Population Projections

POPULATION PROJECTIONS

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has released 2012 based population projections. They project what may happen to the population if current trends in births, deaths and migration continue.

The 2012 based population projections suggest that Gateshead’s population will grow to 211,500 by 2037 (please note all figures in this briefing are rounded to the nearest hundred as required by ONS). These replace the interim 2011 based projections released last year which only covered a 10 year period.

Population Projections - Gateshead Gateshead’s population is projected to increase by 11,300 (5.6%) between 2012 and 2037 to 211,500. The rate of growth is slightly lower than was projected in the previous 2011 based projections – for example between 2012 and 2021 the increase is 4,900 (2.4%) compared with the previous projected increase of 6,200 (3.1%). The base population in 2012 is also slightly lower than was previously projected – 200,200 compared with 200,900 as illustrated in Figure 1 below.

Figure 1 Gateshead Population Projections – 2012 and 2011 Based Compared

Which age groups are mainly responsible for the increase? The main reason for the projected increase is an ageing population. It is projected that by 2037 there will be an additional 16,400 aged 65 or over, an increase of 45% as shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2 Gateshead 2012 Based Population Projections Pyramid – 2012 and 2037 Compared

What is driving the increase? Both natural change i.e. more births than deaths, and migration i.e. more people moving into Gateshead than out, are projected to increase the population throughout the 25 year projection period. Over the next 10 years natural change is projected to have the largest impact (Natural change 2 : 1 Migration). However, this changes in the final 8 years of the projection period (Natural change 1 : 4 Migration).

What is happening to the working age population? The working age population is projected to grow by 4% to 2037 from 124,300 to 129,300. This projected growth is due to the increase in the retirement age, which will stand at age 67 for both men and women in 2037. Without this, the working age population would be projected to decline by 2.9% over this period.

Despite the growth of the working age population, the older age groups are growing at a faster rate and so working age people are projected to represent a smaller proportion of the total population i.e. 61% instead of 62%.

What about children and young people? In total, the number of children and young people aged 0-19 is projected to decrease by 1,100 or more than 2% from 45,000 in 2012 to 43,900 in 2037. However, this is not a uniform decrease across the age band, with much of the decrease from those aged 0- 6 (-1,400), a smaller decrease in those aged 14-19 (-300), but an increase in those aged 7-13 (+600) (see Figure 3). Figure 3 Gateshead 2012 Based Population Projections Change since % Change 2012 2025 2037 2012 since 2012 0-4 11,900 11,200 10,800 -1,100 -9% 5-12 16,700 18,000 17,000 +300 +2% 13-19 16,400 16,400 16,100 -300 -2% 20-34 39,400 38,500 39,400 -0 -0% 35-49 41,200 39,000 40,000 -1,200 -3% 50-64 38,100 39,600 35,300 -2,700 -7% 65-84 32,000 37,500 42,900 +10,900 +34% 85+ 4,400 6,700 10,000 +5,600 +126% 16-64 128,300 126,600 124,300 -4,100 -3% All Ages 200,200 207,000 211,500 +11,300 +6% Figures may not sum due to rounding Population Projections - The North East and Tyne and Wear The North East and Tyne and Wear are both projected to increase in population by around 6% over the next 25 years as shown in Figure 4 below. The population of the North East is projected to increase by 163,500 from 2,602,300 to 2,765,800. However, at 6% this is the smallest increase of all regions and the North East would remain the smallest English region. The population of Tyne and Wear is projected to increase by 71,600 from 1,108,200 to 1,179,800. The projected increases would be largely due to an ageing population, with an increase in older people of retirement age. Figure 4 2012 Based Population Projections Change since % Change 2012 2025 2037 2012 since 2012 England 53,493,700 58,430,500 62,166,000 +8,672,300 +16% North East 2,602,300 2,700,400 2,765,800 +163,500 +6% Durham 514,300 540,100 556,800 +42,500 +8% Northumberland 316,100 322,600 324,700 +8,600 +3% Tyne and Wear 1,108,200 1,149,200 1,179,800 +71,600 +6% Gateshead 200,200 207,000 211,500 +11,300 +6% Newcastle 282,400 293,400 305,100 +22,700 +8% North Tyneside 201,400 216,600 226,100 +24,700 +12% South Tyneside 148,400 153,400 156,600 +8,200 +6% Sunderland 275,700 278,700 280,500 +4,800 +2% Figures may not sum due to rounding Within Tyne and Wear, all of the districts are projected to increase in population by 2037. North Tyneside is projected to see the largest increase in relation to its existing population of around 12%, followed by Newcastle at 8%, South Tyneside and Gateshead at 6%, and Sunderland with just a 2% increase.

As in Gateshead, the population changes in the other Tyne and Wear districts are particularly due to increasing older populations, however, both Newcastle and North Tyneside also show significant increases in the younger age groups, particularly in those aged 5-14.

Over the full 25 year projection period Gateshead’s increase is projected to be due to both natural change and migration. Looking across the rest of Tyne and Wear, the increase in Newcastle is projected to be primarily due to natural change rather than migration, whereas in North and South Tyneside the reverse is true. In all Tyne and Wear districts, the impact of natural change is projected to decrease towards the end of the 25 year projection period.

What do the latest population projections mean for Gateshead? As noted above, the latest projections suggest that working age people will represent a smaller proportion of the total population in future. This presents challenges to the future economic sustainability of Gateshead. However, it is important to note that ONS’ projections are based on the continuation of past trends. Given the sluggish economic conditions in recent years (which can be assumed to impact negatively on migration into the area), it is perhaps not surprising that ONS’ latest population projections represent relatively modest population growth. In this respect ONS provide a significant disclaimer to accompany their projections:

“The projections are not forecasts and do not take any account of future government policies, changing economic circumstances or the capacity of an area to accommodate the change in population. They provide an indication of the future size and age structure of the population if recent demographic trends continued.”

It is therefore important that these projections are viewed against the backdrop of conditions in previous years, and that changing conditions be taken into account when planning for future needs in Gateshead. Through the implementation of various initiatives aimed at attracting jobs and encouraging economic growth, it is likely that population growth, particularly among working age residents, can be higher than indicated by these latest projections - to a level that is more capable of delivering a sustainable future for Gateshead.

During the hearings of the Gateshead and Newcastle Core Strategy and Urban Core Plan examination, both Councils have pointed out that 2012- based population projections do not align with the Councils’ independent economic growth projections, which anticipate an additional 8,000 jobs in Gateshead over 2010 to 2030 plan period. To prepare a plan that is in accordance with the 2012-based projections would mean planning for a sharp decline in working age residents by 2030, jeopardising the sustainable economic future of Gateshead. National guidance makes clear that when trying to understand the number of homes an area needs, official projections are only a starting point which can be adjusted to reflect local circumstances or anticipated change in economic circumstances. It is important to take into account all data, not just official projections, in order to provide a balanced and thorough reflection when planning for the future needs and prosperity of Gateshead. For these reasons, the Council proposes to plan for more sustainable levels of growth that are in keeping with ONS’ previous, 2011-based population projections. When these projections are extended to cover the plan period, they anticipate population growth of around 13,600 between 2010 and 2030.