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Introduction Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs From “Change” to Gridlock? The US Midterm Elections 2010 Stormy-Annika Mildner, Henriette Rytz and Johannes Thimm SWP Comments The decisive Republican victory in the election to the House of Representatives ended a brief period of “unified government” in the United States – the rare situation in which one party controls both the US Congress and the White House. While the new balance of power might result in political gridlock, it could also rouse Republicans from their legislative obstructionism. As the majority party, they now bear the responsibility to generate constructive solutions. However, since the next presidential election cam- paign is expected to start in late 2011, this window of opportunity might not be open for long. It is not unusual for the party of the sitting dramatic with 54 seats lost in the House of president to be punished by voters in mid- Representatives. Contrary to Clinton, how- term elections. Every two years, all 435 ever, President Obama was able to keep the seats in the House of Representatives and Senate marginally under the control of his approximately one third of the 100 seats Party, with a slim 53-seat majority. in the Senate come up for election. Only once in the last 76 years has the president’s party avoided losing seats in the vote held The Swing of the Political Pendulum between two presidential elections. How- The political pendulum has thus swung ever, the losses of 2010 have been unusually back to the right, and it continues to gain severe. The Republicans gained at least six momentum. Congressional majorities are seats in the Senate (and the promise of now elected for increasingly shorter terms. Alaska senator-elect Lisa Murkowski to cau- While the midterm elections of 1994 ended cus with them). Moreover, in the House of a 40-year Democratic reign in the House of Representatives at least 63 seats went from Representatives, this time around it took the Democratic to the Republican Party, the Republicans only four years to win back which now holds the majority in this the majority. The increasing volatility of chamber (two electoral districts are still Congress will also become apparent when undecided). Even in 1994, in the first mid- more than one hundred freshmen join the terms after President Bill Clinton took ranks of the House of Representatives in office, the Democratic defeat was not as January 2011. Sixteen freshmen will enter Dr. Stormy-Annika Mildner is Senior Fellow in the Directing Staff and researcher at SWP’s The Americas Division SWP Comments 29 Henriette Rytz is Doctoral Fellow at SWP’s The Americas Division November 2010 Johannes Thimm is researcher at SWP’s The Americas Division 1 the Senate, raising the number of senators Two years ago, the share of voters under 30 serving their first term to 40 (out of 100). years old was 18%, whereas in this election While incumbents used to have major young voters accounted for only 11% of the advantages in elections, challengers now vote. Ethnic minorities like African-Ameri- have much better chances of being elected. cans, Hispanics, and Asian-Americas con- Even long-standing, distinguished members tinued to support the Democrats in strong of Congress are no longer safe from elec- numbers, but their turnout also stayed toral defeat. After more than three decades below the levels of 2008. in the House of Representatives, Ike Skelton Unlike in the elections to the House of Missouri, chair of the Armed Services of Representatives, the GOP victory in Committee, lost his seat – as did Senator the Senate elections was limited to some Russ Feingold of Wisconsin. regions. The Senate Democrats lost seats in the battleground states of the Midwest in particular. They prevailed in the Democ- Mobilizing Voters ratic strongholds along the East Coast and In 2008, Barack Obama successfully mobi- in New England, in the western states of lized Democratic voters with his promise California, Oregon, Colorado, and Nevada, of “change” and thus helped his party make as well as in the southern state of West significant gains in the Congressional elec- Virginia. tions. In 2010, by contrast, Republicans The results demonstrate that Obama outperformed Democrats in motivating did not manage to sell his political reforms their supporters to participate in the elec- to the public. The Republicans won with a tion. 42% of all voters identified themselves promise to “change course” thereby replac- as conservative – the highest rate since the ing Obama’s message of “change.” Yet, even Reagan era. Many voting blocs that two Democratic candidates who had distanced years ago had contributed to the Obama themselves from controversial projects of victory now supported the Republican Party the Obama administration were voted out by a majority. This was especially true for of office. In particular, the fiscally conserva- independents, who are not clearly aligned tive “Blue Dog Democrats,” who occupy the with any political party. While in 2008 political center and align themselves with Democrats held an 18-point advantage the GOP on certain issues, suffered heavy among independents, this time around the losses. In the last Congress their caucus Republicans led by 15 points. Moreover, a comprised 53 members – more than half majority of women, the largest of all voting will not return to Washington. blocs, backed the Republicans – for the first time since regular surveys were started in 1982. The Republicans also received the An Expensive Election Campaign majority of votes cast by the middle class At almost $4 billion in total campaign and college graduates. spending, the Congressional elections of Most significantly, the “Grand Old Party” 2010 were the most expensive midterm (GOP) benefited from older voters, who did elections ever – in 2006, campaign spend- not only vote for the Party by a majority, ing totaled $3.1 billion. The Democrats but who also increased their overall share were ahead in terms of “traditional” fund- of the total vote. Many older voters are skep- raising, which is coordinated by a party tical about Obama’s health care reform, as committee and limits donations to a they already benefit from privileged access relatively modest amount. Republican can- to health care through the Medicare pro- didates, nonetheless, raised more money gram. At the same time, turnout among overall for their election campaigns. young voters – two thirds of whom voted Two years ago, the Obama campaign for Obama in 2008 – dropped significantly. received small donations in unheard-of SWP Comments 29 November 2010 2 numbers by effectively employing modern Tea Party has been moderate. It is true that fundraising tools like online campaigning. in the primary elections a relatively large This time, the Republicans were particu- number of Tea Party supporters beat larly savvy at adapting to an altered incumbents or candidates favored by the campaign landscape. In the landmark Republican leadership. In the Senate elec- decision “Citizens United vs. Federal tions, however, only about half of all Tea Election Commission”, the United States Party candidates actually won a seat, Supreme Court ruled in January 2010 that among them Marco Rubio (Florida) and the right to free speech also covered Rand Paul (Kentucky). Moreover, several corporate funding of independent political radically conservative representatives of the broadcasts. While in 2008, the business movement were unable to prevail over their community supported Obama and the Democratic rivals because their positions Democratic Party, companies from the scared away independent voters in particu- health, finance, and real estate sectors now lar. Senate majority leader Harry Reid, for backed the Republicans. These companies example, managed to beat Sharron Angle are concerned that the health care and despite his poor approval ratings. Angle financial sector reforms as well as the wanted to abolish a host of government proposed climate legislation will burden institutions, including the Department of them with additional costs. The largest Education and Social Security – and thus share of corporate campaign spending went she was considered by many constituents to to GOP-leaning interest groups. Unlike be simply unacceptable. In the end, the Tea political parties, organizations such as Party candidates actually helped the Demo- these may accept donations in unlimited crats defend their majority in the senate. amounts and do not have to reveal the names of their donors, on one condition – the group may neither make political Voter Discontent activities its main purpose, nor explicitly More than anything else, the Republican recommend a voting decision in its victory was a protest vote against the cur- advertising or broadcasts. This way Karl rent policies of the Obama administration. Rove, Republican campaign strategist and Polls show that two thirds of all voters used former adviser to President George W. the elections to express their discontent Bush, alone raised $70 million through his with Obama’s political “balance sheet.” organizations “American Crossroads” and The major concern of voters was clearly the “Crossroads GPS.” economy, particularly with regard to the labor market. According to polls conducted by the CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, The Influence of the Tea Party in August 2009, 44% of US citizens felt that While segments of the Obama coalition of Obama’s policies had improved the eco- 2008 stayed home during these elections, nomic conditions in the country – in Octo- the newly emerged Tea Party Movement ber 2010, this rate dropped to 36%. clearly helped mobilize the Republican The recession is officially over in the base. The Tea Party rejected the bank bail- United States with the economy registering out, the stimulus package and the health positive growth in the last three quarters care reform bill as inappropriate govern- (3.7%,1.7% and 2.0% respectively), according ment interventions in the market.

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