Supplementary Table 1: Search strategy for EMBASE search (modified for other database searches)

1 Supplementary Table 2: Critical Appraisal – Modified Cohort CASP

Crit Allcock et Alti Baird et Boerl D’Astolfo De Leong Mc Sawyer et S T Tsai et T T Torv Wei Wo Wo Wo Zan erio al [10] par al, [35] age and cke and Nuo Cle al [38] m a al [28] s s ik et ner n n et n et occ n ma [21] Humphre r et [34] an al e e al et et al al hi k ys [41] al and br et a [26] al al, [31] [1] et and [25] Hig u al n [23] [37 al Alti gin g , d ] [30] par bot g [4 H ma ha e 2] o k m et [ [27] [33] al 2 [3 9 2] ] 1                     2   X        X  X        3 X     X  X X  X          4 X   X  X X X X  X X         5 X  X X    X   X  X       X 6 N/C N/C N/C N/C N/C N/C N/C N/C N/C  N N/C   N/C N/C N/  N/C N/C / C 7 N/C N/C N/C N/C N/C N/C N/C N/C N/C  N N/C X X N/C N/C N/  N/C N/C / C 8 X                   

9 X X X X       X  X        10       X X X X X    X     X Qu L M M M H M M L M H L M M H M H H H H M ality Jud ge me nt  - yes; x – no; N/C – Not Clear; Quality Judgement = 0-4 (L-Low); 5-7 (M-Moderate); 8-10 (H-High).

Criteria

2 1. Did the study address a clearly focused issue?

2. Was the cohort recruited in an acceptable way?

3. Was the exposure accurately measured to minimize bias?

4. Was the outcome accurately measure to minimize bias?

5. Have the authors identified all important confounding factors?

6. Was the follow up of the subjects complete enough?

7. Was the follow up of subjects long enough?

8. Where confidence intervals presented?

9. Were the results generalisable to the general population?

10. Do the results of this study fit with other available evidence?

3