Southern BC Chinook Strategic Planning Initiative

May 2014 CSPI: Alternative Strategic Directions for S. BC Chinook

Technical Tools available for WSP Step 4 (based on Appendix 9 of 2014 final report) This table was summarized from two conference calls held with the Technical Working Group on October 16 and 23, 2013 to discuss possible modelling tools for evaluating SBC Chinook management alternatives. RED TEXT = additions / modifications from discussions in 2015; BLUE/GREEN FILL = primary tools identified for work in 2015

Tools Primar Usability timeframe Model Scope Ability to Simulate Management Req What types Strengths & What could What could Who is able to run the model? / What y / Actions and Generate PMs (na., poor, uire of outputs Weaknesses be done in be done resources are required to run the model? Spatial secon fair, good, excellent) d can be Nov 2013 to April 2015 to extent & dary inp generated? Jan 2014 Jan 2016 resolution / Harvest Hatchery FW & Marine tool uts time frame? time frame? Time Rate / Level / Habitat for resolution / Location Location curren Stocks & CUs t need included* (should these dimensions be disaggregat ed?) CTC Data Primar -still waiting for New Should be Hatchery Not explicitly What can be catches and This is a new The tool, complete Delivery of Richmond Generation y interface to be simulation tool excellent stocks can be structured at done for escapements tool designed with a friendly final area and CWT completed in defined with this time to stocks which for each stock; to allow interface for product Microsoft Catch development changes allow for do not have run in a simulation of creating and editing later this VB -flexible gaming tool, Sampling which has permitted in specific FW CWT? forward Chinook input files and year; then programme can be structured to Module been designed total and marine Assumption is simulation population specifying different Gayle and r developed accommodate diff. to allow production, habitat effects that CWT dynamics, ‘runs’, will be ready others will the code stocks and fisheries need further flexibility in survival rate but these stocks fishery for use and testing learn how work to CTC will be NOTE: New the defined and ocean could be represent management in the latter half of to use it. convert learning as of May stock, fishery distribution manipulated other stocks, actions, 2014. Programming outputs into Then need how to use 2014. and temporal over time. through but some life hatchery and work will be forms that are to add it. Information strata. Stock parameters history types natural required to not available of interest to input data strata can be such as may not be production manipulate the Need more during SPC for each 1 to many and survival rates represented. processes output data and staff time project. stock, and each can be and stock- Lots of work over short or generate summary (e.g., grad scenarios designated as recruit done in last long time reports for desired students; of interest marked functions or, year to periods. Based metrics. Eleanore (including (mostly further improve this. on the McGrath, uncertainty hatchery- programming Fraser early numerous Rishi in origin) or work to enable group will be inputs, the Sharma) to parameters unmarked this capability decomposed tool will run models such as (mostly in the desired into 4 populate and harvest natural- fashion separate fishery regions summarize rates, origin), tagged stocks (Dome with an results sampling (i.e., the CWT associated abundance of rates of indicators) or with one of individually- fisheries). untagged (i.e., these, spring identified mass-marked 5.2). Spring Chinook hatchery 4.2 (Nicola), (stock, brood stocks). Summer 4.0, age, etc) Possible 4.1. which are fishery strata then fished Can May 2014 CSPI: Alternative Strategic Directions for S. BC Chinook

Tools Primar Usability timeframe Model Scope Ability to Simulate Management Req What types Strengths & What could What could Who is able to run the model? / What y / Actions and Generate PMs (na., poor, uire of outputs Weaknesses be done in be done resources are required to run the model? Spatial secon fair, good, excellent) d can be Nov 2013 to April 2015 to extent & dary inp generated? Jan 2014 Jan 2016 resolution / Harvest Hatchery FW & Marine tool time frame? time frame? Time Rate / Level / Habitat for resolution / Location Location curren Stocks & CUs t need included*

are incorporate (landed or preterminal external env’l released) and and terminal, effects sampled for and can be CWTs. Outputs Explore further are available effects of defined by at the most hatchery regulations detailed level. changes based on size limits and mark type. Possible temporal strata include an an annual period or multiple fishing seasons per annual cycle. Will use terminal catches as inputs for Fraser stocks. Fishery impacts driven by cumulative abundances of all stocks, both Fraser and other stocks, with ~half of them from hatcheries. David Primar David Willis of Potentially Potentially Not yet Designed for This allows Strategic level Does not yet exist, Willis y DFO is good. good. designed to single stock many different and so not feasible. Hatchery / developing a incorporate evaluations high-level potentially Harvest tool based on habitat more than very useful. summaries Analysis existing data actions. multiple stock Still under Tool (Ryan to explore the evaluations and development. Galbraith, implications of comparisons, Ultimately, the Gottfried changing such as: benefit of one Pestel) hatchery hatchery - proportion management May 2014 CSPI: Alternative Strategic Directions for S. BC Chinook

on the depends on of SEP budget harvests in what’s allocated to different happening different enh fisheries (D. with the other objectives Willis, pers. stocks comm., Feb. (overall, by 2014) species, by area) Core element - Expected is a database enh returns that links each (by species, SEP project to: by area, by - CU, Scanning objective) Unit (group of - Expected similar CU), harvest of enh and Mgmt Unit fish ( by (group of SU) species, by - area, Cdn vs enhancement US fisheries) objectives - difference in (harvest, quality of assessment, survival rate rebuilding etc) estimates (by - a best species, by available area, by survival rate objective) indicator - modelling of (biostandard) alternative - rough SEP production cost (based on scenarios and facility cost their effects and % of on various biomass) fisheries - best available catch distribution indicator (ER, harvest share) May 2014 CSPI: Alternative Strategic Directions for S. BC Chinook

Tools Primar Usability timeframe Model Scope Ability to Simulate Management Req What types Strengths & What could What could Who is able to run the model? / What y / Actions and Generate PMs (na., poor, uire of outputs Weaknesses be done in be done resources are required to run the model? Spatial secon fair, good, excellent) d can be Nov 2013 to April 2015 to extent & dary inp generated? Jan 2014 Jan 2016 resolution / Harvest Hatchery FW & Marine tool uts time frame? time frame? Time Rate / Level / Habitat for resolution / Location Location curren Stocks & CUs t need included*

CTC Model Uses actual Fair. Only Poor. Could NA. Not Used for NA catch and applies to the vary output of structured to annual encounter next year existing simulate planning data for 25 (tactical not hatcheries, but habitat (TACs), ESA fisheries, strategic). only looks at protection or issues, not a escapement impacts over restoration. forward (or terminal next year. Not planning run) data for the main focus model. 30 stock of CTC. Includes all aggregates. stocks. Includes lots Requires of parameters actual data from CWT right up to the data. Can get previous year. stock Would not be composition able to from CTC incorporate model. Highly real data from aggregated the past year. (e.g. Fraser Somewhat Late, Fraser cumbersome Early).1 for strategic gaming. Inferences CWT are Provides a NA NA Can get finer ESSA / LGL / DFO from CWT longest term summary of levels of provided SPC with data data. In CTC past total detail. Used info on which reports – N. mortality by for Fraser Chinook stocks are Troll, WCVI fishing area stocks. Might caught in which net, Fraser by year, but have some fisheries based on net, cannot DNA data for CTC mortality commercial simulate some of these distribution tables. fisheries by alternatives. stocks. Need Organized by 11 gear, FNs to make CWT indicator fisheries, SoG various stocks in SBC, which sport fishery assumptions were cross- by 3 areas to reflect referenced to CUs. and 3 time different periods. Just scenarios looking at stock composition from CTC data would be

1 See http://www.psc.org/publications_tech_techcommitteereport.htm May 2014 CSPI: Alternative Strategic Directions for S. BC Chinook

Tools Primar Usability timeframe Model Scope Ability to Simulate Management Req What types Strengths & What could What could Who is able to run the model? / What y / Actions and Generate PMs (na., poor, uire of outputs Weaknesses be done in be done resources are required to run the model? Spatial secon fair, good, excellent) d can be Nov 2013 to April 2015 to extent & dary inp generated? Jan 2014 Jan 2016 resolution / Harvest Hatchery FW & Marine tool uts time frame? time frame? Time Rate / Level / Habitat for resolution / Location Location curren Stocks & CUs t need included*

useful (what gets caught where and when). Have partial data on genetic composition. CTC aggregates catch data into about 20 fisheries, 7 are mixed stock (SE AK troll, net and sport: NBC troll and QCI sport; WCVI troll and outside sport), the rest (13) are Individual Stock Based Management (ISBM) fisheries, either terminal or in-river. Fraser run All Fraser- Fair. Could be Some NA Not designed NA reconstruc origin Chinook adapted to populations to assess tion stocks (60 simulate enhanced; if # fishery models populations) changes in in- enhanced management included, river harvest were changed, changes. Just reflects rates but does implications reported as current not represent would be abundance, harvest rates ocean reflected. but would CSAS or fisheries. need to PSARC doc; Would need separate level equal to be of vulnerability incorporated enhancement. model2. into a larger For ocean Incorporated scale model. fisheries it’s output from Is not best to have coast wide structured to all stocks

2 See http://www.frafs.ca/sites/default/files/run_reconstruction82-07.pdf and http://rem-main.rem.sfu.ca/theses/NobleCameron_2012_MRM545.pdf May 2014 CSPI: Alternative Strategic Directions for S. BC Chinook

Chinook simulate included. model. CTC stock Could be used model will this recovery to run model year be under forward with incorporating reduced different better harvest. assumptions information on Fraser R stocks from run reconstruction models. Does infilling for populations which don’t have direct estimates. Works backwards from escapement models to reconstruct abundance at mouth of Fraser. Being updated for 2013 & 2014. Tools for exploring actions in habitat protection / restoration MALBEC MALBEC = Fair, but at a Fair, but at a Fair, but at a Developed to Would likely require Model for coarse spatial coarse spatial coarse spatial “explore the a multi-year, multi- Assessing resolution resolution resolution. impacts of investigator Links Between climate commitment Ecosystems.3 change, hatchery and This was harvest originally policies, and developed for changes in pink, chum freshwater

3 See http://www.npafc.org/new/publications/Bulletin/Bulletin%20No.%205/NPAFC_Bull_5_333-354%28Mantua%29.pdf May 2014 CSPI: Alternative Strategic Directions for S. BC Chinook

and sockeye habitat (both wild and productive hatchery), and capacity at could be used the scale of for strategic the North evaluations. It Pacific would require Ocean”, but more work not intended over the to provide longer term to direct tactical adapt MALBEC advice for for Chinook. immediate Includes 146 decisions regional stock groups across the entire N Pacific, including habitat use, harvest, etc. Dave Preikshot and Nathan Taylor at DFO worked on this tool. WSP Could be used At only a very NA NA Only set up Not feasible in Nov- Benchmark to evaluate coarse for a generic Jan time frame. s different spatial/tempo population; Possible in future Modelling fisheries ral resolution would need to fiscal years. Tool management be set up for strategies, but Chinook. would need to be linked to a tool with harvest, habitat and hatchery actions4 Pacific FRAM = NA. Designed NA NA Considerable Not appropriate or Fisheries Fisheries for in-season detail on SBC feasible. Manageme Regulation management and Puget nt Council Assessment of fisheries. Sound FRAM Not a long fisheries. Data

4 See http://www.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/fm-gp/species-especes/salmon-saumon/wsp-pss/docs/strats/strat1/2009-02-05-holt.pdf May 2014 CSPI: Alternative Strategic Directions for S. BC Chinook

Tools Primar Usability timeframe Model Scope Ability to Simulate Management Req What types Strengths & What could What could Who is able to run the model? / What y / Actions and Generate PMs (na., poor, uire of outputs Weaknesses be done in be done resources are required to run the model? Spatial secon fair, good, excellent) d can be Nov 2013 to April 2015 to extent & dary inp generated? Jan 2014 Jan 2016 resolution / Harvest Hatchery FW & Marine tool time frame? time frame? Time Rate / Level / Habitat for resolution / Location Location curren Stocks & CUs t need Model.5 term strategic could be used Designed for tool. in other in-season strategic tools. management More tactical of Puget than strategic. Sound fisheries and post-season analyses. Rishi 2012-2013: Sharmi looked at Fraser-bound fish on behalf of FRAFS AHA (All H Used for Potentially Potentially Potentially Strategic Not feasible. Analyzer) subbasin good. Would good. Would good. Would level. Not yet Model planning in need to be need to be need to be developed for Columbia and adapted for adapted for adapted for SBC Chinook Okanagan SBC Chinook SBC Chinook SBC Chinook stocks. Basin at a stocks. stocks. stocks. strategic level.6 AHA allows users to explore changes in habitat, hatchery, hydro and harvest actions. Includes functional relationships from more detailed models such as EDT (Ecosystem Diagnosis and Treatment)7.

5 See http://www.pcouncil.org/salmon/background/document-library/fishery-regulation-assessment-model-fram-documentation/ 6 See http://www.fws.gov/pacific/fisheries/hatcheryreview/documents/all-hanalyzerdraftusersguideaug05.pdf and http://www.hatcheryreform.us/hrp/tools/welcome_show.action and https://nrm.dfg.ca.gov/FileHandler.ashx?DocumentID=15308 7 http://www.icfi.com/insights/products-and-tools/edt3