<p>Supplementary Table 1: Search strategy for EMBASE search (modified for other database searches)</p><p>1 Supplementary Table 2: Critical Appraisal – Modified Cohort CASP</p><p>Crit Allcock et Alti Baird et Boerl D’Astolfo De Leong Mc Sawyer et S T Tsai et T T Torv Wei Wo Wo Wo Zan erio al [10] par al, [35] age and cke and Nuo Cle al [38] m a al [28] s s ik et ner n n et n et occ n ma [21] Humphre r et [34] an al e e al et et al al hi k ys [41] al and br et a [26] al al, [31] [1] et and [25] Hig u al n [23] [37 al Alti gin g , d ] [30] par bot g [4 H ma ha e 2] o k m et [ [27] [33] al 2 [3 9 2] ] 1                     2   X        X  X        3 X     X  X X  X          4 X   X  X X X X  X X         5 X  X X    X   X  X       X 6 N/C N/C N/C N/C N/C N/C N/C N/C N/C  N N/C   N/C N/C N/  N/C N/C / C 7 N/C N/C N/C N/C N/C N/C N/C N/C N/C  N N/C X X N/C N/C N/  N/C N/C / C 8 X                   </p><p>9 X X X X       X  X        10       X X X X X    X     X Qu L M M M H M M L M H L M M H M H H H H M ality Jud ge me nt  - yes; x – no; N/C – Not Clear; Quality Judgement = 0-4 (L-Low); 5-7 (M-Moderate); 8-10 (H-High).</p><p>Criteria</p><p>2 1. Did the study address a clearly focused issue?</p><p>2. Was the cohort recruited in an acceptable way?</p><p>3. Was the exposure accurately measured to minimize bias?</p><p>4. Was the outcome accurately measure to minimize bias?</p><p>5. Have the authors identified all important confounding factors?</p><p>6. Was the follow up of the subjects complete enough?</p><p>7. Was the follow up of subjects long enough?</p><p>8. Where confidence intervals presented?</p><p>9. Were the results generalisable to the general population?</p><p>10. Do the results of this study fit with other available evidence?</p><p>3</p>