Asia Bond Monitor 2008
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Asia Bond Monitor 2008 November 2008 asianbondsonline.adb.org The Asia Bond Monitor (ABM) reviews Emerging East Asian Local Currency Bond recent developments in East Asian local Markets: A Regional Update currency bond markets along with the outlook, risks, and policy options. The ABM Highlights covers the 10 Association of Southeast Asian Nations member countries plus the Recent Bond Market Developments People’s Republic of China; Hong Kong, China; and the Republic of Korea. • During the first half of 2008, emerging East Asia’s local currency bond markets grew slower from end-2007; bonds outstanding-to- GDP fell marginally—trends that continued into the second half. Contents • Government bond issuance continues to dominate the market, driven by deficit financing and monetary sterilization, while Recent Bond Market Developments 5 corporate bond market activity slowed as borrowing costs Size and Composition 5 Maturity Structure 11 increased and credit dried up. Turnover 14 • Government bond yield movements in emerging East Asia went Bond Yields 14 through three distinct phases in 2008: Bond Index Returns 21 Regulatory Developments 22 — most yield curves shifted up during the first half as many Outlook, Risks, and Policy central banks raised interest rates to fight inflation; Challenges 24 External Market Environment 24 — yield curves shifted downward from July to early September as Regional Economic Trends and the severity of the global credit crisis deepened and inflationary Outlook for 2009 28 expectations peaked; Risks to the Outlook 40 Policy Challenges 42 — global credit markets seized-up in September and the Market Summaries 58 combination of an investor “flight-to-quality” and emergency measures drove yields in government bonds lower. Boxes Flight-to-Quality Increases Local • Returns on local currency bonds were lackluster in 2008 as Currency Government Bonds 8 investors reduced exposure to high-risk assets amid tightening How to Increase Bond Market Liquidity—an AsianBondsOnline global liquidity and increased market volatility. Survey 12 • Foreign holdings of local currency government bonds rose as The “Crisis Factor” in Korean Bond Market Development 32 investors shed riskier assets, a sign of growing confidence in Broadening the Investor Base 50 emerging East Asia’s bond markets. Initiatives to Develop Local Currency Bond Markets 54 • In the first half, market liberalization, product innovation, and diversification continued despite simmering global market turmoil; but most were placed on standby as the crisis deepened. How to reach us Asian Development Bank Outlook, Risks, and Policy Challenges Office of Regional Economic Integration 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City • Contagion from the US credit turmoil rapidly hit global financial 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines Telephone markets, with significant spillover into the real economy. +63 2 632 6688 Facsimile • Concern over rising inflation, which dominated policy discussions +63 2 636 2183 in emerging East Asia in the first half of 2008, have given way to E-mail [email protected] policies addressing deteriorating economic growth. Continued overleaf Acronyms, Abbreviations, and Notes • Against this backdrop and the need to stabilize troubled financial 1H08 First half, 2008 markets, monetary policy has shifted to a more accommodative 1H07 First half, 2007 stance in most countries, a trend likely to continue into 2009. ABF Asian Bond Fund ABM Asia Bond Monitor • The acceleration of capital outflows, coupled with tightened credit ABS asset-backed securities ABMI Asian Bond Markets Initiative could choke off funds for investment and raise financing costs. ACN Asia Currency Note ADB Asian Development Bank • Tight dollar liquidity, deleveraging, and weakening regional ALBI Asian Local Bond Index (HSBC) currencies may dampen foreign investor interest in local currency ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations BI Bank Indonesia corporate bonds. BIDS Bond Information and Dissemination System • Given the expected slowdown in global and regional growth, BNM Bank Negara Malaysia economies which have relatively comfortable fiscal balances BNMN Bank Negara Monetary Notes BOK Bank of Korea and public debt are likely to introduce fiscal stimulus packages, BOT Bank of Thailand boosting government bond issuance. BSP Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Btr Bureau of the Treasury (Philiipines) • Apart from immediate market stabilization measures, lessons from CBO Collateralized bond obligation CDO Collateralized Debt Obligation the current crisis can be applied to future policies to strengthen CDS credit default swap the development of local currency bond markets: CGIM credit guarantee and investment mechanism — Strengthen international supervisory and regulatory CHIBOR China Interbank Offered Rate CLO Collateralized loan obligations coordination, cooperation, convergence, and surveillance; CP Commercial Paper CSS Contractual Savings Sectors — Strengthen risk assessment and risk management; CSV Contractual Savings Vehicles CTB Chamber of Thrift Banks — Promote consistent standards and mutual recognition; DvP delivery versus payment EB exchangeable bond — Improve transparency by better valuation and accounting of ECB European Central Bank off-balance sheet instruments; EFBN Exchange Fund Bills and Notes EMEAP Executives Meeting of East Asia-Pacific — Prudently liberalize cross-border financial services and capital Central Banks ETP Electronic trading platform accounts; EU European Union FAST Fully Automated System for Issuing/ — Devise countercyclical policies for the financial sector; Tendering FSC Financial Supervisory Commission — Strengthen or expand existing regional initiatives such as the G7 Group of Seven industrialized nations GDP gross domestic product Asian Bond Markets Initiative and Asian Bond Fund. GOCC government-owned and controlled corporations or GOCCS HKMA Hong Kong Monetary Authority IMF International Monetary Fund ITC Investment trust companies Korea Republic of Korea RTB retail treasury bond KORIBOR Korea Interbank Offered Rate S$NEER Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate KOSPI Korea Composite Stock Price Index SBI Sertifikat Bank Indonesia KTB Korea Treasury Bond SBV State Bank of Viet Nam KTBi Korea Treasury Bond (inflation linked) SC Malaysia Securities Commission LCY local currency SDA special deposit accounts MAS Monetary Authority of Singapore SEC Securities and Exchange Commission (Philippines) MBS mortgage-backed securities SGS Singapore Government Securities MGS Malaysian Government Security SGX Singapore Exchange MOF Ministry of Finance SRO self-regulating organization MOFE Ministry of Finance and Economy TF task force MPC Monetary Policy Committee ThaiBMA Thai Bond Market Association MSB Monetary Stabilization Bond UK United Kingdom MTM mark-to-market US United States NPL nonperforming loans US Fed United States Federal Reserve OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation y-o-y year-on-year and Development YTD year-to-date OREI Office of Regional Economic Integration OTC over–the-counter bp = basis points PBIF Pan Asian Bond Index Fund Note: To conform with market practice, the Asia Bond Monitor uses two-letter official ISO PBOC People’s Bank of China Country Codes and three-letter currency codes rather than ADB’s standard symbols. PDEx Philippine Dealing and Exchange Corp. PDMO Public Debt Management Office The Asia Bond Monitor November 2008 was prepared by ADB’s PRC People’s Republic of China Office of Regional Economic Integration and does not necessarily REIT real estate investment trust reflect the views of ADB's Board of Governors or the countries they RENTAS ������������������������������������������Reduction of Real Time Electronic Transfer represent. of Funds repo repurchase agreement Emerging East Asian Local Currency Bond Markets at a Glance 1: Size of Emerging East Asian Local Currency Bond Markets Total bonds outstanding grew more 1H08 Growth Rate (%) slowly in the first half of 2008 than Amount in 2007. New government issuance (USD Y-o-Y YTD billion) 1H08 1H08 continues to dominate. China, People’s Rep. of 2,004.22 31.86 11.41 Hong Kong, China 92.64 (6.85) (5.47) Indonesia 82.88 (2.65) (4.48) Korea, Rep. of 985.91 7.91 3.88 Malaysia 187.49 27.19 12.76 Philippines 56.67 10.59 6.22 Singapore 138.58 15.36 7.66 Thailand 150.23 16.16 7.13 Viet Nam 11.90 75.49 27.76 Total Emerging East Asia 3,710.53 20.74 8.15 Government 2,690.20 22.16 9.13 Corporate 1,020.33 17.17 5.67 Sources: People’s Republic of China (ChinaBond); Hong Kong, China (Hong Kong Monetary Authority); Indonesia (Indonesia Stock Exchange and Bank Indonesia); Republic of Korea (KoreaBondWeb); Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia); Philippines (Bureau of the Treasury); Singapore (Monetary Authority of Singapore); Thailand (Bank of Thailand); and Viet Nam (Bloomberg). 2: 10-Year Selected LCY Government Bond Yields Yield curves shift downward Markets basis points change 1-�an-08 1 Jan 08–31 Oct 08 Closing as inflation eases and fear of economic slowdown increases. US -7.01 4.023 EU -43.00 4.330 Japan -3.40 1.510 PRC -135.00 4.460 Hong Kong, China -105.90 3.441 Indonesia 728.30 10.018 Malaysia 15.50 4.142 Korea, Rep. of -21.00 5.700 Philippines 289.42 6.583 Singapore 27.00 2.680 Thailand -118.40 4.955 Viet Nam 592.50 9.075 Source: Based on data from Bloomberg. 3: Writedowns and capital raised by major banks since the third quarter of 2007 (USD billions) 800 686.0 690.6 Asia is less exposed to global 700 Asset writedowns 600 Capital raised financial contagion. 500 430.9 400 359.5 298.6 300 228.1 200 32.5 100 27.0 0 W orld Am ericas Europe Asia Source: Bloomberg, October 2008. 4: Policy Rates (% per annum) 14 Bias shifting toward looser monetary 12 policies as inflation eases and oil 10 prices slide. 9.5 Indonesia 8 Philippnie s Hong Kong, China China , People's Rep. of 6.66 6 6.00 Korea, Rep. of 4.00 4 M alaysia 3.75 Thailand 3.5 2 1.50 Japan 0 0.3 Feb-06 Jun-06 Oct-06 Feb-07 Jun-07 Oct-07 Feb-08 Jun-08 Oct-08 Source: Bloomberg. 5: Credit Default Swap Spreads—Senior 5-year (Mid spread in basis points) 1400 1400 Risk premium remains elevated, more so for lower-rated sovereigns and 1200 PRC 1200 HONG KONG, CHINA high-risk corporates.