There Are Several Reasons As to Why Tibet Will Not Pose Any Major Problems to the CCP

Brent Navarro September 15, 2007

Tibet: Assessing it’s Potential for China’s Instability

Introduction

There has been much debate about whether China will be unstable in the future. Some scholars have cited that

China's stability will be determined by the rapid growth of

China, others the disparity between rich and poor. Finally, there are those who believe that local insurrections, like those in Tibet, would play a role if China were to become unstable. These issues make for important discussion but the issue concerning Tibet as a destabilizing factor for the whole of China should not be of concern for Beijing.

Tibetans have demonstrated that they do not have the will or the determination to overthrow the Chinese Communist

Party (CCP). The CCP has exercised its control over the region and has integrated it into the fold of the mainland.

The problems Tibet has created for the CCP are nothing the central government cannot handle while the central governments assertiveness in the region has remained strong.

In making these assertions, it is useful to cite statistics of China. China’s security minister, Zhou

Yongkang announced that 3.7 million citizens have participated in 74,000 protests in 2004. They have also cited that protests have increased to 87,000 in 2005.1 This is a trivial problem considering that there were 1.3 billion Chinese in 2005.2 This shows that less than three tenth of a percent of China’s population participated in protests for that year. Furthermore, China only has 9 percent of an ethnic minority population. In comparison,

Soviet Russia had 49% non Russians prior to its collapse.

Even then, this factor probably was a minor factor that played only had a minimal role in the Soviet Union’s collapse.3 Given the statistical data of China’s uprisings, it can be concluded that China’s stability will not depend on Tibetan uprisings. The uprisings are small when taking into account the population of all of China. China’s local insurrections, particularly the uprisings by Tibetans who want independence, will not play a role in destabilizing

China in the near future.

There are several reasons why Tibet will not pose any major problems to the CCP. Most of these reasons stem from the asymmetrical power relationship between the CCP and

1 “China: Hu's power play,” Ian Bremmer; 04 March 2007, 0001; from International Herald Tribune, 14 July 2006; http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/07/14/opinion/edbremmer.php. 2 “China's population reaches 1.307 bln 2005,” Posted by Sina English; 04 March 2007; from Xinhua English, 16 March 2006, 06:27GMT; http://english.sina.com/china/1/2006/0316/69560.html. 3 Barry Sautman, “China’s Strategic Vulnerability to Minority Separatism in Tibet,” Asian Affairs: An American Review 32.2 (2005): 94 Tibetans. First, many Tibetan’s do not have the desire or the will to struggle against the central government.

Protests in the region have dwindled while many Tibetans in exile have moved to western countries with no indications of a desire to move back. The Dalai Lama, the spiritual leader of Tibet has claimed on January 2007 that Tibet was part of China. This was a gesture of defeat for the many free Tibet movements. Second, International Support for the region has dwindled. The United States no longer funds

Tibetan militia, countries that were once ambiguous on

Tibet no longer show support, and no country has recognized

Tibet as separate from China. Third, the current UN under

General Secretary Ban Ki-moon seems to lean more favorably towards Beijing politics. Fourth, China has been able to infiltrate Tibetan culture. Signs of CCP life pollute the ancient city of Lhasa. The economic reforms by the Chinese

Government have caused more cohesiveness between Tibet and the CCP. Finally, the CCP has also chosen their own spiritual leaders for the Tibetans ensuring that Tibetan spiritual leaders are loyal to the party. China’s relationship with the region favor the Chinese central government indicating that Tibet will not pose a major problem for Tibet in the coming decade.

Tibetan’s are losing their Willingness to Continue Through their actions, Tibetan’s conceded their land to the CCP. Although they have not done it formally, there is a defeated attitude among the populous and their leader the Dalai Lama. Tibetan’s moral vigor has waned since their country had been controlled by China and there seems to be no sign that they are willing to renew their struggle for their regions independence. The greatest expression of

Tibetan defeat is from their spiritual leader the Dalai

Lama himself.

The Dalai Lama once had a positive outlook on Tibetan affairs. He had claimed in 1992 that Tibet would one day regain its freedom from China.4 The Dalai Lama had also asserted that China would disintegrate and Tibet would be free in five to ten years.5 In a 1993 interview with the New

York Times, the Dalai Lama showed empathy for those who committed guerilla warfare in trying to free Tibet, “I'm always against violence. But the Tibetan guerrillas were very dedicated people. They were willing to sacrifice their own lives for the Tibetan nation.”6 However strong these statements have been they were made almost a decade ago and

4 “His Holiness the Dalai Lama's Vision for a Future Free Tibet,” Dalai Lama; 02 March 2007, 0001; from The Office of Tibet, 26 February 1992, 08:08 PST; http://www.tibet.com/future.html. 5 Sautman, op. cit., p.92. 6 “His Holiness Dalai Lama interview,” Claudia Dreifus; 02 March 2007; from The New York Times, 28 November 1993; http://www.dharmaweb.org/index.php/His_Holiness_Dalai_Lama_interview_- _New_York_Times. he has since changed his attitude toward China/Tibet relations.

In recent statements, the Dalai Lama has shown a more conciliatory stance towards CCP rule. He has claimed that it is in Tibet’s interest to be part of China and that

China was economically powerful.7 The Dalai Lama has also been quoted as saying, “We are willing to be part of the

People's Republic of China, to have it govern and guarantee to preserve our Tibetan culture, spirituality and our environment...As the material development of China moves forward we gain materially”8 The spiritual leader of the

Tibetan people who once touted that China would disintegrate and that Tibet would be free from Beijing rule has taken a submissive stance towards China. The Dalai Lama has not only submitted to the PRC politically and economically but spiritually as well. The Dalai Lama has probably realized that it is easier to have peace in the

Tibetan region if he concedes to China.

The Tibetan populous has also shown signs of subjection by immigrating to western countries from both

7 “Tibet’s Interest is to Remain with China: Dalai Lama,” Posted by Daily News & Analysis; 02 March 2007; from PTI, 24 December 2006, 16:43 IST; http://www.dnaindia.com/report.asp?NewsID=1070951. 8 “Tibet ready to sacrifice sovereignty, says leader,” Richard Spencer, 02 March 2007; from Telegraph.co.uk, 15 March 2005, 1:06am GMT; http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml? xml=/news/2005/03/15/wdalai15.xml. land appropriated to them by India and the Tibetan autonomous region. In 1991 there were approximately less than one hundred Tibetans in the US while in 2004 there were ten thousand. In 1992 Canada had six hundred Tibetans but in 2004 there were four thousand. In 2005 there were three thousand Tibetans in Switzerland, seven hundred in

Belgium, and six hundred in London.9 Currently the Tibetan population in Tibet is four million but that is trivial when taken into the larger context that there are approximately seven million Han Chinese in Tibet.10 In response to this trend of immigration, the Dalai Lama has urged Tibetan youth to resist emigrating to the west citing that there is a danger they could lose their culture.11

Tibetan’s actions have shown trends that they are accepting their fate. There leader seems to be more conciliatory to the idea of Tibet being part of China and has been a promoter of non-violence in order to gain more freedom from China.12 Tibetan émigrés seem to be less

9 Sautman, op. cit., p.103. 10 “Railway at Roof of World Completed,” Benjamin Robertson; 02 March 2007; from The Scotsman.com, 17 Oct 2005, 09:56 GMT; http://news.scotsman.com/international.cfm?id=2099632005.; “Ethnic Minorities in Tibet,” 04 March 2007; from China Tibet Information Center; http://www.tibetinfor.com/tibetzt/ssmz_en/tibetan/001.htm. 11 “Dalai Lama Asks Tibetans To Resist Westernization,” Posted by World Tibet Network News; 02 March 2007; from Associated Press, 15 November 1999; http://www.tibet.ca/en/wtnarchive/1999/11/15_1.html. 12 “Tibetan Youth Campaign in US for Dalai Lama,” Brent Hurd, Posted by Phayul.com; 03 March 2007; from Voice of America, 01 March 2007, 10:31 GMT; http://www.phayul.com/news/article.aspx?id=15687. willing to make sacrifices to preserve their culture in light of westernization. In the face of the growing number of Han Chinese moving into Tibet, it is unlikely that

Tibetans will be a source of trouble for the Communist

Party.

International Support for Tibet has Decreased

There was a time when international support for the

Tibetan cause was much stronger than it has been recently.

In previous decades India has appropriated land for

Tibetan’s, the United States funded Tibetan guerilla movements, and UN resolutions were being passed in support of Tibet. However, this type of international support has since decreased. Various governments have shown more reconciliation with China and made Tibet a minor issue.

China will not have to worry about Tibet being an issue when it comes to negotiating with other countries. The less the international community worries about Tibet the more chance China has at maintaining stability and control within that region.

Perhaps the biggest show of support for the free Tibet movement in the past was when the government of India agreed to accept the Dalai Lama and Tibetan refugees into their country. At the end of May 1959 there were 7,000 Tibetan refugees who had entered India.13 The Indian government offered land that the Tibetans could use to farm on and even a headquarters in Dharamsala in Himachal

Pradesh.14 Relationships between India and China were strained during this period despite efforts by both sides to subside their differences.15

Another country to show their support for the free

Tibet movement was the United States. The CIA had funded the Tibetan exile movement with $1,735,000 and had given the Dalai Lama an annual subsidy of $180,000. The CIA also trained Tibetan rebels in Nepal and Colorado.16 Support for the Tibetan movement stopped in 1971 when President Nixon and Henry Kissinger pursued a policy of rapprochement with

China.17

From the late 1950’s to early 1960’s the United

Nations body was more vocal in expressing their concern for

Tibet. Three major resolutions were passed by the UN:

13 Chen Jian, “The Tibetan Rebellion of 1959 and China's Changing Relations with India and the Soviet Union,” Journal of Cold War Studies 8.3 (2006): 54. 14 “The Free Tibet Movement: A Selective Narrative,” John Powers, Posted by Journal of Buddhist Ethics; 04 March 2007; from Engaged Buddhism in the West, 2000, 12:50; http://www.buddhistethics.org/7/powers001.html. 15 Jian, op. cit., p. 80-89. 16 “CIA Gave Aid to Tibetan Exiles in '60s, Files Show,” Jim Mann; 04 March 2007; from The Los Angeles Times, 15 September 1998; http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=34059556&sid=5&Fmt=3&clie ntId=1568&RQT=309&VName=PQD. 17 Powers, op. cit., http://www.buddhistethics.org/7/powers001.html. Resolution 1353, Resolution 1723, and Resolution 2079.18

These resolutions showed the sympathy the International

Community had for Tibet. All these resolutions were less than five years apart from each other and each expressed concern for the human rights violations China was accused of committing on Tibetans. There has since been no major resolution by the United Nations concerning Tibetan affairs.19

Currently, the International Community as a whole does not support Tibet independence or recognize the Dalai Lama as the political leader of Tibet. The EU Parliament has cited that China has colonized Tibet and also condemns the human rights violations of Tibetans by Chinese authorities but both the UN and EU have not shown support for Tibetan independence.20 There are also four countries that have met with the Dalai Lama with the title “Head of State of the

Tibetan Government-in-Exile” but none of them recognize the

Dalai Lama as Tibet’s political leader. The Dalai Lama has

18 “Resolutions on Tibet,” Posted by The Office of Tibet; 04 March 2007; from The Government of Tibet in Exile, 25 September 2002; http://www.tibet.com/Resolution/. 19 “UN General Assembly Resolutions,”; 04 March 2007; from International Campaign for Tibet, 10 Jan 2007, 18:14 GMT; http://www.savetibet.org/advocacy/un/resolutions/index.php. 20 Barry Sautman, “Resolving the Tibet Question: problems and prospects,” Journal of Contemporary China 11 (2002): 92.; “European parliament backs negotiations on future of Tibet,” Posted by Canada Tibet Committee; 04 March 2007; from AFP, 14 March 1997, http://www.tibet.ca/en/wtnarchive/1997/3/14_1.html. at most been recognized as a spiritual leader of Tibet by the countries that have received him.21

Lately, governments that were friendly to the Dalai

Lama have since changed their political stances more favorably towards Beijing. The United States had asked the

Dalai Lama to recognize PRC sovereignty over Tibet in order for negotiations between Beijing and Tibet to continue.22

Countries that were once ambiguous towards the status of

Tibet have since changed their stances. Before 2000 Denmark had refused to comment on the status of Tibet until Prime

Minister Poul Nyrup Ramussen affirmed that Tibet was part of China. The United Kingdom had for a long time claimed that China did not control Tibet until October 1999 when a spokesperson for Tony Blair asserted that the UK recognized

China’s sovereignty over Tibet.23 In 2003 China and India had reached an agreement on the status of Tibet. India had formally recognized the Tibetan autonomous region as part of China.24

21 “Tibet-Why are We Silent?,” Sue Williams, Posted by Canada Tibet Committee; 04 March 2007; from The Martlet, 9 March 2007; http://www.tibet.ca/en/wtnarchive/2000/3/13-2_1.html. 22 PBS.org,"U.S. Department of State: China Country Report on Human Rights Practices for 1998"; available from http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/asia/jan-june99/state_report_2-26.html; Internet; accessed 17 March 2007. 23 Sautman, op. cit., p. 92-93. 24 Azevedo, Mary Ann and Denise Youngblood Coleman, “China: 2007 Country Review,” Country Watch (2007): 19. The emerging trend that the international community no longer prioritizes Tibet when dealing with China shows that

Tibet will not be an issue in China’s future stability. The

Tibetan movement is already weak in that region. China has been able to successfully stomp local insurrections and maintain control. The international communities non- pursuant of the Tibetan issue allow China to maintain more control over a region that they already have strength over.

Large support for Tibet will no longer be a problem in

China’s foreign policy making it less likely to be a factor in China’s future stability.

UN Secretary General and the UN

According to the Charter of the UN, the UN prides itself in being an international organization that is determined to “promote social progress and better standards of life” and to unite themselves in strength to “maintain international peace and security.”25 The UN Secretary

General plays a key role as “chief administrative officer” of the UN and a spokesperson for the interests of the world’s people in particular “the poor and vulnerable among them.”26 The Secretary General plays an important role in

25 Charter of the United Nations,"Preamble"; available from http://www.un.org/aboutun/charter/index.html; Internet; accessed 15 September 2007. 26 Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon,"The Role of the Secretary-General"; available from http://www.un.org/sg/sgrole.shtml; Internet; accessed 15 September 2007. facilitating discussion of political issues around the world no matter how controversial they may be. Since taking office, the current secretary General Ban Ki-moon and the

UN have silenced debate and discussion on issues pertaining to China provinces that want self determination from

Beijing. This can work against Tibet and further stabilize

China’s hold on the region.

Ban Ki-moon has showed preference towards Beijing politics through the rejection of Taiwan’s president Chen

Shui-bian’s application to have Taiwan be admitted as a country into the United Nations.27 This has been the 15th time that Taiwan has submitted an application and been rejected by the organization. However, the manner in which it was done was unorthodox. Ban Ki-moon simply said that

Taiwan’s letter could not be received although the United

Nations charter shows that the Security Council and the general assembly have the final say on who the new member states are. Ban Ki-moon cited UN resolution number 2758 which states the recognition of the PRC as the lawful representatives of China to the UN.28 Critics of the decision by Ban Ki-moon cited that the resolution never

27 The Guardian,"Insulting and Dangerous"; available from http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,,2161128,00.html; Internet; accessed 15 September 2007. 28 One China Committee,"UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 (1971)"; available from http://www.onechinacommittee.org/unresolution.htm; Internet; accessed 15 September 2007. mentions Taiwan by name and that the rejection of the application was based simply on Ban Ki-moon’s interpretation of the resolution. China’s representatives have shown their frustration with Taiwan’s letter citing it as “absolutely preposterous.”29 Whether or not Ban Ki-moon’s decision to reject the letter based on the UN resolution

2758 was right or wrong there is no denying Ban Ki-moon took it upon himself to reject Taiwan’s application.

Another incident in which Ban Ki-moon and the UN silenced an issue concerning China was with the issue of

Tibet self determination. At a UN press conference, accredited journalist and author of several UN and human rights books, Jean-Claude Buhrer, told UN officials he intended to ask Ban Ki-moon questions regarding Tibet.30

However, Buhrer was not given the opportunity to ask any questions. After the session, Buhrer approached the

Secretary General personally asking him whether the UN would work on Tibet independence just as the UN has been working with Kosovo’s. Before Ban was able to respond he was immediately cut off by his spokesperson and led out of the room.

29 Embassy of the People's Republic of China in the United States of America,"China condems attempt to create 'Taiwan independence' (08/31/07)"; available from http://www.china- embassy.org/eng/xw/t357410.htm; Internet; accessed 15 September 2007. 30 UN Watch,"UN censors questions to U.N. chief on Tibet"; available from http://www.unwatch.org/site/c.bdKKISNqEmG/b.1289203/apps/s/content.asp? ct=4215815; Internet; accessed 15 September 2007. The UN and Ban Ki-moon’s preference towards Beijing can be disastrous for activists that want Tibet to be free or who prefer Beijing to allow the region to be more autonomous. The PRC will not have to worry about being hampered by the UN in regards to its “One-China” policy if the current trend continues. Considering that Ban Ki-moon has just gotten elected, the UN does not appear to be a threat to the potential for China’s instability.

It is not in the U.S. Interests to Antagonize China

It is also in U.S. interest not to antagonize China about issues concerning Tibet. With the Cold War over, issues of funding Tibetan militants to counter communism is no longer important. One topic of significant importance for both the U.S. and China to cooperate on is trade. The

U.S. has shown frustration over China’s trade surplus, the undervalue of yuan, and copyright violations such as software piracy.31 The U.S. has also been concerned over security issues with North Korea and China has played a huge role in containing North Korea, a state some claim to be the last remnant of Cold War tension.

The U.S. has more concerns over China’s long term interests in the realm of economy. There have been

31 Comparative Connections, "U.S.- China Relations: Promoting Cooperation, Managing Friction"; available from www.csis.org/pacfor/ccejournal.html ; Internet; accessed 12 September 2007. projections that China’s GDP will average 7.8% in the next

10 years which means a double in size in less than 10 years.32 China’s rapid growth in low cost labor and production facilities are attractive to many multinational corporations. The rapid growth of the economy has also lead to a need for energy and raw materials which has influenced the price of world commodities such as oil and could play a role if China were to become involved in future Middle East affairs. Perhaps the most important of these issues is the concern of China’s ownership of U.S. government debt. There is fear that China may use that to sway the U.S. on political or economic matters. China could in effect slow the U.S. economy.

The U.S. is also trying to better their relationship with China because of close bi-lateral relationship the PRC has with North Korea. There have been many instances of support for North Korea by China, particularly during the

Korean War and later for both Kim Il Sung and Kim Jung Il’s regime.33 The North Korean government was also one of the first countries to have diplomatic relationships with China

32 Congressional Research Service,"China’s Economic Conditions"; available from http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33534.pdf; Internet; accessed 13 September 2007. 33 Council on Foreign Relations,"The China-North Korea Relationship"; available from http://www.cfr.org/publication/11097/#2; Internet; accessed 12 September 2007. by recognizing the new Beijing government.34 During the

1960’s Kim Il Sung was more sympathetic to China during

Sino-Soviet tensions.35 The two countries had also signed a

1953 economic and cooperation agreement and in 1961 signed a Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance.

China has also provided support through food and fuel and has invested heavily to keep North Korea from collapsing.

It is clear that if North Korea were to collapse, China would have to deal with North Korean refugees attempting to cross into China.36

The U.S. also realizes China’s concerns with North

Korea could play to their advantage. Aside from being North

Korea’s chief ally, China realizes the strategic importance of North Korea. North Korea acts as a buffer between democratic states such as South Korea and the U.S. forces stationed there, a diversion to China’s own military build- up, and have economic issues at stake in the form of foreign investment and trade with China.37 China is in some

34 Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China,"Bilateral Relations"; available from http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/wjb/zzjg/yzs/gjlb/2701/default.htm; Internet; accessed 12 September 2007. 35 Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars,"Uneasy Allies: Fifty Years of China-North Korea Relations"; available from http://www.wilsoncenter.org/topics/pubs/asia_rpt115b.pdf; Internet; accessed 12 September 2007. 36 ibid., http://www.cfr.org/publication/11097/#2. 37 Congressional Research Service,"The North Korean Economy: Overview and Policy Analysis"; available from http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL32493.pdf; Internet; accessed 12 September 2007. ways dependent on North Korea for its own strategic interests.

Given the security issues concerning North Korea and the influence China has on that region in addition to the economic importance of China, the U.S. has to cooperate with China for its own strategic interests. Tibetan independence issues would only hurt their objectives of keeping peace with China. Antagonizing China with issues that do not concern U.S. interests would only hinder U.S.-

China cooperation.

The Death of Tibetan Culture

The CCP has successfully integrated Tibet closer to mainland China through propaganda, Tibetan economic reforms, and by selecting new spiritual leadership for

Tibet. These three things have allowed Tibet to be more aligned with Beijing at the cost of losing their cultural heritage. Tibet’s integration with China and the further alienation of Tibetan’s from their ancient heritage make it improbable that China would be unstable in the near future.

China has successfully assimilated most of Tibetan culture into the fold of the PRC. Traditional Tibetan landmarks are being overrun by Chinese architecture. The

Potala Palace, which is the traditional home of the Dalia Lama, has a public square reminiscent of Tiananmen Square.38

The influx of Chinese has caused ethnic Tibetans to be marginalized. There is three million more Han Chinese than ethnic Tibetans.39 The Tibetan enclave is 4% of Lhasa’s land area. Tourists guides in the area talk about Tibet from a

Communist Party stand point while in the Tashilhunpo monastery, which is traditional seat of the Panchen Lama,

President Jiang Zemin’s calligraphy is exhibited asking the

Tibetans to strive for the good of the nation.40 The PRC has overtaken Tibet with communist ideologies.

Infrastructure projects under the PRC have further brought Tibet closer to the mainland. In 1990, modern industry was introduced to the valleys of the major waterways of central Tibet: Yarlung Zangbo, Nyang Qu, and

Lhasha rivers. The State Council confirmed that this development was important in order to stabilize Tibet.

Modern Industry had brought Tibet electricity, textile/handicrafts, mining, and tourism into Tibet.41 In

38 “Visit Tibet, but Go with Low Expectations,” Maria Cheng; 04 March 2007; from Time Asia, 20 November 2000; http://www.time.com/time/asia/travel/2000/1120/index.html. 39 “Railway at Roof of World Completed,” Benjamin Robertson; 02 March 2007; from The Scotsman.com, 17 Oct 2005, 09:56 GMT; http://news.scotsman.com/international.cfm?id=2099632005.; “Ethnic Minorities in Tibet,” 04 March 2007; from China Tibet Information Center; http://www.tibetinfor.com/tibetzt/ssmz_en/tibetan/001.htm. 40 Cheng, op. cit., http://www.time.com/time/asia/travel/2000/1120/index.html 41 June Teufel Dreyer, “Economic Development in Tibet under the People's Republic of China,” Journal of Contemporary China 12.36 (2003): 419. 1994, Tibet was divided into four economic zones in order to make better use of the land based on the different resources of the region. Many Tibetan neighborhoods in

Lhasa were demolished in order to provide modern housing and smoother traffic for Han Chinese. All these Tibet projects were through the PRC and further demonstrate the lack of control the Tibetan’s have over their land.

As concerns over the environmental impact of China’s policies towards Tibet increased, China promoted campaigns aimed at repressing Tibetans. The Chinese government closed schools and restricted monk and nun numbers to 46,000.

Tibetan officials who could not write in Chinese were fired and 13,000 Tibetans were sent to China in order to obtain skills to develop Tibet economically and culturally.42

Arthur N. Holcombe, Congressional-Executive Commission on China, explained that although the statistical data provided by China indicated growth in Tibet there were some distortions to the data.43 For example, according to China’s statistics bureau, fiscal incomes in Tibet hit 133 million

US dollars in the first six months of the year. This is a

27 percent rise from a year ago. The Chinese government has claimed it is due to the rise of investment, consumption,

42 ibid., p. 421. 43 “An NGO’s View on Development in Tibet,” Arthur N. Holcombe; 04 March 2007; from International Campaign for Tibet, 12 June 2002; http://www.savetibet.org/news/newsitem.php?id=262. and export trade in the region.44 However, Tibet’s rapid employment income growth resides in Tibet’s urban sector driven by Han and Hui Muslim populations. Government investment in this area is given priority over rural areas.

Ethnic Tibetans still have to depend on the cultivation of crops and animals for food. Furthermore, Holcombe concluded that the rapid development in urban areas has created an economic gap between the rich and poor. Traditional Tibetan enterprises have to compete with Han businesses in urban areas.

In the past, the PRC explained the need for urbanization of the Tibetan population and Tibetan urbanization has shown no trend of slowing down. In early

2000, the People's Daily, cited urbanization was needed for the region and that investigations revealed maintaining a primitive isolated lifestyle was an obstacle to progress.

If Tibet were to benefit from the globalization process it needed to modernize. The People’s Daily also cited that studies showed living standards could greatly be improved through a market economy with access to social services.45

Then in 2002, Chinese officials boasted that the Tibet

44 “Tibet fiscal income up 26.7%,” 05 September 2007; from CCTV.com, 30 July 2007; http://www.cctv.com/program/bizchina/20070730/113612.shtml. 45 “Scholar Suggests Accelerated Urbanization in Tibet,” 12 September 2007; from People’s Daily, 20 April 2000; http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/english/200004/20/eng20000420_39353.h tml. region had two cities, 72 counties and prefectures, and 112 towns. National census data revealed that the urban population in Tibet reached 495,300 which accounted for

18.9 percent of the total population.46 Last year, a relocation project moved 290,000 Tibetans into urban homes which is 10% of the whole Tibetan population. Critics of the location policy cited that China had not researched its urbanization policy and the effects it would have on employment and Tibetan culture.47

China has also made its way into Tibetan religious affairs by electing their own Lama’s.48 According to Tibetan tradition, the Panchen Lama possesses the power to select the new Dalai Lama after the Dalai dies. The Panchen Lama himself is found through a process of reincarnation in which his soul is found manifested in a young boy. The search of the new Panchen takes years and the leadership is confirmed once a boy is found who can recognize the past

Panchen Lama’s possessions as his own.

China has disrupted this ancient tradition. Hu Jintao declared martial law on Tibet in 1989 after which the

46 “Roundup: Urbanization Arrives in Tibet,” 12 September 2007; from ChinaGate.com.CN, 2002; http://us.tom.com/english/2288.htm. 47 “China's relocation of rural Tibetans,” 05 September 2007; from BBC News, 13 August 2007; http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia- pacific/6944342.stm 48 “The End of Tibet,” Joshua Kurlantzick, 04 March 2007; from Rolling Stone, 24 Jan 2007, 12:58 GMT; http://www.rollingstone.com/news/story/13247913/the_end_of_tibet/print. Panchen Lama had died. 49 Beijing created their own process to pick their own Panchen Lama by bypassing Tibetan’s ancient methods. In a break from tradition, Beijing set up their own ceremony in which they forced senior monks to gather inside one of Lhasa’s holiest temples, Jokhang.

There the monks were forced to pick from an urn the name of the next Panchen Lama. A boy named Gyaincain Norbu was picked who was conveniently waiting in the next room already dressed in golden robes and a hat. Norbu has since declared that the PRC provides favorable conditions for the

Buddhist religion. Before the ceremony had taken place the

Dalai Lama and other monks had already picked their own

Panchen Lama, Gedhun Choekyi Nyima, who was later abducted by Chinese authorities. In front of television cameras in

November 1995, monks were told to denounce Nyima.

Currently, Nyima is said to live under guard in Beijing and is sometimes smuggled into Tibet by Chinese officials in order to visit his family.

There has also been indication that the next spiritual successor of the Dalai Lama may no longer be decided by

Tibetan tradition. On August 3, 2007, China’s State

Administration for Religious Affairs (SARA) issued statements that the government wanted to institutionalize

49 ibid., http://www.rollingstone.com/news/story/13247913/the_end_of_tibet/print. the reincarnations of Buddhas.50 These requirements were issued on September 1st. One of the regulations requires that the temple the Buddhas can reincarnate in must be registered venues that are able to foster the living

Buddha. The reincarnation applications then have to be submitted to SARA, the state council, and the respective provincial government for approval. According to SARA, the selection of the Buddhas are for the purposes of solidifying national unity and solidarity of ethnic groups therefore the process should not be influenced by outside groups who are not part of China. SARA has also said that the regulations are made in favor of Tibetan Buddhism because it guarantees that normal religious activities are protected in accordance with national law and that these regulations will not interfere with the pure internal religious affairs.

The new regulations do not mention the Dalai Lama by name but do prevent followers in exile from having a say in the process.51 Essentially, the PRC gets the final word on whether the new living Buddha is a genuine reincarnation.

50 “Reincarnation of Tibetan living Buddhas must get government approval,” Xinhua, 5 September 2007; from People's Daily Online: English, 03 August 2007; http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90001/90776/6231524.html. 51 “New Chinese rules on Dalai Lama,” Michael Bristow, 05 September 2007; from BBC News, 1 September 2007; http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia- pacific/6973605.stm. Many Tibetans outside China say that the new regulations will not affect the selection of the next Dalai Lama while the Dalai Lama has claimed he may have to be born outside of Tibet if he is not allowed to return. There have also been conflicting reports stating that the Dalai Lama has hinted he would “be the last in his line.”52

Conclusion

It is difficult to imagine that the future of stability in China will be determined by Tibetan affairs given that the international community has shown a more favorable stance towards China, that Tibetans are becoming more reconciliatory towards China, and that China has successfully integrated Tibet with the mainland. China does not need to worry about Tibet. Tibetan uprisings are not the bulk of China’s problem and seem to be less of a concern as China grows as an international power. Political conditions in China favor Han Chinese and Tibetans will have to get better organized if they are to seek any sort of independence. This is unlikely given that the Dalai Lama has mentioned that Tibet should be more adjoined with China despite being the figurehead of Tibetan Buddhism. The PRC has already selected Tibetan’s own Panchen Lama and will likely select the new Dalai Lama once the current one

52 Jason Lee Steorts, "In China's Tibet," National Review Vol. 59, issue. 15 (2007): 25. passes away. As China grows into its international role,

Tibet issues will continue to be a minor issue.