CALL to ACTION: It Is Time Now to Monitor and Focus on the Actual Yields Coming Directly

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CALL TO ACTION: It is time now to monitor and focus on the “actual yields” coming directly off the combines as opposed to crop tours and/or government crop updates and reports!!

The markets over time will figure out what the true yields are – just give it some valuable time!

USA: Hurricane Harvey was 145 miles from Corpus Christi, Texas this morning and was expected to intensify while moving toward the central Texas coast all day today. Landfall is expected tonight early Saturday morning. Serious damage from flooding is expected in much of the flood plain. Personal property and infrastructure damage will be most serious. Crops in the region have been mostly harvested. Flooding is expected to be the biggest threat, although strong wind may damage agriculture and personal property near the central Texas coast and some structures will be negatively impacted as the storm comes inland. The Delta and Tennessee River Basin may be impacted by the remnants of Hurricane Harvey, but confidence is low and the timing is unclear, but probably in the middle to latter part of next week. Another tropical disturbance near Florida today will generate frequent showers and thunderstorms the remainder of this week and during the weekend in citrus and sugarcane areas. Some heavy rain is expected, but no damaging wind. The disturbance may organize into a tropical cyclone early next week as it moves northeast away from Florida. Crop damaging wind or torrential rain are not expected in sugarcane or citrus areas, although some flooding is possible. West Texas will see some showers and thunderstorms again today, Saturday and Monday with some locally strong storms, but rainfall will be mostly light. Rain will develop in the western Corn Belt today into Saturday before moving through the remainder of the Midwest Sunday into Tuesday. Low temperatures this morning slipped into the middle and upper 30s Fahrenheit in northern Wisconsin – north of crop country. Some frost likely occurred in “non- agricultural” areas. No viable threats of damaging cold are expected in North America crop areas for the next ten days. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur daily in the U.S. Delta and southeastern states over the next several days. Remnants of Hurricane Harvey could still impact both regions, but with weak steering winds after the storm moves into Texas this weekend the system needs to be closely monitored. U.S. hard red winter wheat areas will likely receive periodic rain over the next few days. Drier weather is expected next week to support great planting conditions and help support summer crop filling and maturation.

CANADA: Drought will not change in Canada’s southwestern Western Alberta, Canada, will be wettest and again during mid-to late-week next week resulting in some delay to farming activity and maintaining wet field conditions in some areas. Rain will fall in the eastern Canada Prairies today into Saturday offering some moisture for late season crops while disrupting fieldwork briefly. Ontario and Quebec, Canada corn and soybean areas be drier biased for the next seven days. Temperatures will be cool for a few days.

PROVIDED BY CWG

THE YEAR 2010

In 2010, beans were trading at or near $10.00 per bushel and cash merchandisers were “screaming” for producers to sell (price) all their projected inventory as yields were “expected” to be at or near record levels.

However, once the combines rolled, we quickly discounted yields even well below trade estimates and the soybean market took off like a rocket!

From September 2010 to January 2011, the soybean market was on a tear and rallies all the way to $14.30 per bushel – again the combine monitor didn’t lie and told the true story.

I am not saying the above scenario is going to take place in 2017/2018 – but I do think we need to be very aggressive in validating yields off of the combines especially in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Ohio, Nebraska, the Dakotas, and Minnesota. (All the above states had pockets of dryness all during the growing season!) INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

Any questions and/or interest in soy strategies going into harvest, please contact me or one of the staff and we will help you.

China’s demand for soybeans is transitioning to the new crop season and remains very brisk.

I have been trading nearly 40 years in the commodities market and have seen almost every scenario of price and spread relations you can imagine – but I have never seen deferred months of Kansas City Wheat priced nearly $1.00 per bushel over the nearby (front month) contracts. INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

This market has gone “well beyond” full carry and over time will self correct itself – but it may take some time!!

If nothing else, winter wheat prices (USA) are cheap enough to support better export numbers in the days/weeks just ahead.

For every action there is always an equal and opposite reaction – over time.

THOUGHT FOR THE DAY: “Before you go into a canyon, know how you will get out.”

-Cowboy Saying-

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