring group, but also as sounding board for the state team to share ideas with, as individuals you can call on for advice or to help you solve problems with partners, as a body, or individuals, to relate with the government or keep the government informed of what SAVI is doing and why it is doing it – to keep government on our side.

From the FGDs of the GB in your state, or any other source, who would you chose to play this role for you, who are not among the key partners you are likely to work with (more like senior partners). The core team has some guidelines on this, including a revised TOR of their expected roles.

Annexes

Annex 1: 20XX State Political Economy Analysis Update

Annex 2: Bibliography of Key Reference Documents

Annex 3: Database of Mapped SHoA, CS, Media and IDPs

Annex 4: State Governance V&A Index: Baseline Report

Annex 5: Results of SHoA-OCAs

Annex 6: Results of CS-OCAs

Annex 7: Results of Media-OCAs

Annex 8: G&SI Assessments: Baseline Report

Annex 9: Xxxxx State Logframe

Annex 10: Xxxxx State Workplan & Budget for 20XX