The Following Is the Monthly Patronage Figure Captured from MTR Corporation Website
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HW Forecasting Name:
The following is the monthly patronage figure captured from MTR Corporation Website.
#1 Please use Weighted Moving Average Approach to forecast the MTR Lines monthly total of patronage of April, 2011. The weighted factors from Mar – Sept 2010 are 0.3 (most recent), 0.2, 0.1, 0.1, 0.1, 0.1, 0.1 respectively.
#2 Please use simple exponential smoothing approach to forecast the Airport Express monthly total of patronage of April, 2011. Use α = 0.2, and let the initial forecast of Sept, 2010 is equal to the actual value.
#Extra Credit Why simple exponential smoothing is called "exponential"? (Hint: Derive the simple exponential smoothing formula further)