______ROS Users Guide Chapter 30 ______Demand Analysis

Applications for Forest Plans and Recreation Site Master Planning USDA Forest Service

December 15, 2008 Draft

1 Demand Introduction This chapter outlines the process for estimating recreation demand in a practical manner for application in forest planning and other processes such as Capital Improvement Projects (CIP) and management plans. When the forest is using this process to focus on analysis beyond the forest plan, the main data sources discussed below can be dissected for specific activities or segments of the recreating public. Additionally, greater emphasis on other studies that pertain to specific activity or local issues will be needed.

Process Framework The framework to analyze recreation demand is: 1. Use a limited number of data sources. The two primary data sources include Resources Planning Act (RPA) and National Visitor Use Monitoring (NVUM). Limiting data sources will reduce confusion and promote national consistency. 2. Incorporate spatial analysis. Spatial analysis will clarify data through visual representation and will aid in communication with the public and other providers. 3. Focus efforts on no more than 20 recreation opportunities. By focusing on a limited number of recreation opportunities, forests will be able to use limited resources and concentrate on high priority recreation opportunities instead of losing focus and strategy on all recreation opportunities. 4. Engage the public. Interfacing with the public early and often with focused efforts will lead to greater success in understanding and strategizing around demand. In addition, when using the demand analysis for forest planning purposes, documented public participation will aid in meeting requirements in the 2008 Planning Rule. 5. Incorporate other providers. Considering all providers in the market area will aid in assessing the appropriate facilities and services to be offered by the forest.

Definition of Demand Analysis There are numerous definitions and concepts for the term demand; however, for the purposes of this process, the practical definition of demand analysis is: “An assessment of the recreation opportunities and settings desired by the public for a given market area and tradeoffs to optimize beneficial outcomes.”

Recreation Opportunities Recreation opportunities, rather than recreation activities, are the focus of this demand analysis process and is described below and in figure 1:1

Research has shown that recreationists not only seek to participate in recreation activities, but also seek specific recreation settings in order to enjoy a special kind of recreation experience and subsequent benefits. These four components (i.e., activities, settings, experience, benefits) constitute a recreation opportunity; that is, the opportunity for a person to participate in a particular recreation activity in a specific setting in order to enjoy a particular recreation experience and the benefits this affords.

1 Haas, G., Aukerman, R., Lovejoy, V., and Welch, D. Water Recreation Opportunity Spectrum (WROS) Users’ Guidebook. United States Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, Office of Program and Policy Services, Denver Federal Center, Lakewood, Colorado. July, 2004.

2 Figure 1

An example of recreation opportunity vs. recreation activity is this: One family might desire camping in a modern, full service campground on a reservoir in order to spend quality time with the family, to rest and relax, and to see nature’s beauty. Another family might desire camping in a rural location where they can test their fishing skills, enjoy solitude, and see nature’s beauty. Both families want to go camping, but in very different settings leading to different kinds of experiences and benefits; that is, they are seeking different kinds of recreation opportunities, desired experiences and outcomes.

The emphasis for this demand analysis process is on recreation opportunities not just recreation activities. By focusing on recreation opportunities, managers address the entirety of recreation. Data Sources With the multitude of studies available, it can be difficult for a manager to determine which studies to use and how to use them. This process focuses on two main studies for activities: 1. Resources Planning Act (RPA) data that shows expected future demand for activity participation by residents of the market area. 2. National Visitor Use Monitoring (NVUM) that shows current consumption or activity participation on a particular national forest.

Resources Planning Act (Market Area) The Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment reports2 on the status and trends of the Nation’s renewable resources on all forests and rangelands, as required by the Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resources Planning Act of 1974. Renewable resources evaluated in RPA Assessment reports include fish and wildlife, water, forests, range, wilderness, and outdoor recreation opportunities, as well as the trends associated with these resources. The RPA data uses the latest National Survey on Recreation and the Environment (NSRE) database as one of the foundational data sources; therefore, NSRE findings are already incorporated into the RPA data. This process will use the RPA data to provide the basis of quantitative information for outdoor recreation demand forecasts for all forests in the agency. The data is:  Scientifically credible  Nationally consistent and can be used for national data calls 2 Final datasets will be available no later than Fall 2009.

3  Tied with Forest Service Strategic Plan  Useful and practical for the field  Integrates NSRE and NVUM data where applicable

The RPA data can provide typical quantitative information found in a demand analysis as well as specialized information useful for forests:  Population and demographics (current situation, recent trends and future social change)  Natural resource values in modern society  Relationships between social trends and natural lands  Outdoor recreation, tourism and amenity migration trends and projections  Wilderness and other protected lands

The RPA data is expected Summer 2009 and will become available to forests in the form of a “Decisions System Model,” which is a computer model that takes complex demographic and demand data and translates it into information applicable for the manager. It will produce a list of activities that are important to the market area (a set of counties that comprise the primary users of the forest as shown in the figure 2 below) in terms of current and expected activity participation given the expected changes in the population. It will also give a profile of the typical user for each activity, and then a percent increase or decrease for that activity. More Decision System Model information is included in Appendix A.

NVUM (Forest) The NVUM database is both an inventory of existing forest visitor use and a monitoring tool that assesses visitor satisfaction with and use of existing recreation supply. In addition, economic information (visitor spending in the local area) is available. The NVUM data is the best data source to show what is currently happening on a particular forest. This information describes the current situation on the forest and serves as baseline information to contrast against forecasted data.

4 Figure 2 Market Area Example

The NVUM 2.0 web-based application3 includes the results of “Round 1” surveys with “Round 2” data incorporated as it becomes available. The application includes features to extract tabular data, produce formatted reports, and create maps and graphs. More NVUM information is included in Appendix B. Spatial Analysis Much of this information can be displayed spatially to present the information in a more productive format. With a visual representation of the data, patterns can emerge that allow managers to segment the forest into recreation opportunities. The resulting map can also be used as a discussion point with the public and other providers.

Each forest will work with GIS personnel to include the following layers:  Counties and characteristics of residents in the market area  Population centers  Economic information  Roads that connect those population centers to the forest  ROS- A three-level composite mapping process to develop a zoning framework for outdoor recreation managers to answer questions concerning both allocation and management of opportunities for recreation and tourism. The ROS zoning classifications can be linked to specific outdoor activity types and provide common terminology for comparison with supply.

3 The NVUM 2.0 application is still under development at the time of writing this report and is expected Fall 2009.

5  NVUM pre-work data: Survey sites and their use levels can be added to highlight the recreation hotspots on the forest and what activities are occurring in those recreation hotspots.  Recreation infrastructure (from Infra): Recreation sites that facilitate various activities and characteristics of those recreation sites will expand upon the use in those areas.  Other relevant layers that are available for use and can be applied: o Wilderness/Road-less boundaries o Water ways, Wild and Scenic Rivers and Scenic Byways corridors o Travel Management layers produced from that process, plus Nat’l Trails o Ownership boundaries, and other special designations

As shown in figure 3 below, data from the market area (RPA Data) and the forest (NVUM) can be displayed on a map to demonstrate how demographics, economic information, and activity participation in the market area can affect recreation opportunities on the forest.

Figure 3 Spatial Analysis Example

Focusing Most forests do not have the resources to do an extensive analysis on all the possibilities of the forest; therefore, the forest must focus and strategize on a limited number of activities. A forest should limit their analysis of recreation opportunities to no more than 20.4 The Decision System Model uses scientifically credible data to provide an initial set of activities and narrow the focus. This initial look can be combined with management input, public input, special or unique opportunities, resource compatibility, as well as other factors to determine the list of key recreation opportunities for any expanded research.

4 Glenn Hass recommends limiting the number of recreation opportunities to less than 20 in his Estimating Future Recreation Demand: A Decision Guide for the Practitioner manual he wrote for the Bureau Of Reclamation (pg.21). The concept of ‘not being all things to everyone on every acre’ applies to the planning efforts as well.

6 Engage the Public Public engagement is very helpful to the demand analysis process. In addition, the 2008 Planning Rule has an increased expectation for public participation throughout the process. With the main data efforts being satisfied from a limited number of data sources, managers can focus more time to interact with the public and build relationships. Considering restrictions from the Paperwork Reduction Act,5 public meetings and scoping letters are preferred methods to receive comments and share work with the public. Much of the information received from the public will be anecdotal in nature; however, this can still be very productive. The aforementioned data and spatial analysis can be shared with the public early in the process and provide a starting point to interface with the public.

When the demand analysis is being used for forest planning, the 2008 Planning Rule requires that the forest conduct public participation meetings throughout the life of the planning process. Activities that could aid the demand analysis in these meetings/workshops include:  Discuss the data and spatial analysis  Receive comments on the issues  Expand upon key recreation opportunities that were identified earlier in the process  Invite other providers to present summary findings for their lands  Invite other experts to talk about specific issues or concerns  Invite local city/county/state tourism bureaus to share their knowledge

The GIS layers mentioned above could easily be turned into a Google Earth file that could be shared with the public. This Google Earth file can be posted on websites of the forest, other providers, partners, and so forth. A computer can be made available for public use in lobbies of offices so people without computers have the ability to interact with the map as well as supply feedback about the planning process outside of a public meeting. Other Providers This process allows consideration of how best to complement the recreation services and facilities of other agencies and the private sector in your market area to maximize effective use of federal funding and enhance economic growth for community sustainability. The forest will review other suppliers to determine their offerings in the market area, aggregated by ROS class if possible. This information can be placed in a GIS layer and added to the map, as it will be useful for analysis and discussion with the public and other providers.

For the key recreation opportunities identified earlier in this process, forests will need to focus on other providers in the market area that supply similar recreation opportunities. Forests should invite other providers to discuss these issues and their experiences. This will promote dialogue between providers, share data, foster relationships, and increase collaborative efforts. Other providers should be invited to attend and when suitable present at public meetings. They can speak to the patterns of use, trends, visitor preferences, and so forth they are witnessing on their lands. This also highlights for the public the connection between the Forest Service and other providers in providing the universe of recreation opportunities in the market area.

5 http://fsweb.wo.fs.fed.us/orms/infocollectindex.shtml

7 Other Research Numerous studies can be helpful in this analysis process. While the majority of information can be gathered from RPA & NVUM, a forest may want to address other studies that pertain to specific activities or local issues. These other studies can be beneficial for expanding the depth of research. It is possible that additional studies may offer contradicting (perceived or realistic) information compared to what is offered by the two primary data sources. Forests are encouraged to contact the authors of these other studies when this occurs.

Because studies can vary in type and quality of information, only a brief overview is presented below, with those studies in bold identifying the more complementary studies:

 Statewide Comprehensive Outdoor Recreation Plan (SCORP). Most states generate a detailed report for the universe of outdoor recreation opportunities in the state. This report is a comprehensive look at all providers in the state and may offer trend analysis, supply inventory, local issues of concern, and other information that could be useful for the forest.  State and local tourism studies. These studies generally look at emphasis areas to promote tourism. These studies often use surveys and other primary research methods to gather data on a local level, so these can be great supplemental sources of information. It is also important to stay abreast with current emphasis areas, as national forests are often the recipients of the tourists who were promoted to the state through these efforts.  County economic development studies. These studies will help with local level planning for new housing developments, job opportunities, and so forth that could attract more residents that could alter the existing population in size and composition.  Special Use Permit data. This data provided from O/Gs can be useful for visitor numbers and characteristics. Ski areas generally have use numbers that could add to a study.  National Recreation Reservation Service (NRRS) data. The NRRS data can be very helpful in generating data concerning occupancy rates, visitor origin, length of stay, group size, and so forth. Although this data only concerns a small number of activities, it does provide some detailed information about those activities.6  Compliance counts. Use patterns can be ascertained from routine compliance counts. This information can inform managers of recreation hotspots on the forest.  Industry studies. The outdoor industry can provide some insights that are specific to their industry in terms of trends, hotspots, user profile, and so forth. The private sector does not have many of the restrictions the government has and is able to be more responsive and conduct primary research.  Scientific studies. There is a wealth of scientific studies on general and specific issues, national and local scales, and so forth. This body of research will vary in its utility, but studies focusing on key recreation opportunities can expand the existing data.  Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) studies. These mandated and therefore plentiful FERC studies can often provide a great deal of information for water-based recreation.  Individual management plans. Review past work to focus on specific activities or sites that need increased research.  Census Bureau County Business Patterns. County Business Patterns is an annual series that provides subnational economic data by industry. The series is useful for studying the economic

6 Additional work could become available to link NVUM and NRRS data for refining information available to forests.

8 activity of small areas; analyzing economic changes over time; and as a benchmark for statistical series, surveys, and databases between economic censuses. Businesses use the data for analyzing market potential, measuring the effectiveness of sales and advertising programs, setting sales quotas, and developing budgets. Government agencies use the data for administration and planning. Resources TIPS- Technical Information for Planning http://www.fs.fed.us/TIPS/ The NVUM 2.0 application will be available from the following website: http://fsweb.nris.fs.fed.us/installation/index.php State tourism websites for all 50 states http://www.usa.gov/Citizen/Topics/Travel_Tourism/State_Tourism.shtml Industry Studies Sporting Goods Manufactures Association (has links to numerous activity specific industry studies as well) http://www.sgma.com/ Outdoor Industry Association http://www.outdoorindustry.org Census Bureau County Business Patterns http://www.census.gov/epcd/cbp/index.html SCORPS are generally available from the state parks system- a web search will generally find the appropriate one.

9 Appendix A- Decision System Model The Decision System Model consists of the following primary steps 7: 1. Population Analysis - Summarizes population characteristics in the market area (1.5-2 hour drive from the forest). a. Population b. Population density c. Population increase d. Fastest growing counties 2. Recreation Participation Analysis- Summarizes overall outdoor recreation participation for the market area in terms of current and expected activity participation based on certain demographic, economic, and activity preference shifts in the market area. 3. Analysis of Highest Growth Outdoor Recreation Activities- Reviews which outdoor recreation activities in the market area are growing fastest in terms of total participation. 4. Detailed Recreation Participation Analysis by Demographic Strata – Overviews population composition and expected growth of 7 major demographic groups (age, gender, race, income, household type, urban-rural, and disability status) and preference for forest-based outdoor recreation activities. 5. Ad hoc Activities– Allows the user to retrieve information for specific activities that may not have surfaced in the model. For instance, there may be activities that have low participation rates, but the forest serves as a major provider of that opportunity such as cross-country skiing- it may have low participation in the market area, but the forest is the only place that has reliable snow to serve that small segment. For these types of activities, forests can still view the applicable data.

The Decision System Model will deliver key recreation activities with a profile of the typical user for each activity, and a forecasted user profile as well as a percent increase or decrease for that activity.

Table 1 Decision System Model Output EXAMPLE Activity Current User Current Forecasted Forecasted % Increase Profile Market Area User Profile Market Area or Decrease Participation. Participation in Activity Participation

View wildlife 55-64 yrs old 53% 64+ yrs old 60% 7% 54% Female 58% Female Household Size: 4 Household Size: 3 83% White 74% White Income: $40-49K Income: $50-59K 64% Urban 78% Urban

7 The final decision system model is expected Fall 2009. This will be available through the Forest Service Intranet.

10 Appendix B- NVUM Information The NVUM 2.0 web-based application8 can be used to generate tables for a single forest, a grouping of multiple forests, or an entire Region. At a minimum, the following tables should be reviewed and incorporated into the process9:

Table 2: National Forest Visitor use estimate Table 5: Percent of National Forest Visits by gender Table 6: Percent of National Forest Visits by race/ethnicity Table 7: Percent of National Forest Visits by age Table 8: Zip Codes, states, and counties of survey respondents Table 9: Percent of National Forest Visits by distance traveled Table 10: Visit duration Table 12: Percent of National Forest Visits by annual visit Table 13: Activity participation Table 14: Percent of National Forest Visits indicating use of special facilities or areas used Table 15: Distribution of National Forest Visits by market segment Table 16: Average spending of National Forest Visitor groups by market segment, dollars per group per trip Table 42 Overall Satisfaction for visits to National Forest recreation facilities and services Table 22: Percent of Site Visits by crowding rating by Site Type

The NVUM application handbook provides a resource to help managers interpret the NVUM table variables and understand how to use the data. An example is below: Table 13: Activity participation on Sherwood National Forest Description Visitor activity participation such as that provided in Table 13 is a good indicator of the types of recreation opportunities and settings in current demand by recreation visitors. Column 1 lists the specific outdoor recreation activity measured. First, survey respondents were asked to pick all the recreation activities they had participated in during their current National Forest Visit. Columns 2 and 3 summarize this information in percent and list the total number of respondents who picked this activity. Survey respondents could pick more than one of the 26 activities measured so column 2 may total over 100%. Survey respondents were asked to select just one of their activities as their main reason for the National Forest Visit. These responses are summarized in columns 4 and 5 as percentages and the total number of respondents who picked this activity as their main activity. In some cases respondents picked more than one main activity, so column 4 may total more than 100%. Information in Table 13 is available as forest, regional, and national level summaries.

8 The NVUM 2.0 application is still under development at the time of writing this report and is expected Fall 2009. 9 Additional tables may be available in addition to or in lieu of the tables mentioned. Guidance will be provided to the field as more information becomes available.

11 Table 13 Activity participation Activity % Participation Participation (n) % Main Activity Main Activity (n) Developed Camping 3.6 .6 16 Primitive Camping 2.6 .3 3 Backpacking 6.6 0 0 Resort Use 2.2 .4 2 Picnicking 11.6 1.4 18 Viewing Natural Features 48.0 10.8 45 Visiting Historic Sites 15.3 4.2 6 Nature Center Activities 1.2 0 0 Nature Study 5.4 0 0 Relaxing 36.3 4.5 33 Fishing 6.0 2.5 45 Hunting 32.0 29.3 120 OHV Use 9.6 2.6 6 Driving for Pleasure 28.4 1.0 11 Snowmobiling 2.8 .8 10 Motorized Water Activities 1.6 .9 21 Other Motorized Activity .1 .1 0 Hiking / Walking 40.6 5.6 28 Cross-country Skiing .4 .2 4 Other Non-motorized 14.2 13.0 94 Gathering Forest Products 4.0 .7 5 Viewing Wildlife 47.4 2.6 8

Interpreting the Results Table 13 indicates that viewing natural features (48.0%), viewing wildlife (47.4%), relaxing (36.3%), hunting (32%) and driving for pleasure (28.4%) were the top five recreation activities (column 2, rows 6, 26, 10, 12, and 14) pursued by survey respondents on the Sherwood National Forest. When survey respondents were asked to identify their main recreation activity for their current National Forest Visit their top five choices were hunting (29.3%), other nonmotorized activities (13%), viewing natural features (10.8%), hiking/walking (5.6%), and relaxing (4.5%) (column 4, rows 12, 24, 6, 18, and 10). Clearly hunting is a primary destination activity on the Sherwood National Forest because 32% of all respondents said they had participated in hunting (column 2, row 12) and 29.3% of respondents said it was their main activity (column 4, row 12) during their National Forest Visit. Activity participation and main activity information are very important for recreation and forest planning. This information is one of the best indicators of CURRENT recreation [consumption]. Reviewing current activity participation information may reveal previously unknown destination type recreation demand such as snowmobiling or hunting.

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